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The 2024 European elections have begun

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For three days (6-9 June), EU citizens will go to the polls to elect the European Parliament, the 720-member legislature of the European Union.

According to the latest polls, the ‘centre’ forces will continue to hold a majority in the EP in 2024. The ‘centre-right’ European People’s Party (EPP), led by the German Christian Democrats, is in first place with 182 seats, followed by the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats.

This centrist majority, which has dominated the EP for the past five years, together with the liberal Renew Europe group with 81 seats, is expected to win 399 out of 720 seats.

Despite disagreements over how to deal with the ‘far right’, as the EPP has opened the door to close cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party (FdI) and its EP affiliate, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), these three groups have made it clear that they intend to stick to their tripartite coalition.

This means that they will retain control of the EP’s policy-making cycle and have a say in key internal decisions such as the budget.

While both the EPP and the S&D will roughly retain their current seats, Renew Europe, which includes Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, will lose 20 seats, from 102 to 81, the group’s worst result since its creation in 2019.

This leaves Renew in a fight for third place against the right-wing ECR and the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID), which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).

Big losses for the Greens

The losses can be partly explained by the departure of MEPs and the leadership of the Spanish liberal party Ciudadanos (formerly the largest national delegation in the group with eight seats) to join Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (EPP).

At the same time, the Liberals are also facing heavy losses in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition fell from 23 to 15 seats.

According to the latest projections, the ECR is expected to win 79 seats (12.2%) and the ID 69 (8.5%). The Greens would win 55 seats with 7.7% of the vote and the Left 38 seats with 6.4% of the vote.

The number of seats the Greens are expected to win is 17 less than in the previous period. The biggest loss is expected for the German Greens, who are part of the German traffic light coalition.

The ECR increases its number of seats from 68 to 79, while the ID gains 10 more seats, despite having recently expelled the AfD, the largest national party (expected to win 15 seats), due to a series of scandals.

The right will get a chance to block legislation

The ID and ECR will give the EPP the chance to block legislation by ganging up against the Socialists and Liberals, as they tried to do in the last parliament on the nature restoration law. Moreover, this time the right-wing bloc will have enough seats to gain a majority if necessary.

With Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen and Polish opposition leader Mateusz Morawiecki all calling for some kind of right-wing alliance to balance the pro-European forces, speculation is rife about an imminent shift on the hemisphere’s ‘far right’.

While some would like to see a right-wing super-group that would bring together the ECR and the ID, making the far right the second largest political force with around 160 seats, such an option seems unlikely due to wide disagreements on policy areas and long-standing internal bickering between national parties.

A new left-wing group could also enter the EP

The Left is set to win 38 seats, more or less the same number as now, but with limited room for manoeuvre for broader coalitions. Moreover, the group’s future is uncertain.

In Germany, the new party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) recently confirmed that it had enough support to form a new left-wing group in the EP.

The BSW is reported to be in talks with organisations such as LFI and SMER, the ruling party in Slovakia.

The largest national group is expected to come from France

The top national delegations will reshape the balance of power in the EP and bring new priorities to the legislative work.

Ahead of the vote on Thursday 6 June, Europe Elects’ latest predictions for Euractiv reveal what could happen in the coming period.

According to the latest predictions, the top five national delegations could be the French RN with 31 seats, the German CDU/CSU with 28 seats, the Spanish Partido Popular (PP) with 23 seats, and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Poland’s centre-right Civic Coalition (KO), both in fifth place with 20 seats each.

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Critical day in Germany: SPD urges FDP to ‘act responsibly’

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is set to meet with Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) on Tuesday and Wednesday for high-stakes crisis talks aimed at defusing a growing budget conflict within the three-party governing coalition.

“Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, I believe that this country deserves responsible governance. We’ll see in the next few days if everyone can muster the strength to actually achieve that,” Saskia Esken, leader of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), told reporters on Monday.

Last Friday, a policy paper was leaked in which Lindner, also leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), proposed tax cuts and the relaxation of existing climate policies. His proposals, aligned with the FDP’s balanced budget approach, clash directly with the SPD and Green Party priorities.

The leaked 18-page document has drawn comparisons to a 1982 proposal by former Economics Minister Otto Graf Lambsdorff (FDP), which ultimately contributed to the collapse of the SPD-led government. The so-called Lambsdorff Paper cleared the path for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) to assume power, leading to Helmut Kohl’s 16-year tenure as Chancellor.

Early elections or minority government?

Several crisis meetings are scheduled between Scholz, Lindner, and Habeck, concluding on Wednesday, 6 November. Tomorrow evening, the Coalition Committee—the government’s highest council—will convene to determine if the coalition partners will agree on a unified plan or go their separate ways. If they do part, options include early elections—potentially by spring—or an SPD-Green minority government if the FDP exits the coalition.

FDP Secretary-General Bijan Djir-Sarai clarified, “The chancellor and finance minister have committed to no spontaneous decisions before Wednesday.”

Central to these discussions is parliamentary approval of the 2025 budget, which must close a shortfall of at least €2.4 billion and agree on steps to stimulate Germany’s struggling economy.

Public sentiment: Half of Germans support early elections

A poll by public broadcaster ARD last week indicated that nearly three out of four Germans are worried about the economic situation, with half favoring early elections. Satisfaction with the ruling coalition has hit a low of 14%.

A potential Donald Trump victory in the US elections could also impact the political landscape, posing a fresh challenge for Germany’s coalition leaders. Omid Nouripour, the outgoing leader of the Greens, emphasized the need to address US election outcomes in Wednesday’s coalition meeting: “This will have serious implications for our economy, security, and Europe’s military dynamics.”

Scholz maintains a pragmatic stance

On Monday, government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit confirmed that tripartite talks among Scholz, Habeck, and Lindner will continue throughout the week. “There is intense work underway to form an ‘overall economic strategy,’” Hebestreit noted.

When asked if his government was at risk, Scholz, who met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin on Monday, replied, “The government will do its job.” Scholz stressed that “this is not about ideology; it’s about pragmatism.”

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German government to meet on economy amid coalition tensions

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to meet with his two coalition partners to seek common ground after each presented conflicting plans to address the country’s struggling economy.

On Friday, a document leaked by Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats (FDP), a junior partner in the coalition, sparked controversy in Berlin. The document, advocating tax cuts and fiscal restraint, was seen as a counter to the investment plan recently proposed by Robert Habeck, the Green Economy Minister.

Attempts to reconcile differences before Wednesday’s meeting

The latest dispute among coalition partners—the FDP, Greens, and SPD—over economic and industrial policy has raised concerns about a potential coalition breakdown less than a year before the next election.

“Now that everyone has submitted their proposals, we need to see how they fit together,” a government source told Reuters. The source noted that Scholz plans to hold multiple meetings with Lindner and Habeck in the days leading up to Wednesday’s regular coalition committee meeting, which may prove decisive for the coalition’s future.

Habeck, a member of the Greens, aims to establish a multi-billion-euro fund to encourage investment while circumventing Germany’s strict fiscal rules. Meanwhile, Lindner advocates for tax cuts and an immediate halt to new regulations as a means to stimulate the economy. Additionally, Scholz recently convened with industry leaders to develop a “sector pact”—a move reportedly made without notifying his coalition partners.

Finance Minister Lindner’s proposals

According to Friday’s leaked document, Lindner is urging tax cuts and stricter fiscal policies. Representing the pro-market FDP in Scholz’s coalition, Lindner calls for “an economic turnaround through a partial overhaul of fundamental political decisions” in an 18-page policy paper from his ministry.

His plan includes tax cuts to spur economic growth and proposes the immediate abolition of the solidarity surcharge, an add-on to income and corporate taxes initially introduced to support Germany’s eastern states post-reunification. Lindner also suggests cutting €10 billion in subsidies, following Intel’s decision to cancel its semiconductor project—a reallocation of funds that Habeck had previously proposed.

Growing rift over FDP’s economic stance

While SPD leader Lars Klingbeil has signaled openness to parts of Lindner’s proposals, he indicated that some are unacceptable to his party. FDP board member Torsten Herbst further warned that “without a fundamental change in economic policy, there will be no basis for the federal budget—and thus no basis for the government.”

After a series of weak regional election results, the FDP has hinted at leaving the coalition this fall if its preferred policies are not adopted.

CDU backs FDP’s stance

The main opposition, the Christian Democrats and Christian Union (CDU/CSU), responded to the coalition tensions by calling for early elections. According to a recent poll, the coalition parties collectively hold 30% of the vote, trailing the CDU/CSU’s 32%.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz has expressed support for Lindner’s proposals, noting significant alignment between the FDP’s economic policies and those of the CDU/CSU. In his newsletter, “MerzMail,” he claimed that many of Lindner’s suggestions are similar to or directly sourced from CDU/CSU proposals in the Bundestag over the past two years.

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EU investment in China hits record $3.9 billion in three months

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Despite calls from European Union leaders to “de-risk” economic ties with China, greenfield investment by EU companies in the country surged to record levels in the second quarter of this year, largely driven by German carmakers.

According to consultancy firm Rhodium Group, greenfield investment—referring to the creation of new companies or the construction of new facilities—reached €3.6 billion ($3.9 billion) in the April to June period.

This marks the highest quarterly level on record, significantly exceeding the average quarterly EU investment of €1.8 billion since 2022. German companies accounted for 57% of total EU greenfield investment in China in the first half of the year.

The top five EU corporate investors were Germany’s Volkswagen, BMW, and chemical giant BASF; Sweden’s Ingka Group, owner of furniture retailer IKEA; and Dutch technology company STMicroelectronics.

Rhodium Group’s analysis indicates that automakers are likely to represent around half of all EU investment in China from 2022 onwards. Investment in greenfield plants appears motivated by companies’ desires to localize production, with a growing trend of producing “in China, for China” to safeguard supply chains from geopolitical tensions.

This increase in investment has occurred despite escalating trade tensions between the EU and China, especially in the automotive sector.

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