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The 2024 European elections have begun

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For three days (6-9 June), EU citizens will go to the polls to elect the European Parliament, the 720-member legislature of the European Union.

According to the latest polls, the ‘centre’ forces will continue to hold a majority in the EP in 2024. The ‘centre-right’ European People’s Party (EPP), led by the German Christian Democrats, is in first place with 182 seats, followed by the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats.

This centrist majority, which has dominated the EP for the past five years, together with the liberal Renew Europe group with 81 seats, is expected to win 399 out of 720 seats.

Despite disagreements over how to deal with the ‘far right’, as the EPP has opened the door to close cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party (FdI) and its EP affiliate, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), these three groups have made it clear that they intend to stick to their tripartite coalition.

This means that they will retain control of the EP’s policy-making cycle and have a say in key internal decisions such as the budget.

While both the EPP and the S&D will roughly retain their current seats, Renew Europe, which includes Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, will lose 20 seats, from 102 to 81, the group’s worst result since its creation in 2019.

This leaves Renew in a fight for third place against the right-wing ECR and the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID), which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN).

Big losses for the Greens

The losses can be partly explained by the departure of MEPs and the leadership of the Spanish liberal party Ciudadanos (formerly the largest national delegation in the group with eight seats) to join Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (EPP).

At the same time, the Liberals are also facing heavy losses in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition fell from 23 to 15 seats.

According to the latest projections, the ECR is expected to win 79 seats (12.2%) and the ID 69 (8.5%). The Greens would win 55 seats with 7.7% of the vote and the Left 38 seats with 6.4% of the vote.

The number of seats the Greens are expected to win is 17 less than in the previous period. The biggest loss is expected for the German Greens, who are part of the German traffic light coalition.

The ECR increases its number of seats from 68 to 79, while the ID gains 10 more seats, despite having recently expelled the AfD, the largest national party (expected to win 15 seats), due to a series of scandals.

The right will get a chance to block legislation

The ID and ECR will give the EPP the chance to block legislation by ganging up against the Socialists and Liberals, as they tried to do in the last parliament on the nature restoration law. Moreover, this time the right-wing bloc will have enough seats to gain a majority if necessary.

With Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Marine Le Pen and Polish opposition leader Mateusz Morawiecki all calling for some kind of right-wing alliance to balance the pro-European forces, speculation is rife about an imminent shift on the hemisphere’s ‘far right’.

While some would like to see a right-wing super-group that would bring together the ECR and the ID, making the far right the second largest political force with around 160 seats, such an option seems unlikely due to wide disagreements on policy areas and long-standing internal bickering between national parties.

A new left-wing group could also enter the EP

The Left is set to win 38 seats, more or less the same number as now, but with limited room for manoeuvre for broader coalitions. Moreover, the group’s future is uncertain.

In Germany, the new party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) recently confirmed that it had enough support to form a new left-wing group in the EP.

The BSW is reported to be in talks with organisations such as LFI and SMER, the ruling party in Slovakia.

The largest national group is expected to come from France

The top national delegations will reshape the balance of power in the EP and bring new priorities to the legislative work.

Ahead of the vote on Thursday 6 June, Europe Elects’ latest predictions for Euractiv reveal what could happen in the coming period.

According to the latest predictions, the top five national delegations could be the French RN with 31 seats, the German CDU/CSU with 28 seats, the Spanish Partido Popular (PP) with 23 seats, and the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Poland’s centre-right Civic Coalition (KO), both in fifth place with 20 seats each.

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Germany’s decision on Junge Welt

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Last Thursday, the Berlin Administrative Court rejected an appeal by Junge Welt (JW), Germany’s only left-wing daily newspaper founded in 1947, against the inclusion of the newspaper in the annual report of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV).

The court ruled in favour of the spy agency, which had placed the paper under surveillance for ‘left-wing extremism’. An urgent appeal was rejected in March 2022.

The ruling is intended to provide a legal basis for the claim that the newspaper was ‘unconstitutionally’ and ‘justifiably’ under surveillance by the secret service. The banning of the far-right magazine Compact, which was banned with immediate effect on Tuesday and confiscated by the Interior Ministry, shows how far-reaching the consequences could be.

JW’s fundamental rights are already severely restricted. The inclusion of the newspaper in the annual report of the secret service has a chilling effect on interview partners and readers and generally complicates and hinders the professional practice of journalists and broadcasters.

The plaintiff had therefore requested that the newspaper’s inclusion in 23 annual reports of the secret service since 1998 be annulled.

After the ruling, Dietmar Koschmieder, managing director of JW, said that an appeal would be lodged and, if necessary, the case would be taken to the European Court of Justice.

Koschmieder, a member of the German Communist Party (DKP), accused the court in its ruling of adopting ‘crude and stupid things’ from the constitutional report.

The president of the court, Wilfried Peters, sided with the BfV from the outset. According to the World Socialist Website, he made no secret of his view that socialist and Marxist politics should be banned in Germany.

Echoing the defendant’s arguments, Peters argued that the newspaper represented a ‘class point of view’ and referred favourably to Marx and Lenin, which was already unconstitutional.

According to the president, Junge Welt could not fall within the scope of freedom of the press because it not only published, but also displayed ‘political aims’ against the ‘free democratic basic order’ by organising an annual conference against capitalism.

The court said that the newspaper had given a voice to ‘extreme left-wing authors’, had referred to organisations on the ‘extreme left-wing spectrum’ and had allegedly failed to distance itself sufficiently from political forces advocating violence in parts of its coverage.

The plaintiff’s lawyer, Heinrich, pointed out that a positive reference to Marx and Lenin is not synonymous with the ideology of ‘Marxism-Leninism’, which was declared unconstitutional in a 1956 Supreme Court ruling against the German Communist Party (KPD) for, among other things, advocating a one-party dictatorship. According to the ruling, only ‘Marxism-Leninism as interpreted by Stalin’ was unconstitutional.

In his ruling, Peters insisted that the BfV had drawn attention to the ‘extreme left-wing’ views of many JW writers and editors, and declared that Lenin, as a historical figure, had ‘fought most vigorously against the constitutional order’.

Judge Peters also set the value of the case at a staggering €115,000, including lawyers’ fees and court costs.

According to the court, there are numerous links between the editors and writers of Junge Welt and the German Communist Party (DKP), which is considered ‘extreme left-wing’.

In addition, Junge Welt does not openly declare its commitment to ‘non-violence’, and former ‘RAF terrorists’ have repeatedly been offered platforms by the newspaper.

The judge ruled that the normal amount in dispute for the BfV’s annual reports was actually 5,000 euros, but that these amounts had to be added together because there were 23 reports in total, albeit almost identical ones.

As a result, the JW broadcasters have to pay large sums of money to the court, even though the case is still ongoing and the judgement has not yet been finalised.

Sevim Dağdelen, foreign policy spokesperson for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in the Bundestag, criticised the ruling: ‘The decision undermines freedom of the press and democracy in Germany. Critical reporting on war and capitalism should be defended as part of the political decision-making process, not the job of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

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Greece buys Russian gas through TurkStream

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According to the Berliner Zeitung, Greece has suddenly halted its ambitious LNG plans and opted to rely on gas from the TurkStream pipeline from Russia to Turkey.

The EU wants to end its dependence on Russian gas by 2027. Indeed, the share of Russian pipeline gas in EU gas imports will fall from 40 percent in 2021 to 8 percent in 2023.

However, according to the report, there are now signs that this trend will not continue. Some EU countries, such as Greece, have even started to import more Russian pipeline gas again. Instead, plans for additional LNG terminals have been put on hold.

Gas imports via TurkStream on the rise

According to Handelsblatt, around 60 percent of Greece’s gas imports currently come from Russia. In 2022, this figure will be only 14 percent.

Greece is not alone: Russia’s share of Austria’s gas imports has also risen from 87 to 91 per cent.

Hungary has signed new supply contracts with Gazprom for 2023.

Greece, however, had other plans last year. A project for five new LNG terminals was announced, which would make the country one of the most important LNG hubs in the region. The plan was to supply LNG as far as Ukraine.

But the Greek government has now backtracked. Our LNG capacity is more than sufficient,’ Handelsblatt quoted Greek Environment and Energy Minister Theodoros Skylakakis as saying. The future of the LNG projects is now uncertain.

Athens wants to block ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil

However, according to a report in the Greek City Times, the Greek navy this week extended an advisory effectively banning shipping off the south-east coast of the Peloponnese and beyond.

According to three sources, the move is aimed at preventing ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil in Greek waters.

In recent months, Greece has regularly issued and extended similar advisories for military exercises in the Gulf of Lakonia and off the island of Kythera (Chuha), urging commercial and other vessels to avoid these areas.

The latest advisory has been extended until 15 September 2024.

It is clearly effective in preventing the diversion of shipments that should not be diverted,” said one of the sources, citing this as one of the main reasons for the extension.

Russian gas continues to reach the EU

Data from the think tank Bruegel show that the EU’s gas imports from Russia are increasing.

In the first week of July 2024, they amounted to 648 million cubic metres, compared to only 562 million cubic metres in the same period in 2023.

In particular, more Russian gas was imported via pipelines in Ukraine and Turkey. For example, the TurkStream pipeline transported 344 million cubic metres of gas to the EU in the first week of July, compared to only 298 million cubic metres a year earlier, an increase of around 15 percent.

Russia has again overtaken the US in gas supplies to the EU

This results in lower demand for LNG in the EU, as pipeline gas is generally much cheaper.

In terms of total exports to Europe (pipeline gas and LNG), Russia has once again overtaken the US as the EU’s second largest gas supplier.

According to the Berliner Zeitung, it remains a difficult task for the EU to become independent of Russian gas by 2027.

The EU has so far imposed a total of 14 sanctions packages on Russia, but Russian pipeline gas has not yet been affected.

Russian LNG has also been sanctioned only indirectly. Only transhipment through a European port for resale to third countries is banned.

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NATO plans to seize Chinese infrastructure in Europe in case of ‘wider conflict with Russia’

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NATO officials are discussing taking action to reclaim some Chinese-owned infrastructure projects in Europe in the event of a wider conflict with Russia in the east of the continent, three officials involved in the talks told CNN.

A decade ago, as Europe struggled to emerge from the economic crisis caused by the global financial meltdown, the promise of infrastructure funding from Chinese-owned investment companies seemed like a great “windfall”, according to CNN.

Now, with the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II and Western warnings that Beijing is aiding Russia in the war, Nato countries see these investments as a “liability” and the allies have begun discussing ways to buy back some of these projects, officials said.

According to one US official, there are fears that Beijing could use its infrastructure in Europe to provide material support to Russia if the conflict escalates. The goal is to find a way forward well in advance of any potential conflict, the officials said.

Discussions at an early stage

The discussions also show that the NATO alliance is increasingly focused on China. The People’s Republic of China was strongly targeted in a joint statement issued by 32 heads of state and government at the 75th anniversary summit in Washington last Wednesday.

Discussions on infrastructure measures are still in the early stages, according to three officials involved, with varying levels of commitment among NATO members. One NATO diplomat said the United States, which is leading the talks, should continue the discussions bilaterally to ensure the necessary support.

From railways linking Eastern Europe to China to ports in the North and Baltic Seas, China has financed tens of billions of dollars of infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which European countries signed up to in 2013.

Infrastructure to be nationalised in case of war

A NATO official said that if war broke out, infrastructure ‘would almost certainly be nationalised or nations would temporarily take operational control under emergency security measures’. China could then take the confiscating countries to court, he said.

US officials believe that moves by European countries to force Russia to sell its assets after the Ukraine war have set a precedent for such takeovers or sales. For more than a year, Finland had repeatedly blocked the operation of the Helsinki Shipyard, a maker of icebreaking ships once owned by a Russian company, until Russia sold it to a Canada-based organisation in late 2023.

A senior US official said the talks had expanded beyond low-tech to include high-tech areas such as quantum computing, semiconductors and telecommunications infrastructure.

Blinken signals Pacific alliance against China

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine may be the reason why European and Asian countries have realised that their security depends on each other.

“Japanese Prime Minister Kishida said that what happens in Europe today could happen in East Asia tomorrow, and perhaps that was crystallised in Ukraine. When Russia renewed its aggression against Ukraine, Japan stood up, South Korea stood up, Australia stood up, New Zealand stood up, reflecting a recognition that these problems are interconnected,” Blinken said.

France reluctant to use NATO against China

While most NATO members have expressed some level of concern about China’s infrastructure, two officials involved in the discussions told CNN that France in particular has tried to shift the infrastructure debate to the European Union, which has authority over other economic issues.

According to the officials, tensions with France and other countries have influenced the language of the statement, with countries arguing that NATO is not the best platform to challenge China.

But many member states have a very real fear that Beijing could use these assets against the alliance in the future and continue to push for the alliance to defend against this threat, according to CNN.

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