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The 30th anniversary of the Kardak Crisis between Türkiye and Greece

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How did the crisis begin, and how did it conclude?

In the 459th page of his autobiography titled My Life, released in June 2024—approximately three years after departing from the White House—Bill Clinton (William Jefferson Clinton), the 42nd President of the United States, recounted the 1996 Kardak Crisis, which brought Türkiye and Greece to the precipice of war, with the following words:

“Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin arrived at the White House on January 30th for his sixth meeting with Al Gore. After concluding the commission’s work, Chernomyrdin visited me to provide an update on developments in Russia and Yeltsin’s prospects for re-election. Shortly before meeting with Chernomyrdin, I spoke with Turkish President Süleyman Demirel and Prime Minister Tansu Çiller. Both informed me that Türkiye and Greece were on the brink of an armed conflict and implored my assistance to prevent it. They were prepared to go to war over two tiny islets in the Aegean Sea, which the Greeks called Imia and the Turks called Kardak. Although both nations laid claim to these islets, it appeared that they had passed into Greek possession following a 1947 treaty between Greece and Italy. Nevertheless, Türkiye did not recognize the Greek claims. Despite frequent visits by Turks to the islets, they remained uninhabited. The crisis was ignited when some Turkish journalists tore down the Greek flag there and hoisted the Turkish flag in its place. It seemed inconceivable that two major nations, embroiled in a genuine dispute over Cyprus, would engage in combat over a few square meters of rock inhabited only by goats. Yet, I could discern that Çiller was truly apprehensive about such a possibility. Interrupting the meeting with Chernomyrdin, I first called Greek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis, and then re-established contact with Demirel and Çiller. After several telephone consultations, as both sides agreed to hold their fire, Dick Holbrooke—who had already begun working on the Cyprus issue—spent a sleepless night persuading the parties to resolve the matter through diplomacy. Whether or not I succeeded in brokering peace in the Middle East, Bosnia, or Northern Ireland, I could not help but chuckle at the thought that I had at least saved the lives of a few Aegean goats.”

The Kardak Crisis, which Clinton recalled and narrated with a touch of irony, was in truth a product of Greece’s ambition to transform the Aegean Sea into a “Greek Lake.” Greece, a perennial source of friction in the Aegean—also known as the Sea of Islands—precipitated the Kardak crisis in an attempt to impose its own theses upon Türkiye. The Kardak Rocks consist of two uninhabited outcrops situated 325 meters apart in the South Aegean, a mere 3.6 miles from the Turkish mainland. The distance to the nearest Greek island, Kalymnos, is 5.4 miles, while the distance between Türkiye and Kalymnos stands at 9 miles.

At the onset of the crisis, Türkiye was governed by a DYP–CHP coalition. However, following the general elections of December 24, 1995, both parties had suffered setbacks. The Welfare Party (Refah Partisi) emerged as the victor, while the DYP fell to third place. The CHP narrowly surpassed the 10% electoral threshold to enter the Grand National Assembly as the fifth party. Since a new government had yet to be formed, Tansu Çiller, Chairperson of the DYP, remained Prime Minister, and Deniz Baykal, Chairperson of the CHP, continued as Foreign Minister. Süleyman Demirel served as President. In Greece, a new government under Prime Minister Kostas Simitis had recently been established.

The genesis of the crisis and Greece’s disregard for international law

On December 25, 1995, a Turkish merchant vessel named Figen Akat, carrying cargo from Çanakkale to Israel, ran aground on the Kardak Rocks. Following the accident, Greek Coast Guard boats arrived at the scene, asserting that the incident had occurred within Greek territorial waters and that the salvage operation must therefore be conducted by a Greek vessel. The ship’s captain, conversely, maintained they were in Turkish waters and reported that they had immediately requested assistance from the Turkish Coast Guard Command. These two rocks, which had been largely overlooked until that day, suddenly birthed a new crisis between Ankara and Athens, compounding existing disputes.

Prime Minister Tansu Çiller adopted a nationalist rhetoric to bolster her hand and secure an influential position in the impending coalition negotiations. Aiming to galvanize public support, she declared, “That flag shall come down, and those troops shall depart.” President Süleyman Demirel, however, was more circumspect, counseling composure and moderation. He feared that if war broke out with Greece over these rocks, it would be difficult to justify to the Turkish nation, who would inevitably ask their leaders, “Was there no way to resolve this short of war?”

A nationalist fervor was also surging in Greece. The Greek media fueled public sentiment with highly nationalistic broadcasts. Greece was performing its usual maneuver, using the Kardak Rocks as a pretext to seek absolute hegemony over the Aegean Sea. According to Athens’ calculations, if Türkiye conceded that the rocks belonged to Greece, Athens would then claim sovereignty over all other disputed islands, islets, and rocks. Türkiye, on the other hand, maintained that any landmasses remaining from the Ottoman Empire whose sovereignty had not been explicitly transferred by treaty were—by natural, logical, historical, and legal necessity—Turkish territory. This is because the Republic of Türkiye was recognized in the Treaty of Lausanne, its founding document, as the successor state to the Ottoman Empire.

While Türkiye and Greece exchanged diplomatic notes, tons of cement from the grounded vessel were being spilled into the sea, necessitating an urgent salvage operation. Turkish and Greek warships anchored in the vicinity of the rocks. A Greek salvage boat approached the vessel and towed it free; however, when the towline became entangled in the ship’s swivel, a Turkish crew member promptly severed it. Once freed, the vessel quickly entered Turkish territorial waters and was towed to Güllük Harbor.

Following the ship’s salvage, the tension regarding the sovereignty of the Kardak Rocks escalated further. In a note to Türkiye, Greece claimed the rocks had been ceded to them; Türkiye rejected this, pointing to land registry records that proved the rocks were Turkish territory.

On January 26, a month after the grounding, the Mayor of Kalymnos landed on the rocks accompanied by a priest, local youths, and journalists to hoist the Greek flag. In response, two reporters from the Hürriyet newspaper landed on the rocks on January 27, lowered the Greek flag, and raised the Turkish flag.

The landing of Greek troops on the Kardak Rocks

As tensions mounted, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs meticulously avoided escalation, prioritizing diplomacy. In contrast, Greece intensified the friction; on January 28, Greek soldiers landed on the rocks, planted their flag, and stationed themselves on East Kardak (the larger of the two). Not content with this, Greece dispatched warships to encircle the rocks.

Rather than retaliating immediately, Türkiye issued a diplomatic note to the Greek Ambassador in Ankara, who was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 29. The note stated that the 1932 Turkish–Italian Protocol and the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty contained no explicit provisions regarding the sovereignty of these formations. Türkiye declared its readiness to negotiate with Greece regarding the islands, islets, and rocks whose sovereignty had not been transferred to Greece by treaty (collectively referred to as EGAYDAAK). The note demanded the immediate withdrawal of the Greek troops stationed on the Kardak Rocks. Greek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis, however, accused Türkiye, stating, “We declare that Greece’s response to this or any other aggressive nationalism will be immediate, severe, and resolute. We shall not hesitate to utilize all means at our disposal against Türkiye. Turkish vessels must exit Greek territorial waters.” Similarly, Greek Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos told Parliament on January 30 that they would not lower the Greek flag on Kardak, nor would they make the rocks a subject of negotiation with Türkiye. Meanwhile, the United States, in constant contact with both Ankara and Athens, conveyed the message that whoever fired the first shot would find themselves in opposition to the U.S.

In the face of Greece’s preference for deepening the crisis and its bellicose rhetoric, Türkiye pursued a policy that was both composed and firm, ensuring it did not appear timid to either its domestic public or the international community. The government instructed the military to be prepared for a military option should diplomatic efforts fail. While the prospect of armed conflict heightened tensions, Türkiye was also concerned that a Greek fait accompli could lead to the annexation of another 150 islands in the region. The “dogfights” between the two countries’ aircraft and the close maneuvering of warships raised the specter of a regional conflict, even if a total war was not imminent.

At this juncture, Türkiye decided to implement a formula proposed by İnal Batu, then Deputy Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Batu’s proposal was as follows: On the smaller of the Kardak Rocks (also known as the İkizce Rocks), namely West Kardak, there was a Greek flag but no Greek troops. If Turkish Underwater Offence (SAT) teams could conduct a midnight infiltration through the Greek fleet—which consisted of 24 vessels of various sizes—land on this smaller rock, and hoist the Turkish flag, a strategic parity would be established between Türkiye and Greece, making a return to the pre-crisis status quo ante more feasible.

İnal Batu’s proposal was accepted, and Türkiye committed to this arduous and high-risk operation. The possibility of the infiltration team being detected or engaging in an armed clash was real, and Türkiye accepted this risk. Ultimately, the infiltration operation, carried out by two boats in groups of five at midnight on January 30, was successfully completed 1.5 hours later when the Turkish commandos landed on the second rock (West Kardak) and raised the Turkish flag. The success of the Turkish team sparked heated debates in the Greek Parliament; when no answer could be found as to how a 10-man team in two boats managed to pass undetected through the Greek warships and land on the rocks, the Greek Chief of the General Staff resigned.

Conclusion

Ultimately, influenced by pressure from both the United States and European nations, both countries agreed to withdraw their troops from the rocks and lower their flags. On January 31, Greek troops departed first, followed by Turkish troops. The issue was resolved through diplomatic channels without a single shot being fired. However, it must not be forgotten that the crisis—as President Clinton noted—did not stem from two small rocks where goats grazed, but was a matter of territory and sovereignty in the Aegean Sea, and that the crisis was, as usual, initiated by Greece.

Türkiye’s achievement in successfully executing a difficult military operation while simultaneously utilizing diplomatic channels to their fullest extent is of significant importance. By landing troops and planting a flag on the uninhabited rock, Türkiye demonstrated its political resolve and proved its military capability. Furthermore, by opting for a move designed to de-escalate rather than intensify the tension, Türkiye provided the Greek side with an opportunity to retreat without bruising the honor of Athens.

References

Hürriyet and Milliyet newspapers of the period.

Aydın Şıhmantepe, “An Analysis of the Kardak Crisis Process in Terms of Crisis Management Principles” (pp. 136–139), Journal of Security Strategies, April 2013, Issue: 17, Year: 9, pp. 127–155.

Turkish Foreign Policy Crisis Studies, 1996 Kardak Crisis, http://tdpkrizleri.org.tr/index.php/1996-kardak-crisis

Opinion

The era of corridor alliances in the Middle East

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In the Middle East, war is no longer waged merely to seize territory. The true contest turns on who will control the energy pipelines, trade routes, ports, and railways of tomorrow. Missiles may strike cities today, but the maps of the future are being drawn through transport and energy corridors.

In this context, interpreting Türkiye’s presence in the Mecca Alliance solely as military support for Saudi Arabian security remains incomplete; it fails to explain why two states that viewed each other with mutual suspicion until recently would take steps toward a cooperation close enough to constitute a shared destiny.

Alongside Saudi Arabia’s existential motives, Ankara’s participation in this alliance is anchored in a profound geopolitical foundation: to position itself within, and if possible at the very centre of, the Middle East’s reconfigured energy and transport corridors.

Today, it cannot be said that Riyadh and Ankara see eye to eye on every regional issue. The threat perceptions and priorities of the two countries do not, quite naturally, entirely coincide. On the geopolitical chessboard, partnerships do not always arise from identical agendas. When reasons are sufficiently compelling, particularly existential ones, they can override political differences and enable common ground along the same strategic path.

A new war of corridors unfolds in the Middle East

On one side lies IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), planned to extend from India through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to Europe. On the other stands the Development Road, which aims to link the Persian Gulf across Iraq to Türkiye, and onward to Europe.

These two undertakings are, of course, far more than mere transport projects. They represent two divergent geopolitical answers to where the future flow of trade and energy between Asia and Europe will traverse; for Türkiye, this issue is of vital importance.

If a corridor system taking shape to Türkiye’s south, beyond Ankara’s orbit, becomes permanent, Türkiye could forfeit not only an economic opportunity but also a substantial portion of its strategic centrality in the Middle East. It is through this prism that the Mecca Alliance must be evaluated.

Türkiye’s seat at the same table with Saudi Arabia signifies more than military solidarity. Riyadh and Ankara must sit together to avoid exclusion from the region’s emergent security and economic architecture, for the security of a corridor and the corridor itself are no longer separate matters.

The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab, and the Suez Canal are links in the very same chain. A security crisis in one directly impacts the others. While the vulnerability of Hormuz makes alternative export routes for Gulf oil indispensable, instability across the Red Sea heightens the strategic cost of Suez.

Saudi Arabia’s alternative pipelines connecting its eastern oil fields to Red Sea terminals are therefore not merely energy infrastructure; they are strategic bypasses mitigating dependence on Hormuz.

For Türkiye, the Development Road fulfills the same function across a broader geography. Stretching from the Persian Gulf through Iraq to Türkiye, and from Türkiye into Europe, this artery possesses the potential to forge a new overland backbone connecting the Gulf to the Mediterranean and Europe. As security concerns in the Red Sea mount and the vulnerability of Suez deepens, the value of this route rises accordingly.

The Hejaz Railway: Revived once again

The return of the Hejaz Railway to the regional agenda signifies far more than mere nostalgia. Once linking Istanbul to Damascus, Amman, and the Hejaz, the railway served as one of the primary transport and logistical arteries of the Ottoman geography.

Reviving the idea of the Hejaz Railway could become the emblem of Türkiye’s drive to reimagine its historical transport connections between the Gulf, the Hejaz, and the Levant through modern rail, energy, and logistics networks.

The objective here is not to restore the past, but to transpose the strategic logic of that historical geographical linkage into the twenty-first century. For this reason, Türkiye’s role in the Mecca Alliance and the resurgence of the Hejaz Railway project must be viewed as components of the same overarching picture.

Corridors do not consist solely of energy pipelines. Railways, ports, highways, electrical interconnectors, logistical hubs, and security architectures are all facets of the same geopolitical grid, and safeguarding these networks requires political alliances.

Herein lies the strategic significance of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye sitting at the same table in Mecca, even at a juncture when their views on Syria diverge.

Ankara and Riyadh do not need to agree on every subject. Yet neither wishes to see the new map of the Middle East drawn to its detriment. Türkiye’s aim is not to build an anti-bloc against any specific country alongside Saudi Arabia; rather, the goal is to avoid exclusion from the future energy and trade systems of the Middle East, while securing a decisive voice in establishing their security architecture.

Hence, for Türkiye, the Mecca Alliance is far more than a simple defence pact. Securing the Development Road, shielding Gulf energy corridors, stabilising the Red Sea, rethinking connections across the Hejaz and the Levant, and bolstering trade corridors reaching Europe all intersect within this single strategic equation.

In this equation, Türkiye’s foremost advantage remains its geography. Ankara sits at the northern terminus of the overland routes linking the Gulf to Europe; within NATO; and at the crossroads connecting the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

Will Türkiye become one of the powers shaping the Middle East’s energy and trade architecture over the coming decades, or will it be reduced to a mere transit state traversed by routes designed by others? That question defines the true strategic significance of the Mecca Alliance for Ankara.

In the Middle East of tomorrow, it will be impossible to separate the corridor carrying energy, the security framework protecting that corridor, and the alliance constructing that security framework.

Whoever controls the corridor shapes commerce. Whoever guarantees the routes through which trade flows holds sway over the regional balance of power. This is the true dimension of the contest currently underway in the Middle East.

A succession of distinct and largely mutually exclusive ambitions are competing for dominance in the current climate: India’s linkage to Europe, the Gulf’s new economic horizons, Saudi Arabia’s alternative energy routes, the security crisis in the Red Sea, the strategic weight of Hormuz, and Türkiye’s aspiration to open outward to Europe via the Development Road. Ironically, perhaps, the conflict that will decide which corridor underpins global stability has already begun, and it will likely continue spreading to new fronts. Regrettably, the fires in our region appear poised to intensify long before they abate.

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Istanbul’s East-West Forum: A conversation the world can no longer avoid

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Dr. Ahmed Moustafa, Director & Founder, Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt

In a city that has spent centuries translating the language of one civilization to another, the first East-West Forum arrived at a moment when the world itself seemed to have lost the vocabulary for talking across its divisions.

Held in Istanbul on Sept. 26–27 and preceded by meetings around the event, the forum brought together diplomats, academics, journalists, strategists and political thinkers from a wide range of countries. Hosted by Harici Media in partnership with the Berlin-based European Transcontinental Initiative, the gathering was conceived as an attempt to examine a world increasingly defined by competing power centers, regional wars, economic fragmentation, artificial intelligence and the erosion of confidence in institutions created after the Second World War. Harici reported that participants came from roughly 30 countries.

For us, the significance of Istanbul was not simply a matter of the speakers on the panel or the structure of the programme. Its deeper importance lay in the willingness to put difficult — and sometimes uncomfortable — questions on the table.

We would like to extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to my friend and brother, Mr. Tunç Akkoç, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Harici Media, for his gracious invitation to a representative of the Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt, to participate in the Forum as a speaker and commentator. His initiative in creating a platform where competing geopolitical narratives could meet directly deserves recognition.

In his opening remarks, Akkos stressed that the initiative was intended to establish a permanent platform where people representing different political and intellectual traditions and perspectives could meet and engage in direct dialogue.

This vision is particularly significant because the traditional language used in international relations has increasingly struggled to explain the realities of a rapidly changing world.

The Problem of Proxy Wars

During the session that discussed proxy wars in the region and ways to reach solutions to their crises, the Center put forward the view that the Middle East cannot simply be understood through the traditional map that divides the parties into “good” and “evil,” or into “responsible states” and “rogue states.”

Such terms, in our assessment, often reflect the perspective of powers that possess extensive influence over international media and financial and security institutions.

The Center particularly criticised what we see as political bias within important sectors of the Western media and some non-governmental organisations that receive Western funding. From our perspective, these institutions can, in some cases, move from being mere observers of geopolitical conflicts to becoming influential parties in the battle over the narrative and the story.

However, this view should remain open to debate and should not automatically be accepted as an absolute truth.

The more important question is not whether every Western journalist, every NGO, or every Western institution works to serve a single geopolitical agenda clearly, this is not the case, but whether the information environment itself has become so highly polarised that the public is now receiving radically different interpretations of the very same war.

In our assessment, the answer is increasingly approaching “yes.”

The problem becomes particularly clear when searching for the term “proxy wars” in the Middle East. Some of the first results focus on groups associated with Iran, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as Hamas, whereas the history of regional conflicts is far more complex.

Al-Qaeda and ISIS emerged through different historical trajectories, with Anglo-Saxon support that was “created by Britain and the United States.” In environments dominated by the United States and Britain, Al-Qaeda emerged from the environment associated with Osama bin Laden and the Afghan jihad, while ISIS developed largely from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, under American sponsorship, to pursue a certain agenda in the region and advance the scenario of “creative chaos” promoted by Condoleezza Rice, the radical US Secretary of State.

At the same time, US policy toward Afghanistan during the Cold War contributed to shaping the broader environment from which some militant jihadist movements later emerged.

These distinctions matter.

Because propaganda often begins where complex historical details end.

Who Has the Right to Define a “Rogue State”?

The same problem appears in the vocabulary used to describe states.

Countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are frequently portrayed in Western strategic discourse as states challenging the existing international order.

Egypt, despite the different nature of its relationship with Washington, can also become the subject of criticism when its foreign policy does not conform to certain Western expectations.

The question is not whether these governments should be exempt from criticism. Of course not.

The deeper question is this: can the international system remain sustainable when one geopolitical camp increasingly assumes the authority to define which governments are legitimate, which movements are terrorist, which wars are defensive and which forms of resistance are acceptable?

That was one of the central questions behind our intervention in Istanbul.

The Middle East has repeatedly been presented through the lens of the “Iranian threat” as the principal strategic danger.

There is no question that Iran possesses significant military and regional capabilities, and that its policies are deeply contested by many neighbouring states. At the same time, reducing virtually every regional security problem to Tehran can obscure the interests and roles of other actors, including Israel, the United States, Gulf states, armed groups and local political forces.

The region has repeatedly paid a heavy price for simplistic interpretations of complex conflicts.

The Economics of Fear

The discussions in Istanbul also led us to a broader American question: to what extent can fear itself become a source of political and economic power?

Historically, the United States has experienced intense political campaigns shaped by perceived racial, ideological and security threats.

One does not need to accept every interpretation of this history to recognise that fear can become a factor with tangible economic consequences.

A 2020 study by Citi estimated that racial discrimination against Black Americans had cost the US economy approximately $16 trillion in lost economic output since 2000, based on an analysis of disparities in wages, education, housing and investment.

This figure demonstrates the extent of the economic losses associated with racial discrimination and exclusion. It also raises questions about the relationship between fear-based narratives concerning Black Americans, media influence, the political power of the gun lobby and the broader economic consequences of insecurity.

More importantly, however, the study highlights a fundamental point: bias and insecurity carry substantial and measurable economic costs.

The broader lesson has direct relevance to foreign policy.

When societies are continually presented with existential enemies, military spending and the expansion of security institutions become politically easier to justify.

America After Iran

In Istanbul, we also advanced the view that the United States after its confrontation with Iran in 2026 should not simply be understood through the traditional image of unlimited American power.

The conflict exposed economic and strategic vulnerabilities.

The Strait of Hormuz emerged as a major strategic pressure point for global energy markets, amid disruptions to international trade that forced governments and companies to search for alternative routes and supplies.

The consequences were reflected in oil prices and energy costs in Europe and elsewhere.

This does not mean that American power has disappeared. Rather, it suggests that military power is no longer synonymous with strategic control.

The rise of China, Russia, ASEAN, Iran and other centres of economic and diplomatic influence has made the international order increasingly complex and dispersed.

The East-West Forum itself reflected this reality, bringing together voices from Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North America while explicitly addressing multipolarity and the ongoing transformation of the global order.

America Is Changing From Within

The domestic dimension of American politics also deserves attention.

The emergence of figures such as Zohran Mamdani in New York and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan reflects changes in the American political debate over inequality, foreign policy, healthcare, identity and the influence of established political and economic interests.

Their political trajectories should not be treated as evidence of a predetermined future for the United States.

They do, however, illustrate how issues that were once treated as peripheral including the costs of war, US policy toward Israel, economic inequality and the political influence of younger and more diverse generations have moved closer to the centre of American political debate.

This is another reason why East-West dialogue cannot remain confined to foreign ministries and military institutions.

A Dinner for Dialogue

One of the most memorable moments on the margins of the Forum was the private dinner held on the evening of Friday, September 25, hosted by H.E. Mr. Hasan Capan, Chairman of the Turkish-Chinese Friendship Foundation, and H.E. Ambassador Ersin Erçin, Vice Chairman of the Foundation, in honour of the speakers and participants.

We extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to both of them for their generosity, friendship and support.

The gathering was more than simply a dinner. It provided an opportunity for personal interaction, an exchange of ideas and the building of relationships among participants — precisely the kind of human diplomacy that formal conferences sometimes lack.

Real dialogue does not always begin behind conference podiums.

Very often, it begins around a single table.

Istanbul’s Larger Message

The first East-West Forum should be regarded as the beginning of a dialogue, not the end of a debate.

The organisers have already articulated a vision of transforming the initiative into an annual gathering in Istanbul, developing expert working groups, establishing an East-West Forum network and potentially creating a business council capable of connecting intellectual dialogue with economic cooperation.

This may ultimately prove to be one of its most important contributions.

The world that emerges from the current conflicts including the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will require more than ceasefire agreements.

It will require a new conversation about security, energy, sovereignty, development, technology and coexistence.

Istanbul is an exceptional setting for such a dialogue. One participant even proposed moving the headquarters of international organisations, including the United Nations, to Istanbul.

For centuries, the city has stood between two continents without belonging exclusively to either.

The East-West Forum can follow the same principle: not choosing one civilisation against another, but creating a space in which East and West can confront their differences without turning disagreement into permanent conflict.

For this reason, we see the Istanbul gathering as an announcement of intent.

It was not an attempt to erase differences.

It was an attempt to make dialogue possible despite them.

At a time when proxy conflicts increasingly risk evolving into direct confrontations, this may be among the most important political conversations the world can undertake today.

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Opinion

A new world in the East, old dogmas in the West

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Much commentary followed the US president greeting the visiting Chinese leader at the foot of the aircraft stairs: both because a US president had not done so in many years, and because the leader he welcomed heads a state that the US defines as a competitor, an adversary, and an enemy. That photograph demonstrated that the US itself now recognizes China not merely as an economic power, but as a political, military, scientific, industrial, and technological one; yet it revealed other realities as well.

It showed that a multipolar order has arrived. It showed that the failure of the US to abide by the order whose rules it laid down and whose institutions it established has exacted a heavy toll on the US itself. It showed that the US-centric Atlantic system is unravelling. It showed that the collapse of a world order flouted, and indeed subverted, by its own rule-maker is both legitimate and inevitable. It showed that East-centred institutions, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS, enjoy an open path against Western-dominated bodies. It showed that the US regards China as a rival not merely economically, but ideologically and technologically. It showed that the US has proven unable to exercise deterrence against China, Russia, and Iran to the degree it desires.

Let us admit it: after the Cold War ended, the US assumed it could act as it pleased by bringing the European Union to its side and constantly invoking human rights, democracy, and freedom. It was mistaken. The more it spoke of a rules-based world order, of a liberal world order, the more it flouted those very rules. In the end, that order collapsed as well. The birth of a multipolar, multilateral, and multicentric world accelerated; and it was just as well. Now is the time to debate the rules, institutions, traditions, and solutions of this new order.

Yet who will conduct this debate? Who will take part in this search?

It is not right to expect this from the US; nor is it realistic. It is likewise impossible to expect it from the European Union. Europeans follow so subserviently in Washington’s wake that they refuse to consider even Russia as European, despite the fact that, alongside its Eurasian identity, millions of its citizens live across territory spanning Europe and Asia while viewing their nation as historically, politically, socially, culturally, artistically, and intellectually European. They attempt to construct a European defence and security architecture by excluding Russia, in defiance of Russia, and by harbouring hostility toward Russia. In the end, they are both mistaken and defeated.

As the new order emerges, India must also be examined under a distinct heading, alongside China and Russia. For India is a nuclear power possessing the world’s largest population and its 5th largest economy. It maintains disputes with China and Pakistan, yet enjoys good relations with Russia, the US, and Britain. It is a member of both the SCO and BRICS. On the other hand, within the Quad grouping, alongside the US, Japan, and Australia, it positions itself against China.

In summary, as an order takes shape in which the West runs out of breath while the East rises, and Atlantic institutions dissolve while those of Eurasia and the broader Global South come to the fore, we must first rid ourselves of Cold War dogmas and habits.

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