Opinion
The Bitter Wine of the War Placed Before Ukraine and Its European Partners
It has been exactly three and a half years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. This war may show the first glimmer of peace with a ceasefire, however, Ukraine and its European partners will be forced to drink the bitter wine of “ceding land for peace.” This bitter wine was brewed in the old wine vat of NATO’s eastward expansion, bottled during Biden’s presidency, and is now handed to Ukraine and its European allies by his successor Trump, along with the increasingly exposed “toxic sausage”: Ukraine cannot join NATO, at most the U.S. and Europe will provide security guarantees.
Although Ukraine and its European partners are still refusing this bitter wine that pleases Russia and eases America, they do not rule out holding a Russia-Ukraine summit or a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine summit in the near future to make final bargaining—even if only procedurally, formally, or psychologically—to show “man proposes, God disposes.”
On the 20th, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that preparations were underway for a possible meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with several candidate locations. She also revealed that whether a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine tripartite meeting would take place depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine summit.
According to AFP, during the U.S.-Russia leaders’ call on the 18th, Putin suggested that the future Russia-Ukraine summit could be held in Moscow. The holding of the Russia-Ukraine summit was announced that day after Trump met with Zelensky and seven other European leaders. However, European leaders were clearly unwilling to elevate Putin and aggrieve Zelensky, therefore they did not agree to the first Russia-Ukraine summit being held in Moscow.
Switzerland, which has maintained a 200-year tradition of neutrality, leaned toward the European camp because of the Russia-Ukraine war and participated in the blockade and sanctions against Russia. Now, perhaps seeing the general trend of U.S.-Russia reconciliation and the inevitable defeat of Ukraine and Europe, it seeks to please both the U.S. and Russia and play the mediator, proactively proposing to host the Russia-Ukraine summit. Of course, Turkey and the UAE are also possible venues for witnessing the historic meeting between Putin and Zelensky.
However, no matter where it is held, Ukraine and its European partners cannot rewrite the ceasefire script already drawn by Russia and approved by the U.S., namely: Ukraine must accept that the four southeastern regions and the Crimean Peninsula will henceforth “bear the Russian name, not the Ukrainian name,” even if not legally recognized; Ukraine must be completely shut out of NATO, cutting off its original intention and long-cherished wish to enjoy NATO’s collective defense.
This is the ceasefire bottom line repeatedly emphasized by Russia, the strategic goal of its military action in Ukraine, and the prerequisite the U.S. must accept to restore relations with Russia. This war result of “Russia fights, America yields,” “Russia wins, Ukraine loses,” “Russia advances, Europe retreats” was already settled at the U.S.-Russia Alaska summit on August 15, and confirmed again at the U.S.-Ukraine and U.S.-Europe summits in Washington on August 18.
Trump even warned his European partners who came lobbying: Putin “may not want to reach an agreement.” The subtext was clear: “Don’t assume that being the client gives you the upper hand — and don’t you dare push your luck.” Observers believe Putin is not in a hurry to reach an agreement because Russia is militarily in a strong position and has not yet fully achieved its set goal of fully annexing Donbas. Therefore, its ceasefire premise is Ukraine withdrawing troops from the Donbas-controlled areas and continuing to cede part of its sovereignty and territory. As for a more complex and long-term peace agreement, Russia expects more commitments from the U.S. and NATO.
At the White House “dual summit” on the 18th, seven European leaders traveled long distances to collectively back Zelensky, a grand formation displaying a strong “forcing the palace” posture. However, in the face of the very strong Trump, they were first collectively ignored, then ridiculed and humiliated one by one, creating a tragic and despairing scene for transatlantic relations. Trump insisted on meeting Zelensky alone first, then holding large-scale talks with Zelensky and the other leaders. The key point is that his basic plan did not change: Ukraine and its European partners could only discuss whether to first ceasefire or to reach a one-time peace agreement.
The dramatic scene of the White House dual summit evoked the fairy tale “Snow White,” as if Zelensky were the harmless Snow White, the other European leaders the seven dwarfs surrounding him, and Trump more like the old witch deceiving and harming Snow White with the poisoned apple. This real-life geopolitical fairy tale is not a tragicomedy but a thorough tragedy—because at the climax there is no prince marrying the awakened Snow White, only a polar bear that will swallow 20% of Ukraine’s land and continue to stare down Ukraine and Europe. And as American strategist Mearsheimer once said, this polar bear was “stabbed on the left and right by NATO for thirty years, left with no retreat, and forced to pounce and bite” its opponent.
A ceasefire in place is the urgent demand of Ukraine and its European partners, while a peace agreement is Russia’s tough demand. If there is no quick ceasefire, it means Ukraine, which has lost military advantage and been abandoned by Trump, will lose more land, more bargaining chips, and face greater defeat. If a comprehensive, package, and guaranteed peace agreement is not reached, Russia fears falling again into the strategic trap of the 2014 eastern Ukraine ceasefire—as former German Chancellor Merkel and former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg later admitted, NATO, especially its European members, used the ceasefire to train more Ukrainian troops and provide more equipment, causing Russia to lose battlefield-level advantages.
To reassure Russia about signing the ceasefire agreement, the Trump administration not only closed the door to Ukraine’s NATO membership but also significantly reduced its security guarantees for Ukraine. On the 20th, U.S. news outlet Politico cited Pentagon policy officials, saying that the U.S. plans to play a minimal role in security guarantees for Ukraine, and Europe must bear the burden of maintaining lasting peace in Kyiv. It was reported that the defense ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and Finland urged the U.S. to clarify what kind of assistance it would provide in terms of troops and aerial assets to maintain the peace agreement that Ukraine and Russia might reach. This response from the Pentagon officials undoubtedly left Ukraine and its European allies greatly disappointed.
Perhaps to make Ukraine and its European allies completely abandon their hopes and stop expecting the U.S. to continue paying for their security, U.S. Vice President Vance publicly stated that European countries will have to assume the “primary responsibility” for Ukraine’s security guarantees. This young, passionate, and fiercely loyal White House number two even bragged about how he humiliated Zelensky on the 18th: “If you follow the rules, I won’t say anything.” In February this year, Zelensky met with Trump, who had just returned to the White House, and was reprimanded by both Vance and Trump himself for “disrespecting the U.S.,” forcing him to leave the White House early. Vance bringing up this old incident and mocking Zelensky more brazenly this time undoubtedly served as an additional pressure demonstration towards Ukraine and its European partners.
As the saying goes, the defeated general cannot speak of bravery. Learning from the lesson of the unfriendly breakup during the U.S.-Ukraine summit four months ago, Zelensky, on this trip to the White House, obediently took off his iconic military uniform and switched to a Western suit. He also thanked Trump four times throughout the meeting, in stark contrast to the confrontational attitude during the first summit. He knew very well that the situation was stronger than any individual, and that in his dependent position, he could not expect to be on equal footing with Trump, let alone arrogantly set conditions for the main financier, especially since Ukraine’s military position was already in a disadvantageous state.
On the 21st, Trump made his latest statement on the Russia-Ukraine war, saying, “We will know the result in about two weeks” and indicated that the U.S. may adopt another strategy in two weeks. When Trump left the Alaska summit, he called out to Ukraine and its European partners, stating that whether a peace agreement is reached depends on Ukraine and its European partners’ agreement, and they must agree.
The ball of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has shifted from a war to a peace process, is indeed now in Ukraine and its European partners’ court. As the traditional team captain, the U.S. now plays the referee and is blowing the whistle while trying to accommodate Russia’s demands. Even though Ukraine is unwilling a thousand times, even though the European war-hawk countries are unwilling ten thousand times, the U.S. has no intention of continuing to accompany and save the situation. Ukraine and Europe are even less capable of changing the battlefield situation. With the situation being what it is, sacrificing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for the cessation of European warfare has become a choice with no alternatives. Ukraine and its European partners are bound to drink this bitter wine of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.
Opinion
India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships
Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.
India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.
Today, India’s achievements extend beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.
India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.
India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.
The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.
Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.
India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.
These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.
To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.
India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.
The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.
In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.
Opinion
Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa
In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.
History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.
Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.
Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.
AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS
Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.
Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.
In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”
China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.
THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY
It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.
The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.
The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.
Opinion
The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues
BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.
Allan Wilson, Journalist
Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.
“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”
Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.
For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.
The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.
“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.
A statue, a warning
The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.
The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.
For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”
Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.
The shrinking window
Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.
This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.
Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.
A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.
The international dimension
The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”
Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.
For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.
“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.
This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.
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