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The debate over Biden’s fitness for the presidency: The circle narrows

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Calls are growing in the US for Vice President Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race.

Democratic donors have warned that Biden’s refusal to step aside has “drained” funds for the November election and threatens to undermine the party’s efforts to defeat Donald Trump.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), donors have become a key audience in the battle over Biden’s future, with some aggressively pushing for his withdrawal even as Democratic members of Congress waver on his candidacy.

Their growing willingness to withdraw from the campaign, expressed in interviews with donors from Wall Street to Hollywood, poses a new risk to Biden’s re-election if he remains in the race for the White House, which is expected to be the most expensive in US history.

Donors say ‘money is drying up’

“As of today, it’s going to be very difficult for the president to raise money from big donors. It’s drying up so fast that it’s going to be extraordinarily difficult for him to stay in the race.”

Another donor, who has been in the party for decades, said the money was “drying up” and added: “When I talk to other donors, nine to one, they don’t plan to contribute … because they’re worried about losing.

Biden has sought to allay donors’ concerns in recent days, and on Monday he addressed them by participating in a conference call moderated by campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon.

While critical Democrats, including the Congressional Black Caucus and the Hispanic Caucus, have offered support for Biden, the effort has given Biden some breathing room as no member of the official party leadership has openly called for him to step aside.

But several high-profile Biden supporters, including Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, hotel magnate Stewart Bainum Jr. and actor George Clooney, have explicitly cited the president’s mental instability in their calls for him to step aside.

Some ‘fat wallets’ continue to pour in money

One Democratic donor said a long-time donor had refused to even hear an offer of more money. “It’s really hard to raise money in any way. Since the debate, [donors] have gone from not enthusiastic to just angry,” the fundraiser said.

Biden’s campaign said the president’s poor debate performance against Trump late last month had not hurt fundraising, pointing to $38 million raised shortly after the event.

Roger Hochschild, former chairman of Discover and one of Biden’s biggest donors, suggested in an email on Wednesday that Democrats were “coalescing” around their presumptive presidential nominee after the “initial wave of concern”.

Another major Biden donor, Peter Lowy, former CEO of the Westfield Group and an investor in the English soccer team Leeds United, donated $929,600 to the president’s joint fundraising group on Monday, the largest amount.

“I’m a businessman and I make decisions based on results,” Lowy said, pointing to the strong US economy under Biden as one of the reasons for his support.

In the 2020 race, Biden became the first candidate in US history to raise more than $1 billion, beating Trump, who raised $774 million, according to OpenSecrets. Including outside groups, the 2020 election cost more than $2.7 billion.

Clooney’s call for Biden to ‘step aside’ could be effective

On the other hand, Clooney’s call for Biden to drop out of the race could encourage others to take a similar stance. Last month, the actor spearheaded a $28 million fundraising drive in Hollywood.

Some Wall Street donors are now preparing to put more pressure on Biden to withdraw, but he said he was disappointed by his intransigence.

“I never thought I’d say this, but I’m hoping he makes a big gaffe,” said one Democratic donor in New York, adding that it would force Democratic elders like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer or South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn to give a “time’s up” speech.

Some donors warned that if Biden did not withdraw, the party risked losing both houses of Congress as well as the White House.

Pelosi joins the chorus

On the other hand, Nancy Pelosi also gave a strong indication that she expects Biden to withdraw.

Pelosi, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and one of the party’s most influential members of Congress, said in an interview with MSNBC: “It’s up to the president to decide whether or not to run. We’re all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running out,” Pelosi said in an interview with MSNBC.

Clooney, on the other hand, wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times that he likes Biden, but that “the only battle he cannot win is the battle against time”.

Clooney said: “None of us can win. It’s devastating to say this, but the Joe Biden I was with at the fundraiser three weeks ago was not the Joe ‘big f-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the man we all saw in the debate,” he said.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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