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The “Greater Israel” Fantasy Endangers the Future of the “Abraham Accords”

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On July 16, Israel brazenly launched airstrikes on key targets near the Syrian presidential palace, including the Ministry of Defense and General Staff Headquarters, to warn the Syrian government over recent actions asserting security and governance authority in the southern province of Suwayda. Israeli Defense Minister Gallant and Prime Minister Netanyahu made consecutive statements on July 16 and 17, emphasizing two core principles of Israel’s Syria policy: ensuring “demilitarization” south of Damascus, from the Golan Heights to the Druze Mountains, and protecting the Druze community. Faced with Israel’s first punitive military strike against the new Syrian regime in six months, the Syrian government announced a ceasefire agreement in Suwayda and withdrew security forces, clearly adopting a strategy of forbearance to avoid Israel’s aggressive suppression.

Israel’s blatant airstrike on Syrian military institutions and interference in its internal affairs has triggered widespread condemnation and dissatisfaction from the international community. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and nine other Arab countries issued a joint statement strongly condemning Israel’s flagrant violation of international law, blatant infringement of Syrian sovereignty, and undermining of Syria’s security, stability, territorial integrity, and citizen safety. China, Russia, and the United States also unusually stood united in rejecting Israel’s actions.

Observers believe that Israel’s heavy-handed attack on the new Syrian regime indicates that under the dual pressure of personal legal troubles and a collapsing ruling coalition, Netanyahu is resorting to military adventurism and territorial expansion to deflect internal pressures. In the long run, Israel’s brazen interference in Syrian internal affairs, its obstruction of Syrian territorial unification, and its attempt to establish a so-called “David Corridor” reveal a longstanding ambition for a “Greater Israel,” posing a challenge to the Trump administration’s recent efforts to normalize U.S.-Syria relations, and inevitably casting a shadow over the Abraham Accords that both the U.S. and Israel seek to expand.

According to multiple reports, starting on July 13, the Druze-majority province of Suwayda erupted in ethnic conflict involving Druze and Arab Bedouins, spiraling out of control. On July 14, the Syrian government dispatched security forces to restore order and, in doing so, expanded central government authority. Following their deployment, Syrian forces appeared to take sides, engaging in looting and burning of Druze homes. During this time, Israel not only launched airstrikes on Syrian forces in Suwayda but also allowed Druze people under Israeli control in the Golan Heights and within Israel to carry weapons into Suwayda to support their kin.

Since the regime change in Damascus late last year, Syria has been constrained by the U.S., Israel, Turkey, and other forces, creating a transitional balance of power. However, some regions have experienced factional purges due to historical grievances. The Alawite faction, located in coastal provinces like Latakia and stripped of central power, has faced brutal retribution from the new regime, drawing widespread international concern.

The Suwayda factional conflict is not only a microcosm of Syria’s governance challenges but also a recurrence of the country’s long-standing ethnic and sectarian strife. In essence, it follows the same script as the Alawite purge. Syria is a majority Arab Sunni Muslim country, while the Shiite offshoot Alawite sect and the minority Druze have long been marginalized and suppressed. For the past half-century, the Alawite Assad family ruled Syria, providing strong protection for these minority sects.

The Druze, numbering around one million and scattered across Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan, share a common fate. Especially those living within Israel and the Golan Heights enjoy a “super second-class citizen” status under Israel’s divide-and-rule policy. They maintain a unique bond with Israel’s Jewish majority, including military service, political participation, and access to civil rights. This “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” relationship makes the Druze a useful lever for Israel in reshaping regional dynamics and advancing the “Greater Israel” plan.

Since capturing the so-called “Middle East water tower” Golan Heights from Syria in 1967, Israel has occupied 1,200 square kilometers (about two-thirds of the Heights), incorporating many Druze unwilling to leave their homeland into its governance. For over 40 years before the fall of the Assad regime, Syria abided by a ceasefire agreement, maintaining a long cold peace with Israel, and the two sides held multiple negotiations over the Golan issue.

Over the past decade, as Iranian and Hezbollah influence grew, Syria became a proxy battlefield for Israeli airstrikes. Yet, Israel never actively sought to overthrow Syria, an important member of the “axis of resistance,” as they shared a common enemy — the “Islamic State” forces based on Salafist ideology. At the same time, Israel has increasingly expressed its intention to permanently annex the Golan Heights, a move recognized by the Trump administration in 2019.

By the end of 2024, the “Sham Liberation Organization” (formerly known as the “Al-Nusra Front”), which once belonged to “Al-Qaeda,” quickly seized Damascus, taking advantage of Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran and Hezbollah and the fact that Russia was unable to send troops to defend the Assad regime. Israel not only completely destroyed Syria’s sea, land, and air equipment, but also sent troops to occupy the buffer zone on the Golan Heights between both armies, expanding its so-called defense depth and incorporating Syria’s Druze population into its own protection zone.

The new Syrian regime abandoned the long-standing anti-American and anti-Jewish ideology and instead extended an olive branch to the United States and Israel, focusing its main efforts on reshaping relations with the Islamic world, integrating various armed factions, strengthening national unity, and economic reconstruction. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, replacing Russia and Iran and gaining key discourse power over the new Syria, took advantage of the Trump administration’s intention to withdraw from the Middle East and its “transactional diplomacy” to promote the normalization of US-Syria relations. This also seems to have created a new opportunity for the expansion of the Abraham Accords peace process by the United States and Israel, allowing Syria and Lebanon to follow in the footsteps of the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco in becoming new Arab partners of Israel.

On July 1 this year, Trump signed an executive order lifting the 46-year-old arms embargo and economic blockade on Syria and allowing US companies to participate in Syrian oil and gas development. This move by the United States aims to integrate Syria and Lebanon into the regional governance system, especially to bring them into the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. There are even reports that Syria and Israel held normalization talks in Azerbaijan, and Israel publicly emphasized that any form of Syria-Israel normalization will not come at the cost of giving up the Golan Heights. Israel’s Golan Heights policy, along with recent military pressure, internal interference, and territorial fragmentation in Syria, undoubtedly closed the door for Syria and Lebanon to join the Abraham Accords, or at least opened a chasm difficult to cross.

Although realpolitik prevails in the Middle East, no country is willing to normalize relations with Israel at the cost of giving up its inherent territory, nor does any government want to go down in history as one that sold out its nation. Egypt recovered the Sinai Peninsula in exchange for peace with Israel in 1978; the PLO reached the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993 under the principle of transitional autonomy; and Jordan established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1994 after resolving territorial disputes. As for the four Arab countries that signed the Abraham Accords, none of them had direct territorial disputes with Israel; they merely abandoned the Arab League’s collective consensus and gave up on their close kin, the Palestinians.

Israel’s latest acts of aggression and expansion have increased its sphere of influence in Syria, blatantly obstructed the Syrian government’s efforts to unify its territory and sovereignty, and established a “state within a state” in Syria in the name of protecting the Druze people. It also exploited the historical discord between the Druze and the Arab majority to further dismember Syria geographically, ethnically, and nationally, aggravating the dangers of Syria’s territorial fragmentation, lack of unified sovereignty, and disintegration of governance.

According to Arab News and other Arab, Turkish, and Iranian media, the Israeli government is playing the “Druze card” and even the “Kurdish card” amid Middle East chaos, aiming to strip the Druze-populated Syrian provinces of Suwayda, Quneitra, and southern Daraa from Damascus’s control. The ultimate goal is to build a “David Corridor” from the Golan Heights through southern Syria to Kurdish areas in Iraq and the Mesopotamian region, thereby expanding Israeli control over the heart of the Arab world and realizing the “Greater Israel” borders described in the Old Testament — a vast territory once inhabited by the ancestors of the Israelites, spanning the Mesopotamian region and the Nile Delta.

On April 1, Israel’s right-wing flagship media The Jerusalem Post published a commentary by Veysi Dag, an international relations scholar at Hebrew University, titled “The Abraham Peace Corridor: A Strategic Path for Stability and Cooperation in the Middle East.” It promoted the so-called “Abraham Peace Corridor” under the framework of the Abraham Accords, claiming that trade and commerce will consolidate regional and global security and “could become a vital lifeline for peaceful coexistence and economic prosperity in a region long plagued by conflict and division.” This rhetoric that beautifies expansionist policies is reminiscent of Japan’s militarist claim to build a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” while wreaking havoc on East Asia.

Objectively speaking, Israel previously openly supported the Iraqi Kurds’ “independence referendum,” and now claims to be the protector of Syrian Druze while secretly planning to carve up Syria with the “David Corridor.” This so-called new policy towards Syria, “selling dog meat under a sheep’s head” can only reinforce enmity between the two countries, weaken mutual trust, and erode public support in Syria, Lebanon, and other Arab states for reconciliation with Israel and expansion of the Abraham Accords.

Some analysts believe Israel’s new Syria policy of designating the area from south of Damascus to the Golan Heights and the Druze Mountains as a “demilitarized zone” and “protecting the Druze” may be a tactic to restrain the Syrian government and gain bargaining chips for negotiations over the Golan Heights. However, there is no indication that Israel, dominated by right-wing and far-right forces, will return the Golan Heights anytime soon. The Golan Heights is vital for Israel’s freshwater supply (40% of its source), a key grain and fruit-producing region sustaining its economy and agriculture for decades. More importantly, only 60 kilometers from Damascus, the Golan Heights is Israel’s strategic shield in the northeast, a national defense stronghold and strategic depth, and a choke point to contain Syria’s political center. For Syria and Lebanon, the Abraham Accords expected by Israel amount to an ultimatum: relinquish the Golan Heights and let Israel benefit unilaterally — a demand neither government nor people can accept.

Without returning the Golan Heights, the occupation-versus-resistance relationship between Israel and Syria/Lebanon cannot fundamentally change. Nationalism and theocratic ideology from both countries will continue to breed violent resistance and anti-Israel, anti-Semitic sentiment. Without sufficient and lasting security assurance, Israel will continue to pursue survival-of-the-fittest policies to maintain its illegal occupation, locking the region in a cycle of violence — a chicken-or-egg dilemma. When I visited the Golan Heights in 2011, a former Israeli Defense Forces officer who accompanied me said bluntly: “In a Middle East where only lions and sheep exist, Israel would rather be the lion.”

Of course, if Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah completely shake off Iran’s influence, withdraw from the “Axis of Resistance,” abandon the traditional philosophy of struggle, and voluntarily propose normalization of relations with Israel in exchange for the return of occupied territory, it may become an important opportunity for the expansion of the Abraham Accords. The question is whether the Syrian government and Lebanon’s Hezbollah can break out of the established ideological mold? The bigger question is whether the Israeli government—especially the right-wing and far-right forces—can let go of the decades-old fantasy of a “Greater Israel”? The prospects are clearly rather pessimistic, especially since Israel will not easily give up the land it has annexed, and the Israeli far-right forces will not readily abandon their habitual practice of “creating faits accomplis.”

At present, Syria’s territory is fragmented, and major powers and hostile forces both regional and external are supporting and manipulating proxy armed groups. National unification, political transition, and economic reconstruction remain in shambles. The weak new regime shows no sign of daring to declare a “land for peace” ice-breaking stance. Netanyahu’s coalition government is also on the verge of collapse due to infighting and unrest. The entire state of Israel remains in a state of war, and adopting an offensive diplomacy is undoubtedly the best way to divert internal contradictions. These factors make the dream of an expanded Abraham Accords hard to reflect the reality of the Middle East—particularly the complex and brutal disputes between Israel and Syria, and Israel and Lebanon.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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What did the Israeli attack in Syria reveal?

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Following Israel’s strike on the Abu al-Duhur Airbase in Syria on August 18, relations between Damascus and Tel Aviv have reportedly broken down. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Sheybani announced in the wake of the attack that all communication with Israel had been severed. “We anticipate that talks regarding a security agreement with Israel will resume in the near future. At present, we do not trust Israel. Our priority is the cessation of attacks against our sovereign territory,” he stated.

The minister’s utter helplessness reverberates through his words.

The post-Assad regime in Damascus ascended to power on the back of American and Israeli support. Consequently, the United States and Israel stand as the primary arbiters of Syria’s destiny. It is precisely for this reason that the Damascus administration has abandoned all claims to its rights over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights—virtually resigning itself to the occupation and striking it from the agenda. Upon seizing power, it pledged immediate fealty to Washington: “We will pose no security threat to Israel, and we shall thwart anyone who attempts to do so.” It operated under the delusion that it could forge a functional relationship with Israel—led by Netanyahu, a perpetrator of genocide and a convicted war criminal—by appeasing it through concessions. It was gravely mistaken.

For Israel currently holds sway over a substantial portion of Syrian territory. It establishes military outposts across the country, carries out airstrikes at will, and deploys its armor unimpeded.

Similarly, the Israeli-backed PYD-YPG terrorist organization exercises control over an expanse of land vastly disproportionate to its actual strength—territory exceptionally rich in energy resources—solely through the patronage of the US and Israel. Leveraging that very support, it wrenches outsized political, military, and administrative concessions from the Damascus government.

Evidently, the displacement of Iranian and Russian influence in Syria by that of the United States and Israel has brought profound satisfaction to certain circles in our country. Yet what these quarters fail to see, refuse to see, or cannot bring themselves to acknowledge even when confronted with it, is this fundamental reality: Washington envisions a Middle Eastern order wherein Israel commands supremacy, projects expanding power, and dictates terms, while Türkiye raises no objection whatsoever and instead accommodates itself to this architecture. To compel Türkiye’s acquiescence, the US is actively deploying its vast and varied arsenal of leverage.

Lest we forget, the United States had already brought several Arab states to the desired threshold through the Abraham Accords. That process was ultimately intended to culminate in the open, formal consecration of the de facto rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That trajectory has not been abandoned; it has merely been placed on ice for the time being. Behind the scenes, Washington maintains an intense flurry of diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Once the wider Middle East, the Islamic world, and the Arab sphere have been fully conditioned to accept the ongoing reality in Gaza—and once the oppressed, grieving, and beleaguered Palestinian people have been driven entirely from their ancestral homeland—this shelved agenda will be revived.

We know that the Zionist establishment in Israel, aligned with American imperialism, chose not to strike Iran first before confronting the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, the Shia Crescent, and Tehran’s proxy forces. It executed the exact inverse: it struck first at Syria, at Hamas in Palestine, and at Hezbollah in Lebanon. Only after eroding their efficacy did it turn its sights directly upon Iran. In Syria, the previous regime held out far longer than anticipated—enduring for 13 years and 8 months. As a consequence of the civil war that erupted in March 2011, Assad was ultimately overthrown, finding refuge in Moscow.

When 61 years of Baathist rule, including 53 years of the Assad dynasty, came to a close in December 2024, the emergent regime in Damascus wasted no time in pledging its allegiance to the United States, to Israel, and to the Arab states that backed it, chief among them Saudi Arabia. It proclaimed that it would erect a bulwark against Iran, raise not the slightest objection to Israel, and execute Washington’s directives to the letter.

A broad demographic in Türkiye that welcomed this turn of events swiftly began asserting—under the banner of religious and sectarian fraternity—that this transition worked entirely in Türkiye’s favor. The sheer fallacy of this premise was exposed in short order.

And how was it exposed?

It was exposed by Israel immediately laying the groundwork for a Syria partitioned into four enclaves (Druze, Kurdish, Alawite, and Arab). It was exposed by the renewed revelation that the US-Israel axis intends, sooner or later, to carve up Syria along sectarian and ethnic fault lines—mirroring the precedents of Lebanon and Iraq—in a country roughly composed of 70 percent Sunni Arabs, 10 percent Alawites, 10 percent Kurds, 5 percent Christians, and 5 percent Druze and Turkmens.

It was exposed by the fact that the PYD-YPG terrorist organization, even if denied the entirety of its territorial ambitions, has managed to secure a portion of its political, military, and administrative demands through US–Israeli patronage, thereby being permitted to preserve its existence by settling for a reduced perimeter.

And it was exposed by the resilience of Iran, which, despite suffering immense exhaustion and attrition in the face of American and Israeli aggression, refused to capitulate and maintained its resistance. It was exposed by the failure of the US-Israel tandem to achieve its overarching political and military objectives in Iran, bringing to the fore once again the undeniable truth that Iran possesses an institutionalized state tradition, a national consciousness, and an armed force of a depth and resilience that defy any comparison to Libya, Iraq, or Syria.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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