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The illusion of retreat

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Editor’s note: Originally published in English on the Substack newsletter “Worldlines – The threads connecting geopolitics” and in German on the NachDenkSeiten portal by Nel Bonilla, a PhD candidate specializing in the Sociology of Migration, Social Geography, and Conflict Studies, this analysis emphasizes that the Trump administration’s recent signs of softening toward Iran do not represent a retreat but rather a transition to a more sustainable and ruthless model of hybrid warfare. According to Bonilla, Washington is adopting a “Bunker State” strategy that involves economic strangulation through naval control, covert sabotages, and targeted assassinations instead of a large-scale military invasion. In this new model, sanctions and physical blockades against oil tankers are structuralized as a permanent mechanism of war, while U.S. troops in the region are positioned as “tripwires” to create a justification for self-defense in the event of a potential escalation. Drawing on the examples of Venezuela and Cuba, Bonilla identifies that the U.S. aims to sever Eurasian connectivity by destabilizing key nodal points integrated into the multipolar world order. Ultimately, Bonilla characterizes the current situation not as a move toward de-escalation, but as a form of silent war that never officially begins and never ends, conducted to prevent the construction of a multipolar order.


The illusion of retreat

Why the West’s “de‑escalation” toward Iran is just a quieter war

Nel Bonilla

Worldlines – The threads connecting geopolitics

Feb 10, 2026

A narrative is gaining traction: faced with rising risks and Iranian warnings, the Trump administration is supposedly backing away from confrontation with Tehran. A reported partial pullback of a carrier group, talks in Muscat in Oman, and a softer US tone are being interpreted as signs of restraint, recalibration, even a new realism in Washington. This reading is dangerously short‑sighted. It misunderstands the strategic logic now governing the Atlantic system, what I have called the Bunker State. What looks like de‑escalation is, within that logic, simply the transition to a more sustainable, more ruthless form of warfare. The transatlantic system is shifting to the method best suited to the long‑term management of its own signs of decline: economic strangulation through maritime control, covert destabilization operations, and kinetic strikes held in reserve. The form of warfare has changed. The objective has not.

Most mainstream analysis still uses a 20th‑century template: escalation equals visible troop build‑ups, massive bombing, and invasion, or at least the preparation for such operations. Pause those, or stop threatening them publicly, and you have “de‑escalation.” Viewed through that lens, these recent developments do look like a retreat: The reported partial repositioning of the USS Abraham Lincoln from the Arabian Sea. The diplomatic choreography of indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, and media stories that frame renewed sanctions as a bargaining chip instead of actually being part of an ongoing war effort against Iran.

But this reading ignores that the blockade preparations and sanctions architecture remain fully in place and are being expanded, not relaxed. Further, covert and financial warfare against Iran is intensifying, not slowing. Last but not least, the US force posture in the Gulf consisting of 30,000–40,000 troops in range of Iranian missiles, has not meaningfully changed. The story is therefore not one of retreat, but of open preparation for a condition of a permanent hybrid war that the transatlantic system now prefers.

From Airstrikes to Economic Warfare: Blockade & Siege as Primary Weapons

If we define war only as something that happens when bombs fall or parliaments formally declare it, we miss the fact that the hybrid war on Iran is already in full swing. Since late 2025 Washington’s measures have added physical control of energy flows to the sanctions already in place.

In December 2025, Trump ordered a complete naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers bound to or from Venezuela, a step that, under classic international law definitions, clearly qualifies as an “act of war.” In Iran’s case, the same administration is advancing not (yet) a formally declared “total blockade,” but a rapidly narrowing de facto oil blockade: After nuclear talks in Oman stalled in early February 2026, Washington announced additional sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, targeting firms and intermediaries that trade in Iranian crude and petrochemicals. In parallel, the State Department has begun systematically dismantling Iran’s “shadow fleet.” In a February 2026 statement, it designated 14 shadow‑fleet tankers as blocked property and sanctioned 15 entities and 2 individuals involved in transporting or trading Iranian‑origin oil, petroleum products, or petrochemicals, vowing to “continue to act against the network of shippers and traders.” Further, US forces have physically seized multiple tankers: the Marinera after a two‑week chase in the Atlantic near Iceland; the Sophia, carrying two million barrels of Venezuelan crude in the Caribbean; and other ships linked to Iran’s shadow fleet.

This is a targeted effort, and not just symbolism: Iran exports around 1.3–1.8 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 90% of it to China. Cutting a substantial fraction of that is functionally equivalent to sustained strikes on the main arteries of Iran’s economy.

“Making Iran Broke Again”

Trump officials have been unusually explicit about what they are doing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boasted that the maximum pressure campaign was “designed to collapse Iran’s already buckling economy,” to “collapse Iranian oil exports,” and to “shut down Iran’s oil sector.” He celebrated the results: currency depreciation, bank failures, dollar shortages, import paralysis, and then added:

“This is why people took to the street… this is economic statecraft. No shots fired.”

Addressing Wall Street at the Economic Club of New York in March 2025, Bessent said it even more bluntly: the goal was “making Iran broke again.” The room of financiers applauded.

Sanctions as Structural Warfare

What we are watching is the structuralization of sanctions as a permanent state of war. World Bank and UN human rights data show a clear pattern: After sanctions were eased under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, Iranian inflation fell to about 7% in 2016. When Trump tore up the deal unilaterally in 2018 and re‑imposed sanctions in violation of the UN Security Council resolution, inflation shot back up into the 40–50% range and has stayed there. UN special rapporteurs have repeatedly warned that unilateral US sanctions on Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela violate international law and risk “man‑made humanitarian catastrophes,” with starvation and denial of basic rights likely outcomes.

Of course, none of this is conceptually new regarding the use of sanctions. A 1960 State Department memo on Cuba already articulated the blueprint: the goal of embargo was to “weaken the economic life of Cuba” and “bring about hunger, desperation, and overthrow of government.” What is new is the Bunkerization of this logic: plans once treated as policy options are now embedded as standing structure, applied by default to any state that enables multipolar resilience.

Venezuela as a Test Case: Securitocracy and the War on Multipolarity

What unfolded in Venezuela on 3 January 2026 should not be seen as an aberration, nor as a sudden escalation driven by short‑term domestic events. This was far from any such notion. Instead, tt was the execution of a geopolitical operation that has been intellectually, institutionally, and doctrinally prepared for some time. Calling it a geopolitical coup d’état is an apt description of what unfolded that day. Venezuela has lived under various forms of siege since Hugo Chávez broke with post‑Cold War hemispheric subordination. But the current phase is qualitatively different. It is unfolding in a world where US primacy is no longer taken for granted, growth outside Western control no longer automatically leads to collapse (or rather being collapsed), and multipolar alignments pose a structural, not merely ideological, challenge, for Western power elites. The anxiety driving this escalation is that alternative financial, diplomatic, and security relationships can persist and can grow. That is intolerable to a declining hegemon whose power rests increasingly on coercive leverage.

One of the most revealing articulations of this logic appears in the work of R. Evan Ellis, Latin America Research Professor at the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. His September 2025 article “Finally the Endgame for Venezuela?” models how escalation might unfold. Force in today’s geopolitical context becomes a signaling mechanism where kinetic action becomes communication. At least coming from the US.

Ellis describes recent operations as demonstrations of “willingness to escalate beyond prior restraints”, a phrase that captures escalation as iterative testing of thresholds. If symbolic force fails, limited strikes follow. If those fail, escalation continues, up to a “Just Cause‑like operation,” explicitly invoking the 1989 invasion of Panama and the seizure of Noriega. Sovereignty in the hemisphere is framed as conditionally revocable:

“The recent attack against the speedboat is a demonstration of the US government’s willingness to escalate beyond prior restraints. The US has a range of options moving forward, which include seeing if this demonstration of force was sufficient to cause Maduro to ameliorate US concerns to additional, limited strikes all the way to a Just Cause-like operation to bring Maduro and his cronies to justice in the United States like what happened to Manuel Noriega.”

At the same time, Ellis assures his readers no long‑term occupation is intended; the force assembled is insufficient for sustained control. This reflects post‑Iraq and post‑Afghanistan constraints of outcomes without entanglement, control without responsibility. He anticipates violent fragmentation, criminal competition, and sabotage after regime removal but frames these as externalities to be “managed,” not decisive arguments against intervention. Responsibility for the chaos is displaced onto Venezuelan actors or external “spoilers” like Russia, China, and Cuba. Destabilization is both predicted and disowned.

What makes Ellis particularly significant is his position inside the US defense apparatus. As an Army War College SSI (Strategic Studies Institute) research professor since 2014 and a former member of State’s Policy Planning Staff, he operates at the interface of intelligence, operations, and strategic narrative. His analyses are best read as pre‑structured cognition emerging from within the planning ecosystem itself.

In a parallel piece on China in Latin America (titled Preparing for PRC Military Actions in Latin America), Ellis admits that Chinese security activity in the hemisphere remains empirically modest: arms gifts, training exchanges, limited port calls. Yet he insists that for the Pentagon these must be interpreted “through a lens of the threats that they potentially pose.” Empirical modesty becomes irrelevant; what matters is latent potential. Commercial projects are re‑coded as dual‑use, diplomatic engagements as pre‑positioning, civilian infrastructure as future battlespace.

Read together, his Venezuela and China work exemplify the securitocratic mindset: societies are understood as systems to be disrupted, stabilized, or denied to rivals. Democracy is just a variable in this understanding and sovereignty a conditional status.

The 2023 RAND report Great Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America—written for the US Air and Space Forces—makes this explicit: the region is treated as a strategic rear area, politics subordinated to military necessity. The core tasks are to sustain proxies, prepare to deter or deny the use of Chinese dual-use assets in the region, and choose the military option over diplomacy by preparing for “increased demand for U.S. Air Force assets in the theater.”

What this example of Venezuela goes to show is that the intensity and form of Bunker pressure on a state is a function of its positional value as a node or chokepoint and its distance from US force hubs. Thus, for example, Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela are in the inner ring of the American bunker; Iran is in an outer ring where siege is still possible but more contested. The closer the node, the less room there is for autonomous development. Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico are, thus, in a weaker position because their location in the US security perimeter and hemispheric strategy makes them easier to blockade, easier to infiltrate, and easier to punish without high kinetic cost to Washington. This much is laid out in the above mentioned RAND paper.

In this zone, the combination of distance (very short), projection capacity (maximal), and historical entitlement (“our” hemisphere) produces a specific pattern of pressure that Iran or even Russia never experience in quite the same way. Indeed, Latin America is part of a broader strategy to localize supply chains in the hemisphere, reducing dependence on China and preparing for a war that Washington China‑hawks openly timetable for around 2030. Thus, the pressure is not just to trade but to align national development with US rearmament needs. In a securitocratic logic where Latin America is coded as rear area, commercial dependency will deepen its vulnerability. For the case of Mexico, for example, the more central its minerals, logistics, and manufacturing become to US war planning, the more justified future interventions will appear whenever Mexico’s choices deviate from Washington’s expectations.

Iran, on the other hand, is more resilient partly because it sits at a different distance and theater, has hard deterrent tools and the opportunity to develop them (e.g. its missiles, the strait of Hormuz), and it can plug into Eurasian support networks through Russia and China. Latin American countries cannot simply replicate such strategies being under US naval and financial dominance. Still, the relevance for Iran is straightforward: the methods tested in the Caribbean basin—blockade, decapitation, elite reconfiguration under external pressure—are now being adapted to the Persian Gulf. The Bunker State is exporting its laboratory protocol from one node of multipolar connectivity to another.

US and Israeli analysts are now explicitly discussing this Venezuela model as a template for Iran. A CNN analysis from January 2026 spoke openly of “leadership decapitation without regime change” and suggested that Washington could “reference Venezuela as an example” when planning options for Iran. Meanwhile, Israel’s intelligence service has demonstrated unmatched reach inside Iran: In June 2025, during “Operation Rising Lion,” the Mossad and allied units utilized pre-positioned weapons and covert teams to destroy Iranian missile launchers and air defense systems near Tehran, while assassinating at least 14 nuclear scientists and numerous Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. Investigations show that the Mossad had smuggled precision weapons and explosives into Iran, maintained caches for months or years, and coordinated teams deep within Tehran, all while evading Iranian security.

Iranian authorities announced in January 2026 that they had foiled new sabotage plans linked to the Mossad, which targeted oil, gas, electricity, and telecommunications infrastructure in several provinces; proof that this clandestine network is active and not a thing of the past. This is precisely the kind of infrastructure for covert degradation and targeted leadership assassination required to reproduce a Venezuela-style decapitation attempt against Iran. Accordingly, the goal is not full occupation; it is about generating sustained attrition pressure, shattering the cohesion of the chain of command, and forcing a surviving rump government into “strategic submission”; meaning the acceptance of the dismantling of nuclear and missile programs, the surrender of energy sovereignty, and the alignment of foreign policy with US lines.

The Slow Strangulation

Why is this method preferred? The current US military strategy is not geared toward decisive and politically costly wars. It is constructed for permanent crisis management and permanent attrition. Within this logic, the following applies: A large, openly declared war against Iran would be risky, expensive, and domestically explosive. A form of blockade combined with sanctions, sabotage, and intermittent strikes, on the other hand, is cheaper, deniable, and far more flexible.

Indeed, within this process of slow strangulation the diplomatic confusion is part of the attrition. While US envoys may dangle the prospect of a “deal” the reality on the water will be one of a relentless escalation of piracy and interdiction. This confusion aims to create a factional conflict inside the targeted nations: a “pro-deal” elite is tempted by false promises of relief, while the military reality on the ground (or at sea) tightens the noose. The US strategy is to use this diplomatic fog to delay a unified response from Russia, China, and Iran, allowing the “war at sea” to dismantle their trade routes piecemeal before they can agree on a joint naval defense.

A strangled Iran bleeds China, which depends on Iranian oil and would have to invest money and political capital to keep Tehran afloat. Furthermore, it could weaken Russia, which must provide weapons, technology, and diplomatic cover to avoid losing a key partner. It would deter the Global South from pursuing similar independent projects. Finally, such an approach provides an endless pretext for the US troop presence in the Gulf, justifying budgets and domestic securitization. This is a strategy with lower risk and higher yield than a dramatic bombing campaign, the political blowback of which could accelerate Western disorder.

The Tripwire Logic: 40,000 Soldiers as Sacrificial Assets

One of the most telling indicators that this is not de-escalation is the force posture. There are still roughly 30,000 to 40,000 US troops scattered across bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman; all within range of Iranian short-range missiles and drones. From a conventional perspective, this is insanity: Why leave so many forces exposed if you fear escalation? From the perspective of current US military strategy, such a thing could be intentional.

These troops serve as tripwires. If Iran responds to the blockade or sabotage with missile strikes on these bases, Washington instantly gains domestic legitimacy for massive “self-defense” operations. Transatlantic functional elites are, after all, increasingly willing to tolerate hundreds or even thousands of military casualties if doing so helps preserve the broader architecture of Western dominance. US soldiers would be used here as sacrificial proxies in an attempt to freeze or slow down multipolarity.

“Few Resources”

One might assume that a relatively modest visible military engagement, one carrier group, a few extra squadrons, no mass mobilization, signals no serious intent to confront Iran. However, the small footprint is itself a clue to the nature of the strategy: A potential economic blockade, as well as the enforcement of an oil embargo and the tanker interdiction measures already underway, require patrols, not armadas. A naval blockade does not require six aircraft carriers. It requires just enough presence and lethality to make commercial shipping, insurers, and third states bow to US “sanctions enforcement.” That is exactly the scale we are seeing. Covert sabotage costs nothing politically, and deniable intelligence teams and cyber units do not show up on satellite images. Decapitation strikes require special forces, not armored divisions.

Overall, the permanent containment of economic connectivity requires no occupation, only enough threat and instability to make long-term investment and integration unattractive and risky. Finally, on the structural level, the Brookings paper Which Path to Persia? from 2009 treated maritime pressure, sanctions, and airstrikes as separate options between which a rational hegemon could choose. In today’s situation, these options have solidified into a structure: a near-permanent posture of ships, bases, and embargo mechanisms around key nodes (Hormuz, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico). The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is there because the US government now assumes that the containment of Iran at sea is a default condition.

In other words: This US operation is not resource-light because Washington has lost interest in destabilizing Iran, but because the chosen mode of warfare is blockade and destabilization through covert actions. The fact that the US force is insufficient for “victory” is a signal that the goal is ongoing attrition.

Not Policy, but Structure

Nothing of what is currently happening is conceptually “new.” The Brookings paper Which Path to Persia? from 2009 already cataloged options: sanctions, covert actions, proxy war, airstrikes, and invasion. Many of today’s tools appeared there as blueprints. However, we can discern a qualitative shift: In 2009, these were policies—positions on a menu that were selected, combined, or discarded based on a cost-benefit calculation. By the mid-2020s, they have hardened into structure. Once the anti-entropic logic is accepted—”we must stop multipolar integration at any cost”—sanctions, blockades, and covert destabilization become permanent instruments of the decaying unipolar order.

The point, therefore, is to keep Iran weak long enough so that it cannot function as a stable bridge between China, Russia, and the Global South. The more fundamental goal is systemic degradation: to transform Iran into a chronically unstable, economically depleted, politically fragmented space; a bad bet for long-term Eurasian connectivity.

Exactly the same logic underlies the maximum pressure on Cuba and Venezuela: Both are ideological enemies and geostrategic chokepoints; Cuba at the entrance to the Gulf of Mexico, Venezuela in the Caribbean energy theater. Shattering their sovereign functionality narrows the options for Mexico, Brazil, and others, and tightens the Western grip on sea lanes and regional logistics. Seen in this way, we are witnessing a brutal but coherent geopolitical triage through the application of controlled disorder to key nodes (Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and potentially others) before they can fully build up and connect into an alternative network.

The Contest of Two Logics

All of this is happening against the backdrop of declining US material and symbolic power due to deindustrialization, debt overhang, political polarization, and fading legitimacy. The emerging military strategies are a symptom of an adaptation to this weakness. The confrontation with Iran is thus a theater in a broader struggle between two organizing principles: on one side, a logic that seeks to enforce and control the preservation of hierarchy through the fragmentation and coercive control of other countries. On the other side stands the multipolar logic, which threatens this US-led status quo by fostering sovereignty through connectivity and diversification.

The logic of the declining hegemon weaponizes internal fractures. As geopolitical analyst John Helmer warns, the US side has adopted a “gangster” logic of extortion, using discriminatory tariffs and the physical war at sea to force a lethal wedge into the ruling elites of the non-aligned world. Helmer observes that in every key capital—Tehran, Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi—the US is actively fostering a schism between a “business-as-usual” faction (oligarchs and technocrats desperate to make a deal and relieve economic pressure) and a “resistance” faction (military and intelligence services who argue that any concession will only encourage Washington to up the ante). By targeting nations individually with discriminatory pain, the US aims to make the cost of maintaining the multipolar alliance higher than the price of submission, essentially betting that the deal-making factions will eventually tear up their own strategic partnerships to save their domestic economies. This hybrid war, therefore, is a race against time: can the resistance factions consolidate its alliance’s defenses before the business factions capitulate to the economic strangulation?

Iran is already responding within this multipolar logic. Iran has adopted a doctrine of anticipatory defense, signaling a willingness to strike US bases and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz if pushed to the wall, while deepening economic and military ties with Moscow and Beijing as lifelines against sanctions. US power elites are betting that they can inflict enough pain on key nodes like Iran fast enough to break the coherence of this emerging network before their own internal contradictions (social rifts, economic exhaustion, political crisis) break them. The critical unknown is the breaking point: for whom costs become unsustainable first.

Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (Vintage Books, 1991). This passage illustrates that the goal is no longer a decisive victory, but the establishment of a “permanent economy” of strangulation that manages any country as a contained object.

Closing Notes: The War Has Changed Theater

Describing the current phase as “backing away” from Iran is to misread the nature of modern imperial power. It requires no thunderous invasions or a televised “Shock and Awe” campaign. The decaying hegemon can and will wage a silent, brutal war through economic suffocation (sanctions, blockades, financial exclusion), disintegration (sabotage, assassinations, cyberattacks), and narrative warfare (cycles of provocation, response, and legitimation that frame every act of self-defense as aggression). And it is already doing so. While leaving the option of kinetic actions and operations openly and visibly on the table.

The imperial superficial narrative of nuclear weapons, terrorism, and human rights only obscures what is really at stake. Namely: connectivity, which Iran represents as a Eurasian land bridge; the danger of de-dollarization; alternative state ideologies and ways of organizing societies; and, eventually, a demonstration effect—proof that resistance against the US hegemon can be successful. The goal is the prevention of the consolidation of a multipolar world, not the achievement of peace or stability.

Calling this “de-escalation” is a capitulation before the responsibility to call war by its name when it is waged by other means. For the goal remains the destruction or disabling of any bridge between East and West—any functioning connective tissue of a multipolar order. The only thing that has changed is the form: from discrete political options to a permanent operating structure; from wars that begin and end, to wars that officially never begin and officially never end. It is the war of a dying hegemonial order against the infrastructure of its replacement.

Diplomacy

Middle East faces insecurity, massacres, and genocide; Iranian diplomat Soltanieh declares

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Editor’s note: In his address at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26, Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s former representative to the IAEA, nuclear scientist, and diplomat, examined the unraveling of Western hegemony and the dynamics driving the transition toward a multipolar new world order. Drawing on more than four decades of international diplomatic experience, he shared firsthand accounts of how global bodies such as the UN, the IAEA, the CWC, and the BWC have been weaponized, particularly by the US and its Western allies. He stressed that the Middle East has been forced to pay the price for historical European crimes and antisemitism through the expulsion of Palestinians and the ongoing genocide in Palestine. Furthermore, he presented concrete instances showing how the NPT regime and international nuclear inspection mechanisms are applied with double standards favoring the West and Israel, with Israel’s acts of aggression being actively covered up by these very institutions.


In the name of God, the most gracious and the most merciful distinguished colleagues,

At the outset allow me to express my sincere appreciation to organizers, Harici and European Transcontinental Initiative, for invitation to this important conference, at this crucial historical time juncture in the fragmented world, and to wish a successful conference.

Some scholars are of the view that we are at the verge of the End of the Western Century and beginning of a Post-Hegemonic World Order.

The simple question is: How has the historical relationship between East and West evolved from Western imperial and liberal dominance toward a contested multipolar order, and how can the transition be managed without reproducing the cultural homogenization, geopolitical confrontation and technological domination associated with hegemony?

In order to make a careful analysis of the “Transition of the East–West Relations, From Western Hegemony to a Multipolar World Order”, one has to identify the main characteristics in Western domination structure that caused it to undermine itself, which in turn would point to some key features in the building block of a new Eastern-oriented Multipolar System.

The emerging multipolar order should not be understood simply as the replacement of western (mainly American) hegemony by Chinese, Russian or another national hegemony. Rather, it represents a deeper contest over the political meaning of modernity itself: whether the future international system will continue to be organized around a universalizing liberal model historically associated with the West, or whether different civilizations and political traditions will coexist within a pluralistic system of states. A peaceful transition will depend not on the restoration of unipolarity or on a new “clash of civilizations,” but on reconstructing international institutions around political equality, cultural pluralism, strategic restraint, technological governance and social solidarity.

In this paper the new world order is analyzed from the prism of West Asia, nowadays known as Middle East.

It has to be recalled that bitter fact that European Jewish communities experienced centuries of discrimination, persecution and antisemitic violence.

European antisemitism created conditions in which the search for a secure Jewish homeland became increasingly urgent. In fact, western powers decided to expel almost all Jews from Europe to the Middle East, to establish a western entity in the heart of East, West Asia, Middle East, by expelling millions of Palestinian from their homeland. Since then, Middle East is facing continuous insecurity, carnage and lastly genocide, in a nutshell Middle East is paying the Price for crimes in Europe.

Given the over 40 years of experience in multilateral diplomacy, working closely with UN and other international organizations, I was asked to focus my analysis on performance of such international institutions during so called “World Order or the Post World War-II era”. The following are part of my own memoir with well documented evidences on instrumental uses of western countries, mostly United State of international organizations.  They are neither the position of Iran nor that of VIIMES:

Having in mind the inherited shortcomings of the UN Charter, statutes of such organizations, provisions of relevant treaties and conventions, one could easily notice very disappointing record of negative performance of UN and other international organizations, due to western countries manipulations and imposed obstacles.

I just try to inform distinguished participants some real events which I have personally been involved and witnessed:

Based on text of NPT, it is the most discriminatory security treaty, dividing its parties into “Haves “ , P5, and  “ Have Nots”. NWSs are exempted from any inspections by the IAEA. Its article 6, calling for nuclear disarmament has no deadline, no accountability.

Countries of NAM (Non-aligned Movement) proposed a paragraph on Banning nuclear tests for the final document. US, UK, USSR, the 3 Nuclear possessors and party to NPT opposed.

Note: France and China had not joined NPT then.

After 8 hours negotiation until 4 am, at the sideline of the plenary, at the Mission of Sweden, between 3 representatives of NAM, including myself, with representatives of three NWSs, no agreement was made, due to objection of US delegation even to Chair proposal which all agreed to go along with. Therefore, the Conference could not have final document and failed.

NAM, specifically countries in the Middle East emphasized on Establishment of Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in ME. I recall Iran and then Egypt originally had proposed in 1974. Western countries, specially US agreed with condition of indefinite extension of NPT, which would have expired after 25 years. As today, US has not only not complied with the 1995 obligation, but has prevented any other attempt in this regard, to fulfilling Israeli demands, not giving up nuclear weapons and not joining NPT.

US opposed the adoption of the agenda of conference which included the tradition f item of review the implementation of decision of last Review Conference in 2000, since the conference had adopted 13 unequivocal undertakings for nuclear disarmaments. The Conference collapsed.

The first time, after intensive negotiations, the conference accepted by consensus to convene a conference on “Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East “ in 2012. After 2 years preparation, shortly before the conference planned to be held in Helsinki, the US (Obama Administration, who has adopted the decision in 2010) unilaterally indefinitely postpend the conference, with disregards of all state parties, in order to satisfy Israel.

The Conference collapsed due to objections of US , UK and Canada to the text of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East.

IAEA was established after the Moto of “Atom for Peaces” by President of US, the only country used nuclear weapons in history. Since then, quantity and quality of US nuclear arsenal have been drastically increased. More countries have joined nuclear club!

IAEA Members States are 3 groups: NNWS parties to NPT subjected to IAEA Safeguards, NWSs parties to NPT (P5), and Non- party to NPT (India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea), exempted from any inspections. Absolute discrimination

IAEA safeguards, inspections which has to be “Nuclear material-oriented Safeguards” is changed into “Intelligence information-oriented Safeguards” which in in full contravention with the spirit and letter of the IAEA Statutes.

Number of seats are 35 as was the case over 40 years ago, 10 seats called “designated seats” are permanent, and their distribution is in favor of the West. Impartial analyses shall show the murky records of its decisions/resolutions, which have politicized and polarized this so-called international technical organization. The organization expected to promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy has turned into self-styled UN Watchdog with discrimination among member states, P5 and 4 others are exempted from any inspections while others are under comprehensive safeguards, and even a couple of them such as Iran are under the most intrusive inspections much beyond the routine safeguards. The IAEA has shamefully been blocked from conducting preventive or remedial actions in cases of military attacks against peaceful nuclear facilities under its full scope safeguards. Provisions of the IAEA Statutes on structure, mandate, and authority of the Board of Governors has to be reformed by Amendment Conference.

Attacks against nuclear facilities under the IAEA safeguards:

The taboo was broken for the first time ion history by Israel, attacking Iraqi research reactor under construction by France, in 1981.

During the IAEA General Conference in 1982, the US threatened that f a resolution condemning Israel violation is passed, US shall; withdraw from Agency’s membership thus almost 25% of budget will disappear! Iran, myself as representative was sure it was a bluff since US shall not leave IAEA, it need it to put pressure on developing countries, proposed that if US leave, it will compensate financial gap, thus encouraged like minded countries, in the ME and NAM at large to support the draft resolution, even if was proposed by Iraq, Sadam regime, having war imposed on Iran. The resolution passed, US and French delegations left conference room as a protest to decision by General Conference, but continued membership!

Sadam Regime several times attacked Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran from 1984 to 1988, but neither the IAEA Board of Governors, nor the General Conference condemned, since the whole west were supporting Sadam Regime.

During General Conference in 1990, I propose a resolution which was adopted. According to the resolution 533, any attack and threat of attack against nuclear installations under IAEA Safeguards, constitute violation of UN Charter, IAEA Statute, and international law, and UNSC has to immediately act. All member states are called upon to assist the attacked country.

Israel attacked Syrian site under the pretext of constructing a research reactor, not nuclear weapons. Despite all inspections made and IAEA was not able to definitely prove the allegation, the western countries, US and EU proposed a resolution to the Board of Governors, which was marginally, with only 17 votes, approved. Rather than the aggressor, Israel, the attacked country was sent to UNSC.

Israel and US attacked all nuclear facilities under full scope safeguards in June 2025 and again after February 2026. The IAEA Board of Governors and the Director General did not passed resolution or condemned the aggressions which were in full contravention with IAEA resolution 533.

Note: In a clear double standard and hypocrisy, US and EU summitted a resolution against Rusia on Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, based on resolution of 533 of 1990, which I proposed, and S and some EU members voted against it then.

Paradoxically, Board of Governor in its recent session decided to remove Syrian issue from agenda after almost 2 decades, under the unfounded technical allegations, since western countries has good relation with new Government. Double Standard and proof of politization of the IAEA

After Chernobyl Nuclear Accident in 1986, negotiation on drafting two conventions, “Early Notification of Nuclear Accident”, and “Emergency Assistance in Case of Nuclear Accident” was intensive held in Vienna, where I was representing on behalf of Islamic Republic of Iran.

The first week, US and Russia announce that both should be exempted from reporting any accident in their nuclear facilities. I rejected any discrimination, specifically by exemption of countries having very active nuclear activities and facilities with more probability of nuclear accidents which shall have transboundary release of radioactive material to other countries in world.

I am proud that after 3 weeks of political challenges, finally they were forced to compromise, and we sat together and prepared the text of article -1 , on scope of the convention accepted by all member states.

Sadam used chemical weapons. About 100 thousand Iranian were killed and injured. Undeniable published documents are available that western countries gave Chemical weapons to Iraq.

Islamic Republic of Iran actively participated in negotiation on Chemical Weapon Convention (CWC) in Geneva, signed and approve it. US and Russia did not destroy their huge chemical weapons, within 10 years dead line envisaged by the convention, thus asked General Conference to exceptionally extend time, bad precedent. Russia did so, but used even went beyond the dead line.

Syrian join CWC, with encouragement of Russi and Iran. It compromised its national security, since Israel has not joined the CWC, for the sake of international security. While parts of Syria were under the control of foreign forces and terrorist, it obviously could not give complete declaration. Western countries created political tension and agenda at the OPCW, to put political pressure on Assad Government. Now the agenda on Syria which involved the OPCW, under technical pretext, obviously with political motivation for over a decade, will be removed since wester countries have good relation with new government.

Almost 10 years of negation on Protocol for Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in Geneva, aiming at establishment of an international organization, similar to the IAEA and OPCW, collapsed, by US official objection in 2002. The rolling text is now in archive. Absolute disregards for all countries genially opted for disarmament of WMD. Had the such organization been established, it could have helped the world public, facing panic with thousands of dead as the result of Covid outbreak. Being involved in that negotiation, I proposed our EU counterparts to let establish the said organization based on Rolling text, though US is absent, but they privately said that bioindustry in EU will not permit governments to do so, as long as their competitors in US are not covered by the protocol of the BWC. This is another indication that such humanitarian safety and security concerns have no place in western policy.

Due to time constraint, it suffices just to remind some factual cases:

UN has not been able to implement its resolution, on Palestine Statehood since 1948. UNSC has been blocked by US veto, and General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding! Insecurity and bloodshed in the Middle East continue.

UNSC was paralyzed during 2-year genocide in Gaza by Israel, was not even able to force a ceasefire, since US vetoed the resolutions in this regard.

US was humiliated by Israeli Ambassador, who put the Charter of United Nation in shredder machine, in the General Assembly.

ICJ and ICC ruling on Genocide in Gaza has not been implemented, as the results of defiance by most of western countries.

At the General Assembly, this week, US President officially declared the intention of his country for total annihilation of a UN member state, Iran, which is flagrant violation of UN Charter, specifically article 2. EU and other western countries kept silence.

Exceptional developments such as emergence of new multilateral institutions, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS shall have serious impact on the process of such transition, with colorful contributions of new eastern emerging powers.

The transition from Western hegemony to multipolarity will have little historical meaning if it merely replaces one form of external domination with another. Its deeper promise lies in creating an international system in which East and West can participate as historically distinct, but coexisting in equal footing with mutual respect.

UN and other international organizations, institutes of Post World War -II so call “World Order”, have continuously instrumentally used mostly by western counties, therefore lack utility and stalemate. There is an immediate need for a fundamental reform, and establishment of a new Multipolar order is a must.

Memories of centuries of peaceful coexistence of followers of three Devine religions, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam shall be revitalized in the Middle East.

Scholars enlighten the public to stand vis-à-vis the status quo and make a new world order based on justice and equality in order to create sustainable Peace and Prosperity in the Middle East and World at large.

Thank you for your kind attention.

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Diplomacy

The European Union’s peace project has collapsed, MEP von der Schulenburg says

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Editor’s note: Speaking at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26, Michael von der Schulenburg, Member of the European Parliament and former Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations, offered striking assessments of the European Union’s current trajectory. Schulenburg stated that the Union, established after World War II to build peace, has now abandoned this mission and surrendered entirely to a war-driven rhetoric. He pointed out that Europe, while grappling with structural challenges such as scarce resources, high energy costs, deindustrialization, and a demographic crisis, has been left confronting a ring of active conflicts along its borders. Emphasizing that Brussels has lost its capacity for diplomacy and mediation, the senior diplomat stated that the 27 member states lack the flexibility and collective will to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.


I’m not an academic, as you said. I’m coming from the real world of wars and peace, and I spent all my life outside Europe, actually, but the last two years I spent in the European Union, and I’m quite shocked what I see there. The European Union, as you know, was founded after the Second World War as a peace project.

A peace project, not to repeat the Second World War, bring countries together in Europe, but also reflect to the outside world that there is a sort of peaceful integration where you don’t have to have war. That has completely changed. When I listen today in the Parliament or on the line, actually, war is the main theme of the debate now in the European Union.

I would now characterize the European Union as an organization that is in complete denial of reality, of complete denial of reality, and therefore is completely unable to do any policy. And when the question here in the seminar is whether there is a contribution to the new world order, it will surely not come from the European Union.

Let me just make some comparison, which is closer to my job. When you compare the European Union to the United States, China and Russia, then the European Union is surrounded by most of the wars in the world, active wars. No other of these countries have so many wars around them. And even we have the problem that the United States starts wars like the Iran war and others, and they withdraw over the Atlantic.

But the consequences of the wars will stay next to the European Union. I think about Iran, I think about the many wars Israel does, from Syria to Lebanon to West Bank, Gaza. But I think also about the war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And then behind them, there’s all these conflicts in Africa, Mali and so on, and of course, Sudan. And the worst, of course, for us is the Ukraine war, because it’s on our own continent.

When you compare the European Union to the other three powers, you also realize that we are probably the place which have the least natural resources. We have a huge demographic problem. We have a demographic transition in our country, which we like not to speak about, but it will have an enormous influence. We have the most expensive energy. We have lost our comparative advantage. We have deindustrialization. And of course, we now lose what actually made Europe so special in the world, our social system.

You would assume that the European Union, and with this one, I don’t mean only the institution, but also the member states who have created what they call a common foreign and security policy would have be very strong because they would have to react to what happens around them.

Oh, forgot the United States, of course gripping now Greenland because I think that the agreement they just signed is the first step of taking over full control of Greenland. I mean we should not have any. And that’s a European territory. I mean what does the European Union does they have no foreign policy, they have no security policy, at least not that I can detect. They have a lot of political statements. They’re usually full of rearm Europe that we have to finally to become a military power. And they are full of moral.

And you know, in the UN we say always who speaks about war, moral wants war and those who speak about interest look for a solution. There’s nothing speaking about interest in the I can detect in the European Union. So it’s very, very worried. You know, this whole moral. Of course somebody who always thinks that I’m the moral superior is always very close to hypocrisy. And it’s actually sometimes really painful to listen to all these arguments.

But in a sense we have no policy to something which is actually for the European Union, for its future life threatening all these conflicts around them. You cannot speak to anybody. We don’t see anywhere we sit on the table of negotiations. Nowhere we have a proposal, nowhere we try to interfere on saying maybe we can mediate or anything.

There’s nothing of the sort anymore. And despite the fact that the foreign service alone of the European Union not to speak about the member states cost $1 billion a year, $1 billion. I don’t know what they do. I’ve met them in the field. I have no clue what European diplomats do. Anyway,

the most important thing is of course Ukraine. I mean it’s in our continent. If you are in such an insecure situation as we are, I mean the first thing one should come to mind that we need peace on the European continent. Then maybe we can also deal with the others.

Having peace in the European continent means that we have to talk to Russia, we have to negotiate, we have somehow to find a solution to the conflict. But we can’t. We are so blocked in ourselves that we were unable, we would be unable to have a negotiating position with Russia because the 27 countries cannot agree on a changed policy.

They cannot agree on what person should do in negotiations and they would never agree to give this person a certain flexibility people need when they do peace negotiations. And even if you think the E3 take the lead, the interest of the E3 is so completely different that it will not that is even more dangerous because the British would hate anything which is peace with the east because they look to the Atlantic and they see this since 1850, I think, as a great danger.

Germany would be the greatest profiteer from these things, but behaves, of course, irrational, most irrational. And the British would. The French would probably also not like it because the link to Russia and things like this would be of enormous economic and political benefit for you. So we don’t have anything.

What I want to say conclude with this whole thing is that the European Union will be a factor of instability in the world for a long time to come. I think as we go along, it will have also instability within its own borders. It is very sad to say. So the peace project of the European Union has been lost. And this loss of peace, we will all have problems that will make future generations suffer. Thank you very much.

East-West Forum in Istanbul to debate multipolarity and global order

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While the West breeds crises, Eurasia weaves peace and development, says Prof. Zhang Weiwei

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Editor’s note: Prof. Zhang Weiwei, Director of the China Institute at Fudan University and former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, evaluated the imperatives of a multipolar world and China’s global role as a “civilization-state” at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 25-26. Highlighting China’s distinct framework that integrates ancient history with modern capacity, Prof. Zhang underscored the tangible benefits that meritocracy, public order, and a peace-oriented approach deliver to global stability. In contrast to the Western posture that legitimizes military interventions and polarizes the world, he stated that frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and ASEAN transform Eurasia into an arena of peace and development. Pointing out that Chinese philosophy sets the threshold for resorting to war at the highest level and centers on forging consensus out of conflict, Zhang noted that maximum restraint is exercised even in border disputes.


Well, I will try to present my view on this whole topic of the world in transition and China as a civilizational state as mentioned in the outline of the program for the conference.

As we all know, I think the world is already multipolar. If you look at the size of the GDP of four BRIC members, it’s already larger than G7; yet the multipolar world order is not yet born.

So that’s something we try to produce and shape, including our foreign East-West Forum here.

Well, here comes to the role of China. China is indeed a unique country and can make important contribution, perhaps already made very important contribution to a new global order, more fair and more just order.

How to define a civilizational state? It is an amalgam of the world’s longest continuous civilization with a super large modern state. I try to summarize this into four supers: Super large population, super large territory, super long history and super rich cultures. All these four supers, each of which is a blend of old and new, Asian and modern.

For instance, if you talk about the large population; yes, China has always been a populous country since ancient times, yet this population is very well educated.

Every year we produce more scientists and engineers than the Western countries combined. Same with this vast territory: It’s our inheritance from history, yet it’s also very modernized, connected with first-rate infrastructure, the best railway system, best highway system and best digital infrastructure. 5G into every village, no exception. Super long history, it’s also a combination of old and new.

If you look at China’s political system, if the Western system is about election, the Chinese system is about selection plus election: selection from the Chinese tradition and election we adapt from the Western tradition.

Same with super rich culture. If we talk about political culture, the most important priority in China is people’s livelihood. First, it’s very much Confucianism: Whatever you do, the state has to deliver to improve people’s livelihood, both in material terms and non-material terms.

An inaccurate analogy—very inaccurate, just for reference—would be something like dozens of Islamic nations or countries today have amalgamated into one nation with a centralized government, with a very modern economy and speaking the same language. Yes, it’s also a highly developed economy, but it’s one nation. Or another inaccurate analogy, which is not politically correct: Like the Roman Empire has continued to this day with all these different countries uniting into one and speaking Latin.

Yet in the case of China, with a very strong philosophical tradition, we treasure peace, peace above all. Most important thing; highly modern, but also from Asian tradition. This will be a kind of nation-state, a civilizational state, as I try to explain to you.

And now we look at the international order; let’s say we try to build a kind of new order much better than the one we have, from unipolarity to multipolarity. First, let’s look at the ideas or philosophies: In what way does China differ from the United States? Vastly different. For instance, if you look at the Chinese political philosophy, it’s never about “divide and rule”, it’s always about “unite and prosper”. Within China we practice this way, outside China in the world we do the same.

“The Chinese case is friend or potential friend”

And in terms of strategic policies for the United States or the Western philosophy in general, it’s “friend or foe”. You’re either a friend or enemy. But the Chinese case is “friend or potential friend”. In other words, you have a much longer view, longer vision as a civilizational state.

And then it’s very different from the trigger-happy United States. If you look at China’s history, China has the highest threshold for the use of force among the major powers. Of course, China has very clear red lines; this is very important. But also this is strongly influenced by Sun Tzu’s famous book The Art of War: The idea is you try to subdue your opponents or enemy without actual fighting.

So you have this philosophy, and then you have this philosophy of friend and potential friend; you can have already avoided so many wars, you can prevent a lot of wars from happening.

This is the way China handles this philosophical part. Of course, the most important thing is humanity: Humanity has won, rather than “on the table or on the menu”. This philosophy China rejects categorically; it’s very much against Chinese conscience.

Now when we talk about a shared future for mankind or one humanity, some people say it’s idealistic: How do you put this into practice, how to make this into something tangible? I was asked by an American scholar in Xiangshan Forum about this question: Why did Chinese leader Xi Jinping present this whole Global Governance Initiative at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization rather than the United Nations, a more serious forum?

I said it’s very, very simple to understand: Because the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the embodiment of these four initiatives Xi Jinping has raised—on development, on security, on civilization, on governance. Exactly four pillars of Shanghai Cooperation; that’s my summary.

Now the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has become the world’s largest regional cooperation organization in terms of population, in terms of landmass and in terms of the results. It’s already larger in GDP than the G7.

Same with ASEAN; if you look at China’s partnership with ASEAN, it’s based on the same four pillars. As a result, China now contributes every year 30% to world economic growth; ASEAN produces roughly 7 to 8%.

With this kind of China-ASEAN cooperation, we contribute to close to 40% of global economic growth. Then you look at this whole Eurasian landmass, from Russia to Central Asia, to China, to Southeast Asia: This huge landmass has been a land of peace and development for the past five decades. It’s so important.

In many ways I say, if China had adopted the Western so-called liberal democracy system, maybe China had already produced a Donald Trump and the Third World War had already occurred. With the Chinese political system, as Professor Jeffrey Sachs said, you have the only adult in the room who can make rational decisions about the world, about China, about global affairs.

And finally, just to make a small comment on this practice: If you look at these regional organizations and what they have achieved as a result, both Central Asia and Southeast Asia were described as a “geopolitical curse” for many decades for understandable reasons—complicated geography, complicated religious traditions, complicated different political systems.

Yet today we can see with very high pride that they are geopolitical bonuses. Central Asia used to be landlocked countries; now they are land-linked. With this kind of positive note, China as a civilizational state has produced both ideas and practices for a possibly better world to come.

If you look at the opinion surveys done by reputable opinion survey agencies, what value Chinese treasure most is public order. That’s a vast country the size of 100 European countries put together; and so China hates the word “anarchic”.

So when we talk about the multipolar world order, if you look at the official language, it’s called a more just, orderly public order.

With China, ASEAN, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it’s already possible to foresee—from a Chinese perspective—a future more benign, more just, and fairer international order to come.

I do want to discuss a bit about this China-Philippines case: If China were behaving like the United States, with China’s military power today we could dismantle the Philippine military force within 24 hours. But we did not do that; in whatever problems, we only use, at maximum, water cannons.

Even in our border clash with India, it’s not at all what other major powers would do; it was only fist fighting between soldiers, and then issues are being resolved gradually. At this moment the China-India leaders met each other and relations became more normalized. I hope the world will do better.

“In the Western so-called universal values, they never mention peace”

And now I want to make one or two points here. One is concerning liberal values.

If you look at Xi Jinping’s Global Governance Initiative, he mentioned what is called the common values—six of them: Peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom. What’s most important is that peace is top on the list.

Because when you mention Western so-called universal values, they talk about human rights and democracy, but they never mention peace. In other words, the West reserves the right to use military force on Global South countries.

This is totally wrong; we don’t accept this. Peace is at the top of the list of these common values, and I think it is appreciated by most countries and most peoples in the world. Peace is number one.

And second, each civilization has its own values. But now we have the United Nations Charter, which is the broadest common denominator we can share.

When China says we should reform this current international order, we mean we should return to the United Nations Charter, which is the post-World War II arrangement that most countries accept.

With this “rules-based order”, it’s not the United Nations Charter; it’s the so-called liberal values dictated by the United States and the European countries—lieutenants of the United States—imposed on others.

Look at the Arab Spring: Millions died, hundreds of millions lost their homes and became homeless, and yet they don’t feel guilty. “We can do whatever we want because of this liberal order we promote.” We reject that categorically.

I was with Russian friends talking about the origin of the Ukrainian crisis; of course we think there is a problem with NATO’s eastward expansion. Five rounds of expansion.

I said: If you had stopped after four rounds, this crisis could have been avoided. As far as China is concerned, I don’t know why Russia tolerated five rounds of expansion; China would not even allow a single expansion into Asia.

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