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DIPLOMACY

The NATO summit begins in Washington: Ukraine and Trump top agenda

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The leaders of 32 NATO member states gather in Washington today (Tuesday 9 July) for a three-day summit.

NATO’s alliance against the Soviet Union and communism was launched in Washington exactly 75 years ago, on 4 April 1949, with the agreement of 12 countries. A commemorative programme to mark the 75th anniversary is expected to take place on 9 July, the first day of the summit.

The war in Ukraine, a possible Donald Trump presidency and fissures within the alliance will dominate the summit agenda.

40 billion aid package for Kyiv

NATO leaders are expected to pledge €40 billion in one-year aid to Ukraine this week, as key alliance members face domestic political turmoil that limits their ability to commit longer-term resources to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit: “Of course in democracies we can never give guarantees. We do not live in that world. But we live in a world where good outcomes are maximised and bad outcomes are minimised,” he said.

Stoltenberg added that the €40 billion pledged for Ukraine next year is an improvement on the current situation, where individual contributions are not always transparent or calculated according to the same criteria.

However, the new plan is less ambitious than NATO’s original proposal for a $100 billion multi-year assistance package.

“You can argue about whether the glass is half full, but the glass is more than half full,” Stoltenberg told reporters.

Nato will not issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance, the outcome Zelensky’s government most wants. But a senior Biden administration official told the Financial Times that the allies would make “significant” statements of support for Ukraine, including “new steps” to strengthen its air defences.

US President Joe Biden will also host an event on Thursday with Zelensky and nearly two dozen allies who have signed bilateral security agreements with Kyiv.

US election tensions

In the US, the Alliance’s engine room, discussions on Trump’s approach to NATO and Biden’s candidacy are on the agenda ahead of the November elections.

Biden is hosting the summit amid growing calls for him to suspend his re-election campaign to allow another Democrat to take on Donald Trump in November.

Trump, who leads Biden in most national and swing state polls, has threatened to withdraw from NATO if elected to another four-year term. The former president has also repeatedly promised to end military support for Ukraine.

According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defence experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term, Trump is unlikely to leave NATO altogether.

According to an analysis published in Politico, in exchange for continued US participation, Trump will not only expect European countries to substantially increase their spending on NATO, but will also undertake what has been described as a “radical reorientation” of the organisation.

Call for members to increase defence spending

Another area of concern is the need to increase defence budgets across NATO to ensure that all countries meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target, while maintaining support for Kyiv.

This will be a key priority for Mark Rutte, who takes over from Stoltenberg on 1 October.

Alliance diplomats warn that this will be complicated by taxpayers’ resistance to increased defence budgets.

Managing internal tensions: Orban a cause for concern

Another challenge is managing divisions within the alliance, as illustrated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s controversial trip to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Orban, one of NATO’s most prominent sceptics of supporting Kyiv, vetoed Rutte’s appointment last month, exempting him from NATO activities in support of Ukraine.

A Biden administration official told the FT that the US was “concerned” about Orban’s trip, which “will not advance the cause of peace or support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”.

“Concerns always arise and we always prove that we are resilient,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO had always managed to resolve internal divisions since its creation in 1949.

Berlin and Washington’s objections to the joint statement

In the final negotiations of the summit declaration, the US and Germany led efforts to oppose the inclusion of a reference to Ukraine’s path to NATO membership being “irreversible”, as demanded by many other allies, especially in Eastern Europe.

US and German scepticism about Ukraine’s membership has not yet been overcome.

Officials say that Kyiv needs to undertake major structural reforms and that formal progress on membership is unlikely until the war is over.

A senior US State Department official told the FT: “Every time we have contact with the Ukrainians […] we have been clear about the limitations, the need for reform and the fact that part of their territory is occupied”.

Instead, NATO will offer Ukraine a package of support that includes control of much of the coordination of military aid to Kyiv, a role previously played by the US, and leadership of several national programmes to train Ukrainian troops in Poland.

The operation will not be officially labelled a “NATO mission” after Berlin, wary of anything implying that NATO is a direct participant in the conflict, refused to endorse such terminology as too militaristic.

Tougher language on China expected

Meanwhile, Nato allies are expected to agree on tougher language than before on China to condemn Beijing for its economic support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine.

China’s support includes increased supplies of technology such as microchips and chemicals intended for civilian use but used to make Russian weapons.

According to senior White House sources quoted by Hurriyet, the NATO summit will not only bring Ukraine closer to NATO and build a “bridge” to eventual membership, but will also send a message to China in the Pacific.

Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand will also attend the summit, which the senior official said would “send an important message to the world through our partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region”.

DIPLOMACY

World Anti-Doping Agency ‘disappointed’ at US investigation into Chinese doping case

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As geopolitical tensions between the United States and China spilled onto the Olympic stage, the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) said it had been “unfairly caught in the middle” of the conflict between the two countries.

China’s swimmers have been in the spotlight after a series of doping allegations, followed by controversial US claims that Wada covered them up.

Chinese swimmers travelling to Paris were subjected to twice as many doping tests as some other countries, fuelling accusations of a conspiracy to hinder their performance.

Wada said on Tuesday that it was “caught in the middle of geopolitical tensions between superpowers, but has no mandate to get involved”.

James Fitzgerald, Wada’s head of media relations, told the BBC: “Some people [in the US] are trying to score political points simply because the athletes in question are Chinese. As a result, it has created mistrust and division within the anti-doping system,” Fitzgerald told the BBC.

Last week, Wada said it was considering legal action against its US counterpart Usada over the “defamatory” allegations.

Usada had accused Wada and China’s anti-doping agency Chinada of being among the “dirty hands that covered up positive tests and silenced the voices of brave whistleblowers”.

Members of the US Congress have also accused Wada of failing to properly investigate doping allegations against Chinese swimmers, and last Tuesday even introduced a bill to authorise the White House to cut the agency’s funding.

“When congressmen and senators get involved in the largely technical world of anti-doping, it ceases to be a scientific and legal analysis and moves into the political realm,” Fitzgerald said.

Tainted food and supplements the real culprit

Wada’s announcement on Tuesday followed a New York Times report on a previously undisclosed case in which two Chinese swimmers, one of whom was on this year’s Olympic team, were being investigated for doping.

The two swimmers had tested positive for a banned steroid in 2022, but were allowed to compete. China’s anti-doping agency concluded that the athletes had unknowingly consumed steroids, possibly by eating contaminated hamburgers.

Usada accused Wada of “tilting the field in their favour by allowing China to compete under a different set of rules”. But Wada defended its decision.

Wada said the athletes’ supplements and hair tests had returned negative results and that both swimmers had given control samples that tested negative in the days before and after the positive test. He added that the two swimmers had been suspended for more than a year and that their cases had been closed.

“Judging by the number of cases, it is clear that there is a contamination problem in different countries around the world,” the agency said, adding that the two athletes’ cases were part of a “wider series of cases involving [Chinese] athletes from different sports”.

Wada said in June that athletes who eat meat sometimes test positive for drugs if they take clenbuterol, a banned substance used as a growth promoter for livestock.

The agency is investigating cases of contamination in China as well as Mexico, Guatemala and other countries, it said in response to questions from The New York Times.

The head of the agency, Olivier Niggli, said at the time that the US media “only asked about China when meat contamination is a problem in many countries” and referred to “attempts to politicise the fight against doping”.

US swimming champion Katie Ledecky also weighed in on the debate

All this follows a bigger controversy in April, when the New York Times reported that 23 Chinese swimmers had tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs months before the Tokyo 2021 Olympics.

But they were allowed to compete after Chinese authorities said the results were due to contamination. The 30-strong team won six medals in Tokyo, including three gold.

Eleven of those who tested positive were selected for the Chinese swimming team for the Paris Olympics.

But US swimmer and 11-time Olympic medallist Katie Ledecky said her confidence in anti-doping authorities was at an “all-time low” after the news of the 23 Chinese swimmers.

Independent investigation backs Wada

But Wada’s investigation found that the source of the heart drug trimetazidine (TMZ) was “unable to refute the possibility of contamination”.

The report said the contamination theory was supported by the “consistently low concentrations of TMZ as well as the absence of a doping pattern” among the athletes tested.

That is, test results over several days were not consistent, fluctuating between negative and positive.

An independent investigation found that Wada had not mishandled the case or favoured the Chinese swimmers.

Chinese swimmers tested more than usual

Scandals have piled pressure on anti-doping authorities, and the Chinese swim team was subjected to far more tests than usual when it arrived in Paris.

Since January, each of the 31 members of the team has been tested an average of 21 times by various anti-doping organisations, according to World Aquatics, which oversees swimming.

By contrast, Australia’s 41 swimmers have been tested an average of four times and the USA’s 46 swimmers an average of six times.

The testing inflation has led to a number of other allegations. The Global Times, which is close to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), accused Western powers of “abusing doping tests to disrupt the [Chinese] swimming team”.

Speaking to the Global Times, a professor of international politics in Shanghai accused the US of dominating anti-doping rules.

Shen Yi claimed that “cruel and unethical testing” had disrupted the Chinese team’s training and called it “a disgrace to the Olympics”.

Chinese record swimmer: Our performance is threatened

Chinese swimmer Qin Haiyang, who holds the world record in the men’s 200m breaststroke, said the constant testing “proves that the European and American teams feel threatened by the Chinese team’s performances in recent years”.

“Some tricks are aimed at disrupting our preparation rhythm and destroying our psychological defences. But we are not afraid,” he said.

Qin, who won gold medals in the 50m, 100m and 200m breaststroke at last year’s World Championships, finished seventh in the men’s 100m breaststroke final at the Paris Olympics.

The criticism was echoed by former Chinese diving champion Gao Min, who said the rigorous testing had “corrupted the Chinese swimming team” and described Qin’s performance as “the worst in any competition in the past two years”.

China’s current medal tally is one gold, two silvers and two bronzes.

China’s “butterfly queen” Zhang Yufei, who won silver in the 100 metres in Tokyo, was in tears over her bronze medal in Paris but said the doping tests had not had a major impact on her.

Although the tests were “a bit annoying”, Zhang Yufei said the real pressure was “much greater” than she had imagined.

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EU pushes for final peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia

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European Council President Charles Michel has stepped up efforts to broker a final ‘peace deal’ in the South Caucasus.

Two senior diplomats confirmed to POLITICO that the former Belgian prime minister held bilateral meetings with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in the UK earlier this month.

Michel also wrote to both sides, urging them to return to the table and “finalise the peace agreement” by making progress on outstanding issues such as border demarcation.

But Brussels is disappointed that the long-awaited ceasefire has failed to materialise after months of delays and diplomatic deadlock.

Despite talks with Michel, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have not been able to meet, with both sides blaming each other for the lack of a solution.

In the end, it is up to both sides to stop playing games and reach an agreement, because President Michel has done everything in the EU’s power to reach a peace deal,’ said a senior EU diplomat close to Michel.

Tensions have been rising again for some time. Last week, Azerbaijan’s defence ministry accused Armenia of ‘provocations’ along the two countries’ shared border and threatened to ‘take the necessary response measures in self-defence with all available means’.

Armenia, for its part, says the accusations are disinformation.

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Italy names ambassador to Syria

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Italy has appointed an ambassador to Syria after eight EU countries called for Europe to reconsider its policy towards the country. Rome is the first G7 country to re-establish diplomatic relations with Damascus.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced on Friday the appointment of Stefano Ravagnan, the foreign ministry’s special envoy for Syria, as resident ambassador in Damascus.

There are currently six EU embassies in Damascus: Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The other G7 countries, including the US, Japan, the UK, Canada, France and Germany, have not yet re-appointed ambassadors to Syria.

Seven EU countries call for change of policy ‘no peace with Assad’

However, according to a letter signed by seven European Union countries and obtained by Al-Majalla, the new peace initiative is based on the abandonment of the famous ‘three no’s’ and the red line of ‘no peace with the regime of Bashar al-Assad’.

The current EU strategy is based on the ‘three no’s’. These are: no normalisation with Damascus, no lifting of sanctions and no involvement in the reconstruction of Syria unless ‘significant progress’ is made in the political process as set out in UN Resolution 2254.

In two documents sent to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell by the foreign ministers of Italy, Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Croatia and Slovenia, the main objective of the new European diplomacy is defined as the creation of a ‘realistic, proactive and effective European policy on Syria’.

Brussels calls for ‘realistic and sustainable approach in Syria’

The ministers presented the ‘non-paper’ to Borrell and the Political and Security Committee for formal discussion, and it contains clear analysis and recommendations. In diplomacy, a non-paper is a written summary of an oral presentation to a foreign government or organisation.

The document states that the EU should adopt a “realistic and sustainable approach” in the light of developments on the ground and in the region.

The European countries conclude that while the introduction of broad humanitarian exemptions is extremely useful, international sanctions exert little pressure on decision-makers while negatively affecting the wider population.

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