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The NATO summit begins in Washington: Ukraine and Trump top agenda

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The leaders of 32 NATO member states gather in Washington today (Tuesday 9 July) for a three-day summit.

NATO’s alliance against the Soviet Union and communism was launched in Washington exactly 75 years ago, on 4 April 1949, with the agreement of 12 countries. A commemorative programme to mark the 75th anniversary is expected to take place on 9 July, the first day of the summit.

The war in Ukraine, a possible Donald Trump presidency and fissures within the alliance will dominate the summit agenda.

40 billion aid package for Kyiv

NATO leaders are expected to pledge €40 billion in one-year aid to Ukraine this week, as key alliance members face domestic political turmoil that limits their ability to commit longer-term resources to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit: “Of course in democracies we can never give guarantees. We do not live in that world. But we live in a world where good outcomes are maximised and bad outcomes are minimised,” he said.

Stoltenberg added that the €40 billion pledged for Ukraine next year is an improvement on the current situation, where individual contributions are not always transparent or calculated according to the same criteria.

However, the new plan is less ambitious than NATO’s original proposal for a $100 billion multi-year assistance package.

“You can argue about whether the glass is half full, but the glass is more than half full,” Stoltenberg told reporters.

Nato will not issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance, the outcome Zelensky’s government most wants. But a senior Biden administration official told the Financial Times that the allies would make “significant” statements of support for Ukraine, including “new steps” to strengthen its air defences.

US President Joe Biden will also host an event on Thursday with Zelensky and nearly two dozen allies who have signed bilateral security agreements with Kyiv.

US election tensions

In the US, the Alliance’s engine room, discussions on Trump’s approach to NATO and Biden’s candidacy are on the agenda ahead of the November elections.

Biden is hosting the summit amid growing calls for him to suspend his re-election campaign to allow another Democrat to take on Donald Trump in November.

Trump, who leads Biden in most national and swing state polls, has threatened to withdraw from NATO if elected to another four-year term. The former president has also repeatedly promised to end military support for Ukraine.

According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defence experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term, Trump is unlikely to leave NATO altogether.

According to an analysis published in Politico, in exchange for continued US participation, Trump will not only expect European countries to substantially increase their spending on NATO, but will also undertake what has been described as a “radical reorientation” of the organisation.

Call for members to increase defence spending

Another area of concern is the need to increase defence budgets across NATO to ensure that all countries meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target, while maintaining support for Kyiv.

This will be a key priority for Mark Rutte, who takes over from Stoltenberg on 1 October.

Alliance diplomats warn that this will be complicated by taxpayers’ resistance to increased defence budgets.

Managing internal tensions: Orban a cause for concern

Another challenge is managing divisions within the alliance, as illustrated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s controversial trip to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Orban, one of NATO’s most prominent sceptics of supporting Kyiv, vetoed Rutte’s appointment last month, exempting him from NATO activities in support of Ukraine.

A Biden administration official told the FT that the US was “concerned” about Orban’s trip, which “will not advance the cause of peace or support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”.

“Concerns always arise and we always prove that we are resilient,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO had always managed to resolve internal divisions since its creation in 1949.

Berlin and Washington’s objections to the joint statement

In the final negotiations of the summit declaration, the US and Germany led efforts to oppose the inclusion of a reference to Ukraine’s path to NATO membership being “irreversible”, as demanded by many other allies, especially in Eastern Europe.

US and German scepticism about Ukraine’s membership has not yet been overcome.

Officials say that Kyiv needs to undertake major structural reforms and that formal progress on membership is unlikely until the war is over.

A senior US State Department official told the FT: “Every time we have contact with the Ukrainians […] we have been clear about the limitations, the need for reform and the fact that part of their territory is occupied”.

Instead, NATO will offer Ukraine a package of support that includes control of much of the coordination of military aid to Kyiv, a role previously played by the US, and leadership of several national programmes to train Ukrainian troops in Poland.

The operation will not be officially labelled a “NATO mission” after Berlin, wary of anything implying that NATO is a direct participant in the conflict, refused to endorse such terminology as too militaristic.

Tougher language on China expected

Meanwhile, Nato allies are expected to agree on tougher language than before on China to condemn Beijing for its economic support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine.

China’s support includes increased supplies of technology such as microchips and chemicals intended for civilian use but used to make Russian weapons.

According to senior White House sources quoted by Hurriyet, the NATO summit will not only bring Ukraine closer to NATO and build a “bridge” to eventual membership, but will also send a message to China in the Pacific.

Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand will also attend the summit, which the senior official said would “send an important message to the world through our partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region”.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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