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Trade war with China threatens US LNG export ambitions

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Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Beijing poses a significant threat to billions of dollars worth of planned US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, many of which rely on China as a major buyer. Analysts, industry sources, and company filings suggest that this development could also undermine Trump’s ambitions to revitalize US business and significantly expand energy production.

“Tariffs could impact long-term contracts and purchase agreements… and make it more difficult for new US LNG projects to move towards Final Investment Decisions,” analysts at energy consultancy EBW Analytics noted in a report on Tuesday, referencing Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on US energy imports.

Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from China—part of his plan to improve the US trade balance—prompted Beijing to retaliate by imposing a 15% tariff on US LNG and coal, as well as a 10% tariff on US oil. The US is the world’s largest LNG exporter, and China has been a key buyer of the super-cooled gas, importing about 6% of total US LNG exports last year—or approximately 4.3 million metric tonnes—according to LSEG data.

According to Reuters calculations, Chinese state-owned companies have signed LNG supply agreements for more than 20 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) from both existing and future US export terminals. Venture Global LNG and Cheniere, the two largest US LNG exporters, have secured long-term contracts with Chinese companies for 14 million MTPA, based on public statements.

Venture Global declined to respond to requests for comment, while Cheniere and its rival Energy Transfer—which has a long-term sales and purchase agreement with China—were not immediately available for comment. Freeport LNG, the third-largest US LNG exporter, also declined to comment.

Currently, there are eight operating LNG export terminals in the US, three under construction, and approximately 20 more in various stages of development. Companies are advancing projects for new or expanded LNG export capacity after the Trump administration lifted a moratorium on new LNG export permits in January. This moratorium had been imposed by former President Joe Biden due to concerns about the environmental and economic impacts of such projects.

However, Charlie Riedl, Executive Director of the Center for LNG—a trade group representing many US LNG exporters and developers—warned that China’s decision to impose tariffs introduces uncertainty to the industry and weakens America’s competitive position in global energy markets.

“These tariffs on US LNG directly undermine the Trump administration’s efforts to expand American energy exports and strengthen our geopolitical influence,” Riedl said.

Huge contracts

LNG developers rely on long-term contracts or sale and purchase agreements to secure financing from banks for their projects. These agreements are critical for moving projects from the development stage to the final investment decision.

According to company filings, Venture Global—the most valuable LNG exporter in the US, with two facilities operating in Louisiana and three under development—has signed 9.5 MTPA supply agreements with Chinese companies to date. Cheniere Energy, the second-largest LNG company in the US and currently the largest exporter, has more than 4.5 MTPA of long-term contracts with China.

In its prospectus for its blockbuster initial public offering in January, Venture Global warned investors about the potential risks posed by a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. “These factors could adversely affect our ability to market the remaining production capacity of our projects, which could have a material adverse effect on the viability of our projects and our business,” the company stated at the time.

On Tuesday, Venture Global’s shares fell nearly 5% in afternoon trading, while Cheniere’s stock dropped by less than 1%.

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South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market

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Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.

The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.

European countries increase purchases from South Korea

Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.

Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.

South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.

“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.

Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage

Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.

According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.

Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.

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DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation

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Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.

DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.

According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.

Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.

The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.

Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.

Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.

DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.

Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.

Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.

Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.

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China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system

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China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”

The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.

The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.

According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.

In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?

The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.

According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.

The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.

According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”

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