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Trump administration weighs Cuba threat amid claims of Russian and Iranian drone support

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The US administration has begun efforts to build a public case and justification for a possible military strike against Cuba.

According to what Axios described as “classified intelligence” shared with the outlet, Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has recently discussed plans to use them against the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels, and potentially Key West, Florida, located 90 miles (144.8 km) north of Havana.

A senior US official said the intelligence, which could serve as a pretext for military action, reflected the extent to which the Trump administration views Cuba as a growing threat because of advances in drone warfare and the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana.

“When you think about these technologies being this close and the array of bad actors — from terrorist groups to drug cartels, from Iranians to Russians — it’s concerning. This is an expanding threat,” the official said.

US officials allege that Cuba has been purchasing attack drones with “various capabilities” from Russia and Iran since 2023 and has deployed them at strategic sites across the island.

A senior US official said Cuban authorities had requested additional drones and military equipment from Russia within the past month.

The official also cited intelligence that purportedly showed Cuban intelligence officials attempting to “learn how Iran has resisted the US.”

According to the US, both Russia and China operate high-tech espionage facilities in Cuba for collecting signals intelligence, or SIGINT.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a congressional hearing on Tuesday that Washington had long been concerned by “the existence of a foreign adversary operating such facilities so close to our shores.”

Responding to Miami Republican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, Hegseth also said Fidel Castro had been complicit in the order to shoot down aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization.

The Cuban Embassy initially did not respond to Axios’ request for comment, but later issued a written statement on X that did not deny possessing attack drones.

“Like every country, Cuba has the right to defend itself against foreign aggression. That is called legitimate self-defense, and this right is protected by international law and the UN Charter,” the statement said.

“Those in the US who seek the submission or even destruction of the Cuban nation through military aggression and war waste no time fabricating pretexts, producing and spreading lies, and portraying the sensible preparations required against a possible attack as though they were extraordinary developments.”

According to the report, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and explicitly warned officials there against engaging in “hostile actions.”

A CIA official told Axios that Ratcliffe also urged Cuban authorities to “eliminate their totalitarian regime” in order to end heavy US sanctions.

“Director Ratcliffe made clear that Cuba can no longer be used as a platform for our adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere,” the official said.

“The Western Hemisphere cannot be a playground for our enemies.”

On Wednesday, the US Department of Justice is expected to revive an indictment against Raul Castro over allegations that he ordered the 1996 downing of two aircraft belonging to the Miami-based humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. New sanctions targeting the island could also be announced this week.

US officials further allege that nearly 5,000 Cuban soldiers have fought for Russia in the Ukraine war and that some of them have relayed information on the effectiveness of drone warfare to military leaders on the island.

According to US officials’ estimates, Russia paid the Cuban government approximately $25,000 for every soldier sent to Ukraine.

“They are part of Putin’s meat grinder. They are learning Iran’s tactics. This is something we have to plan for,” the senior official said.

At the same time, according to the report, US officials do not believe Cuba poses an imminent threat or is actively planning attacks against US interests.

However, US intelligence assessments suggest Cuban military officials are discussing drone warfare plans in preparation for possible conflict should relations with Washington continue to deteriorate.

Unlike Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Cuba does not possess the capability to shut down the Florida Straits.

US officials also do not believe Cuba represents a military threat on the scale of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“Nobody is worried about Cuban fighter jets. It’s not even clear whether they have a plane that can fly,” the official said.

“But it’s worth noting how close they are — 90 miles. That’s not something we’re comfortable with.”

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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Pentagon launches mass polygraph inquiry over munitions leaks

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Classified data leaked to the press regarding the depletion of US military ammunition stockpiles has triggered a comprehensive inspection within the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

According to a report by The New York Times citing officials familiar with the matter, investigators questioned approximately 50 personnel serving at the headquarters of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff by subjecting them to lie detector examinations.

The inquiries under the investigation were not limited to commissioned officers; civilian personnel at the headquarters were also subjected to the test.

Staff were asked whether they had leaked classified information to journalists and whether they had provided the press with details concerning dwindling ammunition stockpiles.

Sources speaking to the newspaper stated that this measure was aimed not only at identifying the source of the leak, but also served as an act of intimidation designed to deter other employees who might consider passing similar information to the media in the future.

The New York Times emphasised that such mass polygraph testing within the senior echelons of the US military has not been witnessed in modern military history and that the scale reached by the investigation is unprecedented.

Initial reports indicating that the American military was experiencing an ammunition deficit began surfacing in the media in August. A report by CNN television, citing sources familiar with internal Pentagon assessments, stated that throughout the five-month war conducted with Iran, the US had consumed nearly 80% of its THAAD air defence system interceptor missiles and approximately half of its Patriot missiles.

In another report based on its own sources, the Reuters news agency reported that the US military had expended “almost all” of its stockpiles of long-range, precision-guided ATACMS missiles and next-generation Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM).

According to information reported by The Washington Post, US President Donald Trump demanded an explanation regarding the ammunition deficit from Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth.

Trump voiced the view that the secretary had misled him regarding the existing quantity of ammunition. NBC television noted that Trump experienced disappointment because the ammunition shortage emerged as an obstacle to plans for expanding the military operation in Iran.

Adopting a different posture in public despite these leaks, Trump repeatedly reiterated that the US possesses “far more ammunition than any other country in the world.”

The US president also threatened that “the individuals who leaked these treasonous disclosures to the press” would face prison sentences.

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