America
Trump caught between hawks, markets, and his base as Iran war drags past initial timeline
A complex power struggle is playing out inside the White House. As advisers clash over when and how to declare “victory” in a conflict that has spread across West Asia, their competing counsel is shaping the increasingly erratic public statements Donald Trump makes about the course of his Iran war.
Interviews conducted by Reuters with an adviser close to Trump and with sources familiar with the decision-making process offer a previously unpublished account of how the administration is navigating what has become the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Nearly two weeks after fighting began, the conflict has rattled global financial markets and disrupted international oil trade.
The stakes are extraordinarily high for a president who, upon returning to office last year, pledged to avoid “unnecessary military entanglements.”
While competition for Trump’s ear is a recurring feature of his presidency, what hangs in the balance this time is war and peace in one of the world’s most volatile and economically consequential regions.
The message shifts, the markets swing
Since launching the war on Feb. 28 with an expansive set of stated objectives, Trump has in recent days progressively retreated from those goals, recasting the conflict as “a limited operation that is largely complete.”
That message, however, has yet to hold. Energy markets continue to swing with each Trump statement.
At a rally in Kentucky on Wednesday, Trump declared, “We won the war,” before immediately pivoting. “But we don’t want to leave too early, do we?” he added. “We need to finish the job.”
The economy sends alarm signals
Economic advisers — including officials from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council — have warned Trump that the oil shock and surging gasoline prices could rapidly erode domestic public support for the war, according to sources. Political advisers are pressing similar arguments.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and her deputy James Blair are urging Trump to define victory “narrowly” and to emphasize that the operation appears limited and nearly concluded, with particular attention to the political fallout of high fuel prices.
The hawks hold the line
On a separate front, hawkish voices are pressing Trump to maintain military pressure on Iran. That camp includes Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, along with commentator Mark Levin.
These figures argue that the US must prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and must respond forcefully to attacks against American troops and maritime shipping.
A third pressure track comes from Trump’s populist base. Strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing broadcaster Tucker Carlson have been conveying to Trump that the US must not be dragged into a new, protracted “Middle East war.”
An adviser close to Trump distilled the dynamic with striking clarity: “Trump is letting the hawks believe the campaign is ongoing, wants the markets to think the war could be ending soon, and is trying to show his own base that the escalation will remain contained.”
In response to requests for comment, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This report is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who have not even been in any meetings with President Trump. The president is a good listener and takes in the views of many people, but he is the one who makes the final call and sets the best message. The president’s entire team is focused on fully achieving the objectives of Operation Righteous Fury.”
Threading contradictory narratives
Trump offered scant public explanation when he took the country to war. The administration’s stated war aims have since shifted across a wide spectrum — from preventing an imminent Iranian attack, to crippling its nuclear programme, to effecting regime change.
Now seeking an exit from a conflict that lacks broad public support, Trump appears to be simultaneously sustaining contradictory narratives, according to some analysts — a balancing act made more treacherous by Iran’s continued resistance despite the devastating toll of US-Israeli airstrikes.
Political and economic advisers whose pre-war warnings about economic shock were largely dismissed have come to the fore this week. They appear to be playing a decisive role in Trump’s efforts to calm markets and limit the rise in oil and gas prices.
Trump’s characterization of the war as “a short-duration operation” and his insistence that the spike in gasoline prices is temporary are aimed at defusing anxiety over a prolonged conflict.
Some senior advisers have counseled Trump to work toward “a result he can present as a military victory,” according to sources — a scenario under which the war could be brought to a close even if much of Iran’s leadership survives and vestiges of its nuclear programme persist.
Limited gains on the ground, mounting costs at sea
A series of US and Israeli airstrikes has killed numerous senior Iranian officials. Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, its navy, and its infrastructure have sustained damage, and its capacity to support proxy forces has been weakened.
But those military gains have been substantially overshadowed by Iran’s escalating attacks on oil tankers and transit facilities in the Gulf, which have driven crude prices higher.
Trump has stated that he alone will decide when the operation ends. He and his advisers privately acknowledge that it has extended well beyond the four-to-six-week timeframe initially announced. The shifting rationales for why the war began, combined with the conflict’s spread across more than half a dozen countries, make it increasingly difficult to predict what comes next.
In the assessment of analysts, Iran’s government will claim victory by asserting its survival in the face of the US-Israeli assault — a narrative that gains force wherever Iran can demonstrate that it has inflicted damage on Israel, the US, and their allies.
The Strait of Hormuz: The decisive test
The conflict’s central hinge point is the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments pass through that narrow waterway. Flow has now nearly ground to a halt.
Iran has in recent days targeted tankers in Iraqi waters and vessels near the strait; Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly installed supreme leader, has pledged to keep the waterway closed.
Should Iran’s stranglehold on the strait push gasoline prices sharply higher in the US, the resulting pressure on Republicans — who are fighting to preserve their razor-thin congressional majorities ahead of November’s midterm elections — could intensify demands on Trump to bring the war to an end.
Trump has lately been less vocal about the prospect of toppling the government in Tehran. US intelligence assesses that Iran’s leadership faces no imminent risk of collapse.
The cost of the Venezuela illusion
Some of the confusion surrounding the war’s trajectory may trace back to the swift military success the US achieved in Venezuela.
According to a source familiar with the administration’s thinking, some advisers struggled to convince Trump that the Iran operation would bear no resemblance to the Venezuela raid of Jan. 3.
In that operation, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized and Trump secured significant leverage over the country’s vast oil reserves without requiring a sustained military campaign. Iran has proved a far more formidable adversary — one with more advanced weapons and deeply entrenched religious and security institutions.
Analysts note that even as Trump has repeatedly insisted since June that the US-Israeli bombardment “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear programme, Trump’s own aides are pushing back against the claim that Iran was weeks away from producing a nuclear weapon.
It is believed that a significant portion of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile was buried during the June strikes; that material could theoretically be recovered, re-enriched, and brought to weapons grade. Iran has consistently denied pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Should the war drag on, American casualties mount, and economic costs escalate, some analysts believe those developments could erode support within Trump’s political base.
Yet despite criticism from some supporters who oppose military interventions, members of the Make America Great Again movement have, by and large, continued to back Trump’s Iran policy. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell summed up the dynamic: “The MAGA base will give the president room to maneuver.”
America
Musk appointed co-director of Pentagon future warfare initiative
The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, has assumed the co-directorship of a Pentagon initiative focused on the future of warfare, known as “Project Meridian”.
Musk’s new role was announced by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth.
Musk, who has long expressed his conviction that wars will ultimately be fought with autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles, will advise the project as co-director alongside Palmer Luckey, founder of defence start-up Anduril, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich.
In a memorandum issued at the Pentagon, Hegseth stated that the group would “examine the battlefields of the future” and “determine which weapons and technologies warfighters must employ to achieve dominance in these environments.”
During his “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Hegseth said:
“The best predictors of future conflict do not reside exclusively within the Pentagon. Obvious biases and risks arise when we task ourselves with both framing the questions and answering them.”
Hegseth stated that this initiative would commence immediately and that, following his address, he would convene with Musk, Luckey, and Gingrich at a secure location.
Project Meridian will have 120 days to “ruthlessly map the trajectory of wars, domains, and technologies”, a process that will culminate in the public disclosure of its findings alongside a classified annex.
Hegseth outlined an expansive mandate extending “from beneath the surface of the Earth to beyond the Moon.”
Rather than formulating new military strategies or policies, the panel will seek to identify “the domains we must seize and the capabilities we must master”, focusing on the effort to “discover, develop, and field” the weapons and systems that next-generation American troops may require.
The group is expected to submit a report containing recommendations to him by the end of January.
In 2024, Musk remarked: “Future wars will be entirely about drones and hypersonic missiles.” This was merely one of several similar statements he has made in recent years.
For Musk, whose oversight role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) ended in turmoil and escalated into a dispute with President Donald Trump over Trump’s spending bill, this appointment marks his formal return to government in an official capacity.
Musk and Trump ultimately reconciled, and Musk attended a meeting on artificial intelligence safety at the White House this week alongside other technology leaders.
Meridian forms part of a broader push announced by Hegseth to restructure the military around autonomous warfare and rapidly advancing technologies.
Hegseth announced the establishment of the Autonomous Warfare Command (AUTOWARCOM), a new four-star combatant command endowed with what he termed “service-like authorities” to scale autonomous and robotic capabilities across the joint force.
The Department of War will also begin phasing in new occupational frameworks across all military branches to establish specialised career tracks for what Hegseth described as “the next generation of autonomous warfighters.”
“We should have conceived an Autonomous Warfare Command a decade ago,” Hegseth said, explaining that Meridian aims to gaze far enough ahead to enable the military to anticipate the next technological shift rather than lag behind.
America
Pentagon breach exposes personal records of three million people
A cyberattack targeting the US Department of War’s personnel database has resulted in the leak of personal information belonging to approximately 3 million people.
Speaking to ABC News, a Pentagon official stated that the system accessed by unauthorised individuals contained the records of 2,760,000 living persons and 294,000 deceased individuals.
The Military Times portal, which first broke the news, had reported the number of affected individuals as approximately 4 million based on two sources. The Pentagon official subsequently conveyed different figures to ABC News.
The leak encompasses Social Security numbers and duty information belonging to military personnel and civilian employees. According to an official notification examined by Military Times, the compromised records may also include names, dates of birth, contact information, sex, race, and military occupational specialties.
The unauthorised access to the information system of the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) lasted for approximately nine months, between October 2025 and 16 July 2026.
ABC News reported that the access in question was obtained by a small number of third-party users. The vulnerability was closed after it was identified.
The DMDC is considered one of the Pentagon’s primary personnel records centres. More than 60 million records belonging to active-duty personnel, reservists, civilian staff, contractors, retirees, veterans, and military family members are stored at the centre.
The Pentagon has not detected any evidence that the leaked data has been misused. Military Times reported that affected individuals were offered identity restoration and credit history monitoring services.
A similar data breach previously occurred on the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) recruitment website, FBIJobs.gov. According to information obtained by ABC News from internal communications and sources, the FBI is considering the possibility that data belonging to its entire staff may have been stolen.
The New York Times (NYT) examined a portion of the stolen FBI records. Home addresses, telephone numbers, official email addresses, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, hiring dates, and emergency contact details for relatives were identified within these documents.
The database also contained unit designations, duty roles, and information regarding the supervisors of personnel. Some records revealed assignments within counterintelligence and counternarcotics units, as well as departments examining threats originating from Russia, China, and Iran.
Ciaran Martin, the former head of the UK National Cyber Security Centre, noted that this type of breach could directly affect the FBI’s operational capabilities.
The hacker group known as ShinyHunters had announced that it had seized medical data and security clearance records alongside files belonging to tens of thousands of active and former FBI employees.
Experts evaluating the matter for the NYT warned that this information could be used to track agents, threaten their families, or compile dossiers by foreign intelligence services.
The ShinyHunters group initially threatened to release the data unless the bureau withdrew an advisory it had published concerning the group’s attack methods.
The group later asserted that it had never intended to leak the information and characterised its action as an advertising campaign.
In a report published in May, Reuters noted that the personal data of US military personnel had been used in surveillance and attack preparations.
According to the agency, Washington’s adversaries gained the ability to pinpoint areas where troops were concentrated by exploiting commercially available location data. US lawmakers at the time criticised the Pentagon for failing to adequately protect the personal data of military personnel.
America
Canada diversifies oil and gas exports away from US
US President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the Washington administration’s push to increase Venezuelan oil imports are prompting Canada to diversify its energy exports.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, recent developments are accelerating Canada’s development of new oil and natural gas projects.
Steps taken by the Ottawa administration, which aspires to become an energy superpower, are seen as potentially strengthening the country’s position in global markets.
In Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer, the energy sector accounts for approximately one-fifth of total exports.
Almost all of the country’s natural gas exports and approximately 90% of its oil exports go to the US.
The newspaper writes that the trade war with Washington and the atmosphere of confrontation entered into with Iran have heightened Canada’s desire to turn to alternative markets outside the US.
Officials plan to increase shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European and Asian markets.
Accelerating infrastructure investments in line with this target, Canada is also shortening approval processes. The government is prioritising the construction of an oil pipeline extending specifically to the west coast.
According to the newspaper’s estimate, if major pipeline projects are implemented, Canada’s daily oil transport capacity could rise to 6.8 million barrels by 2034.
Routes heading to the west coast will make up approximately 30% of this capacity.
The Canadian administration is simultaneously advancing LNG export projects. According to the report, these investments could allow approximately 55% of Canadian natural gas exports to be directed to markets outside the US by the early or mid-2030s.
While the government expands tax incentives for the oil and natural gas sector, the province of Alberta also plans to overhaul its royalty system.
However, the newspaper notes that implementing the new projects requires heavy investment, and the process depends on the final decisions taken by producers as well as the completion of regulatory approval processes.
The expansion of pipeline and LNG infrastructure could gradually reduce Canada’s dependence on the US market while raising its share in the global energy market.
The Canadian Prime Minister’s demand to reduce reliance on the US market had also come to the fore in July.
According to Carney’s statement, the province of Alberta submitted a plan for a pipeline spanning more than 1,000 kilometres to the west coast of British Columbia.
Targeted for completion by September 2027, the line will reach the Pacific coast by following an existing corridor through the mountainous terrain.
This shift in energy comes at a time of strained relations with the US. Donald Trump said that if Canada obtains associate member status in the European Union, he could halt trade with Europe in certain sectors and impose high tariffs.
As reported by the Associated Press, Trump characterised such a rapprochement as a “potentially hostile act”.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had proposed opening the path for Canada to become the EU’s first associate member. The terms of this associate membership status, which is not defined in EU treaties, are not yet clear and require the approval of member states to enter into force.
Canada, which does not seek full membership, aims for maximum rapprochement with the EU.
Following Trump’s return to the White House, relations between Washington and Ottawa deteriorated. The Trump administration, which repeatedly called on Canada to become the “51st state” of the US, introduced additional tariffs.
In July, the US began imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian-origin goods.
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