Europe
Trump’s deal for Ukraine minerals: How will the EU recover its debts?
As US President Donald Trump is expected to sign an agreement with Ukraine that would grant access to the country’s critical minerals, all eyes are on what Brussels will do.
Trump justifies Washington’s demand for access to Kiev’s raw materials or the revenue from their sale by pointing out that US support to Ukraine is largely paid in the form of grants and, unlike others, including the EU, it does not provide a large part of it as loans.
An analysis published in January by the Comité pour l’abolition des dettes illégitimes (Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt – CADTM), based in Liège, partially confirms this.
According to the analysis, Kiev’s debt to Brussels increased from $5 billion at the beginning of 2022 to $43 billion in November 2024. When loans from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are added, the total debt reaches almost $50 billion.
According to CADTM’s calculations, this figure corresponds to approximately 44% of the total external debt of the Ukrainian state, and it appears that more will be added in the foreseeable future.
In 2024, as part of the €50 billion aid package adopted by the G7, the EU will once again provide approximately 85% of its share (€33 billion) as repayable loans. Of this, €12.4 billion has already been paid, so more than €20 billion in debt will be added in the next two years.
As the CADTM analysis also shows, the EU is Ukraine’s largest creditor. 18% of Ukraine’s external debt comes from World Bank loans and 15% from International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans; Kiev has to pay 4% to Canada and 1% to Japan. Approximately 18% consists of debts to private creditors, mainly investment funds such as BlackRock.
CADTM emphasizes that Ukraine has to repay World Bank and IMF loans even during the war; the IMF is said to demand interest rates of up to 8%. Kiev was required to repay approximately $9 billion to the IMF between 2022 and 2024.
It is also known that Ukraine has to fulfill many conditions and implement “reform” measures in return for the granting of loans, which is explicitly requested not only by the World Bank and the IMF, but also by the EU. CADTM, referring to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, states that the number of binding conditions and measures to be fulfilled is 325.
With US access to revenues from the sale of Ukrainian raw materials now guaranteed, a source of funding from which Kiev could pay its debts to Brussels is no longer available.
Instead, the EU is likely to have its eye on the Ukrainian defense industry. This sector has grown rapidly since the start of the war. For example, the Stockholm-based research institute SIPRI points out in a recent analysis that the arms company Ukrainian Defense Industry (formerly UkrOboronProm) was able to increase its revenues by 69% to $2.2 billion in 2023 alone.
Smaller arms companies are also booming. For example, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) reports that the number of startups supplying the Ukrainian armed forces more than doubled in 2024 and currently stands at around 1,500. These companies produce a wide range of products, from drones controlled by fiber optic technology, which are therefore considered impossible to interfere with, to remote-controlled machine guns for unmanned ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicle defense drones.
SIPRI describes the sector as “dynamic, diverse, and innovative.” It is also emphasized that their products are regularly tested in battle.
Ukrainian officials and industry experts regularly point out that investments in Ukrainian defense companies, especially some new startups, could be very valuable for Western companies in the long term.
Some Western European companies, including the German defense giant Rheinmetall, have now established themselves in Ukraine. To date, the volume of investment is still low; reports indicate that it is at best between $20 and $40 million in total, but there are now signs of a noticeable increase.
Information has also been provided in Germany that the projects of companies considering investing in Ukraine will be guaranteed by the German government with the Ukrainian government. While Germany’s imports from and exports to Ukraine are increasing, almost half (46%) of the companies participating in the survey conducted by the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations and KPMG are considering investing in Ukraine in the next twelve months, despite the war.
In addition, the Ukrainian defense industry has also begun to hope for profitable arms exports. Ukrainian arms manufacturers recently called on the Kiev government to relax the export ban that is still in force due to the war.
In December, an industry representative explained that in some cases production capacities had been created that exceeded the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, and added, “We propose to export everything that our army does not need or cannot buy in a controlled manner to the countries in the Ramstein Group.”
In this context, there is talk of a potential export of defense equipment worth more than €10 billion. Moreover, production costs in Ukraine are much lower than in Western Europe.
As Ukraine’s arms production increases, taxes and duties pour money into the heavily indebted state treasury, which is said to make it easier to repay billions of dollars in loans from the EU.
The EU’s plan to continue providing arms aid to Ukraine also has a special place. An EU proposal in a brief document seen by Reuters in recent weeks suggests that each member state should meet a financial quota, depending on the size of its economy, to produce a package that includes 1.5 million artillery shells to be delivered this year.
Diplomats said they held initial talks on the plan, first reported by Politico, in Brussels and that EU foreign ministers could also discuss the plan.
The EU External Action Service proposal does not put an estimated value on the package, but diplomats stressed that the aim was to come up with a plan worth billions of euros.
The proposal states that the main objectives of the package will be to supply at least 1.5 million large-caliber artillery ammunition, as well as air defense systems, missiles for deep precision strikes and unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to the proposal, part of the financing could come from the revenue generated from Russian assets frozen in the EU.
Indeed, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an EU financial aid package of €3.5 billion during her visit to Kiev earlier this week to provide additional liquidity to Ukraine’s struggling budget and to facilitate the purchase of military equipment from domestic industry, among other things.
The €3.5 billion is an advance on a larger aid fund of €50 billion, which the European Union established at the beginning of 2024 and is called the “Ukraine Facility.”
I am able to provide information only up to June 2024, and therefore I cannot provide definitive information about events after that date.
Europe
High Court rejects Nord Stream’s €580 million insurance claim, citing war exclusion
The High Court of England and Wales has dismissed a €580 million insurance claim brought by Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, over the sabotage of the infrastructure in September 2022.
The ruling rejects the claim brought by Nord Stream AG, in which Russian state energy giant Gazprom holds a majority stake, against a consortium of insurers led by Lloyd’s Insurance Company and Arch Insurance.
According to an analysis by the Financial Times, the decision allows the underwriters to avoid paying out what would have been one of the largest compensation claims in the history of global infrastructure insurance.
In her judgment, High Court Judge Claire Moulder ruled that the destruction of the pipelines was directly linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Consequently, she determined that the damage fell under the war exclusion clauses stipulated in the insurance policies.
The court noted that establishing the precise identity of the actor behind the sabotage was not a decisive factor in resolving the insurance dispute.
“It is not necessary to determine who the most likely perpetrator of the sabotage was,” Justice Moulder emphasized in the ruling.
The written judgment examined four potential scenarios regarding who might have been behind the attack. The potential perpetrators identified included Russia, Ukraine, Ukrainian-linked non-state actors, or the US. The court concluded that under all of these scenarios, the war remained the dominant cause of the sabotage.
“Even if any of the potential perpetrators carried out the sabotage, the war must be considered a ‘significant cause’ of this action,” the document stated. The judge emphasized that she was not making a definitive finding regarding the culpability of any specific nation.
The ruling further noted that the fact that neither Moscow, Kyiv, nor Washington had claimed responsibility for the attack did not sever the causal link between the war and the strike.
The reasoned judgment also analyzed the potential motivations each actor might have had for carrying out the operation. If the sabotage was executed by Ukraine or Ukrainian-linked forces, the primary objective would likely have been to reduce Russia’s gas export revenues and weaken the Russian economy during the war.
In the event that Russia was behind the act, the ruling suggested Moscow’s motivation would have been to exert pressure on Germany and the European Union, punish them for shifting their policies following the military invasion, and influence their support for Kyiv.
Under the scenario involving potential US participation, the operation would likewise have been directly related to the Russia-Ukraine war.
The court noted that experts appointed by both parties agreed on the technical aspects of the attack. According to expert reports, the damage that disabled three of the pipeline’s four lines was carried out using hexogen-based shaped charges.
Nord Stream AG’s claim that the damage to the fourth line might have been caused by a dropped anchor was rejected by the court. Agreeing with the insurers’ defense, the court accepted that this damage was also largely the result of the same explosion.
Separately, the German Federal Prosecutor General’s Office issued its first arrest warrant in July as part of its investigation into the pipeline sabotage.
According to investigative authorities, the operation was coordinated by Sergey Kuznetsov, a 50-year-old Ukrainian citizen.
Six other Ukrainian citizens, including professional divers and explosives experts, are also alleged to have participated in the sabotage operation.
Europe
EU plans to delay ETIAS visa-free travel registry until 2027 amid airport congestion
The European Union is planning to delay the launch of the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS)—which will require citizens of visa-exempt countries to obtain electronic travel authorization before entering the Schengen area—until 2027.
According to a report by the Financial Times, which cited sources close to the matter, the decision has been driven by ongoing disruptions in the currently active biometric registration system and resulting congestion at airports.
EU-Lisa, the EU agency responsible for the technical infrastructure and installation of the system, determined that the previously set target of late 2026 is unrealistic under current conditions.
The agency’s management discussed the delay in mid-June and aims to finalize the new schedule in September after reassessing technical preparedness.
The final entry-into-force date will be determined by the European Commission following the completion of testing within EU-Lisa.
Technical disruptions persist in the current system
An unnamed source highlighted the pressure on the Entry/Exit System (EES) currently in use at Schengen borders, warning: “Let us not establish a new mechanism that will double the workload at border crossings before fully streamlining the EES system.”
The EES, an electronic registration system that replaced passport stamping at border crossings, was fully deployed across the Schengen area in April of this year.
The system, which takes photographs and records fingerprints of non-EU travelers upon their first entry, has caused long wait times and technical lockups at airports.
Industry representatives, including ACI Europe, Airlines for Europe (A4E), and IATA, have petitioned the European Commission to suspend biometric checks during peak hours, while airlines are advising passengers to arrive at airports at least three hours before their flights.
Infrastructure and staffing shortages complicate the process
In a letter sent to airline executives, Magnus Brunner, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs, indicated that the delays do not stem solely from software issues.
Brunner stated that a lack of border personnel and physical infrastructure to accommodate the new systems in many member states is also negatively impacting the process.
The ETIAS project, the foundations of which were laid in 2018, aims to run security screenings on visa-free travelers planning short-term tourist or business visits to the Schengen area.
Under the planned system, travelers will apply online prior to their trip by paying a fee of 20 euros, and their personal data will be subjected to automated checks against security databases.
Europe
BRIC pioneer Jim O’Neill warns UK must break dependence on US and diversify trade
Jim O’Neill, the economist who famously coined the term “BRIC” and now serves as an adviser to prime-minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham, has criticized the United Kingdom’s long-standing over-reliance on the United States.
O’Neill, who served as a Treasury minister in the Conservative government between 2015 and 2016, said London operates under “a philosophy of life that teaches you must always side with the US, no matter what.”
The former Goldman Sachs chief economist is “informally advising” Burnham, who is expected to become prime minister later this month. However, O’Neill told POLITICO that he has not been offered any formal role.
Twenty-five years ago, as a Goldman Sachs economist, O’Neill created the “BRIC” acronym to represent the fast-growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He argued that the UK must now diversify its trade network after dealing with an “unstable” Donald Trump administration for two years:
“The first 18 months of Trump’s second term are finally giving them a bit of a shake-up. They are thinking, ‘Actually, we can’t rely on these guys like we used to.’ But they assume this is just a temporary phase, that the US will soon return to a more sensible stance, and that everything will go back to normal. This is a kind of wake-up call.”
The former minister, who currently sits as an independent crossbench peer in the House of Lords, suggested that Britain must remain open to expanding trade with countries such as China. “We must be clear and consistent about the values we actually defend,” O’Neill added.
Speaking ahead of the launch of a new think tank, the BRICS+ Thinking platform, O’Neill is expected to be one of the key voices shaping the pursuit of economic growth as Burnham seeks to revitalize the Labour Party.
However, the economist expressed doubt over whether he would accept a formal role even if one were offered.
Addressing reports that he had been offered a position at Downing Street, O’Neill said: “Whoever first leaked that story, it is complete nonsense. I am not sure if I would accept an offer. It depends. I have a lot of things I would have to give up.”
O’Neill remains hopeful that Burnham can counter critics who complain that his political and economic philosophy of “Manchesterism” is insufficiently defined:
“I think Andy’s first few weeks are going to be very exciting. Let’s see. As I often tell his team, once you put your hand up, you have to want to do it.”
O’Neill added that Burnham possesses “very good intuition,” noting: “He knows the streets very well. People in Whitehall and Westminster often live in their own little bubbles. Andy can handle the streets, and that in itself is really important.”
As the founder of the new BRICS+ Thinking platform—which aims to bring together expertise in economics and trade—O’Neill called for greater cooperation between the UK and emerging economies. He asserted that the UK “failed to listen to these countries during the decade in which the nation decided to leave the European Union.”
O’Neill also stated that he would support rejoined EU membership under the right conditions:
“Yes, I would support [rejoining], but I think it is crucial that some leaders in this country finally wake up and take serious action regarding the deeper issues affecting so many people who want to blame something for not receiving a share of prosperity over the last 30 to 40 years.”
However, O’Neill emphasized that “the conditions must be right” for any rapprochement with the EU.
While the Starmer government has made significant efforts to strengthen ties with the EU, O’Neill described his own stance as that of a “moderate Remainer,” arguing:
“Economically, I thought leaving was a crazy decision, but I also believed that the shock of such a decision could both wake us up to important domestic issues and allow the UK to take a truly bold path… by adopting a realistic stance.”
-
Middle East1 week agoQatar and Saudi Arabia acquire hundreds of millions of dollars in Israeli defense technology, report says
-
Europe1 week agoBuckingham Palace updates King’s official role to focus on securing faith in multi-faith Britain
-
America2 weeks agoVenezuela prepares record $240 billion sovereign debt restructuring
-
Asia2 weeks agoAnthropic accuses China’s Alibaba of systematic data theft targeting Claude AI model
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoNATO draft declaration pledges €70 billion to Ukraine ahead of Ankara summit
-
Europe2 weeks agoFrance launches Defence Quantum Campus to accelerate military technology integration
-
Europe1 week agoBillionaire Peter Thiel deepens ties with German and Austrian right-wing political elite
-
Interview1 week ago“Capitalism does not require a free social order”
