America
Trump’s Fed pick Kevin Warsh signals aggressive rate cuts fueled by AI productivity boom
Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, has argued that American interest rates should be lower.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Warsh believes that the primary driver for this shift is the artificial intelligence (AI) boom—which he considers “the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lives, past, present, and future.” He contends that this surge provides the Fed with the leeway to lower rates without fueling inflation.
The Fed nominee believes he can give these productivity gains a chance to flourish, much like former Chair Alan Greenspan did in the 1990s.
“Greenspan, based on anecdotal and quite esoteric data, didn’t think we were in a position where we needed to raise rates,” Warsh said during a December interview with Sadi Khan, CEO of Aven Financial. “As a result, we had a stronger economy and more stable prices.”
Warsh’s perspective is shared by other Trump administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who likewise favors the rapid and sharp interest rate cuts the president desires.
“It is clear that we are in the early stages of a productivity boom, similar to the 1990s,” Bessent told CNBC earlier this month. He added that observers should read the biography of Greenspan by former Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward, which details how the former chair “properly jump-started the economy.”
Greenspan’s pivotal move regarding productivity dates back to September 1996. At that time, Greenspan entered a Fed board meeting and attempted to persuade colleagues to postpone the rate hike that many of them sought.
He informed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that productivity was increasing faster than official data suggested.
“Many people weren’t entirely convinced; Greenspan began to explain certain aspects of productivity growth in a way that people really struggled to understand,” Janet Yellen, then-president of the San Francisco Fed, told the FT.
Yellen added that Greenspan was “absolutely right.” Ultimately, nearly every member of the FOMC, including Yellen—who would later become Fed chair—supported Greenspan’s productivity forecast and kept borrowing costs steady, though they pledged to raise them if inflation emerged.
Three decades later, Warsh believes he can repeat the master’s move. Jerome Powell, whom Warsh is set to replace, has also hinted at believing in at least some of the AI hype.
“When you look back, there will be some disruptions that come in waves, but ultimately, technology increases productivity, and that is the basis for rising wages,” Powell stated in January.
On Wednesday evening, Fed Governor Lisa Cook echoed this sentiment, noting, “Growing evidence suggests that AI has the power to significantly increase productivity.”
Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official who attended FOMC meetings, agrees that there is a “compelling direction” suggesting AI will increase productivity and lower inflation over time.
However, Reinhart—now chief economist at BNY Investments—noted that while the technology “certainly bends the path upward for expected output,” it is currently “contributing very little to productivity.”
Many economists believe the AI boom is currently driving demand rather than expanding the US economy’s supply capacity. They point to the surge in capital investments and stock market gains, which benefit the wealthiest Americans and boost spending.
Warsh predicts that the AI boom will rapidly disrupt the business world, and that the best companies will be doing “unimaginable things” within a year.
As a researcher at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, Warsh has had a front-row seat to the evolution of the AI industry.
His mentor, Stanley Druckenmiller, said that Warsh’s time managing private equity investments—mostly involving tech companies—at the billionaire’s family office has placed him in an ideal position to evaluate the technology’s impact on the economy.
Speaking to the FT about Silicon Valley, Druckenmiller said:
“He has a great network there, and because he possesses not just high-level information but also the details of AI’s speed and disruptive impact, I think he has a better understanding than a normal macroeconomist.”
If the Senate confirms Warsh in a timely manner, the Fed chair nominee will take office in mid-May. He will immediately face pressure to implement significant rate cuts from the current 3.5-3.75% range ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Recent policy forecasts from Fed officials indicate they intend to cut US borrowing costs only once this year, keeping the benchmark rate above 3.25%—well above the 1% level desired by the president.
Those present during the September 1996 vote say Greenspan relied on data, not just anecdotes, to convince the committee.
If Warsh wants to convince today’s rate-setters of an AI-driven productivity boom, he will need to do the same.
“Greenspan’s intuition was supported by deep research, uncovering things other people couldn’t find,” said former Fed Vice Chair Don Kohn, who attended the meeting as FOMC secretary. “He is someone who places great importance on data. This wasn’t just a claim; wages were rising, profits were high, and inflation was low—there was a puzzle to be solved.”
Yellen noted, “Greenspan did a lot of research on his own. Using a vast amount of economic data, he truly tried to prove this thesis.”
America
US inflation climbs to three-year high as energy prices surge
US inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, the highest level since April 2023, driven by a surge in energy prices linked to the Iran war.
Inflation rose above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase was broadly in line with expectations amid concerns over how far higher energy costs would ripple through the economy.
The reading marked the highest level since April 2023 and exceeded April’s 3.8% rate.
On a monthly basis, inflation increased at a slower pace than in April, potentially signaling that the worst of the recent price pressures may have passed.
Another encouraging sign was a slight decline in gasoline prices.
Asked about the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said, “I love inflation,” and argued that oil prices had fallen because “we destroyed 22 ships last night.”
According to the report, much of the increase in inflation stemmed from a 3.9% rise in energy prices, which pushed the 12-month increase in that category to 23.5%.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components and is widely viewed by analysts as a better indicator of future inflation trends, offered some grounds for optimism.
Core prices rose 0.2% in May, down from a 0.4% increase in April and below analysts’ expectations for a 0.3% gain.
Core goods prices fell 0.1% on a monthly basis, suggesting underlying price pressures remained contained.
On an annual basis, CPI increased 2.9%, in line with economists’ expectations.
Ground beef, roast beef and steak prices declined last month, although the parasitic fly outbreak reported in the United States last week could complicate logistics for farmers and contribute to higher prices.
Food prices rose just 0.2%, while shelter costs — a key component for Federal Reserve policy decisions — increased 0.3%, half the pace recorded in April.
Shelter, which accounts for more than one-third of the CPI basket, rose 3.4% from a year earlier.
Government and industry officials stressed that the insect, whose name has attracted widespread attention, does not pose an immediate threat to food supplies.
Meanwhile, transportation services prices fell 0.6%, potentially indicating that higher energy costs have not yet spread broadly across other sectors.
Similarly, services excluding energy services — another measure closely watched for signs of oil-price pass-through effects — rose 0.3% after increasing 0.5% in April.
New vehicle prices fell 0.3%, while used car and truck prices edged up 0.1%.
However, airline fares, a clearer indicator of energy costs feeding through to consumer prices, rose 2.7%, while motor vehicle insurance prices fell 1.7%.
As for interest rates, few observers expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates when it delivers its first policy statement under new Chair Kevin Warsh next Wednesday.
Market expectations point to just one rate move this year: an increase in December.
America
US nuclear weapons spending jumps 22% to $69.2 billion, ICAN says
US spending on nuclear weapons rose by 22% in 2025 compared with the previous year, according to a report published by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
Washington spent $69.2 billion on its nuclear arsenal during the year, a figure that exceeded the combined nuclear weapons expenditures of all other nuclear-armed states.
The world’s nine nuclear powers — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea — increased total spending on their arsenals by 19%, reaching a record $119 billion.
China ranked second in spending with $13.5 billion. The United Kingdom spent $12.6 billion, overtaking Russia to become the third-largest spender. France’s nuclear weapons expenditure reached $7.7 billion.
According to data cited in the ICAN report, nuclear-armed states have spent a combined $471 billion on their arsenals over the past five years.
The report emphasized that the amount spent on nuclear weapons in a single day during 2025 would have been sufficient to provide food for 2 million people for a year, while total annual spending could fund the United Nations’ regular budget for 32 years.
Before those developments, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Andrey Belousov commented on the issue.
Belousov said Russia continues to insist on the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Europe and the dismantling of all infrastructure established in the region to support their deployment.
Under its nuclear-sharing programme, the United States has stationed nuclear weapons in NATO countries across Europe since the 1950s.
Today, US-made B61 nuclear bombs are stored at military bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye.
Although NATO does not possess its own nuclear weapons, operational control over those weapons remains with Washington.
Earlier, the Financial Times reported that the United States was considering expanding its nuclear presence in Europe beyond the countries currently participating in the nuclear-sharing programme.
According to the newspaper, Poland and the Baltic states had expressed interest in hosting US nuclear weapons.
Sources cited by the Financial Times linked those discussions to concerns among European allies that the United States could reduce its military presence in the region.
America
Trump-linked crypto ventures gained $2.3 billion as investors suffered losses
Cryptocurrency projects linked to US President Donald Trump and his family have generated roughly $2.3 billion in gains for the family since Trump’s return to the White House, while investors have collectively lost about the same amount, according to a Reuters investigation.
The review examined four major projects associated with Trump and his family: the TRUMP memecoin, World Liberty Financial, American Bitcoin and AI Financial Corp.
According to Reuters, the value of shares or assets tied to those projects has fallen by dozens of percentage points, despite the ventures following a similar operating model.
The investigation found that the Trump family provided branding, promotional support and political visibility to the projects.
Reuters reported that the family either contributed very limited capital to the ventures or, in some cases, made no investment at all.
Investors, meanwhile, committed substantial funds to the projects on the expectation that Trump’s political position and his support for the cryptocurrency industry would generate long-term returns, the report said.
However, Reuters found that while the value of the underlying assets declined sharply over time, the Trump family continued to generate income from capital supplied by investors.
Some individuals interviewed by Reuters argued that investors entered the projects voluntarily and should have been aware of the risks involved.
Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary during Trump’s first administration, said: “If people are buying something speculative, they should understand the risk. If they decided to hold on in the hope of further gains, that was their choice.”
As an example of how the model operated, Reuters cited the experience of investor Fatima Elrgadawi.
Elrgadawi invested $2,000 in the TRUMP memecoin, saying she trusted the “Trump brand.” By the end of May, however, the value of her investment had fallen to just $120.
Reflecting on the experience, Elrgadawi said she believed investors had been exposed to what is commonly known as a “pump and dump” scheme, in which prices are artificially inflated before large-scale selling triggers a sharp decline.
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