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Trump’s tariff plans put Chinese investment in Mexico on hold

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Fear and uncertainty are spreading rapidly among Chinese-owned businesses in Mexico following President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from the Latin American country.

In areas that once hosted Chinese delegations almost daily—such as the industrial parks in Monterrey, the northern manufacturing hub—new factories had begun sprouting up within months on land purchased by visitors. However, earlier this year, this trend started to slow.

This shift follows Trump’s election campaign promise to halt Chinese-backed factories in Mexico from sending duty-free cars to the U.S. by imposing a 100% tariff—a policy that has yet to be implemented.

“Most of them have switched to waiting and watching,” said an executive at a Chinese-funded factory in Monterrey, who requested anonymity. Speaking to the South China Morning Post, the executive added, “[Trump] talks a lot; it depends on how he does it.”

The wave of Chinese companies entering Mexico began during Trump’s trade war with China in his first term. High tariffs on Chinese goods benefitted Mexico, where products meeting certain rules of origin could enter the U.S. market tariff-free with much lower freight costs.

“If I were advising Chinese companies currently considering investing in Mexico, my advice—unlike what I did during the six years I was in China trying to bring investment to Mexico—would be to ‘stop and wait,’” said Jorge Guajardo, Mexico’s former ambassador to China and now a partner at DGA Group, a global business consulting firm.

“My thinking about Chinese companies in Mexico is that ‘Made by China’ is the new ‘Made in China,’” he added.

DIPLOMACY

Which European countries will comply with the ICC arrest warrant?

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has sparked widespread reactions across Europe. Countries including Ireland, Belgium, France, Slovenia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Lithuania, Estonia, and Liechtenstein have stated their readiness to comply with the ICC’s decision.

Following the ICC’s announcement on 21 November regarding arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Gaza, most European nations have declared unconditional compliance. However, some countries criticized the decision, taking an ambiguous stance.

Borrell calls for compliance with court order

The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, urged member states to adhere to the ICC ruling, emphasizing its judicial rather than political nature. Borrell stated:

“This is not a political decision; it is a judicial decision. It is the verdict of an international court with strong support from EU member states. Its rulings are legal and binding. There can be no picking and choosing.”

Borrell also highlighted the dire situation in Gaza, describing it as “hell on earth,” and condemned the proliferation of “manipulation and disinformation.”

Countries supporting the ICC decision

A majority of European countries expressed their intention to respect and implement the ICC arrest warrant:

Ireland: Prime Minister Simon Harris remarked, “Ireland respects the role of the ICC. Those in a position to assist the Court in its vital work should act urgently.”

Netherlands: Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp stated that Netanyahu would be arrested if he visited the Netherlands, underscoring the nation’s obligation under the Rome Statute.

Belgium: Deputy Prime Minister Petra De Sutter called for compliance with the ruling and economic sanctions against Israel, stating, “War crimes and crimes against humanity cannot go unpunished.”

Spain: Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz affirmed, “We are always on the side of justice and international law. Genocide against the Palestinian people cannot go unpunished.”

France: Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot declared that France would apply international law regarding the ICC’s decision. “France is committed to international justice and its independence,” he said.

Diverging opinions among European nations

Some countries expressed reservations about the ICC decision:

Germany: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany is analyzing the practical implications of the arrest warrants. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit noted that implementing such arrests might prove challenging.

Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán criticized the decision and extended an invitation to Netanyahu, guaranteeing immunity from the ICC’s jurisdiction during his visit.

Austria: Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg argued that the ICC’s decision undermines the Court’s credibility while emphasizing the need for consistent application of international law.

Czech Republic: Prime Minister Petr Fiala described the decision as “unfortunate” but reaffirmed the country’s commitment to legal obligations under the Rome Statute.

Obligations under the Rome Statute

Under Articles 86 and 87 of the Rome Statute, states party to the ICC are required to cooperate with the Court and execute arrest warrants. Article 89 specifically mandates that any ICC member state must arrest and surrender individuals subject to arrest warrants when they enter its territory.

Previous cases demonstrate the challenges of enforcing such decisions. For example, South Africa and Jordan failed to execute arrest warrants for former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, while Mongolia did not act on a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, these warrants restrict the freedom of movement for suspects, as seen with Putin’s avoidance of the BRICS summit in South Africa.

Netanyahu and Gallant will face similar restrictions, as they are now barred from traveling to 124 ICC member states, including all European Union members, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, and most nations in Central and South America and Africa.

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Chinese satellite company to challenge Musk’s Starlink in Brazil

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A Chinese state-backed company is set to launch a satellite internet service in Brazil, aiming to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink.

Spacesail, a developer of high-speed internet services via satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), made the announcement during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Brazil. The visit marked the signing of an expanded partnership with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

This development follows ongoing tensions between Musk, owner of SpaceX and its Starlink subsidiary, and Brazilian authorities over allegations of misinformation on his X social media network.

According to Chinese state media, Spacesail has partnered with Brazil’s state-owned Telebrás to deliver satellite communications and broadband internet to underserved areas.

A spokesperson for the Brazilian communications ministry stated that the companies would assess demand in regions lacking fiber-optic infrastructure, with plans to launch the service by 2026.

“Spacesail is committed to being Brazil’s long-term partner,” CEO Jie Zheng told reporters on Tuesday.

Musk-Lula tensions highlight Starlink’s market dominance

Brazil is actively encouraging competitors to Starlink, which controls nearly 50% of the satellite internet market in Latin America.

Earlier this year, Musk faced legal challenges in Brazil after refusing to comply with court orders to remove accounts allegedly promoting extremist content on X. This led to a temporary ban on the platform and fines for Starlink, further straining Musk’s relationship with Brazil’s left-wing government.

Tensions resurfaced recently when Brazil’s First Lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, addressed Musk during an event on social media regulation.

Spacesail’s announcement aligns with concerns over waning U.S. influence in South America, often regarded as Washington’s “backyard.”

During his diplomatic tour, Xi Jinping attended the opening of a Chinese-built mega-port in Peru before traveling to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. In Brasília, he and Lula upgraded their bilateral relationship to a “Sino-Brazilian community with a shared future”, emphasizing a fairer, more sustainable world.

The two leaders signed 37 agreements spanning agriculture, trade, infrastructure, technology, and industry. However, Brazil declined to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signaling confidence in securing Chinese investments without full membership.

Operating under the name Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, Spacesail plans to accelerate satellite deployment with a target of 15,000 LEO satellites by 2030. The company launched its first rounds of satellites in August and October this year, showcasing its rapid growth and potential to disrupt the market.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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