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Trump’s tariff threat sparks surge in Chinese exports

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China’s robust export sector is poised to hit a record high this year, driven by a surge in demand from American companies rushing to stockpile Chinese goods ahead of potential steep tariffs under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Wu Zhiqiang, CEO of Shenzhen Lingke Technology—a leading manufacturer of lighting products with extensive factory networks across Thailand and China’s Pearl River Delta—told Nikkei Asia that many U.S. importers aim to “build a buffer against future uncertainties.”

According to Wu, Chinese manufacturers partnered with Lingke have reported larger-than-usual orders from major U.S. retailers since Trump’s election victory. “It’s clear that American buyers are aiming to maximise their profit margins before the new tariffs take effect,” Wu explained.

The increased demand for Chinese exports, ranging from battery components to syringes, pushed U.S. imports from China up approximately 6% year-on-year during the peak period of June to October, ahead of the holiday season. A report by Chicago-based supply chain firm Project44 suggests that many shippers advanced their orders to sidestep additional costs following the new tariffs imposed by the Biden administration in September.

The report also predicts this front-loading trend will persist, as additional tariffs are expected once Trump assumes office in January.

During his campaign, Trump vowed to implement tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese goods. This week, Beijing announced retaliatory measures, including a 10% tariff on U.S. imports and a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, citing efforts to curb illegal drug trafficking via Mexico.

Last week, Trump appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a vocal advocate of protectionist trade policies, has criticized China’s exploitation of the open U.S. market.

Companies brace for fallout: Major corporations like Microsoft, HP, and Dell are racing to source electronic components before the tariffs take effect. The Port of Los Angeles reported handling over 900,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October—up 25% year-on-year. Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, attributed the cargo surge to shippers rushing to beat potential tariffs after Trump’s inauguration.

“We are seeing significant front-loading this year,” said Nick Marro, Chief Analyst for Global Trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Businesses must adapt to a landscape of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.”

China’s exports rose unexpectedly by 12.7% year-on-year in October, the fastest growth in 27 months, buoyed by technology-related products like semiconductors and home appliances. Exports to the U.S. grew 8.1% in October, accelerating from a 2.2% increase in September.

Larry Hu, Chief China Economist at Macquarie Group, predicts that China will reach a record-high $3.54 trillion in export value in 2024, surpassing the previous record set in 2022. The trade surplus is also forecast to reach an unprecedented $1 trillion.

However, experts caution that the benefits of advance ordering may be short-lived. “We expect the front-loading effect to boost exports in the first half of 2025, followed by a slowdown in the latter half,” economists at Barclays noted in a client advisory. Barclays estimates that a 30% tariff hike by the U.S. in the second half of 2025 will limit China’s economic growth to 4% for the year.

Macquarie’s Hu warned that a 60% tariff increase could lead to an 8% decline in China’s exports over the next 12 months, exacerbating business uncertainty and deterring new investments.

In response to these challenges, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen announced plans to bolster foreign trade through new tax incentives and logistics policies to help exporters maintain orders and secure global market share. Wang also emphasized China’s willingness to engage in “active talks” with the U.S. to stabilize bilateral trade relations.

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Chinese defense minister reportedly under investigation for corruption

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China has reportedly placed its defense minister under investigation for corruption, according to The Financial Times, which cites current and former U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

Admiral Dong Jun, who assumed office in December 2023 after his predecessor was dismissed for corruption, is being investigated as part of a broader anti-corruption probe into China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), U.S. officials said.

Dong is now the third consecutive defense minister to face an investigation for alleged corruption. He succeeded General Li Shangfu, who was removed from office after serving only seven months. Both Dong and Li were appointed by President Xi Jinping, whose administration has launched an ongoing crackdown on corruption within the military.

The Financial Times initially reported that U.S. officials believe Li is also under investigation for corruption. Li had replaced Wei Fenghe, who was similarly investigated for corruption after his retirement.

According to U.S. officials, Xi is intensifying investigations into the PLA, with Admiral Dong becoming the latest high-ranking target. The specific corruption allegations against Dong remain unclear.

The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on the matter.

This development comes shortly after Dong attended an Asian defense meeting in Laos, where he refused to meet U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. China’s defense ministry attributed the refusal to recent U.S. actions, specifically Washington’s approval of an arms package for Taiwan that included advanced surface-to-air missiles.

The U.S.-China military dispute comes on the heels of a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru. Both leaders reiterated the importance of maintaining direct communication between their militaries.

Tensions over military communications date back to August 2022, when China severed military dialogue with the U.S. after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan—the first such visit in 25 years. However, Xi later agreed to reopen communication channels during a summit with Biden in San Francisco, paving the way for a potential meeting between Dong and Austin.

The investigation into Dong signals Xi’s determination to broaden the anti-corruption campaign within the PLA. In addition to the dismissal of Dong’s two predecessors, Xi also sacked two senior officers from the PLA Rocket Force, which oversees China’s nuclear weapons programme.

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What does Russia want from Afghanistan?

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In recent days, the Taliban have hosted senior security officials and Russian and Chinese diplomats. In the latest case, the Secretary of the National Security Council of Russia, Sergei Shoigu traveled to Kabul and had separate meetings with senior security and political officials of the Taliban.

More details of these meetings have not been made public, but the Taliban have said that there were talks in economic, commercial and security areas. However, TASS, a Russian news agency, had reported that the Russian official discussed security threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking and how to reduce Western pressure against the Taliban. The possible suggestions of training Taliban fighters by Russian instructors and the Taliban’s support for Russia in the war in Ukraine are among the other demands of Russia during the visit of the country’s top security official.

But Harici does not independently confirm these two issues. It is said that these proposals were made in exchange for the removal of the name of the Taliban from the list of Russian terrorist groups.

However, state media under the control of the Taliban, quoting Shoigu as saying that in his meetings with Taliban officials, the name of the Taliban will soon be removed from the list of terrorist groups in this country. Also, the Taliban have claimed that Russia intends to return Afghanistan to its seat in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an observer member.

This Russian official had separate meetings with Abdul Ghani Baradar, the economic deputy of the Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Abdul Kabir, the political deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and reminded the Taliban officials that he was sent to Kabul by Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. He also emphasized that Moscow seeks to expand economic relations with the Taliban, and for this purpose, it plans to invest in Afghanistan’s infrastructure projects.

Russia invests on infrastructure of Afghanistan, and that Taliban claimed that have suppressed Daesh terrorist group

Shoigu added that Moscow will make this investment in Afghanistan’s power generation, railways, transportation, industry, agriculture and mining sectors. However, Taliban officials have claimed in separate meetings that Taliban have suppressed the Islamic State (IS), also known as the Daesh terrorist group, and provided the basis for investment and strengthening of business relations with the countries of the region.

Meanwhile, TASS reported that Shoigu told Abdul Kabir that Russia intends to expand its bilateral cooperation with Afghanistan in various fields. According to TASS, the Secretary of the National Security Council of Russia has discussed security, economic and commercial issues with senior Taliban officials.

The secretary of the Russian National Security Council said: “We intend to expand bilateral cooperation between Russia and Afghanistan (Taliban) in many fields. I declare my readiness to establish a constructive political dialogue between our countries in order to motivate the intra-Afghan settlement process.” He further went on saying that Russia will continue to support the integration of the Taliban rule in regional structures and assemblies.

It also reported during these talks, Shoigu discussed security challenges and threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking, and strengthening trade and economic cooperation with Taliban officials. TASS also reported that Russia is trying to play a role in strengthening economic cooperation and peace amid Western sanctions against the Taliban, so that the pressure of the West on this group will decrease.

Russian top official expressed concerned about drug trafficking  

Meanwhile, some experts have raised different speculations about the trip of the Russian officials in Kabul. According to them, in his separate meetings with the heads of the Taliban’s ministries of defense and interior, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council proposed the training of Taliban fighters by Russian instructors, and at the same time expressed concern about the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan.

Also, some others have written that Shoigu has expressed concern about drug trafficking in Afghanistan and at the same time seeking support for the Taliban in the war in Ukraine, and wants to remove the Taliban from the list of Russian terrorist groups in exchange for this support. This trip takes place while China’s special representative for Afghanistan is also in Kabul and busy holding separate meetings with senior Taliban officials.

Referring to the recent visit of China’s special representative for Afghanistan, Yu Xiaoyong, to Islamabad and Kabul, the mainstream media outlets come up with different news and the most important topic among them was that Beijing is trying to reduce tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan. Daily Times citing its sources reported that China has started its new diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan over the safe havens of militants opposed to the government of Pakistan in Taliban-dominated Afghanistan.

China, Russia and Iran expressed readiness to work for peace and stability of Afghanistan

According to the report, after traveling to Islamabad, the Chinese diplomat met with senior Taliban officials, including Abdul Kabir, the political deputy of the Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, acting minister of defense, acting minister of foreign affairs, and some other Taliban officials.

At the same time, the Iranian embassy in Kabul has announced that Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s special representative in Afghanistan, had a conversation with Yuxiao Yong, China’s special representative in Kabul. “The two sides emphasized the need to fight terrorism, strengthen the initiative of the regional contact group with the aim of establishing stability and (preventing divisive foreign interventions) in Afghanistan,” according to a statement by the Iranian Embassy in Kabul.

Meanwhile, US Chargé d’affaires for Afghanistan Karen Dicker in a virtual meeting with reporters said, “No solution for Afghanistan is possible without the participation of regional countries.” Hinting on Doha agreement between the Taliban and the United States, she said that one of the articles of this agreement is absence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and the non-use of this country’s soil against other countries.

Regional and international constructions on the situation of Afghanistan have increased in recent weeks.

The visit of senior Russian officials to Kabul has been evaluated in order to increase the country’s presence in Afghanistan. Russia is very worried about the threats from Afghanistan, and at the same time, it is trying to attract the Taliban to its axis. However, in the past three years, the Taliban have systematically exploited the presence of terrorist groups and their support, and have used it to establish relations with neighboring countries and the region.

It should be noted that regional and international consultations about Afghanistan have increased in recent weeks. Recently, the representatives of several western countries have discussed “ways to continue interaction with Afghanistan” in a meeting in Doha. In this meeting, Hekmat Khalil Karzai, political deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the previous government, was also present. He said that representatives from the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Finland were present in this meeting and the meeting was hosted by the British ambassador.

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Imran Khan’s supporters march on capital, clash with police

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Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan took to the streets near Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, clashing with security forces in the largest protest since the military-backed government assumed power earlier this year.

At least one policeman was killed, and dozens were injured, according to officials. Security forces mobilized to prevent thousands of protesters from entering the city, imposing a curfew on Sunday for the second time in recent months.

Authorities deployed approximately 1,200 shipping containers to block major roads and entry points to the capital. Schools were closed, and mobile internet services were suspended. Additionally, some intercity transit routes were shut down to disrupt the march of tens of thousands of Khan’s supporters.

The protests were ignited by Khan’s “final call” on Sunday, demanding his release from prison. He is currently held on charges of corruption, inciting violence, and other accusations.

The unrest coincided with an official visit by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, intensifying pressure on Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s government as the country grapples with heightened terrorist attacks, threatening critical foreign investments from China and other partners.

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party claimed that dozens of supporters were injured by live ammunition fired by police, while law enforcement officials denied the allegations, stating they only used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse the crowds.

Protesters from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, one of Khan’s strongholds, and other regions gathered on the outskirts of Islamabad on Monday to begin a sit-in demonstration near Parliament.

“We don’t want to take extreme steps, [but] don’t cross the red line so that we don’t have to take extreme measures,” warned Interior Minister Mohsen Naqvi, who oversees security in Islamabad.

Media reports suggested that the government had engaged in talks with PTI leaders, offering an alternative protest venue, but Khan’s party denied these claims, stating that over 4,000 supporters had been arrested.

Khan, 72, was removed from office through a no-confidence vote in 2022 and jailed last year. Despite facing over 100 criminal cases, some of which he has been acquitted, he remains a popular figure across Pakistan, known for leading mass protests even from prison.

Although Khan’s PTI party won the most seats in the February elections, the military-backed administration blocked its path to forming a government.

A government report published in October, made public this weekend, estimated that the shutdown would cost Pakistan $680 million per day, though critics argue this figure may be inflated.

Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis, forcing it to accept a $7 billion IMF bailout earlier this year.

Meanwhile, a surge in militant attacks and an ongoing independence insurgency in Baluchistan, a resource-rich province bordering Afghanistan, has raised alarms in Beijing. China has warned it might scale back its investment in Pakistan unless security improves. Several Chinese nationals working in the country have been killed in the recent violence.

Experts believe the political crisis is worsening Pakistan’s economic vulnerability, further destabilizing the nation during a precarious period.

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