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Trump’s tariff threat sparks surge in Chinese exports

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China’s robust export sector is poised to hit a record high this year, driven by a surge in demand from American companies rushing to stockpile Chinese goods ahead of potential steep tariffs under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Wu Zhiqiang, CEO of Shenzhen Lingke Technology—a leading manufacturer of lighting products with extensive factory networks across Thailand and China’s Pearl River Delta—told Nikkei Asia that many U.S. importers aim to “build a buffer against future uncertainties.”

According to Wu, Chinese manufacturers partnered with Lingke have reported larger-than-usual orders from major U.S. retailers since Trump’s election victory. “It’s clear that American buyers are aiming to maximise their profit margins before the new tariffs take effect,” Wu explained.

The increased demand for Chinese exports, ranging from battery components to syringes, pushed U.S. imports from China up approximately 6% year-on-year during the peak period of June to October, ahead of the holiday season. A report by Chicago-based supply chain firm Project44 suggests that many shippers advanced their orders to sidestep additional costs following the new tariffs imposed by the Biden administration in September.

The report also predicts this front-loading trend will persist, as additional tariffs are expected once Trump assumes office in January.

During his campaign, Trump vowed to implement tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese goods. This week, Beijing announced retaliatory measures, including a 10% tariff on U.S. imports and a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, citing efforts to curb illegal drug trafficking via Mexico.

Last week, Trump appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a vocal advocate of protectionist trade policies, has criticized China’s exploitation of the open U.S. market.

Companies brace for fallout: Major corporations like Microsoft, HP, and Dell are racing to source electronic components before the tariffs take effect. The Port of Los Angeles reported handling over 900,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October—up 25% year-on-year. Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, attributed the cargo surge to shippers rushing to beat potential tariffs after Trump’s inauguration.

“We are seeing significant front-loading this year,” said Nick Marro, Chief Analyst for Global Trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Businesses must adapt to a landscape of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.”

China’s exports rose unexpectedly by 12.7% year-on-year in October, the fastest growth in 27 months, buoyed by technology-related products like semiconductors and home appliances. Exports to the U.S. grew 8.1% in October, accelerating from a 2.2% increase in September.

Larry Hu, Chief China Economist at Macquarie Group, predicts that China will reach a record-high $3.54 trillion in export value in 2024, surpassing the previous record set in 2022. The trade surplus is also forecast to reach an unprecedented $1 trillion.

However, experts caution that the benefits of advance ordering may be short-lived. “We expect the front-loading effect to boost exports in the first half of 2025, followed by a slowdown in the latter half,” economists at Barclays noted in a client advisory. Barclays estimates that a 30% tariff hike by the U.S. in the second half of 2025 will limit China’s economic growth to 4% for the year.

Macquarie’s Hu warned that a 60% tariff increase could lead to an 8% decline in China’s exports over the next 12 months, exacerbating business uncertainty and deterring new investments.

In response to these challenges, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen announced plans to bolster foreign trade through new tax incentives and logistics policies to help exporters maintain orders and secure global market share. Wang also emphasized China’s willingness to engage in “active talks” with the U.S. to stabilize bilateral trade relations.

ASIA

South Korea extends arrest warrant for ousted President Yoon

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South Korean authorities have granted a request to extend an arrest warrant issued to detain suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning in connection with his surprise declaration of martial law last month.

The warrant, which expired at midnight (10:00 p.m. local time) on Monday, was reissued Tuesday afternoon (local time) by the Seoul Western District Court at the request of the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO).

The deadline for the warrant was not announced. These warrants are usually valid for seven days but can be extended for a longer period if the judge deems it necessary.

The CIO, which is working with the police and the defense ministry to investigate Yoon, also requested the police to execute Yoon’s detention warrant. The police have a larger force and more equipment than the anti-corruption agency to carry out Yoon’s arrest.

Yoon, who was stripped of his presidential powers last month after a brief martial law declaration shook the country, is wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including charges of leading an uprising—a crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

The approval of the arrest warrant, first issued on December 31, marks the first time such a step has been taken against a sitting president.

Investigators attempted to detain Yoon on Friday but were forced to withdraw after an hours-long standoff at the presidential compound.

On Monday, protesters both for and against Yoon gathered near the presidential compound, accompanied by a heavy police presence. Yoon’s supporters vowed to thwart any attempts to arrest him.

According to a video shared by CNN affiliate JTBC, barbed wire was erected on the walls around the compound, and entrances were blocked with vehicles.

Yoon resists the decision

According to the CIO, Yoon, a former prosecutor, has so far refused to respond to investigators’ calls for cooperation.

Once the warrant goes into effect, a 48-hour countdown will begin for investigators to hold and interrogate Yoon. The CIO will need to issue another search warrant during that time to keep Yoon in custody longer.

Yoon’s declaration of martial law in December was widely criticized by the public. After he refused to resign, lawmakers, including members of his own party, voted to impeach him.

However, the suspended president’s lawyers have insisted that the measures taken against him violate South Korean law, and Yoon continues to face investigations and an impeachment trial in one of the country’s highest courts.

Yoon’s defense team has filed an injunction against the arrest warrant with the Constitutional Court and a separate appeal against the decision with a lower court.

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ASIA

China tries to reassure markets as stocks and renminbi fall

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China’s regulators sought to calm markets on Monday as stocks and the renminbi experienced a shaky start to 2025, influenced by weak economic data and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index dropped by 0.2% on Monday, marking a 4.1% decline in the first three trading days of the year, making it Asia’s worst-performing major index so far in 2025. Small-cap stocks in the CSI 2000 index fell 6.6% since the year’s start. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped by 0.4% on Monday, with a year-to-date decline of 1.2%.

Amid these declines, Chinese stock market regulators convened meetings with international investors, and the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing the currency. This occurred alongside concerns about Trump’s plans to increase tariffs on Chinese exports.

“Right now, everyone is wondering what Trump 2.0 will bring,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. “It’s reasonable for investors to take some profit,” he added.

The renminbi fell to a 15-month low of Rmb7.33 against the dollar on Monday, despite the People’s Bank of China keeping the daily trading band for the onshore renminbi unchanged. Analysts linked the currency’s downward pressure to corresponding weaknesses in Chinese stocks. Kevin Liu, a strategist at CICC, attributed the pressure to weak manufacturing data, the dollar index reaching a two-year high, and the anticipated effects of Trump’s presidency.

In an effort to reassure investors, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges emphasized the resilience and solid fundamentals of China’s economy during a weekend meeting with foreign institutions. They welcomed feedback and suggestions to address concerns about Chinese stocks, as outlined in a statement on Sunday.

On Monday, the central bank maintained its daily midpoint fixing rate for the renminbi at Rmb7.19, allowing it to trade within a 2% range. The state-owned Financial News stressed the central bank’s readiness to prevent excessive exchange rate volatility, emphasizing its “sufficient tools” to maintain currency stability.

Investor sentiment remained weak as long-term government bonds continued to attract buyers. Concerns over domestic consumption led to speculation that the central bank might further ease monetary policy. The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds fell to 1.61% on Monday, nearing an all-time low.

Despite Beijing’s promises to boost domestic consumption following a prolonged property crisis, the year began on a subdued note. The Chinese People’s Congress is set to meet in March to outline its economic policy agenda for what analysts expect will be a challenging year.

Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at Bank of America, highlighted the need for policies aimed at stimulating consumption, supporting the private sector, and addressing youth unemployment. “In terms of the fundamental things to look for in 2025, we think investors need to see more on consumption,” Wu said.

Despite the rough start, analysts noted that Chinese stocks rebounded strongly in 2024, with the CSI 300 gaining 14.7% over the year. “We think the worst decline is over,” Wu concluded.

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ASIA

Vietnam GDP growth accelerates in 2024 driven by strong exports

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Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.09% in 2024, reaching $476.3 billion, up from a 5.05% increase in 2023, according to government data released on Monday. The growth was fueled by strong exports and robust foreign investment inflows.

GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 7.55%, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in over two years, the General Statistics Office (GSO) reported.

The Southeast Asian country, known as a regional manufacturing hub, capitalized on a recovery in global consumption despite enduring Asia’s strongest typhoon last year.

“This is a positive result amid challenges, including natural disasters, and lays a good foundation for growth in 2025,” Nguyen Thi Huong, head of the Statistics Office, stated during a press conference. The GSO report highlighted that exports in 2024 increased by 14.3% year-on-year, reaching $405.53 billion, driven by electronics, smartphones, clothing, and agricultural products.

Conversely, imports grew by 16.7% to $380.76 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $24.77 billion.

The strong economic rebound was also supported by government efforts to boost coal imports for power generation, preventing electricity shortages seen in prior years. Coal imports rose 24.8% year-on-year to 63.8 million tonnes, while electricity generation grew 9.6%, reaching 293.3 billion kilowatt-hours.

Foreign investment inflows into Vietnam increased 9.4%, totaling $25.35 billion in 2024. Industrial production output rose 8.4%, while average consumer prices increased by 3.63%.

Vietnam has set an ambitious GDP growth target of 6.5% to 7.0% for 2025, with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh expressing optimism for an 8.0% growth rate.

“Going forward, Vietnam will actively monitor monetary policies, stabilize exchange rates, and closely watch major trading partners to implement timely measures,” Huong added.

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