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Ukraine offers natural resources to win Trump’s support

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The Ukrainian government’s “victory plan” for the incoming Donald Trump administration seeks to influence the US president-elect by highlighting potential business deals, access to raw materials, and troop deployments.

According to The Financial Times (FT), Ukrainian and European officials report that Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the US, including senior Republicans, are consulting on how best to propose initiatives that encourage closer cooperation with Kyiv rather than cut essential aid to the country.

These proposals stem from concerns among Ukrainian and European officials that Trump may move quickly toward a peace deal with Russia, potentially jeopardizing Western support for Ukraine.

Two of the ideas reportedly presented to Trump are outlined in Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan.” They were later presented to the Ukrainian president during his meeting with Trump in New York in September.

One proposal suggests replacing some US troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces after the war ends. The other, initially conceived by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, proposes sharing Ukraine’s critical natural resources with Western partners, according to sources involved in drafting Zelensky’s plan.

A source familiar with the meeting said Trump expressed interest in these two points.

Ukrainian business leaders are also in talks with the government about granting Trump “investment screening” powers that would allow him to select who can do business in the country. An insider described this concept as “ABC—anybody but China,” a stance believed to resonate with Trump.

Certain Ukrainian industries, particularly those relying on Chinese technology and materials like telecommunications, could transition to US suppliers, potentially attracting Western investment. While still in its early stages, some business leaders close to the presidential administration believe this idea could appeal to Trump.

After Trump’s re-election last week, Zelensky reported a “great” first phone call. However, officials in Kyiv and its allies worry the US could reduce military support when Republicans take office in January.

Officials added that Ukraine and its allies fear Russian President Vladimir Putin, strengthened by Russia’s battlefield successes, may “drive a hard bargain” and pressure Washington into a peace deal favoring Moscow.

A person involved in drafting Kyiv’s proposal remarked, “The first to blink loses this game. Putin thinks he is on a winning track and can secure everything he wants.”

Meanwhile, European officials are concerned about being excluded from Trump-led negotiations and lacking influence over any potential solutions that could impact European security in the medium term.

Western allies have reacted somewhat indifferently to the “victory plan,” especially regarding the call for NATO membership for Kyiv and advanced weapons support.

An individual involved in the planning stated that Ukraine began drafting its proposals over the summer “to establish our narrative before Trump establishes his.”

Long frustrated by President Joe Biden’s reluctance to escalate military support, Kyiv hopes Trump will find the points specifically tailored for him compelling.

“The level of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration had reached a point where they felt it was time for change, and that this change [to Trump] could be beneficial,” the source said.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, described the offer to the incoming US president as “a strategic move to demonstrate that Ukraine is not a burden on the West.”

“Trump wants to be a winner, not a loser. To be a winner, he needs to show Putin his place,” Merezhko added.

Sources also indicate that Kyiv aims to “appease the Trump camp” by replacing Oksana Markarova, its ambassador to Washington. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson had called for Markarova’s dismissal after she organized an all-Democrat visit to a US munitions factory for Zelensky in September.

Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was reportedly offered the post but declined.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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