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DIPLOMACY

Ukraine, US, Israel in talks to send up to eight Patriot systems to Ukraine

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The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kiev with up to eight Patriot air defence systems to significantly improve its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the deal, which has yet to be finalised, would see the Patriot systems shipped from Israel to the US before being delivered to Ukraine.

The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relationship with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials from the three countries, according to five people familiar with the negotiations.

Israel announced in April that it would retire eight Patriot batteries with more than 30 years of service and replace them with more advanced systems.

However, the batteries used in the Gaza war have not yet been decommissioned amid fears that tensions with Hezbollah in the north could escalate into a full-scale war.

If such a transfer were to take place, it would represent a significant change in Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems supplied by both the United States and Germany.

Ukraine has frequently asked its Western allies to supply it with air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriots.

Last week, the US announced that it was halting deliveries of Patriot interceptors to other countries in order to prioritise deliveries to Ukraine.

Israel has been wary of taking sides in Ukraine because of Moscow’s influence in Syria.

But according to the FT, US officials have tried to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that Russia’s increasingly close ties with Iran, particularly in the area of military cooperation, are a more pressing concern.

However, the sources said that while the transfer of all eight systems was being discussed, not all of them might be sent to Ukraine. Three people familiar with the discussions said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had held talks on the issue with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, in recent weeks.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has also met at least twice with the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the three sources said.

Kuleba did not confirm the talks, but told the FT: “Ukraine continues to work with various countries around the world to acquire additional Patriot systems. We once again call on all countries that have such systems to provide them to Ukraine,” he added.

In addition to the US-Ukraine talks, a person familiar with the diplomatic situation said there were also direct talks between Tel Aviv and Kiev on the transfer of Patriots.

Israel’s M901 PAC-2 batteries are older than most of the Patriot systems currently in Ukraine. But military analysts say the older model is still fully compatible with the newer ones.

According to a person familiar with the size of Israel’s arsenal, Tel Aviv has plenty of interceptors for use with these batteries, which Kiev also needs.

Analysts also said that Israel’s older interceptors have a longer range and a larger warhead than the new PAC-3 model.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the United States, which could send them to Ukraine.

But they added that the real question was whether Tel Aviv was prepared to alienate its one-time ally Russia, despite Moscow’s increasingly close relationship with Tehran.

Israel has previously rejected Ukrainian requests for air defence systems. It also has an agreement with Russia that gives Israeli jets access to Syrian airspace.

DIPLOMACY

Polish president meets Xi Jinping in China

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Polish President Andrzej Duda met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Saturday as part of a state visit. The two leaders attended a signing ceremony in Beijing on Monday, CGTN reported.

“Bilateral exchanges and cooperation have expanded and deepened in all fields, benefiting the people of both countries. China will work with Poland to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, fulfil the commitments made at the time of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and take the relationship to greater heights,” Xi said.

The Polish leader said he had raised Russia’s war in Ukraine and the crisis on Poland’s border with Belarus during the talks, which also focused on developing economic ties.

Duda later said: “Thanks to the fact that President [Xi] called me his friend, which is a great honour for me, I am very happy to be able to contribute to the development of [Polish-Chinese] relations together with the president.”

Noting that his second and final term in office will end next year, Duda said he “hopes that these relations will be built in the future…[and] will always be based on common ideals…[and] mutual respect”.

Experts believe that this visit, which will last until Wednesday, will help strengthen China-Poland relations and increase economic cooperation between the two countries.

Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda arrived in Beijing on Saturday at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Duda and his wife were met at the airport by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li and other officials, China Central Television reported.

Duda is expected to ask for visa exemptions for Poles travelling to China and seek ways to increase Polish exports to China to balance trade relations.

Polish state statistics reported that 13.9 per cent of the country’s imports came from China last year, while Polish exports to China were only a fraction of that amount.

A number of trade agreements are expected to be signed during the visit.

On Wednesday, Duda will fly to the financial centre of Shanghai to attend the Polish-Chinese Business Forum.

During his visit, Xi will hold talks with Duda to map out the future development of China-Poland relations, have in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern and jointly attend the signing ceremony of cooperation documents, Lin Jian, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a routine press briefing last Thursday.

China is willing to work with Poland to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen political mutual trust, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, jointly pioneer high-quality cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, and continuously enrich the connotation of the China-Poland comprehensive strategic partnership, Lin said.

Cui Hongjian, a professor with the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Sunday that China’s relations with Central and Eastern Europe have remained stable this year, and Poland sees this visit as a way to boost cooperation in both political and economic fields.

Cui said strengthening cooperation with China would not only benefit Poland’s economy, but also help Warsaw increase its influence within the EU. Although Poland and the United States have been in close contact in recent years, Duda’s visit shows that the Eastern European country is seeking balanced diplomacy to build close ties with China as well, Cui said.

Chinese experts also said that while Beijing and Brussels have a complex relationship and the EU has threatened to launch a potential trade war against China, Poland could play a positive role in negotiating bilateral relations between China and the bloc.

Janusz Piechocinski, Poland’s former deputy prime minister, said in an interview with the Global Times: “China will remain a powerful engine of the global economy. Trade wars with China could reduce demand and limit opportunities for trade expansion. We need more cooperation and less confrontation, a more practical dialogue aimed at solving problems rather than exacerbating them through protectionist measures.

Experts expect the Russia-Ukraine crisis to be on the agenda during Duda’s visit, as Poland has thrown its full weight behind Ukraine. Although China’s position on the Ukraine crisis differs from Poland’s, Beijing has been in close contact with Warsaw since the beginning of the crisis. In March this year, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, embarked on a second round of shuttle diplomacy to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, visiting Poland in the process.

This is Duda’s third visit to China as President of Poland. The first was in November 2015, after which he became the only elected EU leader to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. Xi also visited Poland in 2016.

“I try to maintain friendly relations with China, Poland has always had good relations with China and I want this to continue,” Duda said in an interview with private Radio Zet on Friday.

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DIPLOMACY

American troops begin withdrawal from Niger

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Following the decision by Niger’s military government to expel US forces from the country, the withdrawal of US troops serving in the country and the process of moving their equipment has officially begun.

According to the AA report, which cites local sources, US troops are being withdrawn from the country following the termination of the military agreement that allowed military and civilian personnel from the US Department of Defense to serve in Niger. It was learnt that 269 soldiers and tonnes of equipment had been sent to the US in the first phase.

Senior US officials had travelled to Niger in March to ensure that the US would maintain its base in the country despite the suspension of military and development aid to Niger’s coup government. But after three days of waiting, the US delegation left without meeting the country’s military commander, General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, and on 17 March Niger announced the end of the military partnership Washington had come to secure and demanded that US troops leave the country immediately.

It was then announced that the US would leave the country completely by mid-September.

There are around 1000 US troops in Niger. Near the city of Agadez, at the southern end of the Sahara, there is a drone base called ‘Niger Air Base 201’.

Niger 201 is the second largest base in Africa after the permanent base in Djibouti, where the US also conducts drone operations.

Built and funded by the US and owned by the Nigerian army, the base has been operational since 2019 and is equipped with high-tech satellite communications systems.

Niger 201, which is leased from the Niger state for 10 years, is considered the largest and most expensive UAV base in the US.

The US, which spent $110 million on its construction and $30 million on its annual maintenance, uses the base as its main intelligence and surveillance centre in the Sahel.

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Chinese vice president meets with Turkey’s FM

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Foreign Minister Fidan met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The two foreign ministers held a joint press conference after the meeting. The good relations between Turkey and China will contribute to regional and global peace, prosperity and stability,” Fidan said.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a delegation meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing as part of his visit to China. Speaking at the joint press conference held after the meeting, Fidan said Turkey and China have overlapping views in many areas of international relations and both countries are committed to a fairer understanding in the international system, adding that good relations between Turkey and China will contribute to regional and global peace, prosperity and stability. Turkey and China share a common understanding on Ukraine,” Fidan added.

Turkey fully supports China’s territorial integrity,” Fidan said, adding, “We are closely following the developments in the Asia-Pacific region and their geopolitical implications. We believe that the challenges in the Asia-Pacific region require effective multilateralism, efforts for constructive dialogue and cooperation based on common priorities.

Fidan stressed that China’s sensitivity on the Palestinian issue is very welcome, saying that they appreciate China’s solidarity with the Palestinians and its strong support for the two-state solution.

Noting the importance of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for a comprehensive, competent and effective international peace conference for a solution in Palestine, Fidan said, ‘We will continue to work with China for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Visit to Uighur region

Fidan, who will also visit the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region on Wednesday as part of his visit to China, referred to the cities of Kashgar and Urumqi and said: “These cities also play the role of a bridge between China and the Turkic world and between China and the Islamic world. They are the symbols of our historical friendship and neighbourhood. The unity of societies and peoples is the greatest wealth of strong states. I would like to express that I will be very happy to witness the historical and cultural richness of these regions.

The last high-level visit from Turkey to the region was by President Tayyip Erdoğan, then Prime Minister, in 2012.

Cooperation against Western hegemony

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that ‘China and Turkey should strengthen cooperation and oppose all forms of hegemony and power politics’.

China and Turkey should strengthen cooperation and intensify efforts to find a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue,” Wang Yi added.

Emphasis on upholding the one-China principle and enhancing security cooperation

According to a Chinese statement, Fidan also met with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on Tuesday. Fidan told Han that Turkey is committed to the one-China principle and ‘will not allow activities in Turkey that harm China’s territorial integrity’, the statement said. Fidan added that Ankara was ready for close high-level exchanges with Beijing.

Fidan had met in Beijing the previous day with Chen Wenqing, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the CPC Political and Legal Affairs Commission. According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, Chen Wenqing told Fidan that in recent years the two presidents, Xi Jinping and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have reached a consensus on deepening China-Turkey strategic cooperation and drawn up a long-term plan for the development of bilateral relations. Chen noted that China is willing to join hands with Turkey, take the consensus of the two leaders as a guide, promote bilateral security cooperation to a new level, better safeguard the security interests of the two countries, and make the development strategy of the two countries converge.

Harmonisation of the Belt and Road and the Middle Corridor

Minister Fidan also delivered a speech on “Turkey-China Relations in a Changing World Order” at the China and Globalisation Centre think-tank in Beijing the previous day.

In his speech, Fidan said that Turkey’s geo-strategic position and extensive trade relations provide free and easy access to a $28 trillion market with a population of around 1.5 billion, stretching from Europe to the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia.

Fidan also touched on the Caspian Trans-Caspian East-West Central Corridor initiative, which will run from Turkey through the Caucasus, Caspian Sea and Central Asian states to China, in parallel with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Noting that the Middle Corridor will shorten the land route between Europe and Asia by 2,000 kilometres and the sea route by 15 days, Fidan said the initiative is in natural harmony with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Noting that the Middle Corridor provides uninterrupted and faster access to the Black Sea and Mediterranean basins, as well as Europe and Africa, Fidan recalled that a Memorandum of Understanding was signed with China in 2015 to harmonise the two initiatives and enhance cooperation.

Noting the importance of harmonising the Central Corridor with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Fidan stressed that the project has become even more important at this time, when the Russian-Ukrainian war continues and the war in Gaza affects the Red Sea, and geopolitical risks are increasing.

Fidan stressed the importance of creating synergies between the Central Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative with other connectivity projects, such as the Development Road Project, which could link Eurasian economic powerhouses for prosperous regional integration.

‘Of course we want to be a member of BRICS’

Turkey is in a customs union with Brussels but is also exploring new opportunities for cooperation with various partners on different platforms such as BRICS, a group of 10 emerging economies, said Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

“Of course we want to become a member of BRICS. We will see how this year goes,” he said.

Fidan also said he was looking forward to attending next week’s meeting of the mechanism in Russia, where BRICS foreign ministers will meet ahead of the October summit in Kazan.

One of the topics on the agenda is expected to be the possibility of NATO ally Turkey joining the BRICS group.

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