Diplomacy
US considers broad software export ban in response to China’s trade restrictions
The US is considering restricting software exports to China in response to Beijing’s limitations on rare earth element exports. The Washington administration is evaluating broad restrictions on the sale of products made with American software to China. This measure, still in the draft stage, could affect a wide range of items, from laptops to jet engines.
The US administration is considering imposing comprehensive restrictions on the export of products made with American software to China.
An American official and three other sources familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency that the proposed measures could cover a wide range of products, from laptops to jet engines. The draft measures are still under review.
Trump’s new trade move
In a statement early in October, US President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose new restrictions on the export of “critical software” to China and to apply a 100% tariff on Chinese-made goods.
Trump shared these decisions on his social media account on October 10, stating that the measures would take effect by November 1.
The President cited Beijing’s new restrictions on the export of rare earth elements as the reason for these steps.
Sources speaking to Reuters reported that the administration has not yet made a final decision. However, the consideration of such a measure indicates that Washington is contemplating a significant escalation of its economic conflict with China.
Two of the sources stated that some US officials favor more limited measures.
Treasury secretary: Every option is on the table
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at the White House, “Everything is on the table.” Bessent said that any potential restrictions on software exports could be implemented in coordination with G7 countries.
Following this development, US financial markets experienced volatility. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell by approximately 1%.
“Software is a natural leverage point for the US”
Emily Kilcrease, a former trade official currently at the Center for a New American Security, stated that software is a natural point of leverage for the US.
“I hope they only put threats on the table that they can actually implement,” Kilcrease said.
Kilcrease also noted that implementing such restrictions could be difficult and might provoke a significant backlash from American industry.
Beijing’s response: We will retaliate if the wrong path is taken
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not comment directly on the proposed measures but accused the US of exercising “unilateral long-arm jurisdiction.”
“If the US goes down the wrong path, China will take measures to resolutely protect its legitimate rights and interests,” the spokesperson said.
A source close to the matter suggested that the administration might be raising this plan as a negotiating tool to pressure Beijing, without necessarily intending to implement it.
Two other sources reported that narrower versions of the draft are also being considered.
Another person familiar with the issue highlighted the potential global impact of the restrictions, stating, “Everything imaginable is made with American software.”
Could shake global trade
Experts indicate that such a step could significantly impact global trade, especially in the technology sector, and could also impose costs on the US economy.
This proposal is reminiscent of the technology export restrictions the US imposed on Russia following its military intervention in Ukraine in 2022.
At that time, Washington banned the sale of products made using US technology to Moscow.
Trump’s announcements coincided with the period before a planned Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in South Korea and came one day after Beijing imposed new restrictions on rare earth element exports.
In his post, the President accused China of “preparing to implement comprehensive export controls on almost all of its products” and described this policy as a “moral outrage.”
Inconsistent steps in export policies
The Trump administration has shown varying approaches to export controls in recent months. The administration first restricted the shipment of artificial intelligence chips made by Nvidia and AMD to China, then reversed that decision.
At the end of May, after Beijing delayed shipments of rare earth elements to US automakers, Washington imposed new restrictions on chip design software and other products. However, these measures were relaxed in July.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government criticized a recent rule that prohibits US firms from doing business with companies that have a 50% or greater partnership with sanctioned Chinese entities.
Currently, Chinese-made products are subject to an average tariff of 55% in the US.
If Trump’s planned increases take effect, this rate is expected to rise to 155%.
However, in another social media post on October 12, the President stated, “The US wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week, ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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