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US seeks to encircle China from the east with a ‘sea wall’: Rear Admiral Sevim

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Tensions continue to escalate in the South China Sea, triggered by the recent standoff between China and the Philippines over a disputed submerged reef. Alongside ongoing military exercises involving Australia, the Philippines and the US, there will be also another joint naval drill off the coast of the Philippines this week between the US, Japan, and Australia. Retired Rear Admiral Alaettin Sevim analyzes these developments as integral components of the broader US and Western strategy to “containment China from the east”.

In early August, a Chinese coast guard vessel deployed water cannons to obstruct a Philippine government boat attempting to deliver supplies to troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal.

While minor flare-ups between China and the Philippines are not uncommon, the recent incident took on significance due to the involvement of the US. This was further highlighted by the subsequent statements from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who pledged to defend Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, and Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific fleet, who expressed readiness to assist Manila if China interfered with resupply efforts at the Second Thomas Shoal.

It’s important to note that the US and the Philippines have an augmented mutual defense treaty in place. Despite China’s opposition, Manila is poised to persist with similar resupply missions, escorted by both the coast guard and, reportedly, even US assets, as speculation suggests.

Furthermore, Manila intends to initiate joint patrols with the US later this year, with the inaugural operation possibly focusing on the Second Thomas Shoal.

Stranded US Warship

In 1999, the Philippine navy intentionally grounded the US-built warship BRP Sierra Madre on a reef, using it as a strategic position to monitor China’s activities in the region.

Legal proceedings were initiated by the Philippines in January 2013 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to challenge China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. On July 12, 2016, an international arbitration panel declared that the Second Thomas Shoal, situated in the Spratly Islands, falls within the Philippines’ continental shelf and its exclusive economic zone. China rejected this ruling from The Hague and declined to comply.

China maintains that its actions are in line with international law and accuses the United States of stoking discord in the South China Sea rather than promoting diplomatic solutions.

According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin, the US is responsible for encouraging and supporting certain countries’ violations of maritime rights, fostering division among regional nations, and thus destabilizing the regional order.

“The Underlying Agenda”

In an exclusive interview with Harici, retired Rear Admiral Dr. Alaettin Sevim stated, “The US is systematically working to contain China from the east with a sea wall.”

Sevim elaborated, “The US is establishing a continuous arc spanning from the Bering Strait to New Zealand, effectively encircling China from the eastern maritime front.”

“This zone encompasses disputed territories, especially around the South China Sea’s Spratly Islands. Multiple parties, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, assert their claims within this region. The UN Tribunal on the Law of the Sea previously ruled against China in a dispute involving the Philippines. Despite the ruling, China remains steadfast in its refusal to acknowledge it, insisting on bilateral negotiations. Hence, debates regarding maritime sovereignty in this area will persist.”

India’s Disengagement

Sevim argued that the US aims to demonstrate the resilience of its maritime barrier and augment the forces supporting it. He pointed to the ongoing joint exercises involving the USA, Japan, and Australia in the region. He also highlighted the increased US military presence in the Philippines, which he interpreted as facets of the broader US and Western strategy to “strengthen the eastern perimeter” against China.

Sevim noted that the US seeks to extend this strategy to the oceans through initiatives like AUKUS and QUAD. He mentioned that, so far, India has not been convinced to participate, which has prevented the West from achieving similar control in the Indian Ocean.

While Sevim did not foresee these efforts escalating into armed conflict, he anticipated that tensions would persist.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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ASIA

Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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