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Dimon advises stocking bullets, not Bitcoin, amid economic and security concerns

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Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of the international investment bank JPMorgan Chase, offered striking assessments on a wide array of topics, from the US economy and national security to technological advancements and leadership, during an interview with Fox Business at the Reagan National Economy Forum last week.

Dimon specifically addressed the Senate bill concerning spending cuts and the continuation of tax rates, emphasizing the importance of stability to enable business investment and foster growth.

‘I am excited that they passed the bill’

Commenting on the Senate bill, which some senators criticized for insufficient spending cuts, Dimon stated, “First of all, I am excited that they passed the bill.”

Noting that House Speaker Mike Johnson did “an incredible job” on this matter, Dimon expressed that the Senate should also finalize the bill.

Dimon assessed, “Increasing stability, ensuring tax rates continue, and allowing small and large businesses to invest is genuinely important for growth. If we look back at the 2017 bill, it brought trillions of dollars back to the US and created numerous jobs and significant growth. Those examining these figures are not actually articulating what they represent. So, it will work.”

Dimon later suggested that instead of implementing cuts in areas such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, the focus should be on enhancing efficiency, adding, “I think it is better for them to conclude this matter as effectively as possible. The smaller the deficit, the better.”

When queried about his confidence in the extension of tax cuts, Dimon replied, “Not so much for JPMorgan. However, if you converse with small businesses uncertain whether their rate will be 28% or 40%, they require it. If you speak with numerous companies engaged in substantial R&D or significant equipment expenditure, they need certainty.”

He stressed that uncertainty must be dispelled promptly to prevent the postponement of investments.

‘Bond markets will face a challenging period’

Addressing concerns regarding debt and budget deficits, Dimon described this as a “major issue” and a “genuine problem.”

Dimon cautioned, “One day, bond markets will face a challenging period. I do not know if it will be in six months or six years. Therefore, I believe we need to concentrate on this.”

Asserting that the primary focus should be on growth, pro-business policies, appropriate regulations, permit reforms, and the reduction of bureaucracy, Dimon said, “Achieve this growth. That is the optimal path. Then, reform certain programs that everyone acknowledges can be appropriately reformed.”

When asked to clarify his statement about a potential “break” in the bond market, Dimon explained, “What the public needs to comprehend is that approximately $30 trillion worth of securities are traded daily. These are investors from across the globe. Foreigners hold $35 trillion in American securities. They possess roughly another $30 trillion in private investments in the US. People vote with their feet and will scrutinize the country, the rule of law, inflation rates, central bank policies, what they wish to hedge against, and what they do not.”

Dimon stated that these rates are not dictated by central banks but can be influenced, “If people decide that the American dollar is not where it ought to be, yes, you could see spreads widen, credit spreads widen. And that develops into a problem.”

Recalling that this scenario occurred previously during the COVID period, in 2019 and 2020, Dimon remarked, “It will happen again, I can almost guarantee you. I just do not know precisely when or what the trigger will be.”

Dimon noted that such volatility would adversely affect small businesses raising capital and credit markets, rather than large banks.

Growth expectation for the second half of the year

When asked about growth expectations for the latter half of the year, Dimon indicated that his own economists project a figure around 1.5%, but he himself is uncertain.

Stating he did not concur with Kevin Hassett’s 4% growth forecast, Dimon commented, “I hope he is correct. I simply do not know.”

Also touching upon JPMorgan’s own growth figures, Dimon explained that the company’s success stems from 15 years of continuous investments, new branches, new bankers, and dedicated customer service.

Dimon said, “Profits fluctuate for many different reasons, but we enjoy undertaking this, and we are quite confident that we can expand our company.”

Expressing that they encounter significant competition, including from fintech companies and foreign banks, Dimon observed, “I always examine those who outperform us and the reasons for their success; I do not merely focus on our own performance.”

‘Stablecoins, data, and real-time payments have a future’

Responding to a question about the impact of stablecoin legislation on banks, Dimon replied, “Firstly, we have a JPMorgan Coin. If by crypto you mean stablecoins, moving data, real-time payments, and combining data and payments, these elements are real. We will be at the forefront of this.”

Stating that JPMorgan Coin can currently move money and data, and that they plan to open it to external use in the future, Dimon highlighted the importance of legal regulations such as anti-money laundering (AML), the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), and Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols.

Dimon said, “We already transfer $10 trillion daily, and that is digital. There will be very beneficial applications for blockchain.”

Noting that JPMorgan invests approximately $20 billion in technology, Dimon specified that this expenditure covers areas such as networks, large data centers, artificial intelligence policies (mentioning that billions have already been allocated to AI alone), and cybersecurity (billions of dollars to protect customers).

China observations and US internal problems

Sharing observations from his recent visit to China, Dimon acknowledged that cyberattacks are a significant issue but stated, “I am not afraid of them.”

Observing that China is forging its own path with substantial investments in areas like artificial intelligence, automobiles, and robotics, Dimon remarked, “They will possess 30% or 40% of new pharmaceuticals in a short period. They are proceeding in their own way. However, they also have vulnerabilities. They still contend with considerable poverty. They exist in a very challenging neighborhood. Many of their neighbors are rearming. They must contend with us. We remain the most prosperous economy on the planet.”

Emphasizing that his primary concern is not China, but the US’s “inability to resolve its own internal problems,” Dimon asserted, “If America manages its affairs correctly—deregulation, permits, education, pro-business policies, economic expansion, aiding low-income individuals through economic growth, rectifying immigration—we will be in an excellent position. In 30 or 40 years, we will be the preeminent military and economic power. If not, the world will be a vastly different place from what we experience today.”

‘We should stock bullets, tanks, and missiles, not Bitcoin’

Also addressing national security policies, Dimon stated that the world relies on the US military umbrella, and this is significant.

“It becomes a problem if countries begin to look elsewhere for their national security. This is directly linked to their economic security,” Dimon said, underscoring the importance of issues such as investment, development finance, and the education of American values, in addition to trade.

When asked what should be stocked, referencing a prior statement, Dimon replied, “I said we should stock bullets, tanks, and missiles, not Bitcoin.”

Stressing that the most crucial element for national security is resilient supply chains, Dimon declared, “From medical supplies to everything that goes into our F-35s, rare earth elements, and related items. Things like two-nanometer AI chips. Yes, we assert this is important for American national security. We require resilient supply chains.”

He added that the military needs greater flexibility and multi-year budgeting.

‘Markets are complacent’

To a final question regarding the current state of the markets, Dimon responded, “Complacent. Prices are high; things appear to be progressing smoothly. Prices somewhat indicate a soft landing. I hope that is accurate. I am merely informing people that the probability of this occurring is lower than others perceive, and it will be a surprise. Numerous factors are in motion, from deficits to geopolitics and trade. It is complex, and things can go awry. And when things go awry, it is usually a surprise.”

He further noted that his role is not to predict the future but to be prepared to serve customers regardless of what the future may hold.

America

Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

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The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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