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Uzbekistan stops transportation to Afghanistan over “breach” of contract

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Uzbekistan Railways has suspended rail transportation to Afghanistan from February 1, blaming the Taliban authorities for not fulfilling technical obligation as per an agreement signed between the two sides in December.

The company in a statement said that the Taliban failed to honor its technical work obligations.

“Considering that Afghanistan Railway Authority is unable to implement the agreed measures in time, please be advised that railroad shipments on the Galaba/Hairton – Mazar-i-Sharif line in Afghanistan’s northern province of Balkh will be suspended from February 1,” Interfax reported, citing the statement.

On December 26-30, the Uzbek and Afghan representatives met in Termez, a city in south of Uzbekistan on the border with Afghanistan and they agreed on a plan of phased technical work to be performed by Afghan railroad workers in Afghanistan by February 1, 2023.

During the meeting, Sogdiana Trans and the Afghanistan Railway Authority mutually also agreed on the list of works to be performed and their prices. They also reached consensus to sign a new contract by January 27 of this year.

Railway line was built in 2010

Uzbekistan Railway furthered that since the line was built in 2010, all services to the railway line have been provided by its subsidiary company Sogdiana Trans.

The company said “to support entrepreneurs and ensure continuous cargo transportation to Afghanistan, as well as to prevent delays in delivering essential goods to Afghanistan, Sogdiana Trans will give practical assistance in transporting cargo to Afghanistan by truck from Termez logistics centers and via the Termez river port,” the press service said.

It will be part of an effort to prevent the stoppage of transportation of essential goods to Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan Railways built the 75-kilometer Hairaton – Mazar-i-Sharif railroad worth $129 million in 2010. Sogdiana Trans was established a year later to operate and service this line.

Taliban security forces at Hairatan port between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan

However, just before negotiations with Uzbekistan Railways, the Taliban officials on December six last year, just two weeks before discussions, signed a contract with a Kazakhstani company, Mansour Fatih, to manage the Hairatan-Mazar-e-Sharif railway line.

Local media in that time in Uzbekistan reported that the Kazak Company would manage technical issues for the line.

Taliban yet to comment

The Taliban officials did not comment on the news so far and the stop on railway services would definitely impact negatively on the country’s already fragile economic situation.

However, the Taliban has tried its best to sign different contracts with foreign countries to manage its economy and also the office of the Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy had said that over the past 10 months, the nation’s exports have topped $1.7 billion and that revenue from this has been collected.

The office said that despite several difficulties including the freezing of Afghan assets and other restrictions on the banking system, they worked hard to keep the value of the Afghani currency against dollars and other foreign exchange.

The ministry also said that increase in exports has led to the surge in revenue.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Wali Haqmal, a spokesman for the finance ministry said that since March until the end of January 10, they have collected nearly 150 million Afs.

The majority of the revenue was from the customs office, according to him.

Revenue growth

Abdul Latif Nazari, the Deputy Minister of Economy, said that domestic and foreign revenue has grown 90%, and put two reasons behind them. One of the main reasons was the reduction in inflation and the second was the increase in exports from Afghanistan.

Nazari said that an unprecedented record has been broken.

The economic pundits believe that these revenues must be invested in improving infrastructural projects.

The Prime Minister’s office said that despite all the challenges including sanctions on the banking system, they were able to provide the salaries of around 800,000 employees from domestic budget and income.

Low-quality diesel

Moreover, the Afghanistan National Standards Authority (ANSA) said that they have returned four tankers of low-quality diesel back to Iran.

ANSA said that they stopped and returned these tankers at Islam Qala port in Herat province over poor quality of the fuel. The authority has taken practical steps to prevent the importation of low-quality oil.

ANSA also called on the traders to import goods in standard quality otherwise they will face the same consequences.

In early this month, the ANSA also sent 26 tankers of “poor quality” fuel back to Iran.

At the same time, Iran ambassador to Afghanistan, Hassan Kazemi Qomi said that Tehran has taken measures to facilitate the visa issuance to the Afghan businessmen.

Qomi in a tweet said that “with the aim of developing commercial-economic cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan, facilitating the process of issuing and receiving multiple-entry business visas will be accelerated for Afghan businessmen.”

Earlier, the Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in a meeting with the Iranian envoy appreciated Iran’s efforts for the facilitation of the visa issuance process, economic cooperation, securing the common border, and hosting Afghan immigrants.

Asia

Nvidia CEO visits China amid US AI chip ban

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Beijing on Thursday after Washington’s new restrictions on the chipmaker’s sales caused its shares to fall.

Huang’s visit comes at a time when Beijing and Washington are facing off in a tariff war, and Nvidia is one of the US technology leaders bearing the brunt of the trade war. Huang had dinner with US President Donald Trump a week earlier.

According to local media and a person familiar with his travel itinerary, Huang arrived in China on Wednesday to meet with officials and technology leaders to discuss the consequences of Donald Trump’s move to further restrict sales in the country.

According to a post on Chinese state media’s social media site Weibo, Huang’s trip took place at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, a government-affiliated trade group heavily involved in facilitating US-China business relations.

The Financial Times reported that while in Beijing, Huang also met with Liang Wenfeng, the founder of Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek, to discuss developments in the artificial intelligence chip industry.

The post, which showed Huang smiling for the cameras, noted that the visit came after the US President had previously said he wanted to continue working with China.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chip—a lower-powered version of its artificial intelligence products specifically designed for the Chinese market to comply with US controls.

Nvidia had been under the impression that it could continue selling the chip to China after the meeting between Huang and Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. The chipmaker had told major Chinese customers such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent that their H20 purchases would not be affected.

Nvidia announced yesterday that it would take a $5.5 billion hit to earnings as a result of the new controls.

The visit also comes as US lawmakers are requesting information from Nvidia about whether Chinese artificial intelligence group DeepSeek has been able to obtain export-controlled chips.

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China’s economy exceeds expectations with 5.4% growth in first quarter

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China’s economy surpassed expectations in the first quarter, driven by robust consumption and industrial production.

According to data released on Wednesday, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, exceeding the 5.1% increase expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the 5.4% growth rate as “a very good start,” noting that government stimulus had boosted consumption and supported investment.

“In each of the past two years, China’s first quarter has been high, and the second quarter has been low,” Xu said, adding that a “strong and timely policy response” was needed, given the additional pressure from US tariffs.

Exports helped support growth last year, even as a trillion-dollar trade surplus, a prolonged real estate sector slump, and sluggish domestic demand continued to undermine a solid recovery.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said this week that the country’s exporters would have to cope with “profound” external changes and pledged to support greater domestic consumption.

According to Reuters, analysts are concerned that US tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the momentum China has gained.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate as low as 4.5% in 2025, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%, according to a Reuters poll. Many analysts have sharply lowered their GDP forecasts for this year.

On Wednesday, ANZ lowered its China 2025 GDP forecast from 4.8% to 4.2% and its 2026 forecast from 4.5% to 4.3%, citing punitive US tariffs.

UBS painted an even more pessimistic picture this week, cutting its 2025 growth forecast for the Asian giant from 4% to 3.4%, assuming continued increases in China-US tariffs and additional stimulus from Beijing.

“We believe the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges for China’s exports and will also lead to a major adjustment in the domestic economy,” UBS analysts said in a note.

While many other countries are covered by US tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the largest tariffs.

Last week, Trump’s move to raise tariffs on China by 145% led to Beijing raising tariffs on US goods by 125%.

Unemployment and deflation issues

The escalating trade war with the US overshadowed some of the brighter notes in separate data.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, after increasing 4.0% in January-February, while growth in factory output accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both figures exceeded analysts’ forecasts.

The increase in retail sales was driven by sharp double-digit increases in sales of home electronics and furniture, aided by the government’s consumer goods trade-in program.

However, the decline in China’s real estate sector continued to be a drag on overall growth.

Real estate investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, widening from a 9.8% drop in January-February. New home prices in March were unchanged from the previous month.

Data released on Wednesday indicated that the economic recovery is still uneven, particularly as high unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures raise concerns about weak demand.

“A good GDP does not represent the overall economic health of an economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. “Deflation and youth unemployment remain major concerns,” he added.

Broad policy measures required

Moreover, analysts believe that the increase in China’s exports in March—driven by factories rushing shipments to beat Trump’s latest tariffs—could sharply reverse in the coming months as heavy US tariffs take effect.

Analysts expect further support measures in the coming months, following monetary easing steps taken late last year.

Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s credit rating, citing rapidly growing public debt and risks to public finances, signaling a difficult balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption in the face of declining trade.

“The current situation is similar to the negative shocks China has experienced in the past, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008,” said Yeung from ANZ.

“We see limited options for Chinese authorities other than a major fiscal expansion to counter the tariff shock,” he assessed.

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China trade fair: US market ‘frozen’ amid tariff hikes

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Candice Li, attending the China trade fair in Canton, says that US orders for her firm’s medical devices have dried up after Washington increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%.

Speaking to Reuters, Candice Li, marketing manager at Conmo Electronic Co., said, “This is a matter of life and death because 60%-70% of our business is with American clients.” She added, “Goods cannot be exported, and money cannot be collected. This is a very serious situation.”

Li was at her firm’s booth at the Canton Fair in the southern city of Guangzhou, China’s largest trade fair, held twice a year, where more than 30,000 participants display their products in an area larger than 200 soccer fields.

This fair is the first China has held since US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs earlier this month, exceeding 100% for China and at least 10% for the rest of the world.

Most of the exporters Reuters spoke with said that US orders, vital for firms like Li’s, were either delayed or not arriving—a bad sign for the world’s second-largest economy, whose growth last year relied heavily on its trillion-dollar trade surplus.

No other country comes close to China’s sales of over $400 billion in goods to the US annually.

Even though the tariffs Trump will impose on the rest of the world are much lower, they are likely to reduce global demand in the coming months and, indirectly, the appetite for Chinese goods in other countries.

Kobe Huang, a sales representative for Shenzhen Landun Environmental Technology, which produces water filters and smart toilets, said at the China trade fair in Canton that European sales are up for now, but the US market is “frozen.”

“US clients and distributors haven’t canceled orders, but they’ve asked us to wait. So, we’re holding on,” he stated.

Levy Spence, a US importer and president of Air Esscentials, said, “Prices will go up.” He added, “Even for products we source in the United States, many of the raw materials come from all over the world. It’s not just about China tariffs.”

Organizers noted that approximately 170,000 overseas buyers had registered for this month’s fair as of April 8, compared to a record attendance of 253,000 at the previous fair, which ended in November. About 10% of these attendees come from the US and Europe, whereas the previous rate was about 20%.

The fair will take place from April 15 to May 5. Local media reported that a total of $25 billion in deals were made at the previous fair.

Many exporters said they were either moving production bases outside of China or shifting the markets where they sell away from the US.

Henry Han, sales manager at Apexto Electronics Co., which produces SSD and micro SD flash drives, says that the US market, which accounted for 30% before the pandemic, now accounts for only 10% of direct sales. Many of his clients receive shipments of components for final assembly in a third country to avoid tariffs.

Apexto conducted a study last year to see if it could move production to Vietnam or the Philippines to avoid being directly affected by US tariffs, but Han said these plans are currently on hold as these countries may also face high tariffs.

After Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam and 17% on the Philippines on April 2, he reduced these rates to 10% for the next three months while beginning bilateral negotiations on trade with approximately 75 different countries.

David Du, sales manager for speaker manufacturer Zealot, said that an order for 30,000 speakers to be distributed to Skechers stores in the US was suspended after Trump’s tariffs. However, he said they could rely on other markets.

Zealot had a major and unexpected breakthrough in Nigeria in 2015, where its all-in-one speaker, power bank, and emergency flashlight became a hit, accounting for 40% of total sales and taking 45 containers a month—a market now twice as large as the US.

Du said they are “as big as JBL” in Nigeria, referring to the California-based audio equipment brand.

Medical device maker Li said her firm cannot find new markets overnight. She fears Conmo will soon have to reduce working hours and, eventually, staffing levels.

Li said, “I worry that if the situation remains deadlocked and neither side gives in, it will be ordinary people who ultimately suffer. How will salaries be paid? There will be unemployment.”

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