Diplomacy
Valdai Club proposes roadmap to resolve Russia-India trade imbalance
The report, presented at a conference organized by the Valdai Discussion Club in collaboration with the Vivekananda Foundation, recommended “a shift from a transactional approach to a long-term approach” for the sustainable growth of Russia-India trade relations.
The report outlines a set of measures to address the trade imbalance and achieve the goal of $100 billion in trade volume by 2030.
Marking the beginning of a new era in Russian-Indian trade relations, the report was submitted for review to the Vedomosti newspaper.
Significant progress has been made in recent years to strengthen bilateral trade. Payment mechanisms in national currencies have been bolstered, logistical and insurance frameworks expanded, and trade flows safeguarded against external interference.
However, of the $66 billion trade volume, $60.9 billion represents Russian exports to India, while India’s exports to Russia remain limited to $5 billion. This disparity underscores the need for corrective measures.
To correct the existing imbalance and reach the target of $100 billion in trade volume by 2030, set during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow in July 2024, the Valdai report proposed several measures.
First, it proposed to “launch full-scale negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and India as soon as possible.”
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk mentioned consultations in October, while the Ministry of Economic Development stated in January that negotiations could take place in 2025.
The author of the report, Lidiya Kulik, Head of the Department of Indian Studies at the Skolkovo School of Management, told Vedomosti that the process would be lengthy. “It is not possible for Russia to conclude an FTA with India alone without the EAEU. This requires an assessment of product positions and tariff policies with all participants,” Kulik said.
Another important proposal is to sign a new agreement on mutual investment protection or a similar document as soon as possible. The 1994 agreement expired in 2017. The Hindustan Times reported that a new agreement was being discussed for September 2024.
According to Kulik, India has previously terminated such agreements with dozens of countries to re-sign them “modularly” on a single template. The main challenge is the need for special conditions for investments between Moscow and Delhi.
In the absence of agreements, strengthening ties between the countries’ regions and utilizing the potential of special economic zones could optimize the working conditions of companies.
Kulik noted that India has extensive experience working with 280 economic zones, and it is important to establish connections between these zones and the regions of the Russian Far East.
The document also proposed “further development” of the trade and investment cooperation program in the Far East and the Arctic by 2029, including roadmaps for concrete projects.
Additionally, the report emphasized the importance of diversifying business contacts based on small and medium-sized enterprises. Currently, large state-owned companies dominate the trade relationship.
Gleb Makarevich of the Centre for the Indo-Pacific Region at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO) noted that “everything can work when there is a foundation in the form of established contacts and market knowledge.”
Addressing sanctions, the report recommended accelerating the development of financial infrastructure and resolving issues with individual payment mechanisms.
This is “one of the basic conditions for economic relations under sanctions,” Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam Finance Group, told Vedomosti.
According to Kulik, the problem for legal entities has largely been resolved—there are no pending rupees, two Russian banks are operational, and “the third is in line.” She added, “The problem is the cost of payments and bank commissions. Trade imbalance makes them more expensive, and banks need competition.”
The Valdai report highlighted logistics as a critical area for the development of bilateral trade and encouraged Indian investors to invest in the North-South International Transport Corridor, the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Sea Corridor (India announced the opening of the line in November 2024), and the Northern Sea Route.
Kulik noted that the Eastern Corridor is limited by the capacity of the Eastern line in Siberia, the North-South Corridor is still “not working properly” due to its multimodality and lack of infrastructure, and the idea of subsidizing transport through a single operator has been rejected by anti-monopoly agencies.
According to Makarevich, there are two views on the development of corridors: they will become functional “when there is something to transport” or when they are fully technologically ready.
The report cited the “inadequate” situation in mutual product certification as one of the urgent problems requiring solutions at the ministerial level.
According to Kulik, unlike tax authorities and customs, direct contact has not yet been established in this area, and certification for some products takes “years,” hindering trade development.
Proposed measures to strengthen trade include creating favorable conditions for the diasporas of both countries and improving labor migration mechanisms.
Kulik noted that India has significant experience in labor export, but due to its aging population, there are less than 30 years left to utilize this advantage.
Although India has a population of 1.4 billion and Russia 146 million, cultural and habitual differences are unlikely to lead to the settlement of large numbers of Indian workers, Makarevich added. “Instead of low-skilled labor migration, the focus should be on educational migration and the creation of contact networks.”
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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