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Venezuela prepares record $240 billion sovereign debt restructuring

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Venezuela is preparing to undertake what would become the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history, unveiling a debt burden of $240 billion that is significantly larger than previously estimated.

According to sources familiar with the country’s plans who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Venezuela will disclose detailed information about its financial position to creditors in the coming weeks, revealing total liabilities well above market estimates of between $150 billion and $200 billion.

Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim leader, is aiming to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of the year that would pave the way for the country’s return to international capital markets after nearly a decade of exclusion under Nicolás Maduro, who was abducted in a US military operation in January.

According to sources familiar with the plans, US investment bank Centerview Partners, appointed by Caracas as its financial adviser, has helped prepare a strategy to reduce Venezuela’s debt burden to a “sustainable” level.

The plan is expected to be published in early July.

The same sources said a long-awaited macroeconomic framework will also be released later this month.

Under that framework, the size of Venezuela’s battered economy is expected to be estimated at approximately $100 billion, down sharply from $370 billion in 2012, the final year of Hugo Chávez’s presidency. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 200%.

Unusually for a major sovereign debt restructuring, the debt sustainability analysis was not prepared by the International Monetary Fund.

Bondholders are likely to interpret the assessment of the country’s finances as a signal that Venezuela will seek a substantial reduction in the value of its debt.

However, some members of Venezuela’s opposition fear that an accelerated restructuring process conducted outside the IMF’s framework could weaken the country’s negotiating position with bondholders.

Venezuelan bonds traded at 33 cents on the dollar before Maduro’s abduction and are now changing hands at around 55 cents. Those prices, however, do not include years of unpaid interest.

An investor who recently exited Venezuelan bond positions said:

“This is one of the first major restructurings where the debt sustainability analysis has not been prepared by the IMF. There should be an IMF-coordinated discussion among creditors … and a properly audited debt perimeter.”

Sources familiar with Venezuela’s debt plans said technical discussions have been taking place with the IMF regarding the country’s economic data and that the restructuring proposal will resemble an IMF-style framework.

Venezuela resumed relations with the IMF in April after a seven-year hiatus.

An IMF spokesperson said the institution is not involved in the debt restructuring process announced by Venezuela.

“Fund staff remain in regular contact with the Venezuelan authorities, including on the macroeconomic outlook, as we do with all member countries. The Fund stands ready to assist the authorities as needed.”

The restructuring would surpass Greece’s $200 billion default during the eurozone crisis in 2012, making it the largest sovereign debt restructuring on record.

Because of the diversity of Venezuela’s liabilities and the length of time since Caracas stopped servicing many of its obligations, the process had already been viewed as more complex than any previous restructuring.

Bonds issued by the government and state oil company PDVSA represent the single largest and most verifiable component of Venezuela’s debt, totaling about $60 billion, plus roughly $40 billion in post-default interest. That amount is increasing by approximately $5 billion per year.

Investors had previously estimated that Venezuela owes between $30 billion and $50 billion to oil companies and commercial creditors through unpaid bills, as well as more than $20 billion in legal compensation awarded to companies whose assets were seized under the Chávez administration.

Venezuela is also estimated to owe between $10 billion and $20 billion to China under debt arrangements previously serviced through oil exports but now believed to be in default, around $6 billion to Russia, and approximately $4 billion to development banks.

Moving faster than many creditors had expected, Rodríguez’s government launched the restructuring process last month by appointing French banker Matthieu Pigasse from Centerview. During his time at Lazard, Pigasse advised Greece, Argentina and other countries on major sovereign debt deals.

Pigasse, who joined Centerview in 2020 and was later joined by his former Lazard colleague Hamouda Chekir, has longstanding ties to Caracas through advisory work on the sale of Citgo, PDVSA’s former US subsidiary, and has maintained a close relationship with Rodríguez for more than a decade.

According to a letter obtained by the Financial Times, Lazard recently approached the Venezuelan government seeking to replace Centerview, offering to work for a fee of approximately $25 million, which it described as delivering “exceptional value.”

Lazard had sought a similar fee for its role in Greece’s 2012 debt restructuring.

Venezuela immediately rejected the proposal.

In a statement, the government said:

“As in our previous adviser selection processes, we applied a consistent set of criteria focused on team experience, expertise, quality analysis and an understanding of our circumstances … Based on the same assessments, we selected Centerview Partners as our financial adviser.”

Other sources familiar with the discussions said Centerview’s fee has not yet been finalized. Lazard declined to comment.

Bondholders are closely focused on how quickly the country can revive oil production and how crude sales restarted under US mediation following Maduro’s departure are progressing.

The Venezuelan central bank, which has resumed publishing some economic indicators on a regular basis, reported this week in its balance of payments data that oil exports totaled $5.5 billion during the first three months of the year.

Although that figure was up from $4.4 billion during the final months of the Maduro administration, it remains well below levels recorded before the default and the imposition of US sanctions.

Jeff Grills, a portfolio manager at Aegon Asset Management, said: “The timeline makes the situation even more complicated … Could this be resolved by 2026? There’s a small chance. But I think this will stretch into 2027.”

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US Senate panel seeks records in Trump-linked crypto investigation

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Richard Blumenthal, the ranking Democrat on the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), has requested documents from cryptocurrency exchange Binance, Tether, and crypto projects linked to President Donald Trump as part of inquiries into potential financial irregularities and conflicts of interest.

The documents were requested to be submitted by 4 January 2027.

Senators warned that they would resort to compulsory measures if the request was refused.

Entities sent document requests include World Liberty Financial and Fight Fight Fight LLC, both linked to President Trump’s family.

Blumenthal began examining the activities of these entities in May 2025 following reports that they may have engaged in transactions with foreigners under federal criminal investigation, attracted investments from foreign governments, and violated public ethics rules.

Notably, in 2026, it emerged that individuals close to the Abu Dhabi royal family had signed an agreement with the Trump family to purchase 49% of the shares in World Liberty Financial for $500 million.

The company, founded in September 2024 by the US President and his sons, launched a token called WLFI.

According to official disclosures, Trump made $800 million from this token alone.

Conversely, crypto analytics firm Nansen calculated, by tracking 1.48 million crypto wallets, that approximately two-thirds of those who invested in the token after its launch in January 2025 incurred losses.

While many retail investors spent several thousand dollars on purchases, the largest investors poured in millions of dollars.

Trump also launched his own memecoin, TRUMP, on 17 January 2025, prior to his inauguration.

Rising 10.6-fold in value within three days, the cryptocurrency’s market capitalisation reached $15 billion at its peak.

However, after those three days, the price entered a downturn, plunging by 97%.

Trump reported in his financial disclosure that he earned $635 million in income from sales of these memecoins.

In July 2026, Blumenthal held public hearings on the family crypto projects from which the President made $1.4 billion.

The losses suffered by TRUMP memecoin investors were also addressed during these hearings.

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance and Tether, which issues the largest stablecoin, USDT, are under scrutiny over their dealings with the Trump administration.

Lawmakers suspected conflicts of interest stemming from the exchange’s collaboration with World Liberty Financial.

Previously, a group of senators had demanded an inquiry into the terms of the presidential pardon granted to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao.

Separately, The New York Times reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) gaining access to American artificial intelligence chips coincided with a $2 billion investment by a UAE entity into Binance using USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial.

While this deal rapidly expanded the volume of tokens in circulation, it enabled Trump’s company to generate revenue from interest on government bonds where USD1 reserves were held.

Trump, for his part, described the report as slander.

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US credit card debt hits record $1.29 trillion, New York Fed reports

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Americans’ credit card debt reached a record $1.29 trillion in the third quarter, according to a new report published by the New York Fed.

Falling behind on credit card payments can trap struggling households in a cycle of fees, credit score downgrades, and increasingly expensive borrowing.

Although delinquency rates across the country have shown improvement, the latest figures indicate that financial distress is concentrated in lower-income communities.

Consumer credit card balances rose by $22 billion in the third quarter, representing an increase of 1.7%. This figure is $52 billion higher than it was a year earlier.

The figures are not adjusted for inflation, which may mean that part of the increase reflects rising prices rather than more borrowing in real terms.

Total household debt, which includes mortgages, student loans, and auto loans, rose by $334 billion in the third quarter to reach a record $19.1 trillion.

This total represents an increase of $5 trillion compared to 2019, just before the pandemic.

The volume of credit card balances falling into serious delinquency is declining, indicating some improvement in Americans’ ability to make their payments on time.

The rate of credit card debt transitioning into serious delinquency fell to 6.9% in the third quarter. However, this rate remains distinctly higher than the 5.2% recorded prior to the pandemic.

Americans living in lower-income neighbourhoods are facing greater difficulty in keeping up with their credit card payments compared to more affluent groups, according to a separate report published by the New York Fed on Tuesday.

Delinquency rates across all neighbourhood income tiers remain above pre-pandemic levels, while the gap between the wealthiest and poorest areas has widened since 2022.

In the lowest-income neighbourhoods, 10.3% of credit card balances transitioned into serious delinquency over the past year.

This is more than double the 4.4% rate observed in the wealthiest neighbourhoods.

The average credit card balance per borrower now stands at $6,678, according to TransUnion’s third-quarter analysis report.

Among borrowers under the age of 30, the rate of credit card debt falling at least 90 days delinquent reached the highest level, according to the Fed’s report.

Democrats won the midterm elections promising to bring down prices, but delivering relief that voters can genuinely feel in their household budgets will be a difficult target to achieve.

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Mamdani quietly asks Trump to release detained immigrants

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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is using his rapport with US President Donald Trump to secure the release of selected detained immigrants.

According to reporting by Politico, Mamdani persuaded Trump during their second White House meeting in February to free a university student who had been detained that day by ICE.

The outcome served as validation for Mamdani, who pointed to the release of the Columbia University senior as proof that his surprisingly cordial relationship with Trump could produce tangible results for New Yorkers.

Mamdani subsequently continued to seek similar immigration-related interventions from the Republican president.

Since that February meeting, Mamdani and his aides have quietly forwarded the names of approximately two dozen immigrant New Yorkers held in ICE custody to Trump’s team, asking the president to order their release.

Two sources familiar with the matter said Mamdani most recently shared names of detained immigrants during a September meeting with Trump at Gracie Mansion.

The sources said the individuals in question had no serious criminal records, though they declined to disclose their identities, citing safety concerns.

According to Politico, these ongoing efforts regarding detained immigrants indicate Mamdani’s belief that he can leverage his rapport with Trump to advance causes the mercurial president might not ordinarily support.

Mamdani’s decision not to disclose these continued appeals publicly suggests an inclination to keep his interventions private to improve their chances of success.

Yet it remains unclear whether any immigrant besides Columbia University student Elmina Aghayeva has actually been released as a result of these efforts, and concern is mounting within City Hall that the window for securing such releases may be closing.

Mamdani’s aides working on the releases, including his Chief of Staff Elle Bisgaard-Church, communicated primarily with Trump’s White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, according to people familiar with the matter.

Last week, Trump replaced Wiles with Stephen Miller, the architect of the administration’s most hardline immigration proposals and one of the loudest internal voices urging the president to pursue a mass deportation agenda in his second term.

A person familiar with the Mamdani administration’s thinking said the mayor’s team views it as unlikely that Miller will continue cooperating in the manner Wiles did, given his stance on immigration.

Mamdani spokesperson Dora Pekec declined to comment on internal concerns regarding Miller and did not provide details about the immigrants whose release the mayor had requested.

Pekec noted, however, that Mamdani has “consistently advocated directly on behalf of New Yorkers in his calls and meetings with the president.”

Murad Awawdeh, a close Mamdani ally and president and CEO of the New York Immigration Coalition, said the mayor’s team should not halt engagement with the Trump administration on immigration matters because of Miller’s promotion:

“Stephen Miller is a cruel individual who has spent his career attacking immigrants, but he is not the president; Donald Trump is, and this is his deportation agenda. New York expects the president to work with the mayor to serve this city and end the terror in our communities. Miller’s promotion changes none of that.”

Mamdani’s warm dynamic with Trump has confounded both allies and critics.

During last year’s New York mayoral election, Trump referred to Mamdani as a “communist lunatic” and threatened to have him arrested.

In turn, the 35-year-old democratic socialist branded the president a “fascist” and pledged to fight him relentlessly if elected mayor.

Yet that animosity fell away late last year during their first White House meeting, where an amicable tone prevailed.

The thaw culminated in September at Gracie Mansion, where Trump said Mamdani had “great potential” to be a “terrific mayor.”

Mamdani returned the compliment by noting that the president had “built quite a bit of housing in our city.”

Despite the polite exchange, questions remain over how much substantive progress Mamdani can genuinely secure through Trump, including on immigration.

To date, Aghayeva’s release stands as one of the few concrete concessions Mamdani has obtained from Trump.

Aides on both sides are also discussing a multi-billion-dollar federally backed housing initiative in Queens, and last month Mamdani used his channel to Trump to help secure a temporary visa for a Ghanaian woman whose son was shot and killed in the Bronx.

Beyond those instances, few tangible results have emerged, though Trump’s decision not to enact punitive measures against New York is viewed by Mamdani’s allies as a win for the city.

Trump’s political standing is widely seen as weakened following the Republican Party’s loss of both houses of Congress in elections last Tuesday.

How this political shift will affect Trump’s willingness to engage with ideological adversaries such as Mamdani remains uncertain.

Miller’s appointment as chief of staff appears to signal little presidential interest in moderation, particularly on immigration policy.

Even so, the mayor said last week that he does not intend to stop seeking Trump’s assistance, despite “fierce” policy disagreements.

“We have found an area of common interest in the well-being of New York City, and as long as that can deliver for our city, I’m going to keep that door open,” Mamdani told Politico on Friday in Puerto Rico.

Mamdani and other elected officials from New York had gathered in Puerto Rico for the annual Somos political conference.

Two days later, in an interview on Fox News, a network Trump is known to watch regularly, Mamdani described a “productive relationship” with the president, saying the two text and speak by phone frequently:

“Through those conversations, we were able to get a New Yorker out of ICE detention. We were able to secure a visa for a grieving mother who would have otherwise had to watch her son’s funeral from thousands of miles away. What that tells me is: My job is to deliver for New Yorkers, and I have to work with whoever has the power to do that, wherever they may be.”

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