America
Venezuela prepares record $240 billion sovereign debt restructuring
Venezuela is preparing to undertake what would become the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history, unveiling a debt burden of $240 billion that is significantly larger than previously estimated.
According to sources familiar with the country’s plans who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Venezuela will disclose detailed information about its financial position to creditors in the coming weeks, revealing total liabilities well above market estimates of between $150 billion and $200 billion.
Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s interim leader, is aiming to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of the year that would pave the way for the country’s return to international capital markets after nearly a decade of exclusion under Nicolás Maduro, who was abducted in a US military operation in January.
According to sources familiar with the plans, US investment bank Centerview Partners, appointed by Caracas as its financial adviser, has helped prepare a strategy to reduce Venezuela’s debt burden to a “sustainable” level.
The plan is expected to be published in early July.
The same sources said a long-awaited macroeconomic framework will also be released later this month.
Under that framework, the size of Venezuela’s battered economy is expected to be estimated at approximately $100 billion, down sharply from $370 billion in 2012, the final year of Hugo Chávez’s presidency. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 200%.
Unusually for a major sovereign debt restructuring, the debt sustainability analysis was not prepared by the International Monetary Fund.
Bondholders are likely to interpret the assessment of the country’s finances as a signal that Venezuela will seek a substantial reduction in the value of its debt.
However, some members of Venezuela’s opposition fear that an accelerated restructuring process conducted outside the IMF’s framework could weaken the country’s negotiating position with bondholders.
Venezuelan bonds traded at 33 cents on the dollar before Maduro’s abduction and are now changing hands at around 55 cents. Those prices, however, do not include years of unpaid interest.
An investor who recently exited Venezuelan bond positions said:
“This is one of the first major restructurings where the debt sustainability analysis has not been prepared by the IMF. There should be an IMF-coordinated discussion among creditors … and a properly audited debt perimeter.”
Sources familiar with Venezuela’s debt plans said technical discussions have been taking place with the IMF regarding the country’s economic data and that the restructuring proposal will resemble an IMF-style framework.
Venezuela resumed relations with the IMF in April after a seven-year hiatus.
An IMF spokesperson said the institution is not involved in the debt restructuring process announced by Venezuela.
“Fund staff remain in regular contact with the Venezuelan authorities, including on the macroeconomic outlook, as we do with all member countries. The Fund stands ready to assist the authorities as needed.”
The restructuring would surpass Greece’s $200 billion default during the eurozone crisis in 2012, making it the largest sovereign debt restructuring on record.
Because of the diversity of Venezuela’s liabilities and the length of time since Caracas stopped servicing many of its obligations, the process had already been viewed as more complex than any previous restructuring.
Bonds issued by the government and state oil company PDVSA represent the single largest and most verifiable component of Venezuela’s debt, totaling about $60 billion, plus roughly $40 billion in post-default interest. That amount is increasing by approximately $5 billion per year.
Investors had previously estimated that Venezuela owes between $30 billion and $50 billion to oil companies and commercial creditors through unpaid bills, as well as more than $20 billion in legal compensation awarded to companies whose assets were seized under the Chávez administration.
Venezuela is also estimated to owe between $10 billion and $20 billion to China under debt arrangements previously serviced through oil exports but now believed to be in default, around $6 billion to Russia, and approximately $4 billion to development banks.
Moving faster than many creditors had expected, Rodríguez’s government launched the restructuring process last month by appointing French banker Matthieu Pigasse from Centerview. During his time at Lazard, Pigasse advised Greece, Argentina and other countries on major sovereign debt deals.
Pigasse, who joined Centerview in 2020 and was later joined by his former Lazard colleague Hamouda Chekir, has longstanding ties to Caracas through advisory work on the sale of Citgo, PDVSA’s former US subsidiary, and has maintained a close relationship with Rodríguez for more than a decade.
According to a letter obtained by the Financial Times, Lazard recently approached the Venezuelan government seeking to replace Centerview, offering to work for a fee of approximately $25 million, which it described as delivering “exceptional value.”
Lazard had sought a similar fee for its role in Greece’s 2012 debt restructuring.
Venezuela immediately rejected the proposal.
In a statement, the government said:
“As in our previous adviser selection processes, we applied a consistent set of criteria focused on team experience, expertise, quality analysis and an understanding of our circumstances … Based on the same assessments, we selected Centerview Partners as our financial adviser.”
Other sources familiar with the discussions said Centerview’s fee has not yet been finalized. Lazard declined to comment.
Bondholders are closely focused on how quickly the country can revive oil production and how crude sales restarted under US mediation following Maduro’s departure are progressing.
The Venezuelan central bank, which has resumed publishing some economic indicators on a regular basis, reported this week in its balance of payments data that oil exports totaled $5.5 billion during the first three months of the year.
Although that figure was up from $4.4 billion during the final months of the Maduro administration, it remains well below levels recorded before the default and the imposition of US sanctions.
Jeff Grills, a portfolio manager at Aegon Asset Management, said: “The timeline makes the situation even more complicated … Could this be resolved by 2026? There’s a small chance. But I think this will stretch into 2027.”
America
US wealthy demolish multimillion-dollar mansions for land
Wealthy buyers in the US are tearing down multimillion-dollar homes shortly after purchasing them for hundreds of millions of dollars.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the trend is driven by a shortage of land in prestigious locations, particularly along coastlines.
For ultra-wealthy buyers, the prime factor has become the land’s location rather than the structure standing on it. After the acquired properties are flattened, newer, more modern homes are built on the cleared lots.
Drawing attention to the shift in the luxury real estate market, the report noted:
“The home itself, formerly the primary driver of an expensive real estate purchase, is now almost beside the point. Buyers are competing first and foremost for well-located land, situated on the ocean or a mountaintop.”
The newspaper cited moves by US billionaire William Lauder as an example. Lauder purchased the oceanfront estate of radio host Rush Limbaugh, who died in March 2023, for $155 million and had it completely demolished in July.
Lauder had previously torn down two homes situated on roughly 1.2 hectares of land along the Palm Beach coast. Having initially planned to construct his own residence on the parcel, Lauder subsequently sold the cleared plot for approximately $200 million.
Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser, stated that such transactions are becoming increasingly common as land prices rise.
Amid this momentum, estate agents have also begun marketing luxury homes directly as teardown lots.
Listings use artificial intelligence-generated imagery to showcase how the land would look without the structures on it.
Marketers avoid using the word “demolition” directly, resorting instead to terms such as “adaptive reuse”.
Teardown listings rise across luxury housing market
The trend is not confined to the coast and is spreading to other regions across the US.
Data from property brokerage Redfin reveals that references to demolishing buildings are becoming more frequent in sales listings.
The share of such listings exceeds 15% in the Bunker Hill Village area of Houston, while standing at 6.67% in Pimmit Hills, Virginia.
Dina Goldenteyer, a real estate agent working in Miami, remarked that serial demolitions have become more frequent because buyers no longer appreciate homes older than a decade.
Former retail executives Jamie Dooley and Christine Scott spent $3.7 million in 2020 to demolish a seaside home near Destin, Florida.
Although the couple spent five years building a modern home on the cleared site, they listed the resulting new structure with a demolition condition, citing the fact that no one wanted to buy the property as it stood.
William Paddock, an employee at the environmental consultancy WAP Sustainability, pointed to the environmental damage caused by this construction cycle.
Paddock emphasized that tearing down a home of roughly 1,000 square metres and replacing it with a new building of approximately 2,700 square metres generates a carbon footprint equivalent to the annual emissions of an average 250 American households.
America
US inflation reaches 3.7% as midterm election campaign intensifies
An uptick in September inflation as the US midterm elections approach has pushed the cost-of-living debate back to the centre of the agenda for Democrats seeking to regain control of Congress from Republicans.
Annual inflation stood at 3.7% in September, according to the Consumer Price Index published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, with energy, petrol, and electricity costs rising on a monthly basis.
Food prices remained flat from August to September, recording a 2.5% increase compared with the same period last year.
Democrats are anchoring their election campaigns to pledges of easing the cost of living, blaming the price increases on President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran.
Trump and Republicans, pointing to the numerous left-wing candidates who won primary elections this year, contend that the opposition has become captive to “communists” within the party.
When annual inflation stood at 2.4% in February, the US and Israel launched the Iran war on the final day of that month, and prices continued to climb throughout the conflict.
The recent acceleration has not entirely reversed the retreat from the 40-year peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022; however, the rate has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for over five years.
Fed policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month, citing the battle against stubborn inflation. Officials will convene again next week to consider whether to raise rates or hold them within the 3.75% to 4% target range.
Energy and fuel record sharpest increase since first month of war
In September, energy prices posted their largest monthly jump since March, the first full month of the war with Iran, climbing 20.4% year-on-year. Energy costs had risen 2.1% from July to August, after falling 1.5% from June to July and 5.7% from May to June.
Recent escalations in Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside more frequent strikes by Ukrainian forces against Russian refineries, have strained global crude oil and refined product markets, driving up US petrol and diesel prices.
Petrol prices also recorded their sharpest monthly increase since the first month of the war, climbing 9.1% from August to September, bringing the annual increase to 35.3%.
American Automobile Association (AAA) data shows the average price of regular petrol across the US stands at $4.26 per gallon; while below the level of roughly $4.48 recorded a month ago, it remains more than $1.20 higher than a year earlier. Average gallon prices exceed $6 in California and $5 in both Washington state and Nevada.
Electricity prices rose 0.2% from August to September, offsetting the 0.2% decline between July and August, and were up 4.4% year-on-year.
Heavy power demand from new data centres is feeding through into local household electricity bills. Trump argued that companies must cover the cost of the electricity required by their data centres themselves.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that he was requiring large data centres to generate their own power and feed the surplus back into the local grid, suggesting this could bring about “a major drop” in electricity prices.
Used vehicle market posts monthly rise as food costs stabilise
The cost of food at home fell 0.1% month-on-month in September, while dining out increased 0.2%.
Egg prices dropped to $2.27 a dozen, falling roughly 35% compared with September 2025 and remaining well below the 20-year peak of $6.23 recorded in March 2025.
Ground beef prices rose roughly 2.4% compared with September 2025, but at $6.48 a pound, they remained below the 20-year high of $6.98 reached in June.
Chicken held steady at its year-earlier level of $2.06 per pound last month, having fluctuated between $2.01 and $2.09 since November 2024.
Used car and truck prices fell 1.5% compared with September 2025, but rose 0.7% month-on-month in September following 0.4% increases in both July and August.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that the sector faces severe pressure stemming from a combination of expensive replacement parts and a shortage of skilled labour.
Speaking to The Hill, Long emphasised that every cost pressure across the market is being felt directly at local auto repair shops.
America
Anthropic posts $80.7bn loss ahead of IPO as computing costs soar
Anthropic, developer of the artificial intelligence model Claude, reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first six months of 2026 ending 30 June.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing the company’s draft initial public offering prospectus, this recorded loss nearly doubled the $42 billion loss incurred across the entirety of 2025.
The vast majority of that enormous figure, accounting for $72 billion, stemmed from accounting-driven book-value write-downs.
In contrast, the company saw a sharp surge in revenue, with turnover in the first half of the year climbing to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion in the same period of the prior year.
During this period, Anthropic spent approximately $9 billion on computing power and infrastructure needs, surpassing in just six months the $7.3 billion spent across the whole of 2025.
The company has commitments to pay roughly $450 billion over the next seven to 10 years under cloud service contracts.
Under these obligations, contracts are planned for $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services, and $31 billion with Microsoft.
Anthropic will also spend up to $86 billion by 2033 and 2034, respectively, to lease Nvidia chips through smaller AI-focused cloud providers Nscale and Lambda.
The company could spend an additional $750 billion in the coming years to expand its computing capacity.
Roughly a third of the draft IPO prospectus was dedicated directly to risk factors.
The document highlighted the possibility that models could cause tangible real-world harm, noting that artificial intelligence could exhibit a “self-preservation” tendency and produce responses resembling “blackmail”.
Anthropic warned that the scale of damage caused by an AI-driven “catastrophic event” could render insuring against such risks impossible.
According to market expectations, Anthropic’s IPO could rank among the largest transactions in history, potentially surpassing SpaceX’s record.
Following the market debut, the company’s market valuation is projected to reach up to $2 trillion.
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