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Will Putin march from Belarus to Kiev?

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The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war are changing the whole world permanently. With the energy crisis, the central banks’ radical interest rate decisions, mass protests, and the accelerated arms race, we say goodbye to 2022.

In December, Japan abandoned its post-World War II “pacifist” policy and released a strategy paper that envisaged a record-breaking military budget, already suggesting the military tensions of the coming years. There are numerous references to the Russia-Ukraine war in Japan’s new strategy document.

The war in Ukraine, which has become the front line in the great power competition, is in the front line of the “East” – “West” competition. So, what will be the course of events? Is Russia preparing a new attack on Kyiv through Belarus with fresh troops? Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s visit to Belarus with a heavy delegation of Foreign and Defense Ministers and economic staff, has fueled doubts.

“I don’t think Belarus will be involved,” says retired Lieutenant General, former Head of Turkey’s General Staff Intelligence İsmail Hakkı Pekin, who assessed the concern frequently voiced in the Western media.

“The war will prolong” consensus

One thing is certain about the war that has lasted 10 months in Ukraine: the conflict will be prolonged. “Of course, this is a long-term process,” Russian leader Vladimir Putin said at the beginning of December. “Russia is planning a long war,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on 16 December.

UN Secretary-General Antoino Guterres said, ”We have no illusions that true peace negotiations will be possible in the immediate future.”

Retired Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin, on the other hand, makes the following assessment: “The West wants to carry this conflict into the Caucasus and inner regions of Russia in the future”:

“There are Chechens on both sides fighting on both Russia’s and Ukraine’s side. Circassians aren’t active yet. The West wants to use Chechens, Circassians and Tatars to establish a battalion against Russia and hit it from behind. They’re thinking of taking action in the rear areas of Russia. They are preparing the region for action, including Georgia. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict may also be rekindled. Turkey needs to be very careful.”

What’s the meaning of Putin’s visit to Belarus?

According to official statements by the parties, the economic agenda was widely discussed in the visit. However, in the last month of 2022, we witnessed a series of developments that led to comments that the war would shift to the north of Ukraine through Belarus. By the middle of December, Russian leader Putin would gather the field commanders and the staff team conducting the operation in Ukraine and say, “I want to hear your short- and medium-term suggestions about the operation”.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu also inspected troops involved in the frontline operation in Ukraine on site in December. Shoigu also travelled to Belarus on December 3 and signed a classified protocol on regional security, the contents of which were not made public. The Ministry of Defence of Belarus announced the start of a combat readiness inspection on December 13 and the completion of the inspection on December 19. On the same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko welcomed Putin with bread and flowers at Minsk airport. Shoigu was in Belarus for the second time in a month.

Ukraine’s concern about Belarus

On February 24, what allowed Russian soldiers to quickly enter the gates of Kyiv was that Belarus opened its territory to Russian soldiers. About 50 miles from Kyiv, troops flowed into Ukraine from the Belarusian border, but when the desired success was not achieved in a short time, Russia withdrew from the vast plains to the east of Kyiv and Ukraine and concentrated on the Donbass region. Russia’s rapid entry and the following withdraw formed this phase of the war.

In October, Putin put General Sergey Surovikin, who became famous for his Syrian experience, in charge of the Ukrainian operation. Following the attack on the Kerch Bridge, Russia began to carry out heavy attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, especially electricity, water, and natural gas. By November, General Sergey Surovikin had decided to withdraw the Russian army from the western Kherson region. Russian soldiers were regrouped. The infrastructure of the capital Kyiv was paralyzed by the missile attacks, and at this stage, the scenarios about Belarus began to be voiced. By the 10th month of the operation, Russia had provided a road connection from Donbass to Crimea and turned Azov into an internal Russian sea. In fact, Putin, the leader of Russia, said, “Even Peter I had fought for access to the Azov Sea.” But the question was whether Putin was still targeting Kyiv.

In his interview with the Economist last week, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Russia is preparing to attack with some 200,000 fresh troops. According to Zaluzhnyi, one of the possible attack points of the Russian army is Belarusian territory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected comments that Belarus would join the “special military operation”, saying it was “stupid” and “groundless”.

So, what does all this say about the future of the war?

According to former Head of Turkey’s General Staff Intelligence Ismail Hakkı Pekin, Moscow is trying to distract its enemy and his forces through Belarus. Commenting recently that the military mobilization in Belarus “requires the Western forces to take measures against Belarus”, Pekin states that in this way the pressure of Ukraine on the Russian forces on the southern front can be reduced. As a matter of fact, Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin told the BBC that they would strengthen the Ukrainian defence line on the Belarusian border in case of a new attack.

“There may be a partial truce. It is considered that the war will last for a long time. I do not expect a critical operation until spring,” he said, adding that the parties would remain passive when winter comes. According to Pekin, “Russia is trying to capture some territories during the winter. After taking them, he plans to fortify the defense line and stay there. ”

Pekin does not foresee Belarus’ involvement in the war at this stage, portrayed the current situation by saying, “They expect Russia to accept defeat. Russia will suffer. The West will suffer even more than Russia.”

Russia

Russia relaxes diesel export curbs after talks with Trump

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Russia has announced that it will ship 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the global market under a partial lifting of its diesel export ban, enacted as part of measures concerning the Ukraine crisis and energy markets.

A statement from the Russian government said the decision was implemented in accordance with understandings reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

Under the decision, which came into effect on 10 October, an initial phase of 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel will be supplied to the global market.

“Following the rescinded decision, Russian oil companies, in coordination with the government, will immediately begin signing diesel fuel supply contracts with foreign business partners,” the government statement said.

Assessing the matter, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stressed that the decision would not affect the interests of Russian consumers.

Noting that diesel fuel is produced from Russian crude at domestic refineries, Novak stated that production volumes are sufficient both to meet all domestic market requirements in full and to ship the specified quantities to the global market.

The ban on diesel fuel exports in Russia was initially put into effect on 31 January 2026, covering only non-producing companies.

The government tightened the restrictions on 9 July by expanding them to include direct producers. Previously announced to remain in place until the end of October, the ban was partially relaxed in light of current developments.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a telephone conversation on 9 October. Following the call, US President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the supply of Russian diesel.

Trump said Russia had agreed to send more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel to American and global markets in the initial phase, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes thereafter.

Trump also stated that an additional shipment of 3 million tonnes could follow at a later stage, adding that they expect this agreement to reduce diesel fuel prices rapidly.

Following the conversation, the US Department of the Treasury, on Trump’s instructions, issued a temporary general licence exempting Russian diesel fuel transactions and shipments to the US—previously prohibited under sanctions—until 7 April 2027.

Putin, in a statement after the call, confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply crude oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, noting that this would have a positive impact on the world economy.

Putin also noted that the two leaders discussed prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, the situation surrounding Iran, and bilateral relations, agreeing to maintain contacts through presidential envoys, intelligence agencies, and other institutions.

A statement issued by Novak’s office after the call said Russia was prepared to ship diesel to the US within October.

Novak stated that export volumes could be increased in November and December as refineries emerge from scheduled maintenance.

Novak also conveyed that Moscow views positively Washington’s steps towards stabilising the global energy market and normalising energy trade.

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Drone strike shuts down Yandex data centre in Russia’s Ryazan region

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A drone strike has hit a data centre belonging to Russian internet company Yandex in the town of Sasovo, located in the Ryazan region.

The company announced that a fire triggered by the attack damaged part of the infrastructure and resulted in a complete shutdown of the facility’s operations. No casualties or injuries were reported in the incident.

In a statement, Yandex said competent authorities and relevant teams were working at the scene to remediate the damage.

Owing to the facility being knocked offline, it was noted that some of the company’s online services might temporarily become inaccessible to users.

The company provided no details regarding the financial scale of the damage or when the data centre would be brought back into service.

Shares slide, cloud infrastructure curbs introduced

Following the developments, Yandex shares fell by more than 3.4% as of 10:10 Türkiye time.

A drone threat alert was reportedly communicated to residents of the Ryazan region at 23:48 on the night of 7 October, with the alarm lifted at 02:46 on the morning of 8 October. The facility in Sasovo had commenced operations in 2014.

In an advisory issued via the Yandex Cloud Alerts channel, it was reported that power issues were occurring in the system’s “ru-central1-b” availability zone.

The company stated that efforts to transfer data workloads to other availability zones had been completed and that services in other zones continued to operate normally.

However, it was noted that temporary restrictions could be imposed on the creation of new resources within the cloud infrastructure. According to data from outage-monitoring platform Downdetector, an increase in user complaints concerning Yandex, Yandex Cloud, and the real estate platform CIAN was recorded on the morning of 8 October. Reports were observed to have originated predominantly from Moscow and surrounding regions.

Data centre targeted for first time after logistics warehouses

Whether the attack directly targeted the data centre remains unconfirmed. Nevertheless, as of 8 October, this went on record as the first drone strike directed at data centres in Russia.

Beginning in the summer months of 2026, warehouses belonging to Russia’s leading e-commerce platforms had faced drone attacks.

Fires at several warehouses owned by the company Wildberries caused hundreds of billions of roubles in losses for sellers, after which logistics centres belonging to the company Ozon were also targeted.

Both companies amended their contractual terms, shifting liability for damages arising from attacks onto sellers.

Yandex facilities had previously experienced a widespread outage on 30 March 2025 due to a transformer failure, which temporarily disabled services including Yandex Cloud, Yandex Music, and Yandex Lavka.

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US and Russian figures discuss American stake in Nord Stream lines

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Senior officials from Russia and the US have reportedly discussed involving an American investor in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.

According to a report by the Reuters news agency based on five sources, those taking part in contacts included Kirill Dmitriyev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign states, and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of the US leader.

Two sources providing information on the scope of the discussions said that while it remains unclear how detailed the consideration of the Nord Stream topic was, the matter nevertheless remains on the agenda.

Kushner reportedly views business-oriented cooperation as an instrument in initiatives aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

A potential agreement could reportedly offer US investors an opportunity to profit from energy shipments to Europe once the war ends.

White House states no recent contacts have taken place

A White House official told Reuters that no negotiations regarding Nord Stream have been conducted recently.

The official emphasised that any agreement with Russia would require approval from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Department of the Treasury, adding that such steps must yield benefits for US taxpayers and companies.

Another US official described reaching an understanding in the medium term as unlikely due to existing obstacles.

The natural gas pipelines are subject to US and European Union sanctions. A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy stated that the approval of the German federal government is mandatory for the pipelines to be brought back into service, adding that the Berlin administration does not support such a step.

The spokesperson also recalled that Germany has secured alternative supplies to Russian gas.

The ownership structure of Nord Stream also features among the issues complicating the ground for negotiations.

In the consortium operating the project, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 51% stake, while the combined share of two German partners stands at 31%.

The remaining shares are held by France- and Netherlands-based companies.

A source speaking to the agency stated that the German partners wish to retain their stakes in order to preserve their influence in the project should Gazprom’s shares be sold.

What had American investor Lynch proposed?

The concept of involving a US financier in the Nord Stream projects had also surfaced in 2024.

American investor Stephen Lynch, founder of Monte Valle Partners, who conducted commercial activities in Russia for 20 years, had applied to the US administration for a licence allowing him to bid if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were put up for auction.

Lynch described this potential move as an opportunity to keep Europe’s energy supply under control until the fossil-fuel era ends, as well as leverage against Russia in peace negotiations.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party described the possibility of transferring the pipeline to Lynch as an illustration of the German government’s irrational policy.

Separately, The New York Times (NYT) reported earlier this month that Ukraine-related contacts between Russia and the US were expanding to include a multi-billion-dollar oil deal covering Lukoil’s foreign assets.

The assets in question included Lukoil’s refineries in Eastern Europe as well as filling stations in the US.

NYT sources reported that discussions in this framework were also addressed during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Steven Witkoff, and Kushner.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines took place in September 2022, with three of the four lines damaged by explosions.

One string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which had not yet been commissioned at the time, remained intact.

The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) classified the incident as an act of international terrorism, while Putin claimed that “Anglo-Saxons” were behind the attack.

In investigations into the incident, judicial proceedings were pursued against several Ukrainian citizens, including professional diver Vladimir Juravlyov, suspected of planting explosives off the island of Bornholm, and Sergey Kuznetsov, who allegedly skippered the yacht Andromeda.

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