Russia
Will Putin march from Belarus to Kiev?
The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war are changing the whole world permanently. With the energy crisis, the central banks’ radical interest rate decisions, mass protests, and the accelerated arms race, we say goodbye to 2022.
In December, Japan abandoned its post-World War II “pacifist” policy and released a strategy paper that envisaged a record-breaking military budget, already suggesting the military tensions of the coming years. There are numerous references to the Russia-Ukraine war in Japan’s new strategy document.
The war in Ukraine, which has become the front line in the great power competition, is in the front line of the “East” – “West” competition. So, what will be the course of events? Is Russia preparing a new attack on Kyiv through Belarus with fresh troops? Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s visit to Belarus with a heavy delegation of Foreign and Defense Ministers and economic staff, has fueled doubts.
“I don’t think Belarus will be involved,” says retired Lieutenant General, former Head of Turkey’s General Staff Intelligence İsmail Hakkı Pekin, who assessed the concern frequently voiced in the Western media.
“The war will prolong” consensus
One thing is certain about the war that has lasted 10 months in Ukraine: the conflict will be prolonged. “Of course, this is a long-term process,” Russian leader Vladimir Putin said at the beginning of December. “Russia is planning a long war,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on 16 December.
UN Secretary-General Antoino Guterres said, ”We have no illusions that true peace negotiations will be possible in the immediate future.”
Retired Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin, on the other hand, makes the following assessment: “The West wants to carry this conflict into the Caucasus and inner regions of Russia in the future”:
“There are Chechens on both sides fighting on both Russia’s and Ukraine’s side. Circassians aren’t active yet. The West wants to use Chechens, Circassians and Tatars to establish a battalion against Russia and hit it from behind. They’re thinking of taking action in the rear areas of Russia. They are preparing the region for action, including Georgia. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict may also be rekindled. Turkey needs to be very careful.”
What’s the meaning of Putin’s visit to Belarus?
According to official statements by the parties, the economic agenda was widely discussed in the visit. However, in the last month of 2022, we witnessed a series of developments that led to comments that the war would shift to the north of Ukraine through Belarus. By the middle of December, Russian leader Putin would gather the field commanders and the staff team conducting the operation in Ukraine and say, “I want to hear your short- and medium-term suggestions about the operation”.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu also inspected troops involved in the frontline operation in Ukraine on site in December. Shoigu also travelled to Belarus on December 3 and signed a classified protocol on regional security, the contents of which were not made public. The Ministry of Defence of Belarus announced the start of a combat readiness inspection on December 13 and the completion of the inspection on December 19. On the same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko welcomed Putin with bread and flowers at Minsk airport. Shoigu was in Belarus for the second time in a month.
Ukraine’s concern about Belarus
On February 24, what allowed Russian soldiers to quickly enter the gates of Kyiv was that Belarus opened its territory to Russian soldiers. About 50 miles from Kyiv, troops flowed into Ukraine from the Belarusian border, but when the desired success was not achieved in a short time, Russia withdrew from the vast plains to the east of Kyiv and Ukraine and concentrated on the Donbass region. Russia’s rapid entry and the following withdraw formed this phase of the war.
In October, Putin put General Sergey Surovikin, who became famous for his Syrian experience, in charge of the Ukrainian operation. Following the attack on the Kerch Bridge, Russia began to carry out heavy attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, especially electricity, water, and natural gas. By November, General Sergey Surovikin had decided to withdraw the Russian army from the western Kherson region. Russian soldiers were regrouped. The infrastructure of the capital Kyiv was paralyzed by the missile attacks, and at this stage, the scenarios about Belarus began to be voiced. By the 10th month of the operation, Russia had provided a road connection from Donbass to Crimea and turned Azov into an internal Russian sea. In fact, Putin, the leader of Russia, said, “Even Peter I had fought for access to the Azov Sea.” But the question was whether Putin was still targeting Kyiv.
In his interview with the Economist last week, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Russia is preparing to attack with some 200,000 fresh troops. According to Zaluzhnyi, one of the possible attack points of the Russian army is Belarusian territory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected comments that Belarus would join the “special military operation”, saying it was “stupid” and “groundless”.
So, what does all this say about the future of the war?
According to former Head of Turkey’s General Staff Intelligence Ismail Hakkı Pekin, Moscow is trying to distract its enemy and his forces through Belarus. Commenting recently that the military mobilization in Belarus “requires the Western forces to take measures against Belarus”, Pekin states that in this way the pressure of Ukraine on the Russian forces on the southern front can be reduced. As a matter of fact, Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin told the BBC that they would strengthen the Ukrainian defence line on the Belarusian border in case of a new attack.
“There may be a partial truce. It is considered that the war will last for a long time. I do not expect a critical operation until spring,” he said, adding that the parties would remain passive when winter comes. According to Pekin, “Russia is trying to capture some territories during the winter. After taking them, he plans to fortify the defense line and stay there. ”
Pekin does not foresee Belarus’ involvement in the war at this stage, portrayed the current situation by saying, “They expect Russia to accept defeat. Russia will suffer. The West will suffer even more than Russia.”
Russia
Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens
Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.
According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.
Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.
In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.
With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.
The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.
The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.
On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”
According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.
The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.
It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.
Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.
Russia
Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit
Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.
After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.
The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.
One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.
The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.
State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.
Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.
Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.
According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.
Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.
“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.
Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.
However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.
Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.
According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.
Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.
Russia
Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.
The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.
During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.
Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.
Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.
Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.
In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.
According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.
These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.
The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.
In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.
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