Diplomacy
Leaked Trump peace plan offers Ukraine security guarantees for territorial concessions
Ukrainian Member of Parliament Oleksiy Honcharenko has publicly shared a 28-point peace plan reportedly prepared by US President Donald Trump and his team.
The leaked document proposes that Ukraine make significant concessions regarding its territorial integrity and NATO membership in exchange for comprehensive security guarantees from the US and its allies.
According to information reported by the website Axios, the plan was presented to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by US Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll.
Ukraine gives up its NATO goal
The document published by Honcharenko includes radical changes to Ukraine’s security and political status.
According to the plan, while Ukraine’s sovereignty will be affirmed, the country’s non-aligned status and its commitment not to join NATO will be enshrined in the Constitution.
The US will provide security guarantees to Ukraine under certain conditions, but these guarantees stipulate that NATO forces will not be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
The alliance’s fighter jets are envisioned to be stationed in Poland.
Additionally, a limit will be placed on the number of personnel in the Ukrainian army, and the country’s non-nuclear status will be maintained.
The most controversial articles of the plan involve regulations related to territorial issues. According to the document, the Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions will be recognized as “de facto” parts of Russia.
The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will receive a “frozen status” along the current line of contact.
While Trump’s proposal requires that the parties do not change borders by force, it also includes the creation of a demilitarized buffer zone that will be under Russia’s de facto control.
A security umbrella equivalent to NATO’s Article 5
The US-based website Axios published a report that confirms and elaborates on the points shared by Honcharenko.
According to the report, the Washington administration is offering Kyiv a 10-year security guarantee similar in nature to NATO’s Article 5, which governs collective defense.
According to the draft framework agreement, any future “comprehensive, deliberate, and sustained armed attack” by Russia against Ukraine will be considered a threat to the peace and security of the transatlantic community.
In such a case, the US and its European allies will provide the necessary response, including the use of military force. The signatories to the agreement include Ukraine, Russia, the US, the European Union, and NATO.
The peace plan contains detailed provisions on how the economic costs of the war will be covered.
A total of $100 billion of Russia’s frozen assets will be used for the investment package created for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
However, 50% of the profits generated from these assets will be transferred to the US. European countries are planned to provide an additional €100 billion in resources and establish a Ukraine Development Fund.
Regarding Russia’s position in the international system, the plan proposes the gradual lifting of sanctions, the country’s return to the G8 group, and long-term economic cooperation with the US.
The establishment of a joint working group on security between the US and Russia, and a legal commitment by Russia to a non-aggression policy are also among the articles.
Elections after 100 days
Articles related to domestic politics stipulate that elections will be held in Ukraine 100 days after the agreement is signed. Furthermore, a full and comprehensive general amnesty will be declared for all parties involved in the conflict.
Under the heading of energy security, the plan envisions the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant resuming operations under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with the electricity produced being shared 50% between Russia and Ukraine.
The US will also support the repair of Ukraine’s natural gas infrastructure.
The supervision of the peace process will be carried out by a “Peace Council” led by Donald Trump.
The agreement includes an immediate ceasefire upon signing and the imposition of sanctions in case of violations. On humanitarian issues, the goal is to conduct a prisoner exchange based on the “all for all” principle and to reunite families.
White House officials who spoke to Axios acknowledged that the plan demands “painful concessions” from Ukraine but argued that the proposed security guarantees represent a “major victory” for Zelenskyy.
It was stated that Zelenskyy met with Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll and a Pentagon delegation in Kyiv on November 20 and is ready to work on the draft.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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