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The U.S. 2025 ‘National Security Strategy’ Report and the Disintegration Facing the U.S.–Europe Alliance

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The Twilight of Transatlantic Relations: The U.S. 2025 Version of the ‘National Security Strategy’ Report and the Disintegration Facing the U.S.–Europe Alliance

Wang Wanying and Ma Xiaolin

The 2025 version of the “National Security Strategy” report released by the Trump administration of the United States on December 4 was like a huge stone thrown into a pool of water, stirring up stormy waves. This document, which proclaims America’s future new security policy, not only removes China and Russia from the position of primary threats, but also tolls the imminent centennial death knell for the transatlantic alliance that has lasted for a hundred years. Not only that, Trump also harshly castigated and humiliated America’s European allies, fearing that Europe might misread this report announcing the end of the U.S.–Europe marriage.

On December 9, Trump said in an interview with the U.S. outlet Politico that “most European countries are becoming rotten.” He accused Europe’s immigration policies of being a “disaster,” saying that “they want political correctness, and that makes them weak” … and that some European leaders are “utter fools.”

The Daily Telegraph, published on the 10th, even revealed that a leaked version of the 2025 “National Security Strategy” report shows that the Trump administration intends to have Hungary and Italy leave the European Union. German Chancellor Merz, however, was not surprised. When commenting on this official U.S. document on the 9th, he said that America’s national security strategy confirmed his judgment: “Europe, and Germany as well, must be more independent from the United States in terms of security policy.” He emphasized that Europeans must be prepared for the United States no longer being an alliance partner …

Looking at the “National Security Strategy” (NSS) reports released by three U.S. administrations from 2017 to 2025, the U.S.–Europe transatlantic relationship has undergone a dramatic shock from “transactional partners” to a “values alliance,” ultimately moving toward “strategic divergence” and a “civilizational rupture.” The 2025 version of the “National Security Strategy” report marks that the transatlantic alliance system after World War II is facing substantive disintegration, and U.S.–Europe relations have officially entered a “post-ally era.”

This trajectory of evolution is not a simple policy swing, but rather a structural reckoning by the United States of its global strategy against the backdrop of soaring costs of maintaining hegemony and intensifying domestic political polarization. From the initial appearance of cracks in 2017 to the civilizational rupture in 2025, every step points to the “irreversibility of divergence,” with its roots deeply embedded in the profound misalignment of power, interests, and values between the U.S. and Europe.

The Overall Picture of the Evolution of Transatlantic Relations

The U.S. “National Security Strategy” is not only a declaration of foreign policy, but also a reflection of its domestic political ecology and global strategic anxiety. From 2017 to 2025, transatlantic relations experienced a shift from a “boiling frog in warm water” style of transactionalization, to a brief “last gasp” during the Biden period, and finally to a “shock therapy”–style rupture in 2025.

This evolution reveals a cruel strategic reality: the traditional Western alliance system can no longer adapt to a multipolar world order and the internal political ecology of the United States. The U.S.–Europe rupture in 2025 is not an accidental “black swan” event, but the inevitable result of three intertwined logics—U.S. hegemonic contraction, U.S.–Europe cognitive misalignment, and the deconstruction of values. A rupture in capabilities forces the United States into strategic retrenchment; a rupture in threat perception leads the U.S. and Europe to move in opposite directions regarding their geopolitical focal points; and a rupture in values pushes former allies to the edge of a “clash of civilizations.” This process demonstrates that the estrangement of transatlantic relations is not a temporary tactical adjustment, but the inevitable end of a historical cycle.

  • The Prelude to Divergence: Accumulation of Contradictions and Failure of Repair (2017–2024)

Before the final rupture in 2025, U.S.–Europe relations went through policy attempts by two administrations that were starkly different yet causally linked. Various signs in this stage indicate that the foundation of the alliance had long been eroded by “transactionalism,” and subsequent repair efforts failed to address the root cause.

1.  The Initiation of Transactionalism: The First Appearance of Cracks (2017–2020)

The “National Security Strategy” report released in December 2017 was the starting point of divergence. It broke the post–Cold War U.S. consensus on the “liberal international order” and introduced naked realism into the sacred realm of alliance relations.

First, it established the “debt-based” positioning of allies. The Trump 1.0 administration regarded allies as projects to be evaluated on a balance sheet. This so-called “principled realism” was in fact “transactionalism without moral distinction.” The report harshly criticized NATO allies for failing to meet the target of 2% of GDP in defense spending. At the time, this was interpreted in Europe as a negotiating tactic, but later proved to be a signal that the U.S. strategic community’s tolerance for NATO “free-riding” had dropped to zero.

Second, it pioneered economic nationalism. The 2017 version of the “National Security Strategy” defined economic prosperity as a core pillar of national security and, for the first time, explicitly regarded trade deficits as a national security threat. This logic of “trade as war” made it difficult for the U.S. and Europe to form a united front in policy toward China. During this period, Europe was forced to adopt a “hedging” strategy, attempting to maintain a balance between China and the United States.

2. The Fragile “Last Gasp”: Failure of Repair (2021–2024)

After the Biden administration took office, it attempted to reverse its predecessor’s course through the 2022 version of the “National Security Strategy,” once again establishing Europe as a core partner in defending the “rules-based order.” However, the limitations exposed during the implementation of this report highlighted the structural irreversibility of the U.S. strategic retrenchment trend.

First, the hollowing out of alliance mechanisms. Although the Biden administration established the “U.S.–EU Trade and Technology Council” (TTC) in an attempt to coordinate technology policy toward China, as think tanks such as the Atlantic Council have pointed out, the U.S. side was never willing to establish a “democratic technology alliance” with treaty-binding force. The TTC ultimately remained only at the level of loose policy dialogue.

Second, the covert continuation of “America First.” The massive subsidies and local content requirements in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) triggered strong warnings from Macron about a “split within the Western camp,” and Europe’s industrial circles even described it as “the murder of European industry.” This meant that even during the “ally” period, the United States was unwilling to make concessions to Europe on core economic interests. This kind of “false healing” failed to withstand the pressure of the resurgence of isolationism within the United States, laying the groundwork for the complete rupture in 2025.

  • The Outbreak and Inevitability of the 2025 Divergence

The 2025 version of the “National Security Strategy” report released by the Trump 2.0 administration is not only a sudden policy shift, but also a “final reckoning” of the contradictions accumulated in the earlier period. It marks the elevation of U.S.–Europe relations from tactical divergences entangled in interests to a structural rupture at the level of geopolitics and civilizational cognition.

1. The Explicit Outbreak of Divergence: Deep Ruptures Across Four Dimensions

Strategic “Neglect and Retrenchment”:
Many media outlets have keenly noted that in this report of more than 30 pages, only two and a half pages are devoted to Europe. Leonardo Hutter, a researcher at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in the United States, stated bluntly that this means the United States no longer regards Europe as part of its core interests: “Europe has become increasingly irrelevant to the United States.” The report clearly proposes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, aiming to eliminate the influence of external forces in Latin America, marking a substantive retreat by the United States from “globalism” to “hemispherism.” The United States announced a substantial reduction in its permanent military presence in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The report states that “indiscriminate global intervention has hollowed out U.S. power,” and that the United States must refuse to continue acting as the “world’s police.”

Security “Undermining at the Root”:
On the NATO issue, the 2025 report adopts a strategy of “undermining at the root,” completely changing the nature of the alliance. The report not only requires Europe to share costs, but also demands that Europe take over defense responsibilities. It reiterates the startling consensus reached at the June 2025 Hague Summit: NATO member states committed to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Even though this target adopts a dual-track structure of “3.5% core defense + 1.5% civil defense infrastructure,” easing short-term fiscal pressure, it still maintains a high-pressure posture requiring allies to fully pay for their own security. The strategic intent behind setting such a high threshold is not truly to expect Europe to meet it, but to create a state in which allies are in “permanent default.” This provides the United States with a “legitimate” pretext, based on the principle of “transactional realism,” to adjust, scale back, or even refuse to implement Article Five at any time, effectively making NATO’s collective defense commitment conditional and hollow.

In addition, the report announces the suspension of all military assistance to Ukraine and unilaterally proposes a peace plan aimed at “rebuilding strategic stability with Russia.” This plan includes limiting Ukraine’s military capabilities and prohibiting its accession to NATO, and is widely regarded as sacrificing Ukraine’s sovereignty, effectively relegating Europe’s security agenda to a secondary position. From Vice President Vance’s blunt criticism of Europe at the Munich Security Conference at the beginning of the year, to the United States’ “over-the-head diplomacy” toward Europe on the Ukraine issue, all indicate that the United States no longer regards Europe as an equal partner requiring consultation, but rather as a strategic chess piece to be disposed of at will.

Economic “Designation as an Adversary”:
In the economic and trade domain, the 2025 report regards the European Union as a major competitor, and in some formulations even implies that it is more “exploitative” than geopolitical rivals. The report places “economic security” in an absolute priority position and plans to impose punitive “reciprocal tariffs” on EU goods in response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and digital services tax. The report even uses the highly confrontational term “Liberation Day tariffs,” implying that the United States needs to be “liberated” from Europe’s trade exploitation. In the high-tech field, the United States leverages its dominance in AI and quantum computing, using extraterritorial jurisdiction and standards monopolization to force European companies to become dependent on the United States within technological ecosystems. This logic of “you must rely on me, but I will exploit you” renders the TTC mechanism nominal in existence only, transforming it into a tool for U.S. pressure.

Ideological “Civilizational Defense”:
The most shocking and subversive part of the 2025 report is its abandonment of America’s customary “export of democracy,” turning instead to an isolationist “civilizational defense,” and directly launching attacks on Europe’s mainstream political values. The report puts forward the theory of “civilizational erosion,” claiming that due to open immigration policies, multiculturalism, and the “suppression” of freedom of speech (referring to EU regulation of social media), Europe faces the risks of “civilizational extinction” and “replacement.” This marks a rupture between official U.S. ideology and Europe’s liberal mainstream.

Furthermore, the report openly proposes that the United States will support “patriotic” parties within Europe (namely right-wing populist forces) to “correct Europe’s current trajectory” and resist the erosion of the foundations of Western civilization by multiculturalism. This means that the United States has shifted from being a supporter of European integration to an instigator of European fragmentation. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt sharply pointed out that this effectively positions the United States as “the right wing of Europe’s far right.” Liana Fix, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that this way of viewing U.S.–Europe relations from a “civilizational” perspective marks “the end of transatlantic alliance relations based on liberal values.”

2. Proof of the Inevitability of Divergence: Three Structural Root Causes

From “transaction” in 2017, to “alliance” in 2022, and then to “divergence” in 2025, the evolution of the positioning of transatlantic relations in U.S. national security strategy reveals a cruel strategic reality: the traditional Western alliance system can no longer adapt to a multipolar world order and the internal political ecology of the United States. This evolution is not accidental, but the result of the combined effects of three major structural factors:

First is the rupture of power. The United States is no longer able to simultaneously maintain a global hegemonic system and the living standards of its domestic population, and must carry out strategic retrenchment. The idea of “denial strategy” has become mainstream—concentrating resources on the Indo-Pacific and abandoning Europe.

Second is the rupture of threat perception. The United States views China as an existential threat and Europe as a tool or even a burden; Europe views Russia as an existential threat and China as a systemic rival but also a necessary partner for cooperation. This misalignment of geopolitical interests is structural and cannot be bridged by diplomatic rhetoric.

Third is the rupture of values. With the institutionalization of right-wing populism in the United States, the U.S. and Europe have gradually drifted apart on core values such as democracy, human rights, climate change, and multilateralism. “Shared values” have become an empty shell, replaced by the projection of the theory of “civilizational conflict” within the Western world itself.

  • Europe’s Passive Adaptation to the “Inevitable Divergence”

If German Chancellor Merkel’s speech in 2017 was a “warning” of the U.S.–Europe breakup, then the 2025 version of the U.S. “National Security Strategy” report is the “verdict.” Europe has no choice but to accept the reality that the United States has already “left.” Confronted with the “shock” brought by the 2025 report, Europe’s strategic community has gone through a process from shock and denial to forced action. The extremization of U.S. policy is pushing Europe to become a truly independent geopolitical pole.

1. Promoting the Hardening of Europe’s Political Stance

In a speech on December 8, European Council President Costa sent a clear signal. He stated that it is unacceptable for the United States to issue threats of interference in Europe’s internal politics, emphasizing that “allies do not threaten to interfere in the internal political lives of other allies.” Costa frankly admitted that differences in worldview between the United States and Europe are widening, that the United States no longer believes in multilateralism, and that Europe must “achieve sovereign autonomy” in response to the new U.S. strategy. Former President of the European Commission Prodi also called for the formulation of policies “to make its stance firmer,” even though the EU has not yet formed a systematic response. However, Europe’s voices are not unified. U.S. support for European right-wing forces has produced immediate effects, exacerbating fragmentation within Europe. Right-wing governments in countries such as Hungary and Italy have welcomed parts of the 2025 report, viewing them as endorsements of their own anti-immigration and anti–EU centralization policies. This has led to divisions within the EU on policies toward the United States and Russia, making it difficult to form a unified voice to counter U.S. pressure.

2. Accelerating the Process of “Strategic Autonomy” and Tactical Hedging

The introduction of the 2025 version of the “National Security Strategy” report and a series of moves by the Trump administration have made Europe’s desire to accelerate “strategic autonomy” even stronger. On the one hand, defense autonomy is speeding up. Faced with the threat of U.S. troop withdrawals, countries such as Germany and Poland have been forced to substantially increase defense budgets, trying to fill the conventional deterrence vacuum left by the United States; Germany plans to establish a new special defense fund, with the “turning point of the times” shifting from slogan to implementation, and is discussing with France the Europeanization of the nuclear umbrella; the United Kingdom has also clearly put forward “NATO first, but not NATO only,” and is seeking to establish a new strategic partnership with the European Union; as the only two nuclear powers in Europe, the United Kingdom and France have seen an unprecedented increase in urgency regarding defense cooperation, and the two countries are accelerating the advancement of an upgraded version of the “Lancaster House Treaties.” In short, Europe is enhancing its “autonomous capacity to act without the United States” by increasing defense capabilities and investing in strategic industries. On the other hand, the “red line” defense in technology and trade. Since the beginning of this year, the European Union has carried out a series of enforcement actions against U.S. technology companies based on the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. Analysts believe this is the EU’s direct response to U.S. tariff intervention, intended to “draw red lines” vis-à-vis the United States in the field of digital sovereignty. Europe is learning to play its hand with the United States more cleverly by gathering more bargaining chips.

*Wang Wanying – Assistant Research Fellow, Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation Studies, Ningbo University; Lecturer, School of Foreign Languages, Ningbo University

*Ma Xiaolin – Specially Appointed Research Fellow, Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation Studies, Ningbo University; Bao Yugang Chair Professor; Professor, Zhejiang International Studies University; Dean, Institute of Mediterranean Studies

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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