Connect with us

Opinion

Will Trump win his round in Venezuela?

Published

on

Ahmed Moustafa, Director and Founder of Asia Center for Studies & Translation Egypt

Intro

Predicting the outcome of a complex geopolitical situation is difficult, but the current “round” in Venezuela—as of late 2025—is characterized by a significant escalation in U.S. pressure. The administration has recently launched a “Maximum Pressure 2.0” campaign, which is currently at a fever pitch:

Naval Blockade: On December 16, 2025, President Trump announced a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela. He described Venezuela as “completely surrounded” by a massive U.S. naval armada.

Military Engagement: The U.S. has conducted more than 20 strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific that it alleges are linked to drug trafficking. These actions have resulted in dozens of casualties and sparked intense international debate over the legality of these “intercepts.”

Asset Reclamation: Trump has explicitly demanded that Venezuela return oil and land assets “stolen” from U.S. companies (referring to the nationalization of the oil industry under Hugo Chávez).

Terrorist Designation: The administration has designated the Maduro government as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO) and labeled specific gangs like Tren de Aragua as narco-terrorist threats.

Strengths for the U.S.

Economic Leverage: A successful blockade could cripple the Maduro government’s primary source of revenue (oil), potentially leading to internal collapse.

Domestic Support: Trump’s base largely supports a “hard-line” approach to curb migration and drug flows.

Military Superiority: The presence of a massive armada makes it physically difficult for Venezuela to export oil without U.S. interference.

However, challenges for the U.S.

Geopolitical Support: Russia and China remain allies of Maduro. Russia recently pledged continued support, and the UN has expressed concern over “international piracy.”

Regional Stability: Leaders like Brazil’s Lula and Mexico’s Sheinbaum are calling for mediation, fearing a “Vietnam-style” quagmire in South America.

Refugee Crisis: Further destabilizing the Venezuelan economy may actually increase the flow of migrants to the U.S. border, contradicting other administration goals.

To delve deeper into this analytical report, we will analyze several factors as follows:-

Western democracy is flawed and differentiates between bad and worse

A persuasive critique of contemporary Western democracy posits that its foundational principle has been fundamentally corrupted, devolving into a system where citizens are often constrained to selecting the lesser of two perceived evils. This degeneration stems from an over-reliance on the ballot box as the sole arbiter of democratic legitimacy, a mechanism that prioritizes the mere act of voting over the critical evaluation of candidate competence, integrity, and policy expertise. The selection process itself is profoundly compromised, as party nominations are frequently determined not by meritocratic assessment but by the insidious influences of political factionalism, religious dogma, and ethnic tribalism. This creates a candidate pool often devoid of the most qualified individuals, instead favoring those who best navigate the intricate webs of internal party politics and identity-based mobilization.

This systemic failure is exacerbated by the significant and often clandestine interference of powerful financial lobbies and oligarchic interests. These entities exploit a permissive regulatory environment to exert undue influence on the political process, shaping legislation and policy to serve narrow, private ends rather than the public good. The resultant “revolving door” phenomenon—where individuals seamlessly transition between roles as industry regulators and lobbyists for the sectors they once oversaw—has created a regulatory capture that paralyzes Western parliaments and core institutions. This symbiosis between capital and power ensures that economic and governance structures are engineered for rent-seeking and the preservation of entrenched privilege, effectively nullifying the democratic will and creating a governance deficit.

Consequently, these structurally embedded vulnerabilities have rendered Western democracies ill-equipped to address existential challenges, most notably the protracted economic malaise that commenced with the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The inadequate policy responses, often prioritizing bank bailouts and austerity over Main Street recovery, coupled with the massive diversion of public funds into perpetual military engagements (extending far beyond the oft-cited Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns), have exacerbated inequality and eroded public trust. The manifest inability of the system to foster renewal is perhaps most symbolically captured in the advanced age and perceived limitations of its standard-bearers, as evidenced by the 2016 and 2024 U.S. presidential contests (Trump, Biden and then Trump one more time). This gerontocratic entrenchment is not merely a demographic curiosity but a potent symptom of a deeper institutional stagnation, where the pathways for genuine renewal and competent leadership are effectively blocked by the very mechanisms that define the modern democratic process.

Trump represents the true image of Zionist oligarchic pragmatism in the West because he is part of it

Donald Trump’s presidency represents a profound paradox and a critical case study in the erosion of democratic norms, characterized by an overt alignment with expansionist Zionist policies and a transactional approach to governance that leveraged the power of a media and technology oligarchy. His administration cultivated a symbiotic relationship with figures like Elon Musk, securing vital support by initially projecting a facade of gender-neutral morality that ultimately alienated religious and minority groups. This coalition enabled a domestic and foreign policy agenda that was both ideologically driven and ruthlessly pragmatic. Nowhere was this more evident than in the Middle East, where his administration, despite electoral support from some Muslim and Arab-American communities, acted as a primary enabler of the Netanyahu government. His policies, including the move of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and the brokering of the Abraham Accords that sidelined Palestinian aspirations, effectively greenlit the subsequent escalation of violence and the devastating bloodbath in Gaza, betraying those who sought a just resolution to the enduring conflict.

On the global stage, Trump’s doctrine was defined by an abrasive unilateralism and a blatant disregard for international law, seeking to advance U.S. economic interests through coercive measures rather than diplomacy. He antagonized longstanding allies with punitive tariffs, manipulated volatile immigration issues critical to the U.S. labor market, and openly pursued the annexationist fantasy of acquiring territories like Greenland. This revisionist approach culminated in a direct assault on Venezuelan sovereignty, where his administration attempted an illegitimate coup against the elected government of Nicolás Maduro. This maneuver was a transparent effort to install a puppet regime and plunder the world’s largest proven oil reserves, a strategic pivot after failed provocations against Iran and Russia, motivated by a desire to control energy prices and avert domestic economic fallout from soaring gasoline costs, which threatened to exceed $7 per gallon.

The economic foundation upon which these aggressive policies were built was, however, inherently unstable and masked significant fiscal peril. Behind a media-obscured facade of growth, the administration presided over an alarming acceleration of the national debt, which according to Bank of America, grew at a rate of one trillion dollars every 100 days, pushing the total internal debt beyond $40 trillion. This precariousness was exacerbated by self-destructive immigration policies, including the imposition of exorbitant visa fees reaching $150,000 on companies employing foreign workers. This short-sighted action catalyzed a flight of both American and foreign businessmen and skilled labor, further straining an economy profoundly dependent on their contribution. Thus, Trump’s legacy is not merely one of ideological thuggery but of a calculated destabilization of both international order and domestic economic security for the benefit of a narrow oligarchic and ideological elite.

Where did Trump get his enormous wealth and the role of shadow trading in it?

While Donald Trump’s wealth is frequently attributed to his real estate empire and branding ventures, a more critical analysis suggests the origins may be far more complex and ethically fraught. Allegations that have surfaced from various legal proceedings and investigative reports, including those connected to the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, posit that a portion of this capital could be linked to illicit networks. These networks purportedly involved prostitution rings and the facilitation of access to underage girls for global elites, activities which, if substantiated, would represent a significant and clandestine revenue stream operating parallel to his legitimate businesses. This perspective challenges the canonical narrative of self-made success, proposing instead that his fortune may be partially built upon the exploitation inherent in human trafficking.

Further scrutiny extends to the international drug trade, a shadow economy estimated by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime to generate annual global revenues ranging from $400 to $650 billion. The assertion that Venezuela is a primary source of U.S. narcotics is a widely debunked political claim not supported by DEA intelligence, which consistently identifies Mexican cartels as the dominant force. However, the scale of this illicit market invites examination of any individual with the logistical capacity and connections to engage in it. Unverified claims from certain sources have attempted to implicate Trump in such activities, suggesting potential complicity or personal involvement. These assertions, while serious, remain within the realm of allegation rather than established legal fact, yet they persist as a component of the critical discourse questioning the integrity of his wealth accumulation.

The personal history of his wife, Melania Trump, a Slovenian immigrant and former model whose work included nude photography, is often cited within this analytical framework not as a condemnation of her profession, but as potential circumstantial evidence of his immersion in a milieu where human commodification is normalized. When synthesized, these threads—the association with figures like Epstein, the persistent allegations of involvement in drug and sex trafficking, and the operation within industries blurring the lines between legal and illegal—form a persuasive argument for many researchers. This argument posits that a comprehensive understanding of Trump’s wealth must acknowledge the potential confluence of legitimate enterprise and illicit, shadow economies that thrive on exploitation.

How can Donald Trump and America be confronted and punished in practical, new, and unconventional ways?

Donald Trump’s unilateral imposition of an air and sea embargo on Venezuela—without congressional approval—constitutes a clear violation of both international law and the U.S. Constitution. The blockade, which has exacerbated Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis, contravenes the UN Charter’s prohibition on coercive economic measures that harm civilian populations (Article 2(4)). Legally, Trump’s circumvention of Congress also violates the War Powers Resolution and the separation of powers doctrine. Given the U.S.’s historical impunity for such actions, traditional judicial mechanisms (e.g., the ICC, where the U.S. is not a member) are unlikely to hold him accountable. Thus, unconventional strategies must be explored, such as multilateral economic sanctions against Trump and his administration by Global South nations, targeted asset foreclosures, and diplomatic isolation under the principle of universal jurisdiction for crimes against humanity.

The Global South, led by geopolitical heavyweights China and Russia, holds significant leverage to impose consequences. Both nations have condemned U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, with China providing over $60 billion in investments and Russia deploying military advisers. To punish Trump’s administration, they could escalate financial retribution—such as freezing U.S. officials’ offshore assets (an estimated $30 billion in Russian and Chinese-linked holdings) or restricting access to critical mineral supply chains. Additionally, they might pursue resolutions in the UN General Assembly to delegitimize U.S. sanctions, building on prior votes where 193 nations condemned unilateral coercive measures. However, their willingness depends on balancing anti-imperialist rhetoric against economic pragmatism, particularly China’s reliance on U.S. markets.

Beyond diplomatic condemnation, legal avenues exist under international frameworks. The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), representing 120 states, could initiate a collective lawsuit at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for violating the UN Charter’s sovereignty principles. Precedents exist: Nicaragua successfully sued the U.S. in 1986 over embargo-related damages. Economically, Global South nations might adopt secondary sanctions against U.S. firms enforcing the blockade, similar to the EU’s anti-sanctions statute (Blocking Statute 2271/96). Venezuela itself has already petitioned the ICC to investigate U.S. sanctions as crimes against humanity, citing a 40% increase in mortality due to medical shortages (Lancet, 2019). Strengthening these efforts requires coordinated action from BRICS and regional bodies like ALBA.

The claim that what is being done to Venezuela is bullying and theft of its wealth is an oversimplification that ignores the complexity of the internal US situation

While unconventional measures offer pathways to accountability, their effectiveness hinges on sustained geopolitical unity. China and Russia may lack the incentive to risk direct confrontation unless U.S. actions further destabilize their interests. However, escalating legal and economic pushback—coupled with grassroots pressure (e.g., sanctions divestment campaigns targeting Trump-linked businesses)—could erode U.S. moral authority. The Global South must weigh symbolic victories versus tangible penalties, but history suggests that even symbolic defeats can constrain hegemonic overreach. For academics, documenting these violations and advocating for transnational legal activism remains critical in shaping future norms against unilateral aggression.

Several researchers find that the US strategic interest in Venezuelan oil reserves reflects domestic energy poverty and financial desperation, which may contradict US empirical data. In fact, the US has been the world’s largest producer of crude oil since 2018, consistently producing more than 10 million barrels per day, reaching, according to US data, whose credibility is suspicious, 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Far from suffering from energy scarcity, the US is a net exporter of petroleum products, as it claims, with the possibility of energy independence increasing thanks to advances in shale extraction technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, both of which have destroyed the US environment, soil, and groundwater, according to several environmental experts.

Some may say that we should analyze US foreign policy toward Venezuela in a broader geopolitical context from an American perspective. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves—about 303 billion barrels, according to OPEC data for 2023 — making it an important player in energy markets, despite current production difficulties due to economic mismanagement and sanctions. US involvement, particularly during the Trump administration, has focused on overthrowing the democratic regime and changing it by force and through US proxies and an opposition that embraces the US agenda, alleging humanitarian crises and anti-authoritarian principles, rather than outright seizure of resources. Sanctions were used to pressure the Nicolás Maduro regime, not to directly seize oil, although critics argue that such measures may indirectly benefit US energy interests.

While accusations of economic imperialism and interventionism deserve careful scientific study, portraying US policy as mere “theft and intimidation” oversimplifies multifaceted diplomatic and strategic calculations. The Trump administration’s actions must be placed in their proper context within the long-standing tradition of US foreign policy of asserting regional influence and countering hostile powers, such as Russia and China, which have maintained economic and military ties with Venezuela. Attributing these policies to domestic failure ignores the complex interaction between national security, ideological opposition to authoritarianism, and global energy market dynamics. Rigorous scientific analysis requires moving beyond simplistic narratives to examine the structural, institutional, and ideological drivers of foreign policy in a multipolar world.

Venezuela’s struggle between past and present and lessons from the Gaza resistance

Venezuela’s contemporary struggle against foreign intervention must be understood through the lens of its historical anticolonial resistance, particularly the Bolivarian revolution’s defiance of Spanish imperial rule in the 19th century. Today, this struggle has transformed into resistance against what many Latin American scholars characterize as neo-imperial dominance—particularly U.S. economic sanctions that have cost Venezuela over $200 billion in lost revenues between 2017 and 2022, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Just as Simón Bolívar fought to liberate Gran Colombia from colonial exploitation, modern Venezuela must frame its resistance not as isolationism, but as a continuation of anti-imperial sovereignty. The current geopolitical pressure, manifested through financial blockades and political isolation, parallels historical patterns of external domination—only now administered through economic coercion rather than direct military occupation.

Equally instructive is the steadfast resistance of the Palestinian people in Gaza, who, despite enduring over 17 years of blockade (since 2007) and recurring military assaults—resulting in over 70,000 civilian deaths since October 2023, per Gaza Health Ministry reports—have refused to relinquish their land or dignity. Their resilience offers a powerful model of grassroots defiance in the face of disproportionate force and global indifference. Similarly, Hugo Chávez’s strategic bypassing of Western financial systems—exemplified by the 2005 energy-for-food barter agreement with Argentina, which exchanged Venezuelan oil for Argentine agricultural products—demonstrated that economic sovereignty could be preserved through South-South cooperation. This precedent underscores the viability of regional integration and alternative trade mechanisms in countering hegemonic control. By drawing on both historical liberation struggles and contemporary acts of resistance, Venezuela can articulate a coherent, morally grounded foreign policy that aligns with global movements against neocolonialism and for self-determination.

Conclusions:

The text critiques modern Western democracy, arguing it has become flawed, limiting citizens to choosing between two unsatisfactory options. It highlights how political party nominations often follow factionalism rather than merit, resulting in unqualified candidates. This situation worsens due to the influence of wealthy lobbies that manipulate policy for private gain, leading to a governance deficit.

Donald Trump’s presidency exemplifies these democratic issues, promoting policies aligned with specific interests while fostering military and economic instability. His administration’s actions in the Middle East and towards international relations reflect aggressive unilateralism. Additionally, Trump’s financial legacy is questioned, suggesting ties to potentially illicit activities and raising concerns about the sources of his wealth.

The history of Melania Trump, a Slovenian immigrant and former model, highlights potential issues related to human commodification and Trump’s wealth, which may involve both legitimate and illegal enterprises. Trump’s air and sea embargo on Venezuela, imposed without Congress’s approval, violates international law and worsens the country’s humanitarian crisis. To hold Trump accountable, Global South nations like China and Russia might consider sanctions, asset freezes, or legal action through international courts.

Venezuela’s significant oil reserves make it strategically important, but the U.S. involvement often emphasizes regime change rather than resource theft. The current situation reflects a historical struggle against neo-imperial dominance, paralleling past anticolonial resistance. Venezuela can draw on these struggles to promote a foreign policy advocating for sovereignty and integration against hegemonic control.

Opinion

A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

Avatar photo

Published

on

The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

Continue Reading

Opinion

NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

Avatar photo

Published

on

Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

Continue Reading

Opinion

Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

Avatar photo

Published

on

Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey