Asia
Japan’s births hit record low for 10th year as demographic crisis outpaces government forecasts
Japan’s demographic crisis accelerated to a historic velocity last year as the number of births fell for the 10th consecutive year, reaching a record low that threatens the structural integrity of the nation’s social security framework.
Data released Thursday by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revealed that births in 2025 declined 2.1% from the previous year to 705,809. This figure, which includes foreign nationals residing in Japan, represents the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1899 and marks a staggering 30% collapse in annual births over the last decade. While the pace of decline showed a marginal deceleration compared to the 5% annual drops witnessed between 2022 and 2024, the underlying trend remains systemic and severe.
In a rare glimmer of stabilization, marriage registrations rose 1.1% to 505,656 couples, surpassing the 500,000 threshold for the first time in three years. This marks the second consecutive year of growth in nuptials, suggesting a gradual recovery from the precipitous decline triggered by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The contraction of Japan’s youth population is outpacing government forecasts by 17 years. According to 2023 population projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), annual births—including those to foreign residents—were not expected to dip into the 700,000 range until 2042.
The IPSS had previously modeled a median scenario of 774,000 births for 2025, with a “low-projection” floor of 681,000. The actual data has landed dangerously close to the worst-case scenario. Experts suggest these models failed to account for the accelerating cultural shift toward remaining single or delaying marriage indefinitely. The 2023 projections relied on an optimistic post-pandemic “rebound effect,” assuming that couples who deferred marriage and childbirth during the height of the crisis would drive a surge in 2024 and 2025. That surge has failed to materialize at the scale required to reverse the decline.
The nation’s overall population shrinkage is also intensifying. The natural population decline—the gap between deaths and births—widened to 899,845 people, marking the 18th consecutive year of record-breaking contraction.
The rapid graying of society coupled with the birth dearth is poised to dismantle a social security system that relies on the contributions of the current workforce to fund the elderly. Current fiscal projections for pension solvency and long-term care costs are predicated on the IPSS median scenario; the reality of the lower birth rate renders those calculations obsolete.
According to a 2024 pension actuarial valuation by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, if Japan’s economic conditions mirror the stagnation of the past three decades, the “income replacement rate”—the ratio of pension benefits to the average net income of active workers—will fall by 10 percentage points to 50.4%.
However, should the birth rate remain at these suppressed levels, the replacement rate is projected to deteriorate further to 46.8% by fiscal 2065. This would breach the 50% “floor” mandated by the 2004 pension reform laws. With social security expenditures—encompassing pensions, healthcare, and nursing—expected to hit 140.7 trillion yen ($902 billion) in fiscal 2025, Tokyo faces mounting pressure to implement radical reforms, including benefit adjustments and the identification of alternative funding streams.
The dwindling number of children translates directly into a future labor shortage. This creates a “vicious cycle” where the insurance premium burden on the shrinking working generation increases, further depressing the disposable income of young adults and discouraging them from starting families. Japan is now under immense pressure to revise its contribution structure, potentially demanding higher payments from elderly citizens with significant assets or income to alleviate the strain on younger workers.
While the ministry is set to release the total fertility rate and birth data specifically for Japanese nationals in early June, the outlook remains clouded by socioeconomic barriers. Despite the stabilization of marriage rates, the rise of dual-income households has not translated into higher birth rates, as couples express growing anxiety over the feasibility of raising multiple children.
“The number of children per couple has been declining over the last decade,” said Shungo Koreeda, chief researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research. “We are now facing the ‘second child barrier.'”
Koreeda noted that for dual-income couples in their 20s through 40s, the estimated lifetime number of children remains stalled at approximately 1.5 as of 2022. He argued that because the burden of childcare continues to fall disproportionately on women—even as more women enter full-time employment—the logistical challenge of balancing career and home life makes raising two children feel nearly impossible for many.
Furthermore, in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the intensifying focus on elite education has driven the per-child cost of upbringing to new heights. Koreeda’s analysis indicates that the financial weight of a second or third child is becoming an insurmountable deterrent for middle-class families.
Data from the Japanese advertising giant Hakuhodo, which surveyed the values of single women aged 15 to 39, underscores this cultural shift. The study found that 35.4% of respondents “do not want to give birth,” while 20.2% “do not want to marry.”
Crucially, 78.5% of those surveyed agreed with the statement: “Even if I marry, I may not get pregnant or give birth,” a sentiment researchers attribute to deep-seated anxieties regarding the environment for child-rearing.
In response, the Japanese government unveiled an aggressive suite of countermeasures in 2023, earmarking an annual budget of 3.6 trillion yen to expand child allowances and paternity leave. While these measures are set for full implementation in the upcoming fiscal year starting in April, critics argue the policy focus remains too narrow, failing to address the growing segment of the population that has fundamentally opted out of traditional family structures.
Asia
Pentagon plans covert spy ring for economic war on China, report says
The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.
According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.
The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.
The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.
The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.
The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.
According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.
Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House
The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.
In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.
In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.
According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.
Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.
Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.
Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.
Asia
Japan plans curbs on short-term home sales to cool urban prices
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.
Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.
The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.
According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”
Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).
Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.
During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.
Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.
Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.
The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.
“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.
Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.
Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers
Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.
In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.
Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.
The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.
Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.
Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks
Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.
A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”
The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.
At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.
According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.
Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.
A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.
Asia
South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants
South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.
The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.
Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.
Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”
“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.
Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.
The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.
Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.
Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.
According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.
South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.
South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.
The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.
Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.
After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.
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