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New era in Turkiye-Israel normalization: Decision to appoint ambassadors

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The recent dialogue between Ankara and Tel Aviv aimed at normalizing relations has brought along the decision to bring bilateral relations back to a diplomatic level.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has announced that they have decided to appoint an ambassador to Tel Aviv within the framework of the mutual maximization of diplomatic relations between Turkiye and Israel.

Stressing that a dialogue process with Tel Aviv started with the election of Isaac Herzog as President, Çavuşoğlu said, “The process continued with Herzog’s visit to Turkiye and then my visit to Israel, the visit of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid to Ankara.”

Announcing the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in the field of aviation, Çavuşoğlu said that a Mixed Economic Commission meeting would be held at the beginning of September. Israel also announced in early July that it had decided to reopen its Economic and Trade Office, which it had closed at the time of the deterioration of political relations.

Stressing that Turkiye will not give up the Palestinian cause, Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu said, “We will continue to defend the rights of Palestine, Jerusalem and Gaza”.

President Erdogan had also previously made a statement about the resuming relations: “It will allow us to help our Palestinian brothers.”

The emphases on regional matters drew attention

“Israel and Turkiye will return to full normalization of relations, including reinstating ambassadors and consuls-general,” Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement.

Lapid’s argument that this step would contribute not only to deepening bilateral ties, but to strengthening regional stability drew attention.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog also emphasized the improvement of economic relations and mutual tourism in his Turkish tweet by tagging his counterpart Erdogan on his social media account.

Statement of support from the US

The US Embassy has posted a statement of support for the new period in Ankara-Tel Aviv relations. The following message was shared on the social media account of the Embassy:

“U.S. Embassy Ankara welcomes the news that Turkiye and Israel will exchange ambassadors as part of the normalization of relations between the two countries.”

From ‘One minute’ to normalization

In a session at the World Economic Forum held in Davos in early 2009, then Prime Minister Erdogan reacted to the words of former Israeli President Shimon Peres defending the attacks on Gaza with “One minute” outburst and left the session saying, “Davos is over for me.”

Although this outbreak caused a crisis in bilateral relations, the main breakdown occurred after Israel’s Mavi Marmara attack in 2010. After Israeli commandos raided the Mavi Marmara ship, seeking to break the blockade in Gaza, and killed 9 Turkish citizens, relations were minimized, and diplomatic representation was reduced to the level of charge d ‘affaires.

In 2016, steps were taken to normalize relations and mutual ambassadors were appointed. However, in 2018, Turkiye recalled its ambassador for consultations and asked Israel to take a similar step after Israel opened fire on Palestinians protesting the United States Embassy in Jerusalem, killing 60 people.

The dialogue between the new Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who took office on July 7, 2021, and President Erdogan gave the signals of normalization. Afterwards, during Herzog’s visit to Turkiye on March 9 and 10, steps to improve cooperation were discussed. Herzog became the first Israeli leader to visit Turkiye since 2008.

During a visit to Ankara on June 23 by then Israeli Foreign Minister, current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a statement was made regarding the upgrading of relations to ambassador level, which have been at the level of charge d ‘affaires since 2018. Çavuşoğlu and Lapid announced their decision to start working on mutually reappointing of ambassadors at a press conference.

There are some elements in the ups and downs of relationship between two countries that are perceived as both crises and opportunities:

The Iran factor

Israel has redeveloped its relations with the Gulf countries, trying to establish a line against Iran, which it regards as an ‘existential threat’ in the region. At a time when Iran is close to a nuclear deal, Israel is looking for new actors to expand its frontline in the region.

Tel Aviv, which seeks to include Turkiye in its strategy to balance Iran in the region, recently claimed that the Iranian secret service is planning attacks against Israeli tourists and officials in Turkiye. Following the assassination of Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, a senior commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the possibility of a “revenge attack” by Iran against Israeli citizens in Turkiye was pointed out.

Turkiye, on the other hand, cooperated with Tel Aviv by conducting operations against some Iranian citizens in line with the intelligence from Israel. Upon this, Israeli President Herzog personally called President Erdogan and thanked him.

While the two countries’ cooperation in the field of intelligence was thought to unsettle Iran, the emphasis on ‘regional stability’ in the leaders’ statements drew attention. It is evident that the cooperation that Turkiye and Israel will develop in the field of military and intelligence will serve Tel Aviv’s strategy of balancing Iran in the region. Therefore, it can be asserted that the Iran factor has an important place in Israel’s desire to get closer to Turkiye.

The Israeli press also reported that both countries “see Iran’s presence in Syria as a threat to their stability” and that they “want to strengthen coordination in Syria.”

Hamas agenda

One of the security issues between Turkiye and Israel is Hamas, one of the Palestinian resistance movements. While Israel designates Hamas as a “terrorist group”, Turkiye denies this.

Last year, Israel announced it required to see Ankara take some steps against the presence of Hamas leaders in Turkiye before starting negotiations on a settlement. Thereupon, the Israeli press claimed that “people identified with Hamas have been deported from Turkiye.” Palestinians living in Turkiye denied the allegations.

It is not certain whether Hamas agenda has come up in the latest talks or whether Israel has made any demands.

The elections factor

On the other hand, elections are approaching in Israel, which have turned into a crisis and will be held for the fifth time in four years.

As Israel’s longest-running prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is being discussed for re-election as Prime Minister on November 1, Lapid, who will race in the election as Prime Minister, is trying to prove his effectiveness and leadership during this period. Therefore, Lapid may consider rapprochement with Turkiye important for his own political future.

Eastern Mediterranean tension

Despite some time of normalization talks between the two countries, tensions are rising in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has deepened its cooperation with Greece in recent years, while in the Eastern Mediterranean, it frequently holds trilateral and bilateral exercises with Greece and the United States.

The last of these exercises took place on July 13. The two air forces reportedly conducted training exercises “on coping with various scenarios, advancing both countries’ readiness to fight in multiple scenarios and airborne refueling Greek fighter jets.”

In addition, just before his visit to Turkiye, the Israeli President visited Nicosia on March 2 and met with the leader of the Greek Cypriot administration, Nicos Anastasiades, and pledged to him that “rapprochement with Turkiye would not be at the expense of disrupting its strategic relations with Cyprus.”

Israel is also known to be uncomfortable with Turkiye’s presence in Libya and to see it as a threat to its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The gas project…

On the other hand, the Israeli press reported that Erdogan was “in an effort to develop a gas pipeline that would deliver Israeli natural gas directly to Turkiye in order to ease Turkiye’s dependence on Russian gas” and “could aim to use restored relations as a stepping stone.”

In addition to bringing gas from Israel and using it in its domestic market, the project of exporting Israeli gas to Europe via Turkiye has been on the agenda for a long time. Although this is an option for Europe, which is experiencing an energy crisis due to sanctions against Russia after the Ukrainian crisis, it is stated that Israeli gas alone will not be enough. There are also various political and economic uncertainties on the subject.

Israel’s plan to build a pipeline to Southern Cyprus and Greece effectively collapsed after the United States withdrew its support for the East-Med Pipeline Project last year. Whether Tel Aviv will engage in this project with Turkiye at the expense of confronting its partners in the Eastern Mediterranean remains a question mark.

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Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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