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Europe’s deepening crisis and Germany’s current state

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The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) went on to increase interest rates one after the other, as it was expected. Three central banks, who prioritize the “fight against inflation”, aim to make borrowing difficult and cool the economy by hiking the policy interest rate. While the ECB raised the policy interest rate to 2%, the Fed increased it to 4% and BoE to 3%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted there is still way to go on interest rates, and that with the increase, their goal is to reduce inflation to 2%. Inflation in the euro area is expected to rise from 9.9% in September to 10.7% in October. Decisions on interest rate that make borrowing difficult are thought to pose a risk of global recession.

However, the debate that the ECB’s reasons for raising interest rates are not the same as those of the Fed is also on the agenda. Some economists argue that for the U.S., post Covid-19 period led to the rapidly increasing demand and therefore inflation, while in the euro area, geopolitical tensions (such as the Ukraine-Russia war) have become the source of inflation. This view is of “inflation-phobic” Bundesbank origin, fearing that inflation will become permanent in the euro area and that this will strain the German and European economies, especially in the year-end collective labor agreement negotiations in Germany.

On the other hand, we should also note that in the euro area, which is said to have fallen into an inflation pit due to geopolitical reasons, the hike in energy prices, which experienced a huge increase in summer, has started to decline. Natural gas prices fell by 50% compared to September and by 70% compared to August, when it peaked. The EU has clearly stopped seeing this nightmare of winter freeze, for a while. In this case, the view that geopolitical elements trigger inflation is partly impractical.

Source of inflation: Demand or profit?

But what is not right for Europe is right for the United States? Earlier, we stated the mainstream interpretation of the origin of inflation in the United States was excessive demand. There are also variants of this statement: Excessive money supply causes inflation; the fact that demands for wage increase force companies to increase prices causes inflation…

These statements are highly controversial, and the policies of the central banks are contradictory. For example, BoE, which claimed to control inflation by increasing interest rates, launched an emergency bond purchase program after the real estate market alarmed following Liz Truss’s package of tax cut, and did not hesitate to release money.

Moreover, these statements observed to lose their reputation within the mainstream. In an article published in the Financial Times, it was argued that the Fed’s showing excessive demand and wages as the cause of inflation did not reflect the facts. The article by Paul Donovan, the chief economist of the world’s largest asset manager, UBS, identifies the source of inflation as the profit margins of companies, with a long-lost openness.

Prices are rising faster than wages, and real wage growth is negative, Donovan says. This finding is based on the following: Businesses and companies have grown their profits by reflecting price increase to their customers, while at the same time making people work harder and increasing wages less than the prices. Post-pandemic household continued to consume by saving less and borrowing more, and thus managed to make up for the sorry state of real wages.

Numerical repercussions of sanctions to the German industry

A report released by the IMF last February estimated that 60% of inflation in the euro area was caused by supply shocks. Therefore, supply chains smashed by COVID-19, the destruction in international trade and the manufacturing industry are among the main causes of inflation. It is seen that the sanctions imposed on Russia have also stirred up trouble in the manufacturing industry in Europe, especially in the German industry.

Perhaps BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer, best describes the state of the German industry shaped after the sanctions against Russia. BASF reported last month that should Germany be forced to ration gas this winter, it may shutter its flagship plant, which employs 39,000 people. Even if this does not happen, BASF will have to stop some of its operations next year, and European consumers will be constrained to U.S. and Asian suppliers for their chemical supply, according to experts. It should be kept in mind that natural gas is not only an energy source for BASF, but also serves as a raw material for making products such as ammonia. Therefore, BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller is one of the most important opponents of sanctions against Russia.

According to preliminary estimates published in mid-October, BASF’s net income in the first three quarters of 2022 was 909m euros. That’s a 32% drop from the same period last year. The company’s second quarterly report also shows that energy costs rose by 260% compared to the same period last year, costing the company 500m euros.

It should also be noted that along with BASF, Putin supporter Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman is the co-owner of oil and gas manufacturer Wintershall Dea. Wintershall Dea was also a major financial investor of in the Nord Stream 2 gas project.

The German energy giant Uniper is of a similar case. Announcing the balance sheet for the first nine months of 2022, Uniper reported a record loss of 40 billion euros. In September, the German government nationalized Uniper by acquiring a 99% stake. The government is expected to give Uniper a 30-billion-euro support package.

Reaction grows against US-Germany-based economy in Europe

Contrary to all expectations, Germany managed to grow by 0.3% in the third quarter. But alarm bells are ringing for other EU countries.

The EU’s second largest economy, France, grew by 0.2% in the third quarter. The growth in the second quarter was 0.5%; the recession was driven by a decline in consumption due to high inflation. Similarly, Spain grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, despite a 1.5% growth in the second quarter and a large increase in tourism revenues in post Covid-19. Yet again the slowdown in growth is also caused by decline in consumption due to inflation.

As a matter of fact, reactions to the ECB’s hike in interest rates were immediate. In her maiden speech, Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, sniped at ECB, saying hike in interest rates would create additional difficulties for states, like Italy, which have high public debt. Italy’s public debt is currently around 150% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country’s public debt to GDP ratio is around 113%, has also been critical of the ECB’s decision. Unlike the United States, European economies are “not overheating”, Macron told experts that demand must be curtailed to reduce inflation. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last month that the ECB’s credibility has become questionable, since it is driving economies into recession.

In Germany, on the other hand, the voice of the opposition began to grow more. Tino Chrupalla of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party urged the German parliament to lift the sanctions against Russia, stop selling weapons to Ukraine and withdraw Germany from U.S. unilateral politics. Sahra Wagenknecht of the Left Party described the Greens as the ‘most dangerous party’ in the Bundestag for destroying the German economy with their stance on the Ukrainian war. Meanwhile, after the Left Party Group chairman separated himself from Wagenknecht, saying that the most dangerous party was still the AfD, rumors increased that the opposition figure would leave the party and form a separate organization.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took several CEOs on a trip to Beijing. According to CNN, Scholz is accompanied by German industry titans such as Volkswagen, Siemens, Deutsche Bank and BASF. The chancellor’s visit to China comes amid controversy that began when the Chinese state-owned Cosco sought to buy shares in the operator of one of the four terminals at the port of Hamburg. It should also be acknowledged that China is Germany’s biggest trading partner. Germany, whose economy is based on exports and is separated from the Russian market, appear to be not wanting to lose the Chinese market.

Europe

Russia cuts Brussels mission staff in compliance with EU cap

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Russia has quietly withdrawn approximately 20 diplomats from Brussels in line with European Union demands, without resorting to any retaliatory measures against the EU mission in Moscow.

According to a report by the EUobserver portal, EU foreign affairs spokesperson Christian Wigand said the previous day: “The Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the EU has complied within the deadline with our decision to cap the maximum number of staff at 40 people, excluding the head of mission.”

Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, had set a deadline of 1 September for Russian Chargé d’Affaires Karen Malayan to complete the staff reduction. She cited Russia’s “abuse of diplomatic power” and the necessity of establishing a balanced staffing presence with her mission in Moscow.

The stated rationale of “abuse” rests on allegations that Russia has deployed hundreds of spies to Europe under the cover of diplomatic immunity.

Germany decides to close consulate

In an announcement on 1 September, Germany directly blamed Russia for an attack carried out at Leipzig Airport in early August and announced countermeasures.

Under these measures, it was announced that Russia’s Consulate General in Bonn as well as the Russian House in Berlin would be closed. Following the developments, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also summoned the Russian Ambassador to the ministry.

The crisis in question began on 4 August with the detection of an explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport.

Russian ambassadors summoned across Europe

Following Germany’s attribution of the Leipzig attack to Moscow, numerous EU member states summoned Russian embassy representatives to their foreign ministries.

Condemning Russia’s “dangerous and irresponsible” actions, the Finnish Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador. In its statement, the ministry said: “Russia’s actions will receive a resolute and clear response.”

Czech Foreign Minister Petr Macinka stated that Germany’s findings regarding the UAV attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport were alarming and had to be taken seriously.

Emphasising that he planned to discuss the issue with the Czech intelligence services in the coming days, Macinka announced that he had summoned Russia’s Ambassador to the Czech Republic, Anna Ponomaryova, to the ministry.

Sweden, Portugal, and Denmark were also among the countries that summoned Russian ambassadors. In his assessment of the matter, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said: “The Russian Ambassador has been summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for a meeting. Germany has reported that Russia was behind the failed hybrid attack in Leipzig. We stand shoulder to shoulder within NATO and the EU. We remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine and in strengthening our collective defence capabilities.”

On the same day, alongside the European Union, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands also summoned Russian representatives to their foreign ministries.

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German industrial bosses push for return to 40-hour working week

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Some of Germany’s biggest industrial bosses are reigniting the debate over longer working hours.

Nearly 40 years ago, German metalworkers secured a 35-hour working week by winning one of the most contentious disputes in the country’s post-war history.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), prominent companies, including Mercedes-Benz and toolmaker Stihl, have demanded that employees work 40 hours a week without additional pay, arguing that high labour costs are undermining the country’s competitiveness.

Speaking to the Handelsblatt newspaper earlier this summer, Martin Brudermuller, chairman of the supervisory board of Mercedes-Benz Group, said, “By international standards, labour here has become too expensive,” arguing that the country had lost its “productivity advantage over key competitors.”

“We must seriously consider returning to a 40-hour working week,” Brudermuller said.

Labour costs in Germany are among the highest in the EU. Hourly labour costs in the manufacturing sector stand at 49.50 euros, which is 47% above the EU average of 33.70 euros and triple the cost of 15.60 euros in Hungary.

Although German employees are more productive than their Eastern European counterparts, unit labour costs, which measure worker productivity, have risen significantly faster since 2023 compared with previous years, according to a study by the IMK, a think-tank funded by German trade unions.

The calls to return to a 40-hour week have come ahead of industrial unions starting their latest wage negotiations in October.

The 35-hour working week was phased in over more than a decade following a dispute in 1984.

In that dispute, tens of thousands of metalworkers in former West Germany staged a seven-week strike to secure shorter working hours.

Today, the 35-hour working week is the collectively agreed standard for approximately one-fifth of German employees, concentrated in sectors such as automotive, engineering, iron, and steel. Across all sectors, the average weekly working time is 37.8 hours.

Germans work fewer average annual hours than employees in almost all other OECD economies. However, this comparison is heavily skewed by the country’s high rate of part-time employment.

What has turned a decades-long debate into an urgent issue of competitiveness is the deepening crisis in the German manufacturing sector.

Having peaked in late 2017, German industrial production has fallen by more than 15% as manufacturers have been hit by back-to-back energy price shocks stemming from anti-Russia sanctions, intensifying competition from China, US tariffs, and the profound shift towards electric vehicles.

According to Marcus Berret, global managing director of the consultancy Roland Berger, high labour costs were once offset by Germany’s other attractive features for employers, such as political stability, strong infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and dense industrial clusters.

However, these advantages have begun to erode as the cost gap with countries in Eastern Europe and beyond has widened:

“When it comes to labour costs, we are not talking about a 10% or 20% gap [with rival economies]. In some cases, we are talking about a three- or fourfold difference.”

So far, manufacturing employment in Germany has declined at a much slower pace; despite the sharp drop in output, approximately 6.5 million people continue to work in the sector.

However, Berret predicts further job losses:

“If I piece together the information I have from individual companies, I estimate that the number of people employed in manufacturing will drop to below 5 million.”

Currently, around 12,000 to 15,000 manufacturing jobs are being lost each month, and major employers such as Volkswagen have already indicated that many more positions in Germany will need to be eliminated.

Economists argue that longer working hours may become inevitable for employees who manage to keep their jobs.

Martin Werding, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, says that the mechanisms manufacturers once used to compensate for high labour costs, such as relying on temporary agency workers who could be laid off during periods of weak demand, are no longer sufficient.

“Today’s challenges have grown so large that this flexibility is no longer enough,” Werding said.

A shift from 35 to 40 hours without additional pay would increase working time by 14% without changing weekly wage costs. Werding added that the debate over working hours is “far beyond symbolic politics.”

With more than 2.2 million members, IG Metall, Germany’s largest and most powerful trade union, rejects the claim that factories are bound by a rigid 35-hour working week constraint.

Nadine Boguslawski, head of collective bargaining at IG Metall and a member of the Mercedes supervisory board, stated that agreements with employers already provide companies with significant flexibility to increase or reduce working hours.

“A rigid 35-hour working week, as is sometimes portrayed, simply does not exist in the companies I know,” Boguslawski said.

She added that IG Metall remains open to finding tailored solutions for struggling companies.

At the heart of the debate lies a fundamental disagreement between unions and employers over whether longer working hours destroy jobs by distributing a fixed amount of work among fewer people, or protect jobs by making German factories more competitive.

Boguslawski argued that one of the main reasons IG Metall fought hard for the 35-hour working week in the 1980s was to “bring more people into employment” by sharing available work among more people:

“If you reverse this and increase weekly working hours to 40, you generally need fewer workers, regardless of whether those additional hours are paid or unpaid.”

However, economists such as Werding argue that the volume of available work is not guaranteed and depends on the competitiveness of firms.

They suggest that if lower labour costs per unit of output make German factories more competitive, companies can retain production and jobs that would otherwise move abroad or disappear.

It remains unclear whether the push for longer working hours will make it onto the negotiating agenda between unions and employers this autumn.

Gesamtmetall, the metal industry employers’ association, declined to comment on calls to abandon the 35-hour working week, citing “internal deliberations.”

Berret worries that the political and public debate has not yet caught up with the scale of the crisis facing German industry.

“Many people are living in a different reality regarding what lies ahead of us,” Berret said.

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Europe

Eight EU states push to curb foreign policy vetoes

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Eight European Union member states, including Germany and France, want to reorganise the bloc’s foreign policy decision-making process.

The member states circulated the proposal, obtained by Bloomberg, ahead of informal meetings of EU defence and foreign ministers taking place in Ireland this week.

Many foreign policy decisions require unanimity, a requirement that has caused specific initiatives to remain blocked for years.

Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban regularly used this veto power to block sanctions against Russia or halt support provided to Ukraine.

The document acknowledges a “radically altered environment shaped by strategic competition, growing instability, and attempts to undermine the rules-based international order”, and notes that the EU must “mobilise its collective political, economic, and diplomatic weight swiftly and effectively”.

Although the countries support “consensus as far as possible”, they are seeking solutions to accelerate the decision-making process and prevent bottlenecks without the need to rewrite the treaties, a step that would itself require unanimity.

The document proposes principles such as “sincere cooperation, avoiding linking unrelated policy debates, and constructive abstention” to ensure that member states can oppose a decision without vetoing it.

A group of countries made a similar attempt last year, but the effort is being brought back onto the agenda in the context of a broader debate on transforming the EU’s diplomatic service.

A proposal backed by Germany aims to integrate this service into the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, in order to centralise foreign policy activities.

Under the Franco-German plan, Kaja Kallas would assume a more active role and hold broader responsibilities within the European Commission. However, Ursula von der Leyen would retain the final say on foreign policy.

Under the complex architecture of the Lisbon Treaty, the High Representative leads the European External Action Service (EEAS) and designs, coordinates, and implements foreign policy on behalf of the 27 member states.

The High Representative also serves as one of the vice-presidents of the European Commission.

However, heavy portfolios that shape the course of international policy, such as trade, energy, climate, and migration, fall largely under the Commission’s remit, leaving the EEAS without tangible leverage to bring to the table.

Enlargement, another area with a distinct geopolitical dimension, rests entirely within the hands of the Commission.

This division of competences has allowed Ursula von der Leyen to expand her foreign policy role significantly.

She has also pursued an intensive travel schedule to sign various high-profile agreements.

Von der Leyen’s expanding influence has caused surprise in capitals and generated occasional criticism alleging “overreach” and a “power grab”, despite her being frequently encouraged by EU leaders to take the lead in global crises.

The Franco-German plan envisages giving Kallas an active role in coordinating external relations areas run by Commission directorates-general (DGs), such as development aid (DG INTPA), humanitarian aid (DG ECHO), defence industry (DG DEFIS), and neighbourhood relations, which are divided between DG ENEST (Eastern Europe) and DG MENA (Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf).

The high-stakes trade portfolio could also be considered.

To strengthen the new structure, a dedicated foreign policy department would be established. Until its integration into the EEAS in 2010, the Commission operated a directorate-general for external relations (DG RELEX).

In practice, Kallas would have broader and direct responsibilities within the Commission.

Yet this expansion of authority would ultimately benefit von der Leyen, as she would remain the supreme authority as Commission President, mirroring the hierarchical relationship between a prime minister and a foreign minister at national level.

The EEAS, which Kallas currently runs independently of von der Leyen, would be weakened to reduce the risk of institutional conflict.

This reform requires amending the 2010 decision establishing the European External Action Service (EEAS) rather than the Lisbon Treaty. Unanimous agreement will also be required on this matter.

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