Europe
Leaked draft reveals German coalition disagreements on key policies
Until last Sunday, the CDU/CSU, which emerged as the leading party from the early federal elections, and the SPD, which came in third, negotiated the coalition agreement in 16 working groups.
Despite the intended confidentiality, many of the final documents were leaked to the media. Numerous proposed changes within the documents indicate that the parties are still far from reaching an agreement on many points.
The policy agendas under negotiation include migration; heating, energy, and climate; compulsory military service and military equipment; transportation, construction, and housing; citizen’s income; and finance.
Migration
Migration is one of the most hotly debated topics. Although CDU leader Friedrich Merz has announced a transformation in migration policy, the SPD is unwilling to follow suit on all points.
There is agreement that police at Germany’s permanently controlled borders should be able to turn back asylum seekers “in coordination” with neighboring countries, but what this precisely entails remains unclear.
Furthermore, Algeria, India, Morocco, and Tunisia will be quickly categorized as safe countries of origin, making it harder to obtain asylum. Immigrants who commit serious crimes will be deported.
Another clear decision is that no new admission programs will be opened for foreigners in vulnerable situations. Existing ones, such as for Afghans, will be terminated “as much as possible.” Individuals with subsidiary protection status will also not be allowed to bring their families from their home countries, though this affects only about a third of temporarily recognized refugees.
According to the final report of the migration working group, deportations to Afghanistan and Syria are planned, “starting with criminals and individuals at risk,” even though the new rulers in Syria are persecuting minorities.
Several minor measures have been agreed upon to deport more people more quickly. For instance, legal counseling before deportation will be abolished; previously, those legally rejected could still be legally represented.
In the future, the Federal Police will also be able to request detention to prevent those required to leave the country from absconding. Previously, only immigration authorities could do this.
Heating, energy, and climate
Although the CDU/CSU wants to view the new government’s energy policy as a “new beginning,” many points already agreed upon seem like a continuation of initiatives started by the traffic light coalition government that collapsed last year.
The likely CDU-SPD government does not intend to change the cornerstones of climate and energy policy: the commitment to climate neutrality by 2045, the coal phase-out by 2038, emissions trading, the expansion of renewable energy sources, and the use of hydrogen.
The construction of numerous new gas-fired power plants planned by the coalition government will also proceed. However, the early phase-out of coal power generation by 2030, once desired by the Greens, will be canceled.
The ‘Black-Red’ government now wants to permanently reduce the price of electricity by at least five cents per kilowatt-hour by lowering the electricity tax and grid fees. Energy-intensive industrial companies will also receive relief through an industrial electricity price, but this will cost the state billions.
How the expansion of electricity grids will proceed is unclear. The CDU/CSU wants to prioritize the construction of high-voltage overhead lines, which are cheaper but more exposed than underground cables. The SPD prefers underground cables to prevent protests.
The CDU/CSU wants to “exploit the potential for conventional gas production in Germany” and hopes for a breakthrough with new-generation nuclear power plants.
It also demands a quick review of whether recently decommissioned nuclear power plants can be reactivated, although experts have serious doubts about this. The SPD opposes all of these points.
Leaders also seem poised for difficult discussions regarding the long-debated heating law. The CDU/CSU wants the law repealed as announced but wishes to continue the “heating subsidy.” The Social Democrats only want to amend the law and make the subsidy socially graduated.
There is apparent agreement on climate money, but this too will likely remain theoretical. They state they want to return the revenue from the CO₂ price to citizens, but conditional on introducing “non-bureaucratic and socially graduated relief and subsidies for housing and mobility.” Despite billions in new debt, there is no money for a lump-sum payout.
Compulsory military service and the Bundeswehr
Discussions about the future of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are also ongoing. The working paper of the Foreign Relations and Defense Working Group shows consensus that the Bundeswehr must become stronger “short-term, decisive, and sustainable.”
Investments could be rapidly initiated through a “Bundeswehr Infrastructure Acceleration Act,” but this law has been in effect since 2022, and bureaucracy remains the biggest obstacle to the swift procurement of weapons and equipment.
The CDU/CSU therefore wants to remove some powers from the Koblenz Procurement Office and appoint an agency for this purpose. They also aim for a “multi-year investment plan,” because a single legislative period is considered too short for arms development and procurement.
The CDU/CSU also wants to reactivate compulsory military service. The SPD opposes this, favoring voluntary service for all and a “broad societal debate” on its introduction.
Transportation, construction, and housing
Regarding transportation, there is only one point of disagreement between the SPD and CDU/CSU: the speed limit on highways. The SPD wants a limit of 130 kilometers per hour, while the CDU/CSU rejects any limit.
On the other hand, there is clarity on the future of the Deutschlandticket (the subscription ticket for buses and trains) beyond 2025. There was initial resistance within the CDU/CSU, but an agreement has now been reached to continue the subscription. However, the price will increase “gradually and with social responsibility” starting in 2027.
The new coalition partners plan to fully utilize the special infrastructure fund for their plans to renovate the railway network: the SPD succeeded in increasing investments and establishing an infrastructure fund with a binding, long-term financing commitment for the railways.
Money from the special fund will also flow into the current renovation concept for busy high-speed train lines, thereby freeing up budget funds for neglected secondary lines.
At the same time, the future government partners are opening up a new financing gap of 5 billion euros for the railway. Until now, the road network had cross-financed the rail network with the help of revenue from truck tolls. In the future, however, financing cycles within a transport sector will remain closed, and truck tolls will flow to Autobahn GmbH.
From a climate policy perspective, air transport seems to be regressing. The likely new federal government wants to reverse the increase in the air traffic tax and continue supporting regional airports, which are often unprofitable.
However, there is at least some relief for local public transport: the SPD managed to ensure that federal regionalization funds primarily flow into local transport.
The SPD also achieved a victory in housing. The rent freeze, unpopular with the CDU/CSU, will be extended for another two years.
Citizen’s Income implementation
It has been agreed that the Citizen’s Income (Bürgergeld), introduced by the coalition government, will be renamed the “new basic income.”
Job centers will receive more money for administration. Conditions will be tightened. Accordingly, every unemployed person must “actively strive to find work.”
Sanctions will be applied “faster, simpler, and less bureaucratic.” Benefits for those who persistently refuse work will be completely cut, in line with the Karlsruhe jurisprudence.
The citizen’s allowance, which Ukrainians also receive and which the state sometimes grants without sanctions, had previously sparked heated debates about fairness.
Public finance
Negotiators have barely agreed on financial details. The CDU/CSU and SPD were able to gain some breathing room in the federal budget by relaxing the debt brake for defense spending. However, the additional fiscal leeway is limited, and the list of expensive election promises both parties want to implement is long.
Ultimately, the Federal Constitutional Court declared the solidarity surcharge (additional tax) legal on Wednesday. This means the federal government will retain annual revenues of 13 billion euros.
The main point of contention is what is possible regarding taxes. For example, it is argued that there isn’t enough money for broad income tax cuts. The SPD wants to increase the tax burden on high earners. This could increase federal revenues, but it is doubtful whether the CDU/CSU will agree to tax increases.
The CDU/CSU particularly wants to reduce the corporate tax from the current 30% to 25%. However, the SPD is only prepared to do this from 2029 and only wants to reduce it by one percentage point.
There is agreement on making investments in Germany more attractive. Depreciation rules are planned to be improved so that investment costs can be deducted from taxes.
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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