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Israel’s ‘erosion’ concern over relations with the U.S.

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According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel should adjust its future policies to the “emerging reality”, considering “anti-Israel trends in the US”. According to an analysis published by the institute, the new reality has the potential to lead to significant erosion in United States-Israel relations.

In Tel Aviv, which failed to please the U.S. and Russia at the same time in the Ukrainian crisis, negative prospects for the future are increasing in relations with the United States. Tel Aviv’s relations with Russia, China and the non-Western world are handled within the frame of “rapprochement with the illiberal world” from the perspective of the U.S. established order. Developments in U.S. public opinion also reinforce skeptical approaches towards Washington in Israel.

‘Neutrality’ in Ukraine dismay Washington

Israel’s future government, which decided not to provide high-tech weapons to Kiev, is already facing pressure to “sell weapons.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who won the elections, and reiterated his request for weapons from Israel. Zelensky, who claims that Iranian drones were used by Russia, urges Israel to stand up against Iran on the Ukrainian issue. To date, Tel Aviv has not given the green light to this call, citing the challenge of its own security equation. Israel, which freely strikes the regions it declared as “Iran’s target” in Syria, won’t want to encounter Russia on this field.

Iran and Syria directly support organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, their military actions and fight against Israel. Acting with the great support of Iran, this broad block defines itself as the “axis of resistance”.

Although the “axis of resistance” is disempowered by the Arab Spring, it is still standing. Syrian-Hamas relations, which deteriorated with the Syrian war, also recovered in October. A senior Hamas official visited Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Regional states have stopped stirring the sectarian cauldron where they poured gasoline over the past decade. Considering all this, forcing Russia to oppose the Middle East does not serve the security interests of Israel.

Subtle message via Golan

The fact that Russian and Syrian fighter jets conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights gives insight into Tel Aviv’s relatively neutral policy to date. Moscow told Tel Aviv, “If you supply weapons to Ukraine regime, we may take steps that will put you in difficulty with Syria about Golan that you are occupying and that is considered part of Syria according to the UN.”

The Golan occupation is the main reason why the war between Israel and Syria is not officially over. A step to disrupt the actual situation here may be the final stage of tension, that is, a state of war. The message sent with fighter jets is just a reminder to Israel for now.

Israeli press frequently featured Hezbollah making use of Russian military experience with the Syrian war. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that there are 1 and a half million Russian-speaking population in Israel. Moscow suspended its decision to close the Jewish Agency, which was founded nearly 100 years ago. Israel is concerned that in response to its possible military support for Ukraine, Moscow will openly and vigorously support its enemies.

The essence of the recent Israeli debate in the U.S. is generated by this stance of “relative neutrality”. Providing support to Ukraine, regardless of Moscow, which has changed the military and political course in Syria since 2015, will force Israel’s fragile defenses. The war might spread to the Middle East if the advanced air defense systems requested by Kiev are given to Ukraine.

Israel occupied the Golan Heights in the 1967 War and there is still no peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Invited by Syria, Iran’s effective actions in the region is also self-explanatory. Tel Aviv won’t want to see Russia on the “axis of resistance” with all its gravity in this environment. For this reason, if “relative neutrality” is disrupted in Ukraine, it will pave the way for the developments that will challenge Israel’s security paradigm in the Middle East.

A ‘tectonic shift’ in U.S.-Israel relations

An analysis at Israel’s leading Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, which reflects the views of military bureaucracy, examines the crack in Tel Aviv-Washington relations that emerged because of the Ukrainian war. The analysis finds that the special relationship between Israel and the United States has recently turned into an “Israeli debate” and points out that Tel Aviv remains “relatively neutral” in Ukraine for security reasons.

Reporting that support for Israel is still high in the United States, INSS analysis shows that criticism towards Israel has increased, especially among younger people, apart from Democrats. As a matter of fact, the results of public opinion polls in the United States, which are consistent with this finding, are quite striking. According to U.S. pollster John Zogby, this anti-Israeli rise in the United States is a “tectonic shift”, the BBC noted.

The findings of the Pew Research Centre, cited by INSS, confirm this finding. Accordingly, for the 50+ age group among Americans, the average support is 65 percent. In younger age groups, this rate falls to an average of 45 percent. Moreover, public opinion polls conducted by the Brookings Research Institute show that among supporters of the Democrat party and young people, there are reservations about the positive attitude of U.S. administration towards Israel. Many Democrats view U.S. support for Israel as “more than necessary.”

INSS analysis summarizes future trends that will cause erosion in U.S.-Israel relations under five headings. In short, Tel Aviv-based organization puts emphasis on the following:

Demographic changes: The growth of non-white population in the U.S. makes the dialogue on fascism an important component of the political discourse. In addition, generational changes are another important factor. The generation of President Biden, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who grew up in the shadow of World War II and see war as a “necessary evil”, is being replaced by a generation who view the wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as “unnecessary.” The analysis also notes that “Israel’s claims of self-defense and wars of no choice appear hollow to them.”

Political polarization: According to INSS, multi-layered polarization in U.S. society gradually narrows the field of social consensus in U.S. society. In this context, the policy of support for Israel, which receives cross-party approval, is also on a downward trend.

The pro-Israel lobby: In this heading, the focus is on the “erosion” among American Jews. While most American Jews continue to support Israel, growing criticism of Israel by some left-wing Jewish organizations is noted.

The global order of priorities: The impact of the competition between the United States and China, and the Ukrainian crisis on U.S.-Israel relations are discussed under this heading. Noting that U.S. pays less attention to Middle East, INSS emphasizes the desire of the U.S. to reduce its military involvement and to have a more limited role in the region in the long term.

Taking account of the potential risks for the future of U.S. relations in Israel, the parties do not expect a break in the short term. Even though the emerging reality is not at the level of disrupting the unity of both states in the region strategically, the risks posed by it are being carefully studied by Tel Aviv.

Middle East

Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks

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Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.

According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.

The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.

The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.

Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.

They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.

Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”

Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.

After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.

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Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts

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The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.

Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.

Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.

The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.

The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.

Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.

Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.

Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.

Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.

During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.

The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.

On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.

Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.

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Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets

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BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.

The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.

The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.

Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.

According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.

The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.

US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.

The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.

However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.

A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”

The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.

The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.

However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.

Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.

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