Russia
The future of war after Kherson
What had been rumored anxiously for some time by the supporters of Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine came true; the commander of the operation, Sergei Surovikin, announced that they would withdraw the troops from Kherson region to the left bank of Dnieper River. Civilians had already begun to be evacuated in mid-October, based on the intelligence that Ukraine could destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, causing flooding.
The Russian general staff seems to have decided that the troops in Kherson cannot rely on supplies coming through Dnieper. The Ukrainian general staff agrees: their army destroyed Russia’s logistic hubs, command, and supply systems, and therefore “the enemy had no choice but to resort to fleeing from Kherson.”
So, both sides are convinced that the Kherson issue is a military imperative. There is no doubt that this is one of the aspects of this matter. However, it is not difficult to predict that the issue will have far too political dimension and consequences, given that Kherson is one of the Ukrainian oblasts that joined the Russian Federation in a referendum last September and the “forever with Russia” billboards in the city are kept in mind.
Public reactions in Russia
In Russia, it is doubted that the left-wing and right-wing parties of United Russia have significant differences in their political stance toward Ukraine. It’s not possible to find a party in Duma against ‘Special Military Operation.’
However, the forces led by the right-wing Rodina and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the left-wing Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) are critical of the way in which the operation is conducted, and this is becoming increasingly political. In particular, the CPRF argues that the military issue cannot be resolved unless the operation is called ‘war’ and the economy is restructured accordingly. Russia’s left-wing also expected the Putin administration would carry out a ‘left turn’ with the Ukrainian war because of its nature. But the United Russian government continues following its way, ignoring calls from the left to nationalize the economy.
Another criticism is the fate of local people, now in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in Ukraine’s oblasts next to Russia. One of the reasons for Putin’s leadership’s intervention in Ukraine was the liberation of the Russian-speaking people living in the east of the country from neo-Nazi pressure. Although it is now considered Russian territory, the lives of pro-Russian people are feared in Kherson, which has been abandoned to Ukraine. Indeed, Ukrainian troops’ posts shared on their Telegram account after entering the city reveal that this terrible expectation has become a reality.
The Russian media, on the other hand, exhibits a great deal of criticism and polyphony, contrary to our perception and that of the West. For example, an article in Russia’s most popular military news portal topwar.ru states that Kherson was handed over without a single bullet being fired, yet ‘sold’ and ‘shameless propagandists’ would legitimize it. The article remarks that what the Russian leadership calls a ‘Special Military Operation’ means war all over the world, and that Russia must now put aside ‘commercial interests’ and engage in ‘a real war’.
According to another website, Katyusha, if the withdrawal from Kherson is not due to a cunning strategy, this is the greatest defeat of the Russian army since 1991, and it is inevitable that the confidence of ordinary people in the leadership of the country will be shaken. Katyusha remains hopeful that the retreat is a trap, but it also does not rule out the possibility that the abandonment of Kherson was due to a backdoor diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia. Both publications suggest that the death of Deputy Governor of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, who was reportedly killed in a car crash, was questionable, as he opposed the evacuation.
Domestic political conflicts in Russia
While the war continues and the cracking voices in the local public are rising, some polarizations in politics also emerge. Although it is not the first ring of Russian leadership, the polarizations in the second ring are getting deeper.
The most obvious example of this is the interaction between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder and owner of Wagner, and Alexander Beglov, Governor of St. Petersburg. Prigozhin and media outlets close to him had been claiming for some time that Beglov had established a ‘criminal organization.’ Prigozhin’s company Concord took another step and applied to the Prosecutor General’s Offices of the Russian Federation and the intelligence organization FSB to have Beglov investigated on charges of ‘high treason’. If we give the Latvian-based Meduza website the benefit of doubt, the reason Prigozhin has been waging war on Beglov is because the Governor of Petersburg interfered with some of Wagner’s founders’ business ventures. Finally, the business center Wagner wanted to build in St. Petersburg was denied by the governor’s office.
It should also be noted that Prigozhin’s side also includes Chechnya leader, Ramzan Kadyrov. The two were targeted by General Alexandr Lapin, the commander of the Central Military District, who left his post citing health problems and was replaced by Andrey Mordvicev, close to the Prigozhin-Kadyrov duo.
Kadyrov’s actions are not limited to this. The Chechen leader has long been criticizing the Russian army openly. After the defeat at Liman, Kadyrov blamed General Lapin and Prigozhin immediately joined him. Some believe that the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo’s public criticism of the Russian armed forces stems from Wagner’s ‘private business relations.’
It’s clear that this issue is more intricate than it seems. The two are thought to be mainly aimed at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. Several retired officers and columnists also responded to the salvos of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo, describing the pair’s behavior as ‘demotivating.’
Potential secret alliance with the United States
The media also voiced their suspicions that there might be a secret compromise between Moscow and Washington. The Kherson retreat is still more suspicious after Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council of Russia and Jake Sullivan, the United States National Security Advisor, allegedly held a secret meeting.
Sources close to Russia say the Putin leadership has decided to end the war by reaching a comprehensive agreement with the ‘Collective West’. The fact that both Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said they did not exclude negotiations with Ukraine and the West could also be seen as a signal. Following the missiles that fell on a village in Poland, regardless of Kyiv’s and Warsaw’s call for the implementation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, U.S. President Joe Biden’s refusal to blame Russia is also a sign that something has been ‘cooked’ behind closed doors.
The understanding that such an agreement is favored by the Russian leadership, as well as China, India, Turkey, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries, is becoming widespread. In the West, the influence of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo, which comes from Russia and is thought to be a ‘hawk’, is not much exaggerated. The closest example of this is an article published on Carnegie discussing the influence of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo on the Kremlin. “They talk the talk, Putin won’t listen to them,” concludes the article’s author in a nutshell.
The weak Trumpist wave in the U.S. by-election also seems to have pushed the Russian leadership to seek a deal. Undoubtedly, the possible presidency of Trump, seen as the voice of American industrialists, will be preferred in Russia. But now that these hopes have been shelved, a need for contact with the ‘Collective West’ seems to have arisen. The meeting of U.S. and Russian spy chiefs in Turkey also speaks volumes more than nuclear fear.
Russia
Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens
Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.
According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.
Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.
In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.
With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.
The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.
The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.
On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”
According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.
The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.
It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.
Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.
Russia
Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit
Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.
After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.
The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.
One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.
The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.
State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.
Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.
Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.
According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.
Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.
“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.
Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.
However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.
Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.
According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.
Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.
Russia
Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.
The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.
During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.
Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.
Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.
Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.
In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.
According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.
These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.
The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.
In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.
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