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South Korean parliamentary elections will also determine Yoon’s programme

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South Korean voters go to the polls tomorrow to elect members of the country’s National Assembly. The outcome could have a lasting impact on the remaining three years of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s five-year term.

Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party (PPP) is aiming to win a majority against the liberal bloc led by the Democratic Party (DP) in the elections, which will see all 300 seats in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, contested.

The polls, which opened at 6am, will close at 6pm and voters will elect members of the National Assembly who will serve for four years. While 254 of the 300 seats will be decided by direct district elections, under the country’s partial proportional representation system, voters will also choose a political party and decide the distribution of the remaining 46 seats.

But given Yoon’s relatively weak support – currently hovering in the mid-30s – the PPP will face an uphill battle to wrest a parliamentary majority from the progressive bloc amid the country’s deepening political polarisation.

Instead, observers say the most likely scenario to emerge from the elections is something closer to the status quo, with both sides forced to continue to seek compromise or face the prospect of gridlock on key agenda items.

The PPP has been gaining momentum in the run-up to the elections, with a Gallup Korea poll released late last month showing 37 percent of respondents backing Yoon’s party, 29 percent the DP and 12 percent the third most popular party, the National Innovation Party, which has ties to the DP.

Analysts say the election will closely resemble the 2022 presidential race, in which Yoon narrowly defeated his arch-rival, current DP leader Lee Jae-myung, by just 0.73%, the smallest margin in South Korean presidential history.

Still, experts say voters unhappy with Yoon and the PPP’s performance could punish him and the party at the ballot box by giving the liberal bloc a 200-seat majority to override presidential vetoes and even push through measures to impeach the president.

Tokyo and Washington watching closely

Yoon’s performance in the election will be closely watched in Tokyo and Washington.

With strong encouragement from Washington, the South Korean leader has taken ambitious and politically delicate steps to rebuild Seoul’s once frayed bilateral relations with Japan, while strengthening trilateral ties with the United States, the two countries’ common ally in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat.

Yoon has also worked closely with the administration of US President Joe Biden, who has sought to revitalise Washington’s alliances in Asia in the face of China’s assertive foreign policy.

It is unclear exactly how the elections will affect Seoul’s foreign policy orientation, but no significant change is expected no matter who wins. Observers say that South Korea’s president wields too much power in agenda-setting and policy implementation, and that the National Assembly has little room to take on the president’s foreign policy agenda.

“I don’t think the election will have any impact on South Korea’s foreign policy,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor at King’s College London and an expert on the two Koreas, noting that despite the DP’s current power in the National Assembly, “Yoon has been able to establish close ties with the US and much closer ties with Japan”.

“Whatever the outcome of the election, I hope Yoon will be able to continue his current foreign policy without facing major obstacles from the National Assembly,” Ramon told The Japan Times.

Still, Seoul’s alliance with Washington remains overwhelmingly popular in South Korea, while an opposition victory could raise doubts about the continuity of trilateral cooperation with Japan, which ruled the Korean peninsula as a colony from 1910 to 1945.

While public support for the move has increased under Yoon’s impetus, the issue remains controversial, and Seoul’s ties with Tokyo – and the many historical issues that have dogged relations since normalisation in 1965 – have traditionally been used as a powerful political weapon against conservatives.

Tokyo and Washington may therefore be concerned about the election results, which could have implications for the future of their staunch ally Yoon.

If he fails to secure a parliamentary majority, he may find it difficult to push through his agenda

Indeed, bogged down and forced to devote resources to defending its policies, the Yoon administration may find it difficult to advance the president’s agenda, especially as it grapples with scandals and gaffes that have stagnated approval ratings.

The president’s gaffe during a supermarket visit last month, when he described the price of green onions, a common ingredient in South Korean cuisine, as “reasonable”, sparked a huge wave of criticism amid voter concerns about inflation.

Corruption also remains a top issue for many voters.

The Dior bag scandal, in which ambassador and first lady Kim Keon-hee, who resigned last month amid controversy over her appointment amid a corruption probe, allegedly accepted a gift of a 3 million won ($2,250) luxury bag, has put Yoon and the PPP on the defensive.

Experts say the public’s perception of Yoon as indifferent to their concerns could have repercussions, especially if his party suffers an electoral setback.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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