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Global Gateway report: Neo-colonialist and business-friendly

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A group of civil society organizations has criticized the European Union’s ‘Global Gateway’ initiative, designed to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as ‘neo-colonialist’ and ‘too pro-business.’

Launched by the European Commission in 2021, the Global Gateway aims to offer countries in the ‘Global South’ a ‘sustainable and transparent investment alternative’ to China’s BRI. By 2027, the EU plans to mobilize €300 billion for investment in infrastructure such as submarine cables, transport networks, and renewable energy, while also promoting reforms that facilitate market access for European companies.

Officially, the Global Gateway is presented as a ‘win-win partnership’ between countries in the ‘Global South’ and European companies. However, a report published last week (8 October) by NGOs, including Counter Balance, Eurodad, and Oxfam, titled Who Profits from the Global Gateway? raises concerns.

European monopolies dominate Global Gateway fund management

“When we think about the Global Gateway, it almost looks like a black box with too much branding,” said Farwa Sial at the launch of the report.

The NGOs particularly criticize the influence of large European companies in fund management and the lack of transparency in decision-making and judicial arbitration, with the Global Gateway Business Advisory Group playing a central role. This group primarily consists of economic actors from Western European countries like Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and Spain, including companies such as Total Energies and Bayer. Many of these companies also have historical ties to ‘partner countries’ in the Global South, dating back to colonial times.

A new version of the Berlin Conference on the division of Africa

“If you really want to know which companies are active where, just look at who the colonial powers are,” said Paul Okumu, head of the African Platform secretariat, at the same conference. “Germany still wants to do projects in its former colonies. In my country [Kenya], the British are still in control.”

For Okumu, the link between the projects selected by the Global Gateway and the companies’ countries of origin is reminiscent of the Berlin Conference (1884-1885), when European powers carved up Africa. “Basically, what we are doing is Berlin 2.0: dividing the continent into different countries and allocating projects to them,” he argued, suggesting that European countries are repeating the colonial process under the guise of the Global Gateway.

The issue of Africa’s division among imperialist countries in the 19th century, often referred to as the ‘Scramble for Africa,’ seemed to have been resolved with the Berlin Conference. Yet, the decisions made there did not prevent the colonial powers from clashing over their territorial ambitions.

Concerns about deepening debt and inequality

NGOs are concerned that the Global Gateway initiative could exacerbate the debt crisis in some countries.

“We analyzed [this fund’s partner countries] and found that 29 out of 37 are highly indebted poor countries,” said Alexandra Gerasimcikova, co-author of the report and head of policy and advocacy at Counter Balance. “Such projects are really risky,” she added, warning that they could further increase the debt burden on countries already facing serious financial challenges.

Commission representative: Grants alone cannot eradicate poverty

The question of whether loans or grants are the better form of financing sparked a debate between the European Commission representative and the civil society organizations at the report’s presentation.

According to Marlene Holzner, head of unit in the Commission’s Directorate-General for International Partnerships, the Global Gateway seeks new approaches, such as involving the private sector and banks in supporting the development of countries in the ‘Global South.’

“For the last 50 years or more, we have not been able to reduce poverty with the traditional approach of ‘I give you a grant, you get a gift, you don’t have to pay it back.’ […] We need to change our perspective. The Global Gateway is designed to be a paradigm shift, and we are acting based on what we have learned.”

Proposal for a new ‘Marshall Plan’

Criticizing the lack of political will to address global poverty, Sial proposed a new reconstruction plan modeled on the Marshall Plan, which helped rebuild Europe after World War II.

“In my view, the Marshall Plan was based on grants and soft loans, and that is what got Europe back on its feet,” Sial said. “If we really want to make such an offer to the world, I believe it is possible. The money is there, and we can do it.”

Global Gateway criticized for ‘protecting Europe’s strategic interests’

However, the idea of Marshall Plan-style funding did not garner unanimous support from all NGO representatives.

“In this room, we glorify grants. But there is nothing more absurd than giving me $70 billion and taking $480 billion from my continent,” said Okumu.

He argued that the problem lies in the fact that the ‘development fund’ primarily serves to protect Europe’s strategic interests and maintain the competitiveness of its companies. “When you look at policies like the Critical Commodities Act and the Green Deal, they fit perfectly into the Global Gateway,” Okumu noted.

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German defense minister clears way for Scholz to lead SPD into elections

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Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has officially withdrawn as the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) top candidate for the upcoming election, ending weeks of speculation about his potential to replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In a video message released by the SPD on Thursday evening, Pistorius stated that the ongoing public debate had harmed the party’s unity. He informed the party leadership that he was unsuitable for the chancellorship.

“Olaf Scholz is a strong chancellor and the right candidate for the chancellorship,” Pistorius said, emphasizing that the party leader embodies “reason and common sense.” He further urged, “We now have a joint responsibility to bring this debate to an end because there is a lot at stake.”

When Scholz triggered early elections two weeks ago, many assumed he would automatically serve as the SPD’s candidate, given his role as the incumbent chancellor. However, polls revealed that Pistorius, who has been defense minister since early 2023, had become Germany’s most popular politician, sparking a de facto leadership race.

Scholz faces declining approval ratings

In contrast to Pistorius’ popularity, Scholz suffered from one of the lowest approval ratings among German politicians. Voters blamed him for months of political infighting that crippled the three-way “traffic light” coalition, which ultimately collapsed earlier this month.

Despite this, the SPD central leadership continued to back Scholz. Meanwhile, Pistorius faced increasing criticism for failing to address the leadership speculation. In his video message, Pistorius denied initiating the controversy but acknowledged that it had caused “growing uncertainty” within the party and “resentment” among voters.

He emphasized that the decision to step aside was his own and pledged his full support to Scholz, whom he described as an “extraordinary” chancellor. Pistorius also affirmed his commitment to campaigning for the SPD’s re-election.

Supporters react with disappointment

Pistorius’ withdrawal left many of his supporters disheartened. “I regret this development. The aim now must be to work together and achieve the best possible election result for the SPD,” said Joe Weingarten, an SPD member of parliament, in an interview with Der Spiegel.

Another MP, Johannes Arlt, remarked, “I would have preferred a different decision, but now we have one. It is good for the party and the country. We will now go into the federal election campaign united.”

A two-way race for the chancellorship

With Pistorius stepping down, the race for the chancellorship is now expected to be between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). Merz, a millionaire and former BlackRock Germany executive, has been polling ahead of Scholz since taking over the CDU leadership in 2022. Scholz’s supporters, however, remain optimistic that he can close the gap and outperform Merz in the upcoming election.

Pistorius: A proponent of German remilitarization

Known for his pragmatic approach to military affairs, Pistorius, 64, earned respect for his tough stance on Russia and advocacy for Germany’s rearmament. Following his appointment as defense minister in 2023, he made clear his opposition to the SPD’s historical reluctance to increase military spending.

Describing Vladimir Putin as “the despot in the Kremlin,” Pistorius warned that Germany must boost defense investments and ensure it is “combat ready.” His hardline approach on security and defense issues distinguished him within the SPD and cemented his popularity among voters.

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Poland urges EU to increase spending on eastern defence

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Poland, NATO’s largest defence spender, has urged its EU partners to bolster border defences with Russia and Belarus. The move aims to demonstrate a firm commitment to European security, particularly in light of Donald Trump’s influence on global defence policies.

Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, the deputy minister responsible for preparations for Poland’s EU presidency, set to begin in January, told The Financial Times (FT) that the EU should invest in strengthening border fortifications and air surveillance systems under the Eastern Shield initiative.

“I think solidarity on the Eastern Shield could help show Trump that, as the EU, we understand what needs to be done for defence. If Trump says he will only work with countries that invest in defence, that’s fine for Poland, because we already spend 4% of GDP on defence. But what about the others? Funding the Eastern Shield would demonstrate the shared commitment of European countries,” Sobkowiak-Czarnecka explained.

The Eastern Shield, announced in May, comprises advanced fortifications and air surveillance systems along Poland’s borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This initiative is central to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s strategy to counter what he describes as “Russian aggression”, including the “hybrid war” linked to facilitating illegal migration from Belarus into Poland.

The Tusk government has allocated PLN 10 billion (€2.3 billion) for the Eastern Shield as part of broader defence expenditures. These investments will increase Poland’s defence spending from 4.1% of GDP in 2023 to 4.7% by 2025, the highest in NATO and more than double the alliance’s 2% GDP target. In contrast, some EU nations, such as Italy and Spain, have yet to meet this benchmark.

“All our partners must understand that the Eastern Shield is not solely about Poland but also about safeguarding the EU’s borders,” said Sobkowiak-Czarnecka.

Trump’s potential return to the presidency has heightened concerns across EU capitals, given his promises to impose tariffs on the bloc and signals of a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict that could favor Russia.

Sobkowiak-Czarnecka underscored Poland’s commitment to enhancing EU security on multiple fronts, from increasing military equipment production to countering disinformation and securing energy supplies.

“This Polish presidency comes at a critical juncture. As an expert on Ukraine and one of the strongest U.S. allies in Europe, Poland will be a guiding light in these challenging times,” she concluded.

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European energy market in turmoil: Gas prices reach one-year high

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The European energy market faces significant challenges as natural gas prices soar to their highest levels in a year. A combination of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Gazprom’s suspension of natural gas supplies to Austria, and colder-than-expected weather has placed substantial pressure on the market.

Industry representatives acknowledge that while sufficient gas supplies exist, the supply-demand balance remains fragile. Negative developments or geopolitical news could quickly trigger additional price surges.

On Thursday, Dutch TTF futures—a key European natural gas benchmark—rose to €48.8 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (equivalent to $538 per 1,000 cubic meters), a level last observed in November 2023. Since the end of the heating season on 31 March, prices have climbed by more than 150%.

The price surge accelerated on Wednesday after Ukraine targeted Russian territory using British-made Storm Shadow missiles. By the close of the trading day, prices had increased by 2.5%, reaching €46.8/MWh.

On the same day, the United States issued a warning based on intelligence reports, predicting a major air strike in the region. Following this warning, many Western countries evacuated their embassies in Kyiv.

Adding to the tensions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear payloads. This event aligns with speculation about changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and the US’s authorization for Ukraine to target Russian territory with long-range missiles.

While liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia remains low, traders are turning their focus to Europe to capitalize on surging prices, according to Bloomberg.

Despite the increased volatility, Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that gas storage facilities across Europe are 90% full. However, the heating season, combined with freezing temperatures in Northern Europe, has amplified concerns about market stability.

Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s Chief Financial Officer, emphasized that the market’s fragile balance increases the influence of external factors on pricing dynamics.

The state of pipeline gas supplies from Russia is another major concern. On 16 November, Gazprom halted deliveries to Austria’s OMV, citing unresolved payment issues. The company is attempting to recover part of a €230 million arbitration judgment through this suspension.

Despite this, Gazprom continues to supply 42.4 million cubic meters of gas daily to Europe via Ukraine. However, OMV cannot access these supplies and must turn to other sources, such as Slovakia, to meet Austria’s energy needs. According to OMV officials, Austria’s energy requirements are fully covered by alternative suppliers.

Jon Treacy, editor of the investment newsletter Fuller Treacy Money, noted that although Austria maintains official neutrality, most of OMV’s customers are NATO members. Treacy added that Russia’s “long, cold winter” strategy aims to exert pressure on regions beyond Ukraine over the long term.

Market analysts warn that transit through Ukraine—a minor contributor to the European Union’s total gas imports—could be entirely cut off by January 2024. Such a development would further strain an already delicate market, potentially driving prices even higher.

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