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MIDDLE EAST

Behind the ‘ceasefire in Lebanon’ claims

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Given the current stances of Israel and Hezbollah, a ceasefire seems unlikely. A softening of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s terms, perhaps under pressure from the Israeli military and the U.S., could make a ceasefire possible. However, Israel’s history shows a pattern of agreeing to terms only to later withdraw or adjust to new on-ground realities.

Ahead of the November 5 elections, the U.S., eager for a Middle East achievement, has turned to Lebanon after unsuccessful attempts for a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Senior adviser to President Biden, Amos Hochstein, is in discussions with Israeli officials today after presenting a ceasefire proposal to Lebanese representatives yesterday.

The U.S. previously proposed a temporary Gaza ceasefire and a partial prisoner exchange, but talks broke down after two days of negotiations in Doha. Hamas maintains its demand for a permanent ceasefire and an end to occupation in exchange for the release of hostages.

With prospects for a pre-election success in Gaza dwindling, the Biden administration shifted focus to Lebanon. Dropping the precondition that “a Gaza ceasefire is necessary for Lebanon’s peace,” the U.S. dispatched Hochstein to negotiate, hoping a Lebanon agreement might indirectly pressure Hamas toward a Gaza ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army leaked reports ahead of Hochstein’s meetings suggesting that Israel’s objectives in Lebanon are largely met. Following these leaks, Netanyahu convened a high-level security meeting with officials, including Defense Minister Gallant, Chief of Staff Halevi, Mossad Director Barnea, and Shin Bet Chief Bar.

Israel’s conditions

At the meeting, Gallant reportedly stated that 80% of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capacity had been neutralized. Halevi advocated for a negotiated end to the conflict, indicating that an agreement with Lebanon is possible outside the ongoing Gaza situation.

Israeli media revealed the terms developed by Dermer’s team with input from security and foreign affairs officials:

-Hezbollah must withdraw north of the Litani River, per an extension of UN Resolution 1701.

-The Lebanese army would be heavily stationed on the border.

-International monitoring mechanisms would oversee compliance.

-The Israeli army would retain rights for future operations in Lebanon should “elimination of threats” be necessary.

-Hezbollah’s future rearmament would be restricted.

-A 60-day ceasefire would be established as part of the agreement.

The proposal to Lebanon

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Sharq al-Awsat that he and Hochstein agreed to halt Israeli attacks. Berri emphasized Lebanon’s commitment to the original UN Resolution 1701 text, adding that Lebanon is ready to implement the agreement as soon as Netanyahu agrees.

Draft of Hochstein’s proposal

Israeli media leaked a draft of Hochstein’s proposed agreement just hours before he arrived in Israel. According to this draft, Israeli forces would be permitted to act in “self-defense against imminent threats” and conduct surveillance over Lebanon. The draft was confirmed by U.S. officials, though National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett noted that it does not represent the current state of negotiations.

Reports suggest Netanyahu might be open to these ceasefire conditions, though reactions within his coalition remain uncertain.

Hochstein has since conveyed the U.S. proposal to Lebanese officials, with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati hinting that a ceasefire could soon be reached. Still, Lebanese sources caution that Israel’s self-defense clauses in the draft could render it unacceptable due to perceived infringements on Lebanese sovereignty.

The United States is expected to oversee the agreement’s implementation, with Lebanon deploying its armed forces in the south alongside UN peacekeepers. The draft stipulates that, within the initial 60 days, Lebanon must dismantle non-state armed groups in the south, while Israel would begin withdrawing troops within a week of the agreement.

Hezbollah’s stance

According to a report in Al-Akbar, Hezbollah rejects any amendments to Resolution 1701 and opposes an increase in international or Lebanese forces in the south. Hezbollah does not expect the U.S. position to shift, believing instead that Israel intends to prolong the conflict.

Hezbollah remains committed to resisting negotiations that might weaken its position, seeing armed resistance as an essential safeguard for Lebanon.

Israel’s ‘ceasefire’ strategy

In essence, there appears little difference between the leaked U.S. draft and Israel’s ceasefire conditions. Hezbollah will likely oppose Israel’s operational rights in southern Lebanon, as well as the proposed aerial surveillance.

Even if an agreement is reached, Israel’s history suggests that implementation may fall short. In September, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was disrupted when Israel targeted Hezbollah leadership, and similar patterns have been observed in Gaza.

The timing suggests that Netanyahu may be leveraging ceasefire talks to ease U.S. and domestic pressures before the November elections. However, any resulting agreement may prove more symbolic than substantial.

MIDDLE EAST

Some Afghan journalists contemplating suicide; but why?

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In the past three years, the Taliban have severely limited access to information in Afghanistan and in some cases made it almost impossible. Many journalists who operate from the country say that the space for their activities is getting narrower every day.

These reporters state that in addition to self-censorship, they have experienced a kind of unwanted imprisonment and spend days and nights in their homes. They cannot move freely in the community for fear of interrogation and revenge from the Taliban.

In this report, two journalists have confirmed that they thought of suicide due to pressure from the Taliban. They say that life in Afghanistan has become difficult and that the Taliban have appeared as “death angle” and that if they did not have children, they would commit suicide.

These journalists are disappointed with the institutions that support the media and say that they have no way out of the existing problems. This is despite the fact that the Taliban have imposed more restrictions during the past month and have banned the publication of photos and images in five provinces.

One of the journalists who works under the Taliban regime says that the space for journalists to breathe and live is getting narrower and more limited every day. According to him, the Taliban have created an atmosphere where reporters and media spend day and night in worry and fear, and because of this, they cannot cover many events.

Taliban severely restricted the media landscape in Afghanistan, making it nearly impossible for journalist to operate

She emphasized that in some cases, due to the fear of the Taliban, she has covered news events a few days after they happened to prevent the Taliban from drawing attention and focusing on herself.

This reporter, who does not want to be named in the report, emphasizes that the difficult living conditions, the strict restrictions of the Taliban and the fear of being arrested and interrogated by this group made her think of suicide.

Samera, one of the Afghan female journalists, using her pin name for security reason, said that the painful experience of working under the Taliban rule has made her think about suicide many times. She says that she was once arrested by the Taliban for filming for news coverage.

“My arrest by the Taliban was the most bitter and painful experience, which made forced me to think of committing suicide,” She lamented.

This journalist says: “When the Taliban arrested me, I was thinking what my family, my colleagues and the community would say if I stayed in the prison at night?”

She furthered, “Because the arrest of a woman by the Taliban willfully or unwittingly has negative and harmful consequences that one cannot think of anything other than suicide.”

When the Taliban took some journalists, including females to the court, one of them said “why did you bring them, you should have shot them.”

“There I saw an old man who was the same age as my father. He threw himself at Talib’s feet and apologized, but Talib did not pay any attention to him,” she added.

An Afghan journalist said that he will commit suicide this time if Taliban arrest him

Omid, another journalist who used his pin name to avoid arrest, has thought of suicide many times, and he was also arrested several times. He says that despite his efforts, he did not succeed in leaving Afghanistan. “I’ll commit suicide if the Taliban arrest me once again,” he warned.

He furthered that he has heard a lot about torture and ill-treatment in the Taliban prison and has a horrible image of the prison scenes in his mind.

“Before the Taliban torture and insult me ​​in a terrible way, or take a video commitment from me… I prefer to put an end to this life,” he warned, adding that “I think that suicide is the only way to end all this suffering and misery.”

Another journalist who is currently in Pakistan also confirms that he thought of suicide due to mental and psychological problems. She says: “God is a witness to the hardships I experienced in Pakistan, it had ruined my soul and spirit so much that I thought if I committed suicide, I might get rid of these ordeals.”

In the past one month, the Taliban have continuously and systematically prevented the video activities of the media in a number of provinces across the country. After banning photography and filming, this group has now banned five provinces from these activities and announced that this restriction will be gradually applied in all provinces.

The Taliban authorities have informed the local media of the ban on taking pictures and publishing them, as well as banning the video interviews of their officials in Nangarhar province.

Azizullah Mustafa, the deputy governor of the Taliban in Nangarhar has ordered all the local employees that according to the order of the Taliban supreme leader it is forbidden to take pictures of living creatures and publish them, and the media is only allowed to communicate with Taliban officials.

Taliban already banned taking pictures of living creatures in five provinces in Afghanistan

Kandahar, Takhar, Badghis, Helmand and Nangarhar are among the provinces, where taking pictures of living creatures and publishing them, as well as video interviews, are completely prohibited.

The Taliban have closed three radio stations in Khost province during the past month under extensive pressure. “Gharghasht”, “Zheman” and “Long” radios have been blocked by the Taliban and they have resumed their activities after providing a written commitment to comply with the Taliban’s orders.

The Center of Afghan Journalists has already announced that the Taliban have imposed 17 restrictive directives against the media. These restrictions include preventing women from appearing on national radio and television, banning media coverage of demonstrations and civil protests, imposing restrictions on access to information and publishing news and reports, requiring journalists and media to introduce the Taliban regime as the “government of Afghanistan”.

Also, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on interviews with their opponents and critics. They have banned the broadcast of international television programs in Afghanistan and have imposed restrictions on publishing commercials with political, security and social content. In addition, the media have been prohibited from criticizing the work of Taliban officials, and filming, video interviews, and the publication of women’s voices have been prohibited from the media.

Also, it is forbidden to work with the media that have been declared “forbidden” by the Taliban, and in Helmand province, the publication of women’s voices in the local media is completely prohibited. Orders have also been issued to the media to refrain from using “foreign terms”, which refers to the use of “
“Persian words” for university and college. Prohibiting photography and filming in official and informal meetings of local Taliban officials in Kandahar, and banning girls from making phone calls to radios and televisions in Khost province are among the other restrictions imposed by the Taliban on domestic media in Afghanistan.

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MIDDLE EAST

ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant on war Crimes charges

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, citing war crimes in Gaza.

Despite sanctions and threats from Israel and the United States, the ICC’s decision was based on overwhelming evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians. Among the charges, Netanyahu and Gallant were accused of using starvation as a weapon, with the court stating these allegations are founded on “reasonable grounds.”

Israel reportedly employed its intelligence agency, the Mossad, to spy on, hack, pressure, defame, and allegedly threaten senior ICC officials in an effort to obstruct investigations. Although these efforts were partially exposed through the international press and statements from ICC staff, they failed to deter the Court’s proceedings.

The ICC also clarified that it is undeterred by Israel’s non-recognition of the Court’s authority or its rulings.

Additionally, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masr on related charges.

While this ruling may not immediately halt Israeli military actions in Gaza or reduce U.S. support for Israel, it is likely to deepen divisions among European nations over their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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MIDDLE EAST

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

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Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the Hamas Political Bureau, announced on Al-Aqsa TV that Hamas had accepted a proposal to form a committee to administer Gaza, with the condition that its operations be entirely local.

In his statement regarding the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, al-Hayya said: “An idea has been proposed to establish a committee for the administration of Gaza. This suggestion was made by our Egyptian brothers. We have responded responsibly and positively. We accept this proposal on the condition that the committee will operate in a fully localized manner, overseeing all aspects of daily life in Gaza.”

Earlier this month, representatives from both the Hamas and Fatah movements convened in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss a potential ceasefire and the establishment of this administrative committee.

Commenting on the indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel, al-Hayya stated: “There will be no prisoner exchange until the Israeli genocide stops. This is an interconnected equation. We are very clear on this: we want this aggression to end. These attacks must cease before any prisoner exchange can take place.”

Al-Hayya added that Hamas remains ready for a ceasefire agreement but emphasized that Israel must demonstrate genuine willingness to proceed. “We are engaging with mediating countries to advance ceasefire negotiations. However, Netanyahu is hindering progress in these talks for political reasons,” he said.

Since the escalation of violence on October 7, 2023, indirect negotiations between the parties have continued, with countries like Qatar mediating ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreements. Both the United States and Egypt have played supporting roles in these efforts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism domestically and from the international community for failing to secure a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. Analysts highlight those additional conditions introduced by Israel, particularly its insistence on maintaining control over the Egypt-Gaza border and the Philadelphi Corridor, have further complicated the negotiations.

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