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MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon faces deadline to elect president during ceasefire

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Lebanon is “obliged” to elect a president during the 60-day ceasefire with Israel, according to an additional protocol included in the ceasefire agreement, it has been claimed. The Lebanese parliament, which has failed to elect a president for over two years, will vote again in January.

Three official sources in Beirut told The National that Lebanon is “obliged” to elect a president during the 60-day ceasefire with Israel as part of the agreement that ended the conflict with Hezbollah. After multiple failed attempts over the past two years, the Lebanese parliament has announced a new vote scheduled for January.

The announcement follows the recently established ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

A senior Lebanese security source involved in the ceasefire negotiations told The National: “During the negotiations that led to the agreement, it was agreed with the mediators that Lebanon must elect a president within the 60-day ceasefire period. This is part of the agreement.”

According to a Lebanese government source, the ceasefire agreement includes “an additional protocol” mandating the election of a president and the formation of a government during the 60-day period. The agreement also aims to reactivate key Lebanese state institutions. Another senior political source in Beirut emphasized that “a meeting will be held during the 60-day ceasefire to elect a president,” but did not provide further details.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed the presidential election session, stating: “I promised myself that I would set a date for a session to elect the president of the republic immediately after the ceasefire. I now announce that the session will be held on 9 January. We have one month to reach an agreement.”

However, it remains unclear whether the session will successfully lead to the election of a president.

Berri’s announcement coincided with a visit to Beirut by Jean-Yves Le Drian, France’s special envoy to Lebanon.

Lebanon’s complex sectarian system of government, established during the French mandate, mandates that the Speaker of Parliament be a Shia Muslim, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the President a Christian Maronite. However, deep divisions between the Maronites and other political factions have prevented a consensus on the presidency.

The Lebanese presidency has been vacant since November 2022, following the expiration of Michel Aoun’s six-year term. In June, the Lebanese parliament held the latest in a series of unsuccessful election sessions, failing to secure a quorum needed to elect a president.

Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are backing Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Christian Marada Movement. However, Hezbollah’s support for Frangieh has strained its alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement. Meanwhile, the Free Patriotic Movement and several independent opposition MPs have thrown their support behind Jihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Director for the Middle East and Central Asia and a former Lebanese Finance Minister.

MIDDLE EAST

UN to hold conference on two-state solution

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The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has approved a resolution to organize a high-level conference aimed at advancing a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.

The 193-member body adopted the draft resolution, introduced by Senegal and co-sponsored by several nations, including Turkey, with 157 votes in favor, 8 against, and 7 abstentions.

The resolution mandates the conference, titled the “High-Level International Conference on the Peaceful Resolution of the Palestinian Question and the Two-State Solution,” to take place in New York from June 2 to 4, 2025. It calls for the adoption of a final declaration outlining a roadmap to resolve the Palestinian issue peacefully and establish a two-state framework.

The resolution emphasizes resuming negotiations on the final status of the Middle East peace process, holding a separate peace conference in Moscow, and reaffirming Israel’s obligations under international law and previous agreements.

It demands that Israel, as the occupying power, immediately cease settlement activities, evacuate settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and halt demographic and territorial changes in East Jerusalem, Gaza, and other areas.

The resolution reiterates the illegality of acquiring land by force and highlights how such actions undermine a two-state solution. Additionally, it calls for an immediate cessation of violence, including military attacks, destruction, and terrorism.

The UN also urged its members to continue providing economic, humanitarian, and technical assistance to the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority, emphasizing the dire situation in Gaza.

Citing the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the resolution reaffirmed Israel’s obligation to “fully compensate” for damages caused by its unlawful acts.

Resolution on the Golan Heights

Separately, the General Assembly adopted a resolution demanding Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights, with 97 votes in favor, 8 against, and 64 abstentions. This resolution, sponsored by countries including Egypt, Lebanon, and South Africa, stresses that territorial acquisition by force violates international law and the UN Charter.

The document denounces Israel’s settlement activities in the Golan Heights as illegal and highlights its failure to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 497, adopted in 1981. The resolution asserts that Israel’s continued occupation constitutes de facto annexation and impedes comprehensive peace in the region.

The General Assembly urged Israel to resume negotiations with Syria and Lebanon and reiterated the demand for its withdrawal from the Golan Heights under relevant UN Security Council resolutions. It also expressed concern over the stalled Syrian peace process and called for its revival.

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MIDDLE EAST

Flights resume between Iran and Saudi Arabia after nine-tear hiatus

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Flights between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had been suspended for nearly nine years, have officially resumed with the reinstatement of the Mashhad-Dammam route.

According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), the first passenger plane from Mashhad landed at King Fahd International Airport (commonly known as Dammam International Airport) in Saudi Arabia. As part of the agreement between the two nations, this route will operate twice weekly, marking a significant step in restoring ties.

Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were severed on January 3, 2016, following a series of escalating events:

On January 2, 2016, Saudi Arabia executed 47 individuals, including prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, on charges of “terrorism.”

The executions provoked widespread anger in Iran, leading to protests. Demonstrators in Tehran and Mashhad attacked and set fire to the Saudi embassy and consulate buildings.

In response, Saudi Arabia formally cut off diplomatic relations with Iran the following day.

Compounding these tensions, the Yemen crisis, which began in March 2015, further strained relations. The two nations found themselves on opposing sides of the conflict, deepening the rift.

On March 10, 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a groundbreaking agreement to normalize relations. Facilitated by diplomatic initiatives from Iraq and China, the agreement includes reopening embassies in both countries, resuming direct flights, and streamlining the visa process to encourage travel and exchanges.

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MIDDLE EAST

Organisations waging war against the Syrian army: Which organization, backed by whom, is attacking where?

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The attacks of the terrorist organizations led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured the rest of Idlib, all of Aleppo and the northern countryside of Hama in Syria, were followed by the attacks of the Turkish-backed FSA in Tal Rifaat, the U.S.-backed FSA in al-Bukamal and the YPG in Deir ez-Zor. The Syrian army looks disorganized in the attacks, which ‘coincided’ with a period when Russia and Iran, which support the Syrian government, were busy with their own agendas. The Syrian army’s unopposed retreat from Aleppo could have profound implications for Syria’s political future.

So which organizations are fighting in Syria, where and against whom? Which powers are supporting them and why?

1- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Idlib-Aleppo-Hama

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the leading terrorist organization targeting the Syrian army in the battlefields of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.

The Fateh al-Mubin Operations Room, formed with the participation of HTS and other organizations, launched an attack against the Syrian army on 27 November under the name of “Operation Deterring Aggression”. The groups took control of Aleppo, 310 kilometers from the Syrian capital Damascus, and captured some small settlements towards Hama province. According to AA, the groups also took control of the settlements of Jalime, Alzeka, Beridej, Jubbeyin, Tal Meleh, Kirkat, Mughayyir and Mabtan in Hama, and the villages of Tuwayne, Huwayz, Sheria and Bab Taka in the Gab Plain.

A ‘commander’ from Fateh al-Mubin’s operations room, who requested anonymity, told Majalla that in addition to HTS, Jaysh al-Izzah and Jaysh al-Nasr, as well as some of the groups under the umbrella of the Turkish-backed FSA, such as the Nour al-Din Zengi Movement, the National Liberation Front and the Joint Force, are involved in attacks in the area.

Around 40,000 opposition fighters are involved in attacks against the Syrian army in Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. The commander said that the groups have about 80,000 fighters in reserve, all of whom have received military training in various forms of warfare and conflict, how to deal with circumstances, how to use weapons and how to confront regime forces and their allies.

HTS, formerly al-Nusra, was formed under the leadership of Abu Mohammed Golani, who was sent to Syria in 2011 by the Islamic State of Iraq (ISIS), the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

When Golani, the leader of al-Nusra, which had grown rapidly by exploiting the chaos in Syria, and Baghdadi fell out, Baghdadi announced the dissolution of al-Nusra in 2013. In the same statement, Baghdadi announced the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and declared that ISIL was expanding into Syria.

Meanwhile, al-Nusra declared its allegiance to al-Qaeda, but this did not prevent ISIS from seizing the vast majority of al-Nusra’s human, ammunition, and financial resources in Syria. The crisis between the two organizations also went to al-Qaeda’s central arbitration center, but the crisis could not be resolved.

Because of its links to al-Qaeda, al-Nusra was quickly placed on terrorist lists by various countries. Turkey added it to its list of terrorist organizations in 2014. From 2014, as ISIS spread rapidly across Syria, al-Nusra and other groups were trapped in the Idlib region.

Russia’s intervention in Syria and the Syrian army’s rapid operations to ensure territorial integrity led al-Nusra to unite with other groups. To this end, it announced that it had severed its ties with al-Qaeda and adopted the name Jabhat Fateh al-Sham Front (JFC).

Of course, the ‘break’ with al-Qaeda was only superficial. For al-Nusra’s move came immediately after al-Qaeda’s leadership advised it to ‘do whatever is necessary for the benefit of the jihad in Damascus and to unite with other organizations’. However, even the name changes only resulted in the unification of the SFC with a few small groups.

In 2017, HTS was formed under the military leadership of Golani, along with a few other groups such as the Nureddin Zengi Movement, Liwa al-Haq and others. HTS declared its goal to be “the rule of Sharia and the rejection of secularism”.

In January 2017, a ceasefire was declared in Idlib as part of Astana, excluding ISIS and al-Nusra. However, HTS took advantage of the ceasefire to engage in a confrontation with Ahrar al-Sham, the other main group in Idlib, in the summer of 2017, and suffered a major defeat. Since then, HTS has rapidly expanded and recruited other organizations, either by force or voluntarily, and by the end of 2019 it controlled 95% of Idlib. With around 30,000 fighters, it is the most effective armed force in the region.

2- Turkey-backed FSA (SNA): Northern and Northern countryside of Aleppo

The Turkish-controlled FSA (Syrian National Army – SNA), the most ideologically mixed front organization, is the military organization of the Coalition of Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (SMDK). They also have a government called the ‘Syrian Interim Government’.

There are dozens of organizations within the SNA, such as Faylaq al-Sham, Jaish al-Ahrar, Jaish al-Nasr, Ahrar al-Sham, Nour al-Din Zengi. Many of these organization are known to have received military and financial support from the CIA-controlled Military Operations Coordination Room and Gulf states in the past.

While some of the SNA-affiliated organizations took part in the HTS-led Aleppo offensive, some of them captured the Tal Rifaat district center as part of Operation Dawn of Freedom launched against the PKK/YPG.

According to Majalla, the day after the HTS launched its offensive, Turkey summoned the SNA factions in its area of influence in northern Aleppo for a secret emergency meeting. One of the SNA commanders said that during the meeting an agreement was reached with the Turkish side to expel the YPG from the areas it controls in the neighborhoods of Ashrafiya and Sheikh Maqsoud in northern Aleppo, Tal Rifaat and Manbij in the northern countryside of Aleppo, in parallel with the HTS operation.

3- PKK/YPG: East of the Euphrates in Deir ez-Zor

The US-backed terrorist organization PKK/YPG, which was forced to withdraw from Tel Rifaat after the Turkish-backed FSA attack, has launched an attack to drive the Syrian army out of 7 villages in Deir ez-Zor province, east of the Euphrates.

According to AA, the PKK/YPG launched an offensive against the Syrian army in the villages of Murrat, Hashsham, Mazlum, Tabiya, Husseiniye, Salihiyyah and Hatlah, and clashes are ongoing.

The Syrian army is known to be present in the area from Deir ez-Zor city center to al-Bukamal district near the Syrian-Iraqi border.

The PKK/YPG occupy almost all of Deir ez-Zor east of the Euphrates River, while the center of the province and other rural areas are under the control of the Syrian army.

4- US-backed FSA: Iraqi border in Deir ez-Zor

The U.S.-backed FSA launched an attack on the towns of al-Bukamal and Meyadin in Tanf, where US forces are stationed in the Syrian provinces of Homs and Deir ez-Zor.

The aim of these attacks is to sever Syria’s link with Iraq. Iranian groups supporting the Syrian army are concentrated in al-Bukamal, close to the Syrian-Iraqi border. This area is critical for the land link with Iranian-aligned forces in Iraq.

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