NATO has urged a comprehensive investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane on Wednesday morning, which resulted in the tragic loss of 38 lives. Suspicion is growing that Russian air defense systems may have been involved in the incident.

The Embraer E190 passenger aircraft was en route from Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, to Grozny, the Chechen capital, when passengers reportedly heard an explosion. The plane was diverted hundreds of kilometers off course before crashing near the Kazakh city of Aktau. Miraculously, 29 people survived the crash.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243,” NATO spokeswoman Farah Dakhlallah said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. “We wish a speedy recovery to those injured in the crash and call for a thorough investigation.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed the call for patience, stating on Thursday, “We need to wait for the conclusion of the investigation,” while cautioning against premature assumptions.

Russia’s aviation watchdog attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, which allegedly forced the aircraft to divert to Aktau. However, competing theories have emerged.

Media outlets including Reuters and Azerbaijan’s Caliber have speculated that the passenger plane was struck by a Russian air defense missile. These reports suggest the incident occurred in an area where Moscow has been actively targeting Ukrainian drones in recent weeks.

According to Caliber, citing Azerbaijani officials, the aircraft’s emergency request to land at three nearby Russian airports was denied. Instead, the plane was directed to fly over the Caspian Sea, exacerbating its perilous situation.

Further fueling these suspicions are reports of a simultaneous drone strike on Grozny. In a now-deleted Instagram post, Chechen Security Council Secretary Khamzat Kadyrov claimed that a drone attack on Grozny had been successfully neutralized.

Beijing’s brokering of a historic peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year marked a significant shift in China’s engagement with the Middle East. The agreement was seen as a landmark achievement, positioning China as a mediator in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

For Tehran, facing economic and geopolitical pressure from the Biden administration, the deal was a diplomatic breakthrough. It also offered a chance to reduce isolation with Beijing’s support.

However, the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the setbacks faced by Hamas and Hezbollah in their conflict with Israel have fragmented Iran’s regional influence. These developments, coupled with growing threats from Israel, pose significant challenges to Tehran’s strategic position.

Experts suggest that the return of a hawkish U.S. administration under Donald Trump could strengthen the China-Iran alliance. Shared pressures may push both nations toward closer cooperation, reshaping the region’s diplomatic dynamics.

Chinese analysts caution, however, that Beijing’s ability to sustain its mediation role may be at risk. Rising tensions between Tehran and other regional powers could jeopardize the peace China’s diplomacy has fostered. Such conflicts would not only test Beijing’s influence but also challenge its long-term strategic interests in the Middle East.

Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of International Studies, notes that U.S. pressure on Iran is unlikely to wane. “Coupled with Israel’s strikes and the destruction of Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah last year, this will compel Iran to favor closer cooperation with other powers, including China and Russia,” Fan remarked.

Iran’s economic woes date back to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of stricter sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. These sanctions continue to hinder Tehran’s economy, influencing its strategic partnerships and regional policies.

The Biden administration announced a new trade investigation on Monday, focusing on Chinese-manufactured “old generation” semiconductors. This move could lead to additional U.S. tariffs on chips that power everyday products such as cars, washing machines, and telecom equipment.

The Section 301 investigation, initiated just four weeks before President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20, will be handed over to the incoming administration for completion. This investigation may serve as a foundation for Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

In his final weeks, outgoing President Joe Biden imposed a 50% tariff on Chinese semiconductors, effective January 1. Additionally, his administration implemented stricter export restrictions on advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips, memory chips, and chip manufacturing equipment destined for China. Tariffs on Chinese solar panels and polysilicon were also increased to 50%.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), which oversees the investigation, stated the goal is to safeguard market-oriented chip manufacturers from the surge in China’s domestic chip production.

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai emphasized that Beijing’s aggressive policies target global dominance in the semiconductor industry. She compared these efforts to China’s expansion in sectors like steel, aluminum, solar panels, electric vehicles, and critical minerals.

“This allows Chinese companies to rapidly increase production capacity and offer artificially low-priced chips, harming or potentially eliminating their market-driven competitors,” Tai explained.

The Biden administration has invited public comments on the investigation starting January 6, with a public hearing scheduled for March 11–12. However, it remains unclear if Trump’s nominee for USTR head, Jamieson Greer, will secure Senate confirmation before the hearing.

The investigation falls under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute invoked by Trump in 2018 and 2019 to impose tariffs of up to 25% on approximately $370 billion worth of Chinese imports. The resulting trade war with Beijing lasted nearly three years.

If Trump inherits the investigation, it must be concluded within a year of its launch. The scope includes both imported chips and their use in critical industries like defense, automotive products, and medical devices. The inquiry will also target China’s production of silicon carbide substrates and wafers essential for semiconductor manufacturing.

US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo revealed disturbing findings from her department’s research: Two-thirds of US products that rely on chips use older-generation chips made in China. Half of US companies, including those in the defense sector, do not know the origin of their chips.

“These findings are very troubling,” Raimondo said, adding, “This undermines U.S. companies and increases dependency on China for critical components.”

Despite partisan divides, China tariffs represent a rare area of alignment between the Biden and Trump administrations. Biden upheld all tariffs imposed during Trump’s tenure and even expanded them. For example, he imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), effectively barring their entry into the U.S. market.