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The Syrian Regime Change Further Alters the Middle East Landscape

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On December 18, just ten days after the fall of Syria’s capital and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the opposition, which had not yet firmly seized power, gained preliminary recognition and acceptance from all adversaries. This rare “political favor” is dazzling and even somewhat difficult to comprehend. Not to mention that Russia and Iran, which were still directly confronting opposition forces ten days ago, suddenly reversed their stance and reconciled with their long-standing enemies. Even the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union, which had previously designated the main opposition force, the “Liberation of Syria” Front, as a terrorist organization, reversed their policies, selectively forgot their long-standing crimes, and quickly engaged with them face-to-face. They are now prepared to collectively promote the construction of a “New Syria” under the framework of UN Resolution 2254.

If the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has lasted for more than a year, has profoundly reshaped the Middle East landscape, then “Syria War 2.0,” as the “black swan event” of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, will further accelerate this transformation.

The latest round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict erupted on October 7 last year, triggering the “Sixth Middle East War.” This war is a genuine hybrid war, encompassing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Seven-line Combat,” as well as what I define as the “Eighth Front,” which is Israel’s civil and military confrontation with the United Nations.

I support the term “Sixth Middle East War” because, in terms of its duration, scope, participating forces, casualties, material losses, and impact on global security and stability, this war qualifies as a large-scale regional war, fundamentally different from the five Middle East wars between 1948 and 1982.

The first five Middle East wars began with the partition of Palestine in 1948. At that time, World War II had just ended, and the Cold War structure had yet to form. The United States and the Soviet Union, which had rapidly ascended to superpower status by leading the world in defeating the fascist Axis powers, sought to use the Palestine issue to expel the three traditional hegemons – the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire, and the French Republic – from the Middle East, thereby establishing a new regional order and power structure.

Meanwhile, the number of newly independent Arab states emerging from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire was limited and lacked unity. As a result, Palestine was forcibly partitioned and handed over to the Jewish people as compensation for Europe’s long-standing persecution and massacres against them. The establishment of Israel constituted a great injustice to the Arab nations and the indigenous Palestinians because, for nearly two thousand years, Jews had not been the dominant indigenous population of Palestine. However, under the auspices of the United Nations, the great powers imposed the “State of Israel” on the Arabs, particularly the Palestinians, whom we are familiar with today.

In 1956, the Suez Canal War broke out, and the United States and the Soviet Union jointly thwarted the joint invasion of Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel. This further weakened the declining British Empire’s control over the Eastern Mediterranean region, particularly the Suez Canal. Subsequently, the 1967 “Six-Day War,” the 1973 “Yom Kippur War,” and the 1982 “Lebanon War” were all proxy wars between the US and the Soviet Union for dominance in the Middle East. Arab countries either followed the Soviet Union in an attempt to recover lost territory or stood by as spectators, pursuing self-preservation. However, Israel was, without a doubt, the “Middle Eastern orphan.”

The historical context and factions involved in the “Sixth Middle East War” have undergone a complete and transformative shift. More than 40 years after the end of the Cold War, Russia, as the successor to the Soviet Union, has seen its strength significantly weakened by focusing on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Meanwhile, the United States, as in the previous three Middle East wars, spares no effort in supporting and defending Israel. The vast majority of Arab countries remain on the sidelines, avoiding entanglement in this new war centered around Israel. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE even assisted in defending Israel during Iran’s airstrike in April.

In the “Sixth Middle East War,” Israel’s primary opponent is no longer a coalition of Arab nations but the “Axis of Resistance,” which bears a far stronger pan-Islamist hue than pan-Arab nationalism. The Pahlavi dynasty of Iran, which stayed out of the first five Middle East wars, has long since passed. The Islamic Republic, which came to power through the 1979 revolution, has long engaged in proxy and shadow wars with Israel, driven by its dual motivations of Islamic revolutionary ideology and the ambition to become a Middle Eastern superpower. However, through Israel’s bombing of Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria and the assassination of Hamas leaders in Tehran, Iran was forced into the open and directly involved.

Since 1973, Syria had maintained a cold peace with Israel and lacked the capacity to confront Israel alone. Moreover, after 13 years of civil war, Syria was fragmented and could only passively serve as the battleground for the Israel-Iran confrontation. Two state actors, Iran and Syria, along with four non-state actors – Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq – collectively assumed the main role in resisting Israel, forming what is known as the “Axis of Resistance.”

At the same time, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France continued to defend Israel by imposing sanctions and containing Iran and Syria. Through limited military operations, they targeted and restrained the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, carefully avoiding escalation and expansion of the conflict, especially to prevent being dragged into this century-defining war in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, peripheral actors such as the “Liberation of Syria” alliance and the “Syrian National Front” supported by Turkey seized the opportunity in the later stages, becoming involved in this new Middle Eastern war, which initially had little to do with them. They easily reaped significant benefits, unexpectedly toppling the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The “Sixth Middle East War” unfolded in three major phases. The first phase lasted for a full year until September, with Gaza as the primary battlefield, where Israel focused on the “southern campaign” against Palestine. The second phase, lasting from September to the end of November, saw Israel shift focus to the “northern campaign” against Lebanon, targeting the leadership and forces of Hezbollah, destroying its infrastructure, and cutting off its strategic route to Iran through Syria.

The third phase, from late November to December 9, saw Israel reach a ceasefire with Hezbollah while completely destroying its land routes to and from Syria. Simultaneously, Israel carried out heavy bombardment of Syria’s northwestern military frontlines, causing the already weakened and demoralized Syrian army to collapse. This cleared the path for the mixed opposition forces, which had been planning an offensive for six months, allowing them to accelerate the disintegration of the Damascus regime.

The “Sixth Middle East War” led to the collapse of the Assad regime, surprising all parties involved. Perhaps Israel only intended to use opposition forces to further reduce the Damascus regime’s control and weaken the “Shia Crescent” and the “Axis of Resistance.” The opposition forces did not anticipate their adversary’s vulnerability, nor did they expect that Russia and Iran, which were supporting Assad, would be so depleted. Alternatively, it is possible that through Turkey and the framework of the “Astana Process,” the three parties had already negotiated a deal, ultimately collaborating to bring an end to the Assad regime.

The sudden collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime took both the United States and Israel by surprise. As a result, the U.S. deployed heavy weaponry, including B-52 strategic bombers, to launch intense airstrikes against the remaining forces and controlled areas of ISIS. Meanwhile, Israel exerted maximum effort to completely destroy Syria’s defense forces, which it had tolerated for decades, to prevent them from falling into the hands of the new regime. Israel also expanded its illegal occupation of the Golan Heights, advancing closer to Damascus to deepen its defensive buffer zone.

The reason is simple – the “Liberation of Syria” alliance originated from Al-Qaeda, with its ideology rooted in “Jihadist Salafism.” The U.S. and Israel are seen as its natural strategic and ultimate enemies, regarded as the “forces of evil” and the “new crusaders” that must be completely eradicated. Compared to the Assad regime, which sought to reclaim occupied territories, and the Iranian Islamic government, which aimed to expand its geopolitical influence through Middle Eastern issues, the answer to who poses the most dangerous and deadly threat is evident.

The “Sixth Middle East War” has triggered a chain reaction, leading to a “Syrian Civil War 2.0.” This has resulted in the unexpected victory of Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, the global enemy, marking a shocking and ironic twist. However, the strange aspect of this new Middle Eastern war is that the new rulers, who captured Damascus and declared it an “Islamic victory,” openly announced that they would not consider Israel an enemy. They expressed no intention to initiate new conflicts but instead showed willingness to establish normal relations with all parties, focusing on stability, development, and improving livelihoods – as if demons had transformed into angels overnight.

The “Sixth Middle East War” appears to be nearing its end and may conclude with Hamas releasing hostages and reaching a long-term ceasefire with Israel. The “Shia Crescent” is already crippled, the “Axis of Resistance” is in full retreat, and the Damascus regime has shifted allegiance. With Trump, a staunch supporter of Israel, about to take office, media attention on the Middle East will shift from Gaza, the starting point of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, to Damascus. The world will scrutinize whether the new regime can stabilize its base, quickly reconcile with the international community, including its former strategic adversaries – the U.S., the West, and Israel – and establish an inclusive transitional government under UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The goal will be to restart the constitutional amendment process and eventually build a new Syria where multiple ethnic groups and sects coexist, balancing the interests of all parties.

In theory, the transformation of a Syria that has been “torn apart” does not depend entirely, or even primarily, on the will of the new rulers in Damascus. Rather, it hinges on the bargaining between the United States, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Israel, and even the Gulf Arab states, which had been previously sidelined from the Syrian chessboard but are now reengaging. This reflects the historical reality that small countries cannot independently determine their own futures. It is an inevitable result of great power competition in the Middle East and a fundamental obstacle to the systematic resolution of Middle Eastern issues.

The apparent winners of the “Sixth Middle East War” are Israel and Turkey, as they have expanded their influence and control over Syria. However, this also heightens competition and friction between the two, adding a new layer of Israeli-Turkish rivalry to the traditional Israel-Arab and Israel-Iran conflicts. In the long run, this will inevitably increase the financial and resource burdens on both countries, potentially turning their regional expansion policies into a new quagmire.

The apparent losers of the “Sixth Middle East War” are Russia and Iran, as they have lost a key Middle Eastern hub where they had long exerted independent influence and deep control. For Russia, this reveals its limitations in opening a second front and highlights its declining influence as a global power. At least in the Middle East, Russia is now reduced to the role of an ordinary player, struggling to maintain a military base presence.

For Iran, the loss exposes the fatal weakness that its geopolitical ambitions far exceed its national strength. Losing the western flank of the “Shia Crescent” after over 40 years of effort, as well as the weakening of the “Axis of Resistance,” forces Iran to contract its sphere of influence back to the Tigris-Euphrates region. This severely undermines Iran’s ambitions to reconnect the Syrian corridor and extend its reach to the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, for Russia, losing Syria may not be a crippling blow. It merely represents the loss of a once-premier geopolitical and diplomatic stronghold. Russia can instead focus on the Ukraine war to preserve existing gains and seek some form of balance with the United States. Russia may even shift its diplomatic and strategic priorities toward Eurasia and the Global South to expand its influence and construct a new world order.

For Iran, the dual blow to its leadership of both the “Shia Crescent” and the “Axis of Resistance” not only constitutes a severe military and diplomatic failure but also risks domestic political fallout. Reformists and moderates may hold conservatives and hardliners accountable, further fueling public anger and dissatisfaction. This presents an unprecedented challenge to the long-standing rationality of Iran’s foreign and strategic policies.

In this sense, the ripple effects of the “Sixth Middle East War” will extend beyond Syria. They could destabilize Iran’s political system, pushing it to a difficult crossroads: should Iran continue its decades-long Islamic revolutionary policy of denying Israel’s legitimacy as a sovereign state, or should it gradually adjust its national strategy and dilute its revolutionary ideology? By adopting a more pragmatic stance, Iran could engage with the Middle East peace process, improve the overall geopolitical climate, and ultimately push Israel to withdraw from occupied Arab territories. This could lead to comprehensive regional peace, reconciliation, and cooperation, paving the way for mutual stability, development, and prosperity.

For Palestine, especially for radical forces like Hamas, the third major catastrophe, which has lasted over a year, has inflicted severe damage on the Palestinian people. Whether they can seize the opportunity presented by the Beijing reconciliation and sincerely unite under the unified leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) will be crucial. Through genuine negotiations, Palestinians could reclaim Gaza, the West Bank, and share East Jerusalem. This represents the second historical window for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the 1993 Oslo Accords and serves as a critical moment and strategic opportunity for the survival of the Palestinian nation.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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