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‘Russian agents’ controversy in Azerbaijan: Why are former ministers under fire?

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Erkin Öncan — Journalist

While not currently a major topic in the Turkish press, a debate concerning alleged “Russian agents” has been ongoing in Azerbaijan for some time. Media outlets close to the government, in particular, have been discussing a supposed group of “Russian agents.” It is even claimed that this “agent group” was the primary reason for the closure of the “Russian House,” which was officially shut down due to “lack of legal registration.”

Notably, this group allegedly includes high-ranking figures such as former Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov; Ramiz Makhdiyev, a close associate of Haydar Aliyev known as the “grey cardinal”; former Head of National Security Eldar Makhmudov; former Minister of Culture Abulfas Garayev; and former Minister of Youth and Sports Azad Rahimov. [Note: Grey Cardinal is a term used for people who have great power and influence behind the scenes, but are not very visible in public].

What happened?

Earlier this month, the pro-government Azerbaijani news agency Qafqazinfo reported that “a network serving Moscow’s interests has been identified in the country” and that “the activities of Rossotrudnichestvo (Russian House) in Baku have been suspended.”

Other pro-government media outlets quickly disseminated the news, asserting that the individuals in question received instructions from Russian intelligence and attempted to influence socio-political processes in Azerbaijan through a network of agents.

Although Qafqazinfo presented the news with the caveat, “However, the information reaching Qafqazinfo leaves no doubt that such a structure really exists,” there has been no official statement confirming the launch of any investigation into the matter.

Another press organization, however, reported the veracity of the “spy group” allegations with these statements:

“The fact that these people are no longer on duty does not mean that the relations have disappeared. There are still those who go to the representative of Russian intelligence and receive instructions, send false messages to our society, and try to create division.”

Political scientist Natig Miri, speaking to Crossmedia.az, claimed that Russia’s “spy network” strategy is not unique to Azerbaijan but is employed in “almost all embassies and consulates”:

Natig Miri said, “However, it is not limited to political elites. There are also such people among the leaders of non-governmental organizations, media outlets and political scientists. In a sense, they are trying to ‘wash Russia’s hands’. In Azerbaijan, it is imperative to identify, expose and remove such persons from their positions in the government and society.”

“The man who writes has no mind”

The accused individuals have vehemently denied the allegations. Mammadyarov responded to the claims by stating, “Some people have a stomach ache. The man who writes has no mouth.” Mammadyarov further questioned, “I was educated in Ukraine, Russia and the US. Does this mean that they should call me an agent of these countries?”

The crash of AZAL’s Embraer 190 aircraft on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, during a Baku-Grozni flight, reignited tensions between the two countries.

Azerbaijani officials had confirmed the claim that the plane was attacked by the Russian “Pantsir-S” air defense system in the incident, which resulted in the deaths of 38 people. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev for the incident, it highlighted how relations, which have fluctuated in the post-Soviet period, could escalate into open tension.

Due to historical ties and geopolitical dynamics, Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia is constantly evolving, sometimes strained but difficult to sever completely. Relations between the two countries are founded on pragmatism and a balance of interests.

However, two significant issues distinguish Azerbaijan, a former Soviet country, from its peers: Russia’s position in the Karabakh Crisis and relations with Israel.

In certain respects, the same alignment found in every former Soviet country also applies to Azerbaijan. A significant portion of the nationalist and liberal sectors in Azerbaijan, similar to Georgia and Ukraine, are inclined to shed the Soviet past and establish closer ties with the West. This makes it easier for these forces to align with Western-backed political groups.

On the other hand, the Karabakh crisis, which has persisted since the 1990s and was “recently” resolved in Azerbaijan’s favor, has resulted in a prolonged Russian military presence in the region. Although the Azerbaijani government has not voiced any serious objections to Russia’s political and military presence, this presence has consistently been a source of unease for the government’s electoral base, namely the nationalist/conservative segments of the country.

In other words, regarding Russian relations, the Azerbaijani government has consistently allowed its electorate and affiliated media outlets to express sentiments that it cannot officially voice due to its current balancing strategy. This serves the dual purpose of appeasing domestic politics and sending an unofficial message. This dichotomy is often observable in Turkey’s foreign policy as well.

Relations with Israel

Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel, or rather, Israel’s interest in Azerbaijan, is naturally linked to Azerbaijan’s geographical location in the South Caucasus, its proximity to Russia and Iran, and its oil reserves.

The fact that Azerbaijan represents, to put it mildly, “an alternative” to Russia and Iran in the region is a well-known fact, even if it is not often explicitly stated.

However, this relationship does not entirely sever Baku’s dependence on Russia, even though it irritates Moscow and Tehran. In the first six months of 2024, the volume of trade between the two countries more than doubled, increasing 2.5 times to exceed $8.3 billion.

Azerbaijan’s share in foreign trade volume with Russia in 2024 is 10.1%, its share in exports is 4.4%, its share in exports of non-oil/gas products is 34.6%, and its share in imports is 17.2%.

While the media discussed “Russian agents” in Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, on February 11, approved an agreement signed in late 2024 to expand the North-South corridor linking Iran and Russia through Azerbaijan. The 2024 bilateral agreement provides for the modernization of road and rail infrastructure to accommodate growing trade volumes.

In another meeting held three days ago in the Iranian capital, Tehran, Azerbaijani, Russian, and Iranian officials reportedly agreed on a plan to construct the Rasht-Astara railway on Iranian territory.

Russian companies remain active in Azerbaijan’s energy and infrastructure projects, while Baku provides Moscow with a transit corridor for the transportation of gas and oil. Simultaneously, however, Azerbaijan aims to reduce its dependence on Russia by developing alternative routes through projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline.

From the perspective of both Russia and Azerbaijan, the current relationship is characterized by a partnership of interests. Considering the figures, it can be inferred that the discussions regarding “Russian influence” in Azerbaijan are primarily directed at domestic public opinion rather than Russia for the time being, and that the “Russian agent” accusations against senior officials reflect internal political calculations.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Diplomacy

Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Diplomacy

Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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