Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking at the Primakov Readings international forum, stated that the shifting approaches of Western leaders regarding Ukraine reflect the failure of their initial plans.

Lavrov noted that Moscow will wait for proposals from the West to mend relations, while emphasizing that it is still too early to make definitive comments on the permanence of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

The West’s slogans have evolved from ‘strategic defeat’ to unconditional ceasefire

Lavrov recalled that at the beginning of the military conflict, the West was “hysterically shouting” about the need to inflict a “strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield.”

He noted that this slogan eventually changed to phrases like “Russia must not win in Ukraine,” and summarized the current situation as follows:

“Now, they are demanding, requesting, and even begging for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire. This is the very thing that Volodymyr Zelenskyy categorically rejected a few years ago when he was living and working under the banner of a strategic defeat on the battlefield.”

The minister observed that the fiasco of the West’s strategy and tactics is evident, but “Europe is still trying.”

Europe seeks negotiations

In May, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that European countries wish to be represented in potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul, following a proposed 30-day ceasefire by Kyiv and its allies.

Barrot stated that if Moscow refuses to cease fire, they expect the US and the European Union to increase pressure on Russia and impose extensive sanctions.

In contrast, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly avoided new anti-Russian sanctions, explaining that he did not want to jeopardize peace talks he believed were close to an agreement.

On June 20, following comments from Senator Lindsey Graham during his visit to Ukraine about his intention to advance a bill imposing a 500% secondary tariff on Russian energy sources, Trump warned that such statements should be chosen more carefully.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on June 10 that there was no common ground for future agreements with Europe. Peskov attributed this to Europe being “focused on war for now” and showing no signs of seeking common ground with Russia.

‘Let them come with proposals when they realize their mistakes’

Lavrov also expressed that Russia expects proposals from Western countries to rebuild relations once the current “international arrogance” subsides.

Arguing that many countries have severed ties with Russia to the detriment of their own people, suffering enormous financial and reputational losses, Lavrov stated, “Let them come to us when they realize their mistakes and present their proposals, and we will decide based on our own interests.”

‘Too early to speak on the Iran-Israel ceasefire’

Addressing developments in the Middle East, Lavrov said it would be premature at this stage to draw final conclusions about the stability of the ceasefire reached between Iran and Israel.

Citing reports that the US persuaded Israel to agree to the ceasefire, with Qatar playing a similar role in negotiations with Tehran, Lavrov highlighted that news of rocket attacks from both sides continued to emerge after the ceasefire was declared.

“It is very difficult to form a complete picture of what is happening right now; the information is fragmented. We should not make hasty assessments,” Lavrov remarked.

The minister affirmed that Moscow supports any steps aimed at de-escalation and hopes for a long-term ceasefire, adding, “But we are for peace.”

On June 24, at 08:08 Turkish time, US President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel had come into effect.

Before this announcement, Trump had stated that the parties had reached a “full agreement for a full ceasefire.” Iranian media also confirmed the ceasefire had taken effect.

However, at 10:58 Israel time, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement by launching two ballistic missiles.

Katz declared that he had instructed the Israeli army to “respond decisively to Iran’s ceasefire violation with intense strikes on regime targets in the heart of Tehran.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, described the attacks on Iran as “unprovoked aggression with no justification or basis.” In response, Araghchi thanked Russia for its condemnation, stating that the United States and Israel are responsible for the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

According to a statement from the Kremlin, Putin emphasized that Moscow is making efforts to assist the Iranian people. “We have long-standing, good, and reliable relations with Iran,” Putin remarked during the meeting.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi expressed his gratitude to Russia “for its resolute condemnation of the actions of Israel and the US.” Stating that Russia is “on the right side,” Araghchi attributed the escalation of tensions in the Middle East to the actions of the US and Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities. He noted that the Tehran administration considers the actions of the US and Israel on Iranian territory to be illegitimate, and therefore, Iran has the right to defend itself.

Araghchi also highlighted that Russia has always been a partner for Iran in the field of peaceful nuclear energy. He added that Moscow has played a positive role in negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.

During the meeting, Putin conveyed his best wishes to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Araghchi reciprocated with similar wishes on behalf of the Iranian leadership.

The Iran-Israel conflict escalated on June 13 when Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting Tehran to initiate retaliatory strikes. On June 22, the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Trump warned that new attacks would follow if Tehran did not surrender.

Following the attacks, Russia, China, and Pakistan submitted a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council condemning the aggression against Iran.

On June 20, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met in Geneva with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Although the parties agreed to continue dialogue after the meeting, media reports indicated that no concrete results emerged from the discussions.

A report titled The Future of the World Order, presented at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), emphasized that the world is undergoing a deep and prolonged crisis, fundamentally altering the existing order.

Experts noted that while risks like climate change were previously at the forefront, the agenda for the past two years has been dominated by wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, which have reached a new dimension due to the actions of the US.

Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist at VEB, stated during a session titled “The Future of the World Order: Between Conflict and Cooperation,” “It is a well-known fact that the world is in a crisis. The real question is how long this crisis has been going on and how much longer it will last.”

Boris Titov, the Presidential Special Representative for Relations with International Organizations to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals, described the current situation not as a tactical crisis like the one in 2014–2015, but as a global one. “In our view, we are witnessing a change of an era, a global transformation of the development model,” he remarked.

The new face of crisis: War and geopolitical risks

Chief Economist Klepach highlighted that 2024 has seen the most intense military conflicts of the last 60 years, adding that 2025 is likely to be similar. He also pointed out that alongside global issues, problems directly affecting human health, such as clean water scarcity and air and food pollution, have become prominent.

“What is happening in the world, particularly in African and Asian countries, is a truly massive challenge. These are issues of social paralysis, poverty, migration, food security, and demographics,” Klepach added.

He noted that the number of people suffering from hunger worldwide began to rise again after 2020, and the coronavirus pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of healthcare systems.

Klepach stressed that the report’s purpose is not merely to list problems but also to identify “windows of opportunity and the need for solutions.” The report seeks ways to establish a new system of international security and trust, new international economic relations, and technological partnerships.

‘The business world has adapted to sanctions’

Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), mentioned that over 200 company representatives were interviewed during the report’s preparation, and most of them look to the future with confidence.

According to Shokhin, the business community has grown accustomed to the pressure of sanctions and tight monetary policy. He said that entrepreneurs have weathered many crises, and every crisis presents an opportunity for growth.

The report identifies the instability of the global financial system as the most significant challenge for companies. Shokhin recalled that the Russian business community faced restrictions on cross-border payments in 2022 and noted that various tools have been developed to overcome this problem.

He argued that the failure to create the “BRICS Pay” platform during Russia’s BRICS presidency was not a defeat.

Shokhin asserted that globalization continues to exist, albeit in an “imperialist” rather than a liberal form. “Leading countries decide for themselves how to control markets and spheres of influence,” he said.

The struggle for hierarchy in a multipolar order

Dmitry Belousov from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP) stated that Russia is facing fundamental restrictions. He noted that while the country successfully navigated the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions amounting to an economic war, it now confronts the challenge of a stagnant workforce.

Belousov highlighted Russia’s effectiveness in collaboration, citing “the African” Pushkin and “the Dane” Dal as examples.

Fyodor Voytolovsky, Director of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, argued that the emerging multipolar world order is, in many ways, suitable for Russia as a global player.

“However, we must understand that this is not a flat structure. A struggle for the hierarchy of this multipolar world order is currently underway at both global and regional levels,” Voytolovsky said.

According to Voytolovsky, there are trends toward establishing new models of mutual dependence on one hand, while on the other, established actors, particularly the US and its allies, are making a concerted effort to maintain and strengthen their positions. He also added that countries like China and India are competing for status in this new model.