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AUKUS deal under scrutiny as US reconsiders its commitment

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The Pentagon has initiated a review of the AUKUS submarine agreement, which was signed with the United Kingdom and Australia in 2021.

According to six sources familiar with the matter who spoke to the Financial Times, the review process, which will determine whether the US should cancel the project, is being led by Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official who has previously expressed skepticism about AUKUS.

The review has sparked concern in London and Canberra.

Some critics and experts have argued that the AUKUS deal could undermine US national security, as the navy is already struggling to produce enough American submarines to counter China’s growing naval power.

Australia and the UK plan to jointly produce a new class of attack submarines, named SSN-Aukus, which are scheduled to enter service in the early 2040s. However, the US has committed to selling Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032 to bridge the gap as its current fleet is retired. This commitment would almost certainly be voided if the US were to withdraw from AUKUS.

Last year, Colby wrote on X that he was skeptical of AUKUS, stating it would be “insane” for the US to reduce its number of nuclear-powered attack submarines, known as SSNs, in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

In March, Colby said it would be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but warned of a “very real threat of conflict in the coming years” and that US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” for defending Taiwan.

Skeptics of the nuclear technology-sharing agreement have also questioned whether the US should help Australia acquire submarines without a firm commitment to use them in a potential war with China.

Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s deputy secretary of state and an American architect of AUKUS, emphasized last year the importance of Australia having SSNs that could work closely with the US in a conflict over Taiwan. Canberra, however, has not linked its need for these vessels to a potential conflict over Taiwan.

This review comes at a time of growing anxiety among US allies about the potential policies of a new Trump administration. Colby has told the UK and other European allies to focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce their activities in the Indo-Pacific.

A source close to the AUKUS discussions said Canberra and London were “incredibly worried” about the review of the agreement.

“AUKUS is the most significant military and strategic initiative between the US, Australia, and the UK in generations,” Campbell told the Financial Times.

“Efforts to enhance coordination, defense spending, and common objectives should be welcomed. Any bureaucratic attempt to undermine AUKUS would create a crisis of confidence among our closest security and political partners,” he added.

Pressure to increase defense spending

The Pentagon has been pressuring Australia to increase its defense spending. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called on Canberra this month to raise its spending from 2% to 3.5% of its GDP. In response, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated, “We will determine our own defense policy.”

Charles Edel, an Australia expert at the CSIS think tank in Washington, noted, “Australia’s defense spending is increasing gradually, but not as quickly as that of other democratic states, and it is not at a level sufficient to cover the costs of either AUKUS or its current conventional forces.”

John Lee, an Australian defense expert at the Hudson Institute, said the pressure on Canberra is mounting as the US focuses on deterring China from attacking Taiwan within this decade. Lee added that if Australia does not increase its defense spending to 3% of its GDP, its navy will rapidly weaken.

“This would be unacceptable for a Trump administration,” Lee stated. “If Australia continues on this path, it is likely that a Trump administration would freeze or cancel Pillar 1 of AUKUS [the part related to submarines] to compel Australia to increase its military spending within the next five years.”

America First

A source close to the review said it was unclear whether Colby was acting alone or as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration. “The general consensus is that the former is true, but the uncertainty has confused Congress, other government departments, and Australia,” the source said.

A Pentagon spokesperson stated that the department is reviewing AUKUS “to ensure this initiative from the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America First’ agenda.” The spokesperson added that Hegseth has “made it clear he intends for the department of [defense] to focus primarily on the Indo-Pacific region.”

Several people familiar with the matter said the review would last 30 days, though the spokesperson declined to comment on the timeline. “Any changes to the administration’s approach to AUKUS will be announced through official channels when appropriate,” they said.

A British government official said the UK was aware of the review. “This is sensible for a new administration,” the official noted, adding that the Labour government is also reviewing AUKUS.

“We have reiterated the strategic importance of the UK-US relationship, announced additional defense spending, and confirmed our commitment to AUKUS,” the official added.

The Australian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

The AUKUS agreement and China’s reaction

The AUKUS agreement, aimed at helping Australia build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines through technology transfer from the US and the UK, was signed on September 16, 2021.

Under the security pact, named from an acronym of the three countries’ names, at least eight nuclear-powered submarines will be built at shipyards in Adelaide, the capital of South Australia.

The agreement is widely seen as a pact to counterbalance China’s military power in the region.

China has reacted strongly to the deal, emphasizing that the alliance will undermine regional peace and stability, as well as international efforts toward nuclear non-proliferation.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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