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‘Arab world’ without Syria on horizontal course

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There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.

Middle East

Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say

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Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.

Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.

Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.

According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.

The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:

“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”

Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.

Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.

The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.

Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.

The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.

However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.

Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.

The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:

“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”

Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.

The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.

Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.

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Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes

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Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.

According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.

The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.

Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.

A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.

The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:

“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”

Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.

The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.

An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:

“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”

Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.

Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.

In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”

This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.

The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.

During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.

The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.

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Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds

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The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.

Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.

To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.

In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.

The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.

“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.

Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.

Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.

Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.

Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.

In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.

The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.

Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.

Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.

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