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‘Arab world’ without Syria on horizontal course

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There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Middle East

Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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Middle East

US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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