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‘Arab world’ without Syria on horizontal course

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There are major leading shares in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Such as Turkish Airlines and Ereğli Demir Çelik. If these stocks gain value and move upwards, all shares will be affected positively. In market terms, it becomes “green”. It may be useful to use this analogy while watching the course of the Middle East. The positive or negative movements of certain countries determine whether the field will be “blood red” or “spring green”.

Syria’s inability to attend the Arab League summit in Algeria on 1-2 November under the pump of USA, the Gulf and Israel, shows that balances are difficult to change from red to green. If the intense effort of Algeria towards the return of Damascus to the Arab League had not been fruitless, we could have easily interpreted that the green light was given for lasting peace in the Middle East. Resistance to Syria’s return to the Arab League also proves the stubbornness of conflict dynamics in the region.

Is the Middle East diplomacy over?

Syrian expansion was a complementary and follow-up chain of Turkiye’s efforts over the last two years to re-establish relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Damascus responded to the close messages from Turkiye coming from superior rank by highlighting the condition of “withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria”. Early negotiations by intelligence to establish diplomatic relations have also failed. According to a source from the Baas Party in Syria, Damascus’s view is as follows: “The war has been going on for over ten years. Syria is in no hurry, Damascus does not want to give credit to the Erdogan administration during the election process. Turkiye needs to take confidence-building steps to re-establish relations. ”

Turkiye’s adopting a different from Davutoglu’s towards the Middle East was of course welcomed in Arab capitals. However, all parties agree that the restoration will take time according to the new situation, as relations do not stay where they are broken down. For example, it seems that the process initiated with Egypt decelerated as Cairo slowed down.  Egyptian diplomats have “perseverance of a camel” as a friend of mine who was orient to the region says, and Cairo is waiting for the right time to sit at the table at its best.

In summary, Ankara’s attempt to reconcile alone is not enough to repair the bonds from where they were torn. The most concrete parameter of the “process” that needs to pass for building trust is the elections. The capitals in which Damascus, Cairo, Riyadh and Ankara had problems in the days of “precious loneliness” want to see the results”.

Is the United States leaving the region?

It is reported that the main arm wrestling will be in Asia-Pacific and that the United States will keep its hands off the Middle East and focus more on besieging China since the Obama era. However, this does not mean that the United States, which has reduced its military power in the region, has totally disappeared from the Middle East. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the environmental agenda spread over time, and views that trivialized fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas were put aside.

Controlling and managing the world’s oil supply remains important for the continuation of the global leadership claim for Washington. The Middle East will continue to dominate Washington as a field of competition with oil and gas producer Russia and largest energy importer China. It is also possible to read the oil supply quarrel between Saudi Arabia abd United States, Riyadh’s slow-pace approach to Beijing and its including BRICS membership to its agenda.

Although the US’s capacity to set up games and determine the outcome has decreased in the Middle East, its ability to prevent and create chaos remains as it is. With a small number of forces, it continues to occupy one-third of Syrian territory. “Land power” is the Pentagon’s defined goal of legalizing the YPG and making it a voice in the future of Syria. This account has been blocked for the time being with the actual intervention of the TAF and the active struggle of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces. The United States’ continued suppression of Syria’s return to the Arab League is also behind its failure to get the YPG to accept Damascus.

Israeli radar also shows Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s renewed embrace with Hamas. Damascus is not compromising its “axis of resistance” policy. He is aware that the cost of his stance has delayed his official return to the Arab world. The new page with Hamas proves its effectiveness in the field, even though Damascus could not return to the Arab League at the risk of the US and Israel’s reaction.

At the end of January, the patrol of Russian planes and Syrian planes over the Golan was a serious warning to Israel. Tel Aviv, which received the message, did not give its sophisticated air defense weapons to Kiev despite all the pressure. The international environment for the normalization of Syria has not yet become stable.

Wait and see period

When we think of Turkiye by leaving it out, it can be said that there is a “wait and see” situation among the Arab states about Syria. The reason why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates have still not approved the return of Syria to the Arab League is mostly the uncertainty and concerns in global security situation.

The Arab world has difficult tasks such as predicting the next president of the United States, making an accurate analysis of what might happen in that process, and identifying the side that will win in the Russia-Ukraine war without error. A miscalculation in these matters may cause the gremlins that are merely held in the bottle to escape into the streets.

Covid-19, the risk of economic recession, the potential of terrorist cells, forces Arab states to think a lot before taking actions. It is also unrealistic to expect Egypt, whose economy is fragile and difficult to solve the bread problem, to behave without taking care of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which has lagged behind while taking steps in diplomacy. The art of the period is to walk in balance. Cairo also has to make a new page with Damascus, at least in front of the cameras, without excluding Riyadh and the Gulf. Although the Saudi Intelligence Chief came to Damascus last May to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it is not so easy to repair a broken vase.

Russia’s efforts to turn Syria into the Arab League have also failed as the Ukrainian war remains uncertain. Russia increased its weight in the Middle East with its involvement in Syria in 2015. This weight is now being measured again in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s success or failure on the Ukrainian front is carefully monitored in the region’s capitals. Recently, my Russian interlocutor, who has been in the Middle East for many years, asked the question “What is Russia’s post-Ukraine Syria strategy?” and said: “There is nothing new. Ukraine is a priority, not Syria. Right now, everything is about Ukraine, and the Syrian strategy is about Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine will directly affect the Middle East. ”

The main difference between the central states that want to stay in balance between Russia and the West without choosing in the Arab League and the states that prefer strategic cooperation with Russia and the West, such as Sudan and Syria, is one of the most important reasons of fractions. Relations with Israel, the outlook on Abraham’s agreements, and relations with Iran can be listed as major issues of disagreement. The Arab League, which has not been an effective sanction force since its inception, does not expect a summit to melt the separated state interests in one general Arab pot and stand out as an effective organization. It is an idea that pushes the boundaries of real politics to gather the generations of states stretching from Morocco and Mauritania on the Atlantic coast to the Persian Gulf around a single ideal and to establish an “Arab Turan”. Arab states will stand side by side but direct their actions with different geopolitical and political pressures.

From where we started, the Arab world, which is unable to heartily embrace Syria, is “on a horizontal course” in market terms. Efforts are being made to prevent the pointer from turning red again, as in the Arab Spring period.

Middle East

Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks

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Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.

According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.

The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.

The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.

Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.

They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.

Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”

Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.

After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.

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Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts

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The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.

Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.

Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.

The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.

The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.

Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.

Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.

Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.

Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.

During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.

The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.

On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.

Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.

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Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets

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BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.

The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.

The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.

Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.

According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.

The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.

US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.

The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.

However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.

A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”

The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.

The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.

However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.

Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.

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