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As the U.S. expands its bases, will the Philippines be able to maintain a balance with China?

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The Philippines granted the United States expanded access to its military bases on Thursday.

The defense ministries of both countries announced Washington would be granted access to four more regions under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The agreement was reached during a visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who visited South Korea earlier this year to bolster deployment of advanced weapons such as fighter jets and bombers to the Korean Peninsula, also to deploy more military forces and weapons in the Philippines.

In a joint announcement, the Philippines and the United States agreed to accelerate the full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which aims to support combined training, exercises, and interoperability between the two countries.

As part of the agreement, the United States has allocated $82 million for infrastructure improvements at five existing EDCA sites and has expanded its military presence to four new regions in “strategic areas of the country,” according to the statement.

New bases target China

The statement did not specify where the new areas would be. The former Philippine military chief told Reuters that the United States had previously requested access to bases on the island of Palawan, which overlooks the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and the northern land mass of Luzon, the Philippines’ closest region to Taiwan.

Philippine military officials and defense experts said some government officials were concerned that news about these locations would anger China.

According to an analysis published in the Global Times, Luzon and Palawan are very close to the Taiwanese island of Nansha, respectively, and “the intention of targeting China could not be more obvious.”

More recently, U.S. forces have intensified and expanded joint training focusing on combat readiness and disaster response with Filipino troops on the nation’s west coast, which faces the South China Sea, and in its northern Luzon region.

Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)

The EDCA allows U.S. access to Philippine military bases for joint training, pre-positioning of equipment and the building of facilities such as runways, fuel storage and military housing, but not for a permanent presence.

Austin said: “This is not about permanent basing, but it is a big deal, it is a really big deal… This is an opportunity to increase our effectiveness, increase interoperability.”

The Philippines was home to two largest U.S. Navy and Air Force bases outside of the American mainland. However, after the Philippine Senate refused to extend the use of the bases, they were closed in the early 1990s.

Although American forces returned for large-scale combat exercises with Filipino troops under a 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement, they could not obtain a base. The Philippine Constitution forbids the permanent establishment of foreign troops and their involvement in local combat.

The 2014 EDCA allowed U.S. forces to pre-position equipment and return forces in Philippine military bases, but Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, had suspended the practice to maintain closer ties with China.

After Marcos was elected president, Joe Biden was the first foreign leader to call to congratulate Marcos, and senior Washington officials visited the Philippines regularly.

Manila’s balance policy

Washington is keen to expand its security options in the Philippines against China, while Manila aims to strengthen its defenses against disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea and a possible escalation in the Taiwan Strait.

A senior White House official told the Financial Times the initiative was “part of their strategic efforts across the region,” stressing that it was very important to Biden.

The Philippines sees the United States as a crucial counterweight to China in the region, and Washington has pledged to come to the defense of the Philippines if Filipino forces, ships, or aircraft come under attack in the contested waters.

On the other hand, the Philippines is trying to pursue a policy of not taking sides between China, its largest trading partner, and the United States. Philippine President Marcos’ visit to China last month was an indication that Manila is seeking to maintain ties with Beijing. Marcos also reiterated his commitment to the “one China” policy in a recent private interview with the Financial Times.

That’s why Philippine officials insisted ahead of Austin’s visit that military cooperation with the United States “does not target any third party.”

The Philippines is critical to Washington

However, the revival of the defense relationship with Washington by Philippine President Marcos could change this balance policy. The U.S. is using the same stick on the Philippines that it uses on the Asia-Pacific countries – the “China threat”.

The Biden administration is pushing the idea that if Beijing challenges the Philippines’ control over the disputed islands in the South China Sea or attacks Taiwan, the Philippines will be at risk of becoming part of the battlefield.

In this context, Austin said during the visit that the United States and the Philippines are “committed to strengthening their mutual capacities to resist armed attack” and stressed that these defensive efforts are important against China’s influence on the South China Sea.

Lisa Curtis, an Indo-Pacific expert at the Washington-based CNAS think tank, also stressed that the Philippines’ position is critical to the entire U.S. alliance system in the Indo-Pacific. In the event of a dispute over Taiwan, Washington would certainly see Manila as a staging ground for logistical support and U.S. forces, Curtis said.

Meanwhile, the Philippine president is reportedly traveling to Japan next week to expand security and trade cooperation between Manila and Tokyo.

Beijing has voiced concerns about Marcos’ visit to Japan, according to two people familiar with the discussions, highlighting the challenge the Philippines faces in trying to balance its economic interests with China and its relations with the United States and its allies.

The extent to which the Philippines can successfully maintain the balance policy in the face of the attack attempt that the U.S. and NATO have pursued so far in the Asia-Pacific through the “Chinese threat” discourse remains a question.

ASIA

China’s AsiaInfo expands with DeepSeek-powered AI

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China’s largest telecom software infrastructure provider says that working with artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek is helping the company develop its own AI capabilities, which it will use to expand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

AsiaInfo Technologies CTO Ouyang Ye said in an exclusive interview with Nikkei Asia that the company’s collaboration with DeepSeek began well before it rose to global prominence earlier this year with a low-cost approach to developing AI models.

Ouyang said that AsiaInfo also works closely with other top-tier Chinese large language models (LLMs) such as Alibaba Cloud’s Tongyi Qianwen and ByteDance’s Doubao, but that the rise of the open-source DeepSeek model is what facilitates and accelerates the deployment of the company’s various AI solutions.

“Our telecom infrastructure software solutions for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom fully support DeepSeek’s model,” said Ouyang, referring to the country’s three major telecom providers. He said that his company was the first in the industry to embed and fully support DeepSeek.

According to research by AsiaInfo and Tsinghua University, DeepSeek’s model performs well in specialized technical areas such as monitoring network failures and optimizing wireless communication performance.

The CTO said that, for example, China Unicom’s Guangdong subsidiary used AsiaInfo’s DeepSeek-enhanced solutions in February to optimize service efficiency. This initiative reduced training costs by 75%, enhanced AI assistant capabilities, accelerated response times by 200%, and increased the efficiency of human-machine collaboration by 40%.

Hong Kong-based AsiaInfo, a leading telecom software infrastructure solutions provider, competes with US-based Amdocs, India’s Infosys, and Poland’s Comarch. Some network equipment makers like Huawei, HPE, Cisco, and Nokia also provide some software services.

In addition to infrastructure software, AsiaInfo also provides business and operations support systems, such as network monitoring software and customer and billing management, including processing telecom billing information for China’s 1.4 billion population.

AsiaInfo is also the largest software provider for China’s 5G private networks, serving the country’s leading energy providers and steelmakers, such as China Nuclear Group and Shougang Group, as well as miners and wind farm operators. Private networks are set up by businesses or organizations to provide on-site connectivity to facilitate services like factory automation.

Ouyang is optimistic that AsiaInfo can leverage AI to boost its overseas expansion, and that 5G private networks are expected to be a significant growth driver in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. The majority of AsiaInfo’s business is in China, and going overseas is one of the company’s core strategies for growth.

“This year, the growth potential in the overseas market is quite large, especially in the fields of mines, ports, and energy, where we have more specific domain expertise,” the senior executive said.

AsiaInfo Chairman and CEO Edward Tian previously stated that the traditional telecom market and spending have slowed in 2024, but the adoption of AI and LLMs has become a key growth driver for the company as customers begin to adopt these technologies in their services.

AsiaInfo says its software can run on servers and other hardware from different companies, including Nvidia, Huawei, and Hygon.

While leading Chinese tech companies and government agencies are adopting DeepSeek, some governments, such as Italy, Australia, Canada, and South Korea, are banning its use on official devices.

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China unveils ‘most comprehensive’ plan in 40 years to boost consumption

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China has unveiled a new plan to stimulate domestic consumption, called the “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption,” as it grapples with weak confidence and deflationary pressures.

The 30-point plan, issued by the General Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the General Office of the State Council, aims to “strongly promote consumption, revitalize domestic demand as a whole, and enhance spending power by increasing earnings and reducing financial burdens.”

This plan supports President Xi Jinping’s directive from late last year, instructing policymakers to focus on boosting domestic demand.

Analysts have described China’s newly announced consumption action plan as the most comprehensive policy package the country has released in over four decades to boost consumer spending.

The plan from the State Council, China’s cabinet, will focus on increasing incomes, stabilizing real estate and stock markets, improving the consumption environment, and enhancing healthcare and pension services. Through this plan, the Chinese economy seeks to transition to a consumption-driven growth model.

News of the “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” invigorated stock markets on Monday.

The plan announcement, made late Sunday, followed the “Two Sessions” in Beijing last week, where legislators re-emphasized consumption as a top priority.

In China, domestic spending has remained weak since the end of Covid-19 lockdowns over two years ago, as households have been cautious about spending. Consumer prices fell into deflation in February, although figures were positively impacted by the New Year holiday.

The slowdown in China’s vast real estate sector has also renewed calls from economists to bolster domestic demand.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that retail sales rose 4% year-on-year in January and February, surpassing December’s 3.7% increase and aligning with forecasts from a Reuters poll of analysts.

In September, policymakers announced a long-awaited package to support the economy, but the measures largely focused on stock markets, disappointing investors.

The new plan, comprising eight main sections, addresses factors such as income growth, enhancing the quality-of-service consumption, improving large-scale consumption, and improving the consumption environment simultaneously.

It includes a commitment to raising the minimum wage, strengthening support for education, and establishing a subsidy system for childcare—a particularly pressing issue as China’s population has declined for three consecutive years.

Shi Lei, an economics professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, said, “This is the most comprehensive directive to promote consumption since China’s reform and opening up [in the late 1970s],” adding, “According to the policy, authorities will promote the reasonable growth of employees’ incomes by increasing employment, raising the minimum wage, and accelerating the implementation of the paid annual leave system.”

Speaking to the South China Morning Post, Shi noted, “In the past, policymakers often ignored income growth [when discussing ways to boost spending].” He added, “In fact, if consumers have money, they don’t need your encouragement to spend, and if they don’t have money, such encouragement won’t work.”

Lynn Song, ING’s Greater China chief economist, stated that the plan “focuses significantly on boosting household consumption capacity and willingness” and, if implemented correctly, “could help China’s economic transition towards a consumption-driven growth model.”

“The direction looks positive, but implementation is everything. It is not certain that these measures will be enough to restore consumer confidence to healthy levels,” Song wrote, also noting that the administration’s focus on boosting consumption, combined with a relatively low base last year, means that China’s consumption growth could reach a mid-single-digit growth rate in 2025.

Data released on Monday also showed that industrial production increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, slowing from 6.2% in December but exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 5.3% increase.

The new package will also promote “inbound” consumption. Beijing has granted visa-free travel to dozens of countries in the past year to revitalize inbound tourism post-pandemic.

It also highlights specific tourism sectors such as “snow and ice.” China has built several indoor ski resorts in recent years, including the world’s largest, which opened in Shanghai in September.

According to the plan, China will also broaden real estate income channels with measures to stabilize the stock market and develop more bond products suitable for individual investors.

The plan calls for exploring ways to unlock the value of homes legally owned by farmers through rental arrangements, equity participation, and cooperative models.

Notably, in addition to traditional consumption sectors such as housing and automobiles, it emphasizes emerging categories such as AI-powered products and the low-altitude economy.

It also states that new consumption sectors with high growth rates will be created by accelerating the development and application of new technologies and products such as autonomous driving, smart wearable products, ultra-high-definition video, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and additive manufacturing, more commonly known as 3D printing.

Xu Chenggang, a senior research fellow at the Stanford University Center on China’s Economy and Institutions, said that Beijing’s shift towards consumption indicates official recognition that the economic situation is “serious.”

Zou Yunhan, a researcher at the State Information Center, also said that consumption is playing an increasingly key role in boosting economic growth, but some challenges still persist in the quest to further unleash consumer potential.

Looking ahead, Zou called for joint efforts from all sectors to ensure the full implementation and effectiveness of the action plan.

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Gandhapur opposes Afghans forcible evacuation, advocates for their citizenship

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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sardar Ali Amin Khan Gandhapur’s reservations against federal government’s decision pertained to forcible evacuation of illegal immigrants earned hearts of war affected Afghans but it likely to fuel hardships for the federal government especially for “powerful military establishment.” For a long time the powerful military establishment has been facing failure after failure in its main objectives, which is –forcing Afghans to toe its lines on both internal and external policies.

He made it clear that he wants repatriation of Afghans with honour and dignity, which is not only in the interests of Pakhtoons but also is in the benefits of the country. All these people remained here for a long time and had made contributions in different fields of life and deepened relations with local people.

Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandhapur in a hurriedly called press conference while highlighting achievements and performances of his one year government has held the federal government responsible for all sorts of politico-economic and security issues, saying “ Central illegitimate regime has focused all attention on eliminating one party-PTI.” Adding further, “we, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated steps for settling issues with Afghanistan, (banned TTP), economic hardships of the province, resolving long standing issues of financial arrears and others- but the federal government is reluctant to play its due role.”

Regarding evacuation of illegal immigrants, especially people from war-ravaged Afghanistan, Ali Amin Gandhapur has out rightly denounced the decision, terming it “violation of basic human rights.” He observed, “already Afghans are unhappy due to wrong and unrealistic policies of the high-ups or “influential military establishment and this act of forcibly deportation would further damage image of the country,” He recalled that earlier (in 2023) Pakistan had sent back (deported) lakhs of people, which caused hardships to Taliban government. At the moment, the Afghanistan government is in lack of infrastructures, resources and others, therefore, the federal government must review this decision.

Gandhapur said Afghans deserve Pakistani nationalities as almost all of its populace born and grown here and they are qualifying due criteria

Even Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandhapur has criticized the federal government for making more strict and hard the citizenship law, saying it is more hard compared to US, European and other developed countries. “Afghans deserve Pakistani nationalities as almost all of its populace born and grown here and they are qualifying due criteria.” Gandhapur believes that enmity or confrontation with Afghanistan is not in benefit of Pakistan, especially for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and its people. He in this respect also showed severe concern over prolonged closure of Torkham which ultimately affected no other than people from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Regarding Khyber Pakhtunkhwa initiatives for dialogues with Emirate Islami Afghanistan on the issue of militancy ( banned TTP), bilateral relations and others, Chief Minister Gandha Pur said, “we have  already sent Terms Of References (TORs) to federal government but it didn’t responding.” “ Solution to all such issues, especially violence and terror rests in talks and dialogues,” he remarked and recalled the era of Imran Khan from 2018 till 2023, which remained very peaceful compared to present days and past.” He questioned outcomes of military operations against terror and militancy saying all such acts and actions lead to further complications and intensifying of the situation.

Pakistan since September 2023 last worked on evacuation of Afghans lacking what the authorities called lacking documents validating their stay. So far over 800,000 people have been sent back to Afghanistan whereas now all those who are in possession of Afghan Citizen Cards ( ACC’s- issued by Pakistan ) have been directed to leave by March 31st 2025 otherwise after that they will be picked and later will be deported to Afghanistan. The Afghans who are in possession of Proof Of Registration ( POR issued to them jointly by UNHCR and Pakistan through its NADRA) are allowed to remain till June 30th 2025.

Data reveal that so far 2.6 million Afghans are residing in Pakistan. According to UNHCR, the strength of Afghans with possession of POR cards are 13,44,584 and ACC are 9,98,425. It further informs that after the empowering of Taliban in August 2021, 490,000 people slipped into Pakistan and majority of them have made routes towards western world but still 210,000 of them are staying in Islamabad and other main cities.

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