Asia
Kabul will survive
It is hard to pin a date on Kabul’s founding. Additionally, Kabul’s area and size have expanded and contracted numerous times. While today, geographically speaking, Kabul is a small province in central-eastern Afghanistan, in the Mughal Emperor Zaheer-ud-Din Babur’s day, Kabul stretched from the Hindukush mountains to the Indus River, and from Kashmir to Khurasan.
South of the Hindukush, for centuries the ancient city of Bagram, built on the banks of the Panjsher River, was the preeminent political, economic, cultural, and military center of the region. The rise to prominence of Kabul, around a millennium ago, was parallel to the decline of Bagram. Built on the banks of the Kabul River, Kabul lay from southwest to northeast, in the direction of the river.
Given Kabul’s location at a crossroads, the city was destined to achieve greatness. The overland commerce, as well as conquest, routes between India and China, and India and Persia ran through Kabul, which quickly became a major commercial center. The first time ever that India and China made contact with each other was through the overland route that ran over the Hindukush, and by extension through Kabul.
Kabul, a diverse commercial hub with pleasant climates
Babur—in his memoir, the Baburnama—says: ‘As the entrepot between Hindustan and Khurasan, this province [Kabul] is an excellent mercantile center. Merchants who go to Cathay and Anatolia do no greater business. Every year seven, eight, or ten thousand horses come to Kabul.’
Babur further adds that, ‘From Hindustan, caravans of ten, fifteen, twenty thousand pack animals bring slaves, textiles, rock, sugar, refined sugar, and spices. Many Kabul merchants would not be satisfied with a 300 to 400 percent profit. Goods from Khurasan, Iraq, Anatolia, and China can be found in Kabul, which is the principal depot for Hindustan.
Amongst the different ethnic groups that lived in Kabul, Babur names the following: Turks, Aymaques, Arabs, Pashais, Parachis, Tajiks, Barakis (Burkis), Afghans (also known as Pashtuns, Pakhtuns or Pathans), Hazaras, and Negudaris.
Moreover, on the languages and dialects spoken in Kabul, Babur observes that, ‘Eleven or twelve dialects are spoken in Kabul Province: Arabic, Persian, Turkish, Mongolian, Hindi, Afghani [Pashto or Pakhto], Pashai, Parachi, Gabari, Baraki, and Lamghani [Laghmani]. It is not known if there are so many different peoples and languages in any other province.’
Kabul was home to a thriving Christian Armenian community. The Armenians of Kabul had their own church inside Old Kabul, and their own cemetery. Similarly, the Jews of Kabul had their own quarter and synagogue. Hindus, Sikhs, Armenians, and Jews were involved in commerce between Kabul and the surrounding regions.
Kabul’s magnificent climate also brought ‘so many different peoples’ together. Babur remarks, ‘The climate is excellent. In fact, no place in the world is known to have such a pleasing climate as Kabul… near are regions with both warm and cold climates. Within a day’s ride from Kabul it is possible to reach a place where snow never falls. But within two hours one can go where the snows never melt–except in the rare summer so severe that all snow disappears. Both tropical and cold-weather fruits are abundant in Kabul’s dependencies, and they are nearby.’
Kabul, Afghanistan’s cultural oasis
In the process of bringing so many different peoples together, Kabul has managed to develop its own unique vibrant culture and identity, which, although is different from the rest of Afghanistan at times, has had its influence over other cultures throughout Afghanistan.
Across Afghanistan the amount of love and affection for Kabul is boundless. It is not uncommon to see schools, hotels, restaurants, buses, shops, and other businesses named after Kabul. There is a Pashto saying, ‘Penza rupay por kra, zoy pa Kabul loy kra,’ meaning ‘Borrow five rupees, and raise your son in Kabul,’ in reference to Kabul’s better education, etiquette, and culture.
Kabul was home to Afghanistan’s first modern boys’ school, first modern girls’ school, first teachers’ training college, first university, first radio and television stations, first train, first museum, and first airport, among other things. In the 1940s, for the first time in Afghanistan’s history, Radio Kabul allowed female singers to sing, and broadcast their songs.
Twice over the past century—once in the 1920s and again in the 1950s—Kabul pioneered giving Afghan girls and women the right to education and work, and the right to not cover their faces, if they so wished. Although rural conservatives were uncomfortable with the above reforms, other Afghan cities such as Kandahar and Herat imitated Kabul.
The Afghan Royal Family during the Nadir Shah and Zahir Shah eras did not impose any social reforms from Kabul on the rest of the country. Instead, they allowed people outside Kabul to gradually see, understand, and adopt such reforms as girls’ education and removing of the veil, which Kabul had embraced.
Furthermore, Kabul has produced Afghanistan’s top singers such as Ustad Qasem Afghan and Ustad Fazl Ahmad Nainawaz. Kabul has also given birth to Afghanistan’s best contemporary poets such as the poet laureate Qari Abdullah and Sufi Ghulam Nabi Ashqari. In Kabul’s poetic circles, it is common to gather with one’s friends to recite and interpret poems of poets such as Mirza Abdul Qadir Bedil Dehlavi and Maulana Jalaluddin Rumi/Balkhi.
As such, Kabul for centuries has played a role like that of Iran and India, which, while absorbing outsiders and adopting part of their culture, has given the outsiders an indigenous touch and identity. This was as true of early Muslim conquerors and more recently of the Mujahedin, as it was of settlers and immigrants from across the region.
For instance, within months of Ahmad Shah Durrani’s passing in 1772, his son and successor Timur Shah Durrani moved his Empire’s capital from Kandahar to Kabul. Among other reasons, Kabul’s liberal atmosphere and its moderate climate prompted Timur to relocate his capital.
Like Timur Shah, generation after generation of Afghans have flocked to Kabul. Some of those moving in from small towns and villages at first may not feel at ease in Kabul, which may be too liberal for them. But eventually most accept the change, and Kabul becomes their home.
Kabul’s women against foreign occupation
Kabul has led the way in resisting foreign occupation. During the first British invasion (1838-1841) the Afghan uprising, which led to the killing of the British envoy William H. Macnaghten and withdrawal of the British troops, began in Kabul in November 1841. During the withdrawal, an entire 16,500-man British army, consisting of both soldiers and camp followers, was almost entirely annihilated by Ghilzai tribesmen in the mountains and gorges of eastern Kabul.
Women attend a rally in Kabul in the late 1970s. | Imgur via Pinterest
Nearly four decades later, during the Second British invasion of Afghanistan (1878-1881), the Afghans burned down the British Residency at Kabul’s Bala Hisar and killed the British envoy Pierre L. Cavagnari, a second British envoy to be assassinated in Kabul in 38 years.
During both British invasions, Kabul’s girls and women took an active part in the struggle to evict the British. For instance, from rooftops, the women of Kabul would throw stones at, and pour hot water on, passing British soldiers in Kabul’s alleys and streets. Old Kabul’s homes and streets are filled with the tales of Kabul’s women’s struggle against British invaders.
Likewise, a century later, weeks into the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, in late February 1980, the residents of Old Kabul, including girls and women, staged a popular uprising against the heavily armed Soviet troops. The uprising started at night with chants of Allah-o-Akbar—in defiance of Soviet-imposed communism—by residents of Kabul from their rooftops.
The next day, clashes between Soviet troops and Kabul residents followed in the streets. The uprising—during which hundreds of Kabul’s residents including teenage schoolgirls like Naheed, Amina, Salma, and Sultana, embraced martyrdom—was brutally suppressed by Soviet troops. While Kabul’s residents made the ultimate sacrifice for Afghanistan’s freedom, the torch of resistance was passed onto other Afghans who would make sure the Soviets left Afghanistan.
Concluding remarks
Even though Kabul and its brave girls and women are going through a dark period right now due to numerous restrictions imposed on them by Taliban fundamentalists, it is my sincere belief that Kabul and its girls and women will once again, sooner rather than later, emerge victorious from these dark and challenging times, and return to living a cheerful life once again.
The Taliban’s categorizing the girls and women of Kabul as impious and imposing restrictions on them is in line with the offensive descriptions of the girls and women of Kabul which former British colonial chroniclers have provided. It is interesting to see that the Taliban have found more common ground with the British than with fellow Afghans.
The Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s preferring to stay in Kandahar can be because he fears being “polluted,” absorbed, and made irrelevant by Kabul. That said, if the Taliban survive, Kabul will conquer them—just like it conquered the Mujahedin. In Kabul the Taliban will metamorphose into a more lenient movement, should they survive the test of time and sanity.
The writer is Arwin Rahi, a former adviser to the Parwan governor in Afghanistan. He can be reached at [email protected].
Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.
Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.
The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.
The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.
Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.
The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.
Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.
The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.
Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.
The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.
Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.
Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.
Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.
According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.
This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.
The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:
“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”
Iran is operating a covert, barter-like trade mechanism to bypass sanctions on its oil sales and procure billions of dollars in goods from China, including military hardware.
Speaking to the Reuters news agency, two senior Iranian officials and three sources closely monitoring the matter said the Tehran administration receives credits for goods imported from China instead of cash in exchange for the oil it sells to the country.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, emphasised that this method of swapping oil revenues for Chinese goods provides an immediate financial lifeline to the Tehran government at a time when the US has intensified economic and military pressure over its nuclear programme.
China, the world’s largest crude importer, continues to access discounted Iranian oil through this arrangement while shielding its banks and exporting companies from the risk of international penalties.
Although the Washington administration has imposed sanctions on several small-scale Chinese entities facilitating the transport of Iranian oil, it avoids sweeping measures that could shake the global economy.
The US has stepped up its pressure as it seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war between the two countries.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that countries failing to cut commercial ties with Tehran would risk exclusion from the dollar system.
It remains unclear how the barter mechanism has been affected by the US naval blockade imposed on Iran as part of the six-month-old war.
However, since the reimposition of the blockade on 14 July, no shipments of Iranian oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz to China have been recorded.
Beijing and Tehran, which describe Western unilateral sanctions as illegal, refrain from disclosing publicly how they sustain their trade.
Sources state that Tehran introduced this system to obtain pharmaceuticals, vehicles, and communications equipment. Chinese manufacturers are said to have no direct contact with Iran, and there is no indication that they are violating sanctions.
On the other hand, the mechanism was utilised at least once last year under contracts supplying Iran with millions of dollars’ worth of air defence equipment. The sources provided no details regarding the shipments in question, and the transactions were not independently verified.
The United Nations conventional arms embargo returned alongside other sanctions in September 2025 following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers.
Tehran had withdrawn from the terms of the agreement, while Beijing and Tehran described the European nations’ automatic reimposition of sanctions as legally flawed.
Responding to questions from Reuters, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had no knowledge of the trade structure in question.
Beijing stated that it opposes unilateral sanctions lacking United Nations Security Council authorisation and having no basis in international law.
Iran’s diplomatic missions in New York and Geneva remained silent on the inquiries. A US official speaking on behalf of the White House stated only that they are working with international partners, including the EU, to prevent Tehran from achieving its nuclear goals.
According to data analytics company Kpler, China purchased more than 80% of the crude oil exported by Iran in 2025. This share equates to an average of 1.4 million barrels per day.
Although the two countries signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement in 2021 covering energy and infrastructure, the operational details of their cooperation remain largely confidential.
The model in question constitutes only one of the networks through which Iran procures goods and services from China without passing through international banking channels.
A Western official and two other individuals tracking the matter said that a buyer acting on behalf of state-owned Chinese oil company Zhuhai Zhenrong deposited hundreds of millions of dollars each month until this year into ChuXin, a shadow financial entity based in China.
These deposits reportedly represent payment for oil purchased from a Hong Kong-based company linked to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
Approximately 70% of the oil revenues routed through ChuXin is allocated to infrastructure projects in Iran. The remainder is transferred to the accounts of a special purpose vehicle (SPV) established to disburse payments to companies supplying goods to Iran.
Sources close to Iran’s decision-making apparatus confirm the existence of this financial mechanism.
Fund management is shared between a firm acting on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and another entity linked to the Central Bank of Iran. When the Central Bank of Iran authorises importers, money transfers are directed to supplier firms. While the name ChuXin does not appear in official records, one source noted that the structure exists solely on balance sheets.
Andrea Ghiselli, an international politics specialist at the University of Exeter, stated that Beijing uses these indirect networks to demonstrate that it will not bow to US secondary sanction threats.
Highlighting that Chinese leaders aim to protect their own banks and firms from being pushed out of the global financial system, Ghiselli said: “They want to create deniability.”
China’s Ministry of Finance will lead a total capital injection of $54 billion into state-owned insurance companies and banks as part of a coordinated push to reinforce the capital structure across the country’s financial system, according to details disclosed by the institutions in statements on Sunday.
China Life Insurance (Group) Co, the country’s largest life insurer, will receive 35 billion yuan ($5.2 billion) in capital support, whilst China Taiping Insurance Group will receive 7 billion yuan.
In a separate announcement, People’s Insurance Company (Group) of China (PICC) said it plans to raise up to 15 billion yuan via a private placement of A-shares to the Ministry of Finance. The company stated that the proceeds will be used to replenish its capital.
The initiative could fortify the financial position of state insurers, which have been called upon to support the equity market with medium- and long-term funds. At the same time, it could position these institutions to help regulatory authorities manage smaller and higher-risk insurance companies.
Financial sector stability
China’s insurance industry has been contending with shrinking profitability caused by prolonged low interest rates. Solvency ratios across numerous small and medium-sized insurers have also deteriorated.
China Export and Credit Insurance Corp stated that the Ministry of Finance will inject 10 billion yuan to boost the company’s core capital. China Reinsurance (Group) announced that it will execute a capital increase of 3 billion yuan.
“The capital injection represents an important step for enhancing the financial sector’s capacity to serve the real economy and promoting high-quality development across the financial and insurance industries,” China Life said in a statement. The insurer added that the capital support will improve the group’s resilience to risks.
Taiping also noted that the funds provided will strengthen the company’s solvency and other core metrics.
Banks benefit from recapitalisation plan
Separately, three state banks announced on Sunday that they will receive capital support totalling 290 billion yuan.
The recapitalisation framework was first announced during the annual parliamentary meetings in March this year. The move broadens a funding mechanism deployed last year to strengthen the capital structures of several other major state-owned lenders.
Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), two of the country’s largest state-owned lenders, announced plans to raise up to 160 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan, respectively, through private placements of A-shares to the Ministry of Finance, China National Tobacco Corp, and affiliated entities.
Both lenders confirmed that all net proceeds will be deployed to replenish their Core Tier 1 capital. The measure is expected to help sustain credit expansion at a juncture when Beijing is increasingly relying on state lenders to support economic growth.
Weak credit demand remains a persistent headwind for the world’s second-largest economy, while continuing to erode profitability across the banking sector.
Export-Import Bank of China, one of the country’s three policy banks, stated that the Ministry of Finance will inject 30 billion yuan of capital into the institution, thereby bolstering its capital base.
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