Following the detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while the German government issued statements, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), an influential German think tank, made a significant statement.
The Türkiye articles published in a special issue of DGAP’s journal, Internationale Politik (IP), indicate that Ankara is an “indispensable partner” for Berlin, even if it is “unpredictable.”
The articles point out that Türkiye has grown significantly in terms of power and influence over the last twenty years, particularly highlighting developments in armament and military capabilities.
IP notes that Türkiye has intervened in Azerbaijan and Libya, and also has troops in Qatar and Somalia, adding that the Turkish navy is used in the Mediterranean in the dispute with Cyprus.
Cooperation with Türkiye is particularly important for EU member states because, although the country is in close cooperation with Russia, it also “definitively positions itself” against Moscow in regions where Turkish and Russian efforts to gain influence overlap.
Günter Seufert, an IP writer, states that Türkiye participates in NATO activities aimed at limiting Russia’s influence in the Black Sea region, saying, “It supports moves to control the airspace over Romania, and Turkish troops are part of the new NATO Battle Group in Bulgaria.”
Seufert also reminds that Türkiye supplied Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles to Ukraine, emphasizing that Baykar is currently building a factory in Ukraine for drone production, while the new Bayraktar Akıncı drone model uses Ukrainian engines.
The author also suggests that Türkiye is intensifying its cooperation with “Turkic-speaking states” in Central Asia, which Russia traditionally sees as its close sphere of influence, helping some of these states to now “take independent positions from Russia in regional conflicts.”
In another article, author Hürcan Aslı Aksoy notes that, in addition to trying to use Türkiye in the power struggle against Russia, Germany and the EU benefit from Türkiye’s role as a trade center, especially as an energy hub.
The IP writer notes that Türkiye wants to further strengthen its foreign trade and position itself as “a logistical center for international value chains with its huge infrastructure projects in the transportation sector.”
At this point, Türkiye is particularly striving to “become an important place in regional energy trade” and to make itself “indispensable as an energy corridor for the supply of oil and natural gas to Europe from the resource-rich countries of Central Asia and the Middle East.”
In addition, it is pointed out that Ankara continues to be of great importance for the EU’s “refugee defense.”
According to IP, Türkiye moves “multi-dimensionally and confidently” with all kinds of cooperation partners “without sticking to a specific camp,” which means that Germany and the EU can no longer “dictate” certain things to Türkiye, which now has alternatives.
Seufert states that when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the country in October 2023, “we witnessed a shift in German policy from the normative to the pragmatic.”
Seufert therefore argues that “Europe’s influence over Türkiye” is rapidly decreasing and that future negotiations will “probably” be conducted “on equal terms.”
Therefore, although the German government is showing harsh reactions at the level of discourse to İmamoğlu’s detention, it does not appear to be threatening “sanctions” as in previous years. Indeed, the cover of IP’s special issue emphasizes that Türkiye, as a “partner,” may be “unpredictable,” but is nevertheless “indispensable.”