The United States plans to significantly cut the military forces and capabilities it allocates to NATO operations in Europe, according to reports.

According to a report by The New York Times, which cited two European officials and an official document sent to allies in early June, the prepared plan involves a serious reduction in military presence.

Under the plan, the Washington administration aims to reduce the number of F-16 and F-15E fighter jets it keeps ready for NATO operations in Europe from approximately 150 to 100.

In addition, the plan entails reducing the number of maritime patrol and intelligence aircraft in the region from 26 to 15, and completely withdrawing all eight tanker aircraft previously assigned to the European theater.

The military reduction plan is not limited to aerial assets. The US also reportedly aims to redeploy an aircraft carrier, a missile-equipped nuclear submarine, and their accompanying support ships and air assets from the region to another theater.

Furthermore, the relocation of one of the two strategic bomber groups dedicated to Europe’s defense is envisioned.

According to the newspaper, these decisions, which are expected to take effect soon, will directly impact the alliance’s capabilities in intelligence gathering, tracking Russian submarines, and conducting long-range strikes.

While the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) avoided commenting on specific figures regarding the matter, it limited its response to referencing a recent statement by the US European Command (EUCOM) regarding its intention to review the volume of American commitments in the region.

The New York Times noted that this decision is linked to US President Donald Trump’s administration’s policy of reducing the military presence in Europe and shifting a portion of resources to the Indo-Pacific region.

However, the report also emphasized that despite the planned reductions, the US will continue to maintain one of the largest NATO military footprints on the European continent.

The German magazine Der Spiegel had also reported in late May, citing its own sources, that the US planned to reduce the military forces and capabilities it provides to the alliance.

According to Spiegel’s report, Washington wishes to decrease its participation under NATO’s “Force Model,” which was agreed upon in 2022.

In this process, it is reported that while the US will maintain its participation in Europe’s nuclear deterrence system, European allies are expected to assume the primary responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense.

The report also noted that Washington is increasing pressure on its European partners to develop their own military capabilities more rapidly and reduce their dependence on American support.

An earlier analysis in the British magazine The Economist reported that alternative military command mechanisms were being discussed in Europe in preparation for a potential decrease in the US role within the alliance or the possibility of Washington blocking decisions.

The magazine pointed out that a rapid reduction of the US military contribution could complicate plans by European nations to gradually replace American capabilities in areas such as intelligence, communications, and missile defense.

European defense sector shares have begun to decline following a multi-year upward trend, marking a shift for the continent’s major arms manufacturers.

According to a report by the Financial Times, investors are increasingly concerned that European nations will struggle to secure rapid funding to finance their projected large-scale increases in military spending.

Since the beginning of the year, the Stoxx Europe Targeted Defence index, which tracks Europe’s largest defense companies, has fallen by more than 15%. During this period, shares of prominent firms such as BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Thales, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall have remained under pressure.

Following the start of the military campaign in Ukraine, defense industry shares rose rapidly on expectations that governments would actively purchase weapons and expand their defense budgets. However, investors have now grown skeptical about whether these plans can be fully implemented.

Indeed, several states have already encountered difficulties in executing their defense programs. Germany decided to withdraw from a joint fighter jet project with France valued at approximately €100 billion, while Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis indicated that his country might not even be able to reach the current NATO defense spending target of 2%.

Analysts note that investors now want to see concrete contracts, orders, and profit growth from companies, rather than relying solely on promises of budget increases.

Another factor driving the decline in share prices is the shifting nature of warfare. Investors are increasingly pivoting away from manufacturers of tanks and other heavy military vehicles toward companies that produce unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, and advanced military technology.

As a result of this trend, shares of French drone manufacturer Parrot have gained approximately 36% since the start of the year, while shares of Swedish military IT firm MilDef have risen by approximately 60%.

Previous declines in defense stocks

The drop in European defense shares is not without precedent. In August last year, shares experienced a sharp decline following a meeting at the White House between US, Ukrainian, and EU leaders.

In November, shares fell to their lowest level since late August after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated readiness to work on a US-proposed plan to end the conflict.

During that period, the aerospace and defense sector index recorded a 3.3% decline, underperforming the broader Stoxx index, which lost 1%, with German companies experiencing the most significant losses.

Another sharp decline occurred in April this year following US-led strikes against Iran. Despite ongoing conflicts, production delays and uncertainties surrounding military budgets have continued to unnerve investors.

European Commission prepares to increase defense budget

Conversely, in April, the European Commission announced that it would invest €1.07 billion in 57 defense projects designed to support Europe’s core defense capabilities.

Of this funding, €675 million was allocated to 32 initiatives aimed at developing defense capabilities, while €332 million was designated for 25 research projects.

The European Commission stated that these investments will support the goals outlined in the EU’s defense readiness roadmap through 2030 and provide critical funding for four key flagship initiatives.

During the same period, it was reported that the European Commission plans to increase defense spending to at least €131 billion in the new seven-year budget covering the years 2028 to 2034.

Andrius Kubilius, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space, noted that this figure represents an unalterable “absolute minimum.”

The public listing of US aerospace giant SpaceX is exposing a widening chasm between Germany and the American space industry, triggering fresh warnings in Berlin over Europe’s deep strategic dependencies.

According to a report by German Foreign Policy, thin tanks such as the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) have long warned that Germany’s space sector has become “excessively dependent on the US.”

Politicians and defense analysts warn that Washington—particularly under the administration of President Donald Trump—could exploit these critical dependencies to ruthlessly advance unilateral US interests.

In response, the European Union has taken initial steps to mitigate this vulnerability. Last year, Brussels announced a new EU Space Law aimed at harmonizing fragmented national regulations to establish a unified European space single market.

However, Washington strongly opposes the proposed Space Law, fearing it will place American industry giants at a disadvantage.

Independently, the German government is planning a massive €35 billion investment package by 2030, which includes the establishment of a “German Starlink.” Yet, Berlin’s push for absolute national leadership in orbit is increasingly sidelining French defense contractors, exacerbating bilateral tensions within Europe.

Dependencies on the US take center stage in Berlin

In Germany, calls are mounting for the country to aggressively advance its own sovereign space capabilities, using SpaceX as a blueprint.

Fabian Mehring, the Bavarian State Minister for Digital Affairs, declared that the US company’s public listing must serve as a “wake-up call” for Europe.

“Those who do not shape the future themselves will become dependent on those who do,” Mehring warned, arguing that technological superiority translates directly into foreign policy power.

Anxieties regarding the EU’s lagging position in the space race have intensified. In October 2025, Juliana Süß, an expert from the Security Policy Working Group at the SWP, detailed the extent of the EU’s “excessive dependency” on the US space sector.

Süß emphasized that this reliance spans irreplaceable technical components, including the US Global Positioning System (GPS) required to guide Germany’s Taurus cruise missiles, as well as critical capabilities in “reconnaissance, communication, navigation,” and “early missile detection.”

Europe’s reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation has been starkly demonstrated in the Ukraine conflict, where the company deployed approximately 50,000 ground terminals to secure Kyiv’s battle-critical internet connectivity.

In both Berlin and Brussels, concerns have long persisted that the US government, especially under the current administration of President Donald Trump, could leverage these critical dependencies for geopolitical leverage.

Starlink erodes European market share

The rapid expansion of SpaceX and its satellite internet subsidiary, Starlink, poses a direct economic threat to German and European industrial players.

Musk has successfully deployed more than 10,000 communication satellites into Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In the future, the company could compete directly with established terrestrial network operators like Deutsche Telekom on a national scale.

Starlink is already eroding the market share of European aerospace firms in the satellite communications market. In recent years, industry champions such as Airbus and Thales Alenia Space (TAS) have been forced to lay off thousands of workers due to increasingly unprofitable space contracts.

While the EU is actively seeking to protect and stimulate its domestic space sector, its regulatory instruments face stiff resistance. The proposed EU Space Law, introduced in June last year to unify national frameworks, is not expected to enter into force before January 1, 2030.

The draft legislation has already drawn sharp criticism from Washington, which claims the law restricts competition.

In practice, the regulation would impose significant compliance costs on US space enterprises operating within the EU, forcing them to meet strict European technical, cybersecurity, and environmental standards.

Germany’s sovereign space ambitions

To bolster its domestic space capabilities, Germany has significantly increased its financial commitments. Last year, Berlin announced during the European Space Agency (ESA) Council of Ministers meeting that it would raise its contribution to the overall ESA budget to €5 billion.

More crucially, alongside the presentation of its inaugural space security strategy in November 2025, the German government announced it would allocate €35 billion to domestic space initiatives through 2030.

Berlin is currently pursuing several ambitious military space programs. Chief among them is a Bundeswehr plan to develop a proprietary satellite communications network designed to compete directly with Starlink.

Dubbed the “German Starlink,” the project—officially designated SATCOMBw Level 4—envisions a dense constellation of communication satellites operating in Low Earth Orbit at altitudes between 200 and 2,000 kilometers.

The initial phase of the project aims to deploy between 100 and 200 satellites to securely interconnect German troops and military hardware.

Additionally, last December, the German government awarded a €1.7 billion contract to a joint venture between defense contractor Rheinmetall and Finnish satellite startup ICEYE. The program aims to deploy a constellation of 40 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites into orbit by the end of the decade.

SAR satellites provide high-resolution imaging of ground activity under all weather conditions, day or night.

Together, these two major programs are designed to secure the Bundeswehr’s operational independence from US-controlled communication and reconnaissance infrastructure.

Berlin sidelines Paris in orbit

However, Germany’s pursuit of strategic autonomy has triggered friction with its closest European ally, France.

For the SATCOMBw Level 4 “German Starlink” project, Airbus Defence and Space was initially positioned as a leading contender. The company already operates the Bundeswehr’s existing SATCOMBw communication infrastructure, giving it a technical advantage over domestic competitors like Bremen-based OHB.

However, Airbus manufactures its satellites primarily at facilities located in France, whereas Berlin is demanding strict national control over the production and operation of the network.

Major General Armin Fleischmann, who is responsible for the planning and implementation of space projects within the Bundeswehr, confirmed that there is no intention to outsource contracts of this nature abroad.

While Fleischmann acknowledged that certain specialized components would inevitably have to be procured from “Western partners,” including France, the federal government intends to keep this foreign share as minimal as possible.

Consequently, a joint venture between Rheinmetall and Bremen-based OHB is now widely regarded as the finalized prime contractor for the “German Starlink” initiative.

The partnership was officially established on Thursday. While Airbus may still participate in the project, sources indicate it will only be permitted to do so in a secondary, supporting capacity.