Diplomacy
Blinken will travel to China amid concerns of global issues
Ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China, US officials have adopted the tactic of expressing strong concern over China’s support for Russia and the Taiwan issue to put pressure on Beijing. Chinese observers, however, said that the recent frequent visits to China by Blinken and a number of US officials show that Washington cannot solve domestic and global problems without China’s cooperation.
Blinken will meet with senior Chinese officials in both Shanghai and Beijing during his 24-26 April visit, CNN reported on Saturday, citing a senior US State Department official.
Blinken will discuss “a range of bilateral, regional and global issues,” including the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the US State Department said on Saturday.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Blinken would also discuss progress in “resuming counternarcotics cooperation, military-to-military communications, artificial intelligence, and strengthening people-to-people ties” and reaffirm the importance for the United States and China to “responsibly manage competition, even in areas where our countries disagree,” according to media reports.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian welcomed Blinken’s visit at a press briefing on Thursday, but gave no further details.
Tensions remain
Although Sino-US relations have stabilised somewhat since the two leaders met in San Francisco last year, tensions remain. During Blinken’s visit to China, the Philippines and the US will hold the largest Balikatan exercise to date in an area that includes waters China recognises as its sovereign territory. Washington also deployed the Typhon medium-range surface-to-surface missile launcher in the region for the first time, despite Beijing’s objections. China reacted to the deployment of the system and the exercise, which came very close to it.
The trilateral and bilateral summits of the US, Japan and the Philippines at the White House in mid-April targeted China’s influence in the region while taking historic decisions on trilateral military and defence cooperation. Beijing sees the expansion of the US military and intelligence presence in the region through its Asian allies as an attempt to “contain” it, while Washington opposes it.
Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday that the purpose of Blinken’s visit was to implement the consensus of the two leaders, but given the so-called focus points announced by the US administration, it is possible that the visit will widen differences and create more negative factors.
Lü cited as an example the annual joint military exercises between Philippine and US forces, which are believed to be aimed at China.
During his visit, Blinken will also reportedly ask Beijing to refrain from “provocative” actions during next month’s swearing-in ceremony for Lai Ching-te, who was elected Taiwan’s regional leader in January, AFP quoted a US official as saying.
Chinese experts say the Biden administration is trying to “show some teeth” on global issues because of the upcoming US presidential election, but also because Biden wants to stabilise relations with China to avoid possible incidents that could harm his election chances.
Aid package for Ukraine
CNN quoted a US State Department official as saying on Saturday that Blinken plans to “reiterate our deep concerns about the PRC’s support for Russia’s defence industrial base, as well as its human rights abuses and unfair economic and trade practices”.
The US House of Representatives on Saturday approved billions of dollars in new US military aid to Ukraine. The foreign aid package passed on Saturday also includes military support for Israel and funding for allies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the island of Taiwan.
According to Chinese experts, after overcoming the obstacles to sending aid to Ukraine, Washington will inevitably focus on blocking China’s trade with Russia. China will face a new challenge from the United States in defending its sovereignty in foreign trade, they said, while Washington should be aware that it has few tools to pressure China on this issue.
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
Diplomacy
IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.
Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.
In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”
Tenreyro added:
“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.
Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.
US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.
This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.
Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.
Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.
The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.
However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.
The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.
The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.
According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.
These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.
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