European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took a significant step last Friday by signing a landmark trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur.

“Today is truly a historic milestone,” von der Leyen stated after summit talks with the leaders of Mercosur in Montevideo, Uruguay.

The agreement focuses on reducing trade barriers. Tariffs on 91% of products traded between the EU and Mercosur will be gradually eliminated. According to European Commission calculations, this will result in annual savings of approximately €4 billion for European exporters.

South America has a competitive edge in agricultural raw materials and resources critical for climate transformation, while Europe specializes in supplying cars, machinery, and chemical products.

The EU is Mercosur’s second-largest trading partner after China, accounting for 15% of the bloc’s trade volume, compared to China’s 24% share.

Recently, trade volume for goods between the EU and Mercosur reached approximately €110 billion, representing about 2% of the EU’s total foreign trade.

The agreement, negotiated over 25 years, would establish a free trade zone encompassing more than 750 million people. However, it faces strong opposition from France, which fears cheap poultry and beef imports could harm its farmers.

Mercosur imposes some of the world’s highest external tariffs 35% on cars, 14-18% on car parts, 14-20% on machinery, and 18% on chemicals.

Under the agreement, 91% of these tariffs will be abolished, while the EU will eliminate 92% of its own import duties.

The EU also anticipates significant benefits from enhanced access to state infrastructure tenders and expanded market access in sectors like postal and logistics services, telecommunications, and finance.

In contrast to France, Germany has welcomed the deal. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) President Siegfried Russwurm hailed the agreement as a much-needed boost for German and European economies.

As of 2023, German exports to Mercosur totaled approximately $16 billion, leading EU countries. Germany’s exports are followed by those of Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France. Customs reductions could save German companies €400-500 million annually. According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), 12,500 German companies export to Mercosur, with 72% being small and medium-sized enterprises. These exports support 244,000 jobs in Germany.

This agreement, which von der Leyen failed to secure during her first term, represents a major geopolitical victory as she embarks on her second term.

The deal aims to deepen ties between the EU and Mercosur members Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia, amid rising global trade tensions.

At a joint press conference, von der Leyen emphasized: “We are sending a clear and strong message. We are showing that democracies can trust each other in an increasingly confrontational world. This agreement is not only an economic opportunity; it is also a political necessity.”

The visit of von der Leyen and EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič to Uruguay to finalize the deal sparked unrest in France, where the government had fallen just hours earlier.

France is expected to intensify its opposition but will need to expand its coalition, which already includes Poland, Austria, and Ireland, to block the deal’s ratification.

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas stated: “France’s voice remains strong in Europe. We are not alone in opposing Mercosur in its current form. We can achieve a blocking minority.”

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña plans to visit France to convince President Emmanuel Macron to support the agreement. Meanwhile, Italy’s stance remains undecided, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signaling conditional approval based on guarantees and compensation for the agricultural sector in the event of market imbalances.

As a major EU member, Italy’s decision could significantly impact the agreement’s fate.

The conclusion of political negotiations marks an important milestone for the EU-Mercosur agreement. However, the process is far from complete.

The finalized text will be published next week, allowing EU member states to express their views. It must undergo legal scrutiny and translation, which could take months.

To expedite the process, Brussels may separate the trade chapter from the political and cooperation pillar. This approach, if adopted, would require approval only from the EU Council and Parliament, bypassing the need for unanimity among member states.

Alternatively, full ratification of the agreement would require a qualified majority in the Council of Ministers (at least 15 countries representing 65% of the EU population). The political and cooperation pillar would require ratification by all national parliaments, potentially delaying implementation for years.

Europe is on the brink of a deep crisis caused by the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. More than 1,000 days into the war, thousands of people in Ukraine have lost their lives, cities have been destroyed and millions left homeless.

But the conflict is no longer just a problem between the two countries. Experts say that increasing arms supplies and political moves could lead to a wider war across Europe.

Tensions escalated when the U.S. provided Ukraine with long-range missiles capable of striking Russia, followed by similar moves by Britain and France. Germany is reportedly planning to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

But there are serious warnings that these moves could increase the risk of Germany becoming a direct party to the war. Experts stress that this could mean retaliation from Russia.

A group of 38 peace activists recently published an statement entitled ‘One Minute to Go — Prevent a Great European War’.

"Appell der 38" – Ich teile den Aufruf von Sahra #Wagenknecht und Alice #Schwarzer, den auch der frühere SPD-Innenminister Otto Schily unterschrieben hat, in dem sie vor einer Verlängerung des #Ukraine-Krieges durch weitere Waffen und einer Ausweitung bis hin zu einem…

— Sevim Dağdelen, MdB (@SevimDagdelen) December 4, 2024

The signatories include historians, political scientists, artists, lawyers, and former ministers. The group makes an open appeal to political actors in Germany and European countries to start peace negotiations to avert the risk of nuclear war.

The statement reads as follows “No side can emerge victorious from this war. If the guns don’t fall silent, we will all lose.”

The statement stresses that arms aid only prolongs the war and that a ceasefire should be declared immediately, and negotiations should begin.

The peace group stresses that the peace plans promoted by countries such as Brazil and China could serve as an example. It also calls on Germany to be more cautious in its war policy.

Among the signatories of the text are the following names:

• Prof Dr Peter Brandt, historian, and broadcaster

• Reiner Braun, peace movement

• Andrea Breth, theatre director

• Prof Dr Christoph Butterwegge, political scientist

• Prof Dr Wolfgang Däubler, jurist

• Daniela Dahn, author

• Dr Petra Erler, advertising executive

• Dr Svenja Flaßpöhler, philosopher

• Dr Hajo Funke, political scientist

• Dr Peter Gauweiler, lawyer and former minister of the Bavarian state government (CSU)

• Wolfgang Grupp, businessman

• Dr Michael Hartmann, sociologist

• Henry Hübchen, actor

• Dr Elisa Hoven, criminal lawyer

• Dr Hans Joas, member of the SPD Commission for Basic Values

• Reinhard Klimmt, former minister (SPD)

• Uwe Kockisch, actor

• Prof Dr Gabriele Krone-Schmalz, publisher

• Oskar Lafontaine, former Prime Minister

• Detlef Malchow, entrepreneur

• Prof Dr Reinhard Merkel, philosopher of law

• Dr Hans Misselwitz, member of the SPD Commission for Basic Values

• Albrecht Müller, Publisher/NachDenkSeiten (SPD)

• Michael Müller, Friends of Nature Germany

• Willy van Ooyen, Peace Movement

• Dr Frauke Rostalski, philosopher of law

• Oliver Ruhnert has been a football manager for a long time (BSW)

• Dr Otto Schily, former Federal Minister of the Interior

• Michael von der Schulenburg, Member of the European Parliament (BSW) and former UN Deputy Secretary-General

• Alice Schwarzer, writer, and editor-in-chief of EMMA magazine

• Prof Dr Wolfgang Streeck, sociologist

• Günter Verheugen, former Vice-President of the European Commission

• Dr Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW President

• Dr Nathalie Weidenfeld, cultural scientist

• Hans-Eckardt Wenzel, singer-songwriter

• Katarina Witt, athlete

• Natascha Wodin, writer

• Dr Juli Zeh, author

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced during the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels that German troops might be deployed to Ukraine if a sustainable ceasefire is achieved. Baerbock emphasized that the presence of foreign troops along the border could serve as a significant security guarantee for Ukraine in addition to its potential NATO membership, according to Die Welt newspaper.

She further underscored that any initiative aimed at resolving the conflict would receive support from all parties within the German government.

In a related statement, European Union (EU) Foreign Affairs Representative Kaja Kallas indicated that European armies could be sent to Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement. Kallas noted that troops might come from countries such as France, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

At the end of November, the French newspaper Le Monde reported ongoing EU discussions about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stressed that the EU must prepare for such a scenario, particularly if US President-elect Donald Trump leads ceasefire negotiations.

The idea of deploying Western troops to Ukraine was initially raised earlier this year by French President Emmanuel Macron. He stipulated that any deployment would require substantial progress on the front lines and an official request from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Russia has responded critically to these proposals. The Foreign Intelligence Organisation (SVR) claimed that Western powers are plotting to freeze the conflict in Ukraine before launching an invasion under the guise of a “peacekeeping” mission. The SVR alleged that regions of Ukraine have already been “divided” among potential occupying forces, with Romania taking the Black Sea coast, Poland the western regions, Germany the central and eastern areas, and Britain the northern regions, including Kyiv.

The SVR suggested that a total of 100,000 “peacekeepers” could be deployed to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted in June that Western military trainers and advisers are already present in Ukraine, signaling the West’s growing involvement in the conflict.