MIDDLE EAST
‘Ceasefire’ diplomacy accelerates in Gaza: ‘Gaza without Hamas’ plan under discussion

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan traveled to Israel with an agenda focused on a potential ceasefire and prisoner swap in Gaza. His diplomatic mission also included visits to Egypt and Qatar, reflecting the growing urgency of efforts to address the escalating crisis.
The Times of Israel reported that Sullivan’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials represents a final push by the Joe Biden administration, which will leave office on 20 January, to negotiate a prisoner swap and establish a ceasefire in Gaza.
Photographs released by the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office showed senior ministers in attendance, along with Ronen Bar, head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet (Shabak); David Barnea, director of the foreign intelligence agency Mossad; and Gal Hirsch, coordinator of the Prisoners and Missing Persons File. The high-level meeting underscores the critical importance of these discussions.
A Western diplomat in the region informed Reuters that Israel is nearing an agreement with the militant Palestinian group Hamas, but the deal would be narrowly scoped—involving the release of only a small number of hostages and a brief pause in hostilities.
The proposed ceasefire hinges on the Egyptian plan for a ‘Gaza without Hamas’ strategy. This plan includes a truce lasting one to two months, during which hostages would be gradually released, prolonged talks without military pressure on the ground, swift reopening of the Rafah border crossing under Palestinian Authority and Egyptian supervision, and Hamas would be required to provide a list of living hostages within several days.
Under this framework, Israel would retain veto power over individuals crossing into Egypt. In return, Cairo would secure a Palestinian commitment ensuring Hamas would not control the border crossing or Gaza itself “during the coming period.”
Hamas has reportedly accepted the plan on the condition that Gaza’s administration be handed over to a committee of local Palestinians. Egyptian officials have communicated this proposal to Israel, with Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visiting Egypt recently. Separately, Mossad Director David Barnea held talks in Doha with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Thani.
Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz conveyed to U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin during a phone call that there is a tangible chance for an agreement to free hostages, including U.S. citizens. On 4 December, Katz expressed optimism, stating, “This time we really have a chance to make a prisoner swap with Hamas.”
In parallel, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump demanded Hamas release all hostages in Gaza, warning, “Otherwise, the Middle East will turn into hell.”
Meanwhile, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly adopted a resolution yesterday evening calling for an immediate, inclusive, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, along with the unconditional release of hostages. The resolution, submitted by Palestine, was passed with 158 ‘yes’ votes, 9 ‘no’ votes, and 13 abstentions out of the 193-member General Assembly.
MIDDLE EAST
US quietly withdraws troops from Syria to Iraq

According to a report by Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen television, the US military has begun evacuating some of its military bases in northeastern Syria, transferring personnel and equipment to Iraq.
This development follows the agreement signed on March 10 between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) interim administration and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which stipulates the integration of SDF forces into the Syrian army. According to the report, after the agreement, the US began removing some military bases in northeastern Syria from mid-March, quietly transferring equipment and personnel to Iraq.
Specifically, it was reported that some US soldiers at the Vezir Base in the western countryside of Hasakah and in the city of Shaddadi were transferred by helicopters to US bases within the borders of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government.
In addition, it was reported that the American military presence in regions such as the Conoco gas field, Yeşilköy, and the Ömer oil field has decreased. It was stated that military vehicles and personnel were transported to the Shaddadi base before shipment and sent to Iraq from there.
Al-Mayadeen’s report, based on field observations, stated that US helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles have been conducting intense flights in the Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah, and Qamishli regions in recent days. It was also noted that some helicopters accompanied military convoys traveling from Hasakah to the IKBY from the air.
This development comes both after the “integration” agreement signed between HTS and the SDF, and at a time when allegations have been made that Türkiye and Israel are holding talks for a “non-conflict agreement” to prevent a possible escalation in Syria.
The US administration has not yet made an official statement regarding reducing its military presence in Syria or the withdrawal process. Al-Mayadeen wrote that SDF sources also stated that they had not received any official notification from the US.
MIDDLE EAST
Hezbollah open to disarmament talks if Israel ceases attacks, withdraws

Hezbollah has indicated it might consider disarming if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and ceases its attacks, according to recent reports.
As calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament in Lebanon intensify, a senior Hezbollah official told Reuters that the organization is ready to discuss disarmament with the Lebanese President if Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and halts its attacks.
Three Lebanese political sources noted that US-backed President Joseph Aoun pledged to ensure full state control of weapons when he assumed office in January and plans to begin discussions with Hezbollah on this matter soon.
Discussions about disarmament have gained momentum following last year’s conflict with Israel and the shifting power dynamics resulting from the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Hezbollah.
According to Reuters, “Hezbollah was significantly weakened in the 2024 conflict with Israel; it lost senior leaders and thousands of fighters, and a large portion of its rocket arsenal was destroyed.” The report summarized the situation as follows:
A senior Hezbollah official stated that the organization is prepared to discuss its weapons within the context of a national defense strategy, contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from five points in southern Lebanon.
The official told Reuters, “If Israel withdraws from the five points and ceases its attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah is ready to discuss disarmament.”
During the war, Israel conducted a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and largely withdrew after a ceasefire. However, in February, Israel decided not to abandon five strategic points, stating it would hand over these positions to Lebanese forces once the security situation allowed.
Despite a ceasefire in effect since November, Israeli airstrikes continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Washington demands Hezbollah’s disarmament and is preparing for nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Hezbollah has been regarded as Iran’s most powerful armed group in the region, but the ousting of Assad has disrupted its supply lines to Iran.
Reuters reported on Monday that some Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are considering disarming for the first time to avoid escalating conflict with the US.
Hezbollah has long rejected calls for disarmament from its opponents in Lebanon, asserting that its weapons are necessary to defend the country against Israel. These deep divisions led to a brief civil war in 2008.
Opponents argue that Hezbollah unilaterally drags the country into conflicts and that its large arsenal, operating outside state control, undermines state authority.
The US-brokered ceasefire stipulates the removal of all unauthorized military installations and the collection of weapons, starting from south of the Litani River.
Two sources close to Hezbollah said the organization is considering handing over its most effective weapons, such as drones and anti-tank missiles north of the Litani River, to the army.
President Aoun has stated that Hezbollah’s weapons can only be addressed through dialogue, as forced disarmament could trigger a new conflict.
Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai stated last week that all weapons should be under state control but emphasized that this requires time and diplomacy, adding that “Lebanon cannot afford another war.”
A Lebanese official said that communication channels have been opened with relevant stakeholders to “begin work on transferring weapons to state control” after the army and security forces expand state authority throughout Lebanon, noting that this is a move to implement Aoun’s policy.
The official added that the issue was also discussed with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a key ally of Hezbollah, who plays a crucial role in resolving differences.
During her visit to Beirut over the weekend, US Representative Morgan Ortagus reiterated Washington’s position, stating that Hezbollah and other armed groups should be disarmed as soon as possible and that this task falls to the Lebanese army.
In an interview with Lebanon’s LBCI television on April 6, Ortagus said, “It is clear that Hezbollah must be disarmed. It is also clear that Israel will not tolerate terrorists attacking its territory. This is a position we understand.”
Minister Kamal Shehadi, a member of the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, stated that some ministers have requested a timeline for disarmament. Speaking to Reuters, Shehadi said that the process should not exceed six months, similar to the period applied to the disarmament of militias after the civil war.
He stated that a timeline-based approach, which sets a specific end date for the process, is “the only way to protect citizens from the recurrence of attacks that cause loss of life, economic damage, and destruction.”
The latest conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in October 2023 in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war.
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a speech on March 29 that the group no longer has an armed presence south of the Litani River and is adhering to the ceasefire, but that Israel is “violating it every day.” Israel claims that Hezbollah still maintains military infrastructure in the south.
Hezbollah argues that the responsibility for Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of attacks lies with the Lebanese state. Qassem noted that there is still time for diplomatic solutions, but if Israel does not comply with an agreement, “the resistance is ready” and may resort to “other options.”
MIDDLE EAST
Türkiye, Israel reportedly negotiate Syrian de-confliction line

According to claims, Türkiye and Israel are negotiating a mechanism to prevent direct conflict in Syria amid rising tensions. It is alleged that the parties are considering establishing a communication line.
Türkiye and Israel, seeking to increase their influence in Syria after the end of the Bashar al-Assad administration, are reportedly in contact to establish a de-confliction line to prevent mutual misunderstandings or direct conflict. According to Western officials speaking to Middle East Eye, these talks gained momentum after Israel bombed the T4 airbase, where Türkiye wanted to deploy.
The report states that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes progress has been made on a de-confliction arrangement with Türkiye after the attacks, and that negotiations are ongoing. It was noted that Netanyahu is particularly insistent that no armed elements, including the Turkish military presence, be present in the southern regions of Syria.
Another source confirmed that direct contact was established between Ankara and Tel Aviv after the attacks on the T4 base, and that these contacts aimed to establish a de-confliction line. The source commented, “Immediately after the attacks, Turkish and Israeli officials said they did not want to clash with each other, using similar expressions. These statements seemed coordinated.”
It is suggested that Israel may remain silent or even accept the establishment of Turkish military bases in Hama and Palmyra, even if it uses harsh rhetoric in public. The same source argued that the US also favors reducing tensions in the region and therefore indirectly supports the process.
Sources speaking to Middle East Eye claimed that Netanyahu informed his counterparts that he had “limited time to attack the T4 base before Türkiye started to deploy militarily.” According to this, Netanyahu said that “after Türkiye enters, the base will be closed to Israeli operations.” The report stated, “The Turkish army being attacked by Israel, even by mistake, would carry the risk of triggering a major conflict. However, bringing air defense systems to the bases would also deter Israeli planes from operating in the region.”
Immediately after the air strikes, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ankara of trying to establish a “protectorate regime” in Syria. Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also said that he had “warned” Syrian President and HTŞ leader Abu Ahmed Shara about “enemy forces.”
Despite Israel’s harsh messages after the T4 attack, signals of softening were later given from both Türkiye and Israel. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a statement to Reuters that Türkiye has no intention of direct military conflict with Israel. Similar statements came from senior Israeli officials as well.
Netanyahu, in a meeting with US President Donald Trump, stated that Israel does not want conflict with Türkiye on Syrian territory and that they discussed steps to eliminate this risk with Trump. Netanyahu pointed to Trump’s good relations with President Erdoğan, suggesting that Washington could play a mediating role.
Trump also said in the meeting, “If you have a problem with Türkiye, I believe I can solve it. I hope it won’t be necessary.” Trump, who referred to Erdoğan as “my great friend,” made remarkable statements for Erdoğan: “He achieved what no one has done for 2000 years, he took Syria.”
The normalization process between Türkiye and Israel, which began in mid-2023, was interrupted by the large-scale military operation launched by Israel in Gaza on October 7.
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